Week 10, 2020, Pats vs Ravens

Tough one coming up Sunday night. Turnovers could be key.
Ravens are 7 point favorites.

The Ravens are touchdown favorites over the host New England Patriots ahead of their game Sunday night, according to Las Vegas sportsbooks.

After a 24-10 road win Sunday over the Indianapolis Colts, the Ravens (6-2) are favored by seven points over New England (3-5). The Patriots ended a four-game losing streak Monday night with a narrow 30-27 victory over the Joe Flacco-led and still-winless New York Jets.

The Ravens are undefeated in road games this season, while New England has been uneven at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots opened the season with a 21-11 win over the Miami Dolphins before routing the Las Vegas Raiders two weeks later, 36-20, in Foxborough, Massachusetts. But they lost to the visiting Denver Broncos, 18-12, and San Francisco 49ers, 33-6, last month.

Sunday’s game will mark the second matchup between former NFL Most Valuable Players Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson, but their first as starters. In October 2018, Newton (21-for-29 for 219 yards and three total touchdowns) outdueled Flacco (22-for-39 for 192 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions) as the Carolina Panthers rolled to a 36-21 win.

Jackson is 11-3-1 against the spread in road games as a starter, according to CBS Sports. The Ravens have won their past 10 regular-season games when favored by six or more points, while New England is 0-3 this season as an underdog.

The Patriots lead the all-time series 10-4, but the Ravens ended a three-game losing streak last year with a 37-20 home win in prime time over then-undefeated New England. The Ravens have won twice on the road in the series, but never in the regular season.

The over/under for Sunday’s game is 41½ points.

 
Yeah he was much better than I thought he would be. I laughed at Check Down Joe before the game started.

But I dumbly assumed the Pats defense was a bit better than it was.
 
Yeah he was much better than I thought he would be. I laughed at Check Down Joe before the game started.

But I dumbly assumed the Pats defense was a bit better than it was.
Crowder, Perriman, and Mims make a pretty solid group of WRs for him. Mims seems pretty promising in his limited action so far (3 games). Perriman's nothing special, but he isn't bad to have as WR3 if Mims keeps improving and locks down WR2.
 
The Ravens are probably too much for us at this point. I will say that they seemed to miss Marshall Yanda, who was a beast of a guard that retired, earlier in the year and they have since lost Stanley, their excellent LT, so the holes might not be the same on that left side but solid effort isn't enough to offset our injuries and losses to the front 7. Baltimore can run inside or outside and we can't defend either of those things very well at the moment. I'll expect a shitshow.

One thing I'll be watching with curiousity is if Jakobi's big night versus the Jets might make somebody decide to pay more attention to him and open up a little bit of space for somebody else.

It is simple things like that that can spark an offense and I'd like to see Byrd, who has been pretty steady, get more touches and get James White involved early and often. If we can actually be effective running inside on them then I'll be surprised. Brandon Williams is like a black hole in the middle of their DL and not even light can escape him, nevermind Rex Burkhead. He has also been a guy that David Andrews has struggled against in the past. Much like a compact car getting engulfed by a mudslide.

I'd like to see some new wrinkles. Run a bunch formation for a change. Send Zuber deep. If Ford plays then try to use him or, god forbid, see if you can spring Gunner downfield. He's fast enough and pretty tough, so I fail to understand why he never gets a sniff beyond screens and jet sweeps. Stop throwing the ball to Jakob Johnson, please. I think we've seen what he can do and it's not helpful.

This should be a game where we say fuck it and run some gadgets. Oh, and MORE PLAY ACTION.
 
I think the only chance is ball control. take your time going down field, slow and methodical. If we don't put some first downs together the D is done by halftime.
 

Lamar Jackson dealt with a knee injury during the week but was healthy enough to play against the Bengals in Week 5. Even if he was 100 percent, the Bengals didn’t give him any space to run by surprising the Ravens with a defense that they didn’t expect to see. The Bengals, ranked 17th in run defense DVOA (football outsider’s efficiency metric) before they played the Ravens, managed to hold the vaunted Ravens offense to only 20 points (Patrick Queen scored a defensive TD on a 53-yard fumble return), which is even more impressive considering the Bengals offense turned the ball over three times.


“(The Bengals) did do something completely different. They were in a true college 4-3 type of look,” head coach John Harbaugh said after the game. “They were playing quarters with the safeties low. They played it in the past but they hadn’t played it yet this year.”


Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo kept his base personnel on the field with three linebackers. Pass rusher Carlos Dunlap expressed frustration early in the week for being benched and having his role relegated to third-down specialist, but Anarumo needed strong run defenders who could hold their ground and two-gap against the Ravens. This week, the defensive line’s job was to force runners to bounce outside for linebackers and defensive backs to chase down.
 
He's a freaking loser. Spends more time complaining that actually coaching his team.
That’s his primary contribution. Doesn’t know jack- shit about offense and not a hell of a lot than that about defense. You have to make them throw the ball to beat you. They’ve been running this offense for 3 years.
 
So there may be a chance?
Bedard has been hypercritical of the Pats this year but against this Ravens team he wouldn't be surprised if the Pats walk away with a win.

After viewing the coaches film and crunching some numbers, here is what the Patriots can exploit, and what this matchup will come down to that still makes the chances of an upset minimal:

• After starting the season with big wins in four of the first five weeks (similar to the close of 2019), the Ravens have struggled since with a two-point win over the Eagles, a 28-24 loss to the Steelers, and a 24-10 win over the Colts that was much closer than the final score indicated (Ravens punted on their first five possessions and fumbled on the next; Ravens scored 14 points off turnovers).
• Ravens are 5th in DVOA — 23rd on offense (23rd pass/5th rushing) and 5th on defense (7th pass/1st rushing).
If you can get to the red zone, Baltimore’s defense is 30th in the NFL — allowing TDs on 77.8 percent of drives.
• Their vaunted rushing attack has taken a huge hit with the season-ending injury to LT Ronnie Stanley — arguably the best in the league right now — and retirement of RG Marshal Yanda. Orlando Brown is a good player, but having to move him from RT to LT makes the Ravens weaker at two spots because RT D.J. Fluker is barely average. RG Patrick Mekari is awful, as is C Matt Skura. LG Bradley Bozeman is average. This is a good matchup for a weak Patriots front seven.
• This Ravens line is now very slow and has screwed up the timing of the Ravens’ running game. Baltimore’s ball handlers are all fast and quick. It has a line that is better with power. It doesn’t match up, and you can see the two identities fighting themselves on every play. The Ravens’ running game is nowhere near as formidable as it used to be if you can limit Lamar Jackson’s “special” plays where his talent just wins.

Teams are taking TE Mark Andrews out of the game, almost completely. He’s had one game since the opener with more than three catches, and that was against the Bengals. Opponents have realized how much Jackson relies on Andrews in the middle of the field on quickly designed plays and are eliminating him so Jackson has to throw outside and read defenses.
• Almost every team has taken this approach with the Ravens, and it started with the Chiefs game: challenge the Ravens’ offense with press-man coverage and lots of pressure. Teams are making the Ravens’ receivers beat them one-on-one and forcing Jackson to make precise ball placement throws into tight coverage.
Many teams are sending all-out blitzes on third and long with the focus being on eliminating escape lanes for Jackson and speeding up his decision-making.
• It has had a cumulative effect on Jackson, whose confidence is now shot. He is not seeing things clearly on the field and leaving the pocket early. In the second half against the Colts, they had to go a very remedial passing game with very basic routes and mostly defined reads and throws.

• All of this is up the Patriots’ alley if they can hold the fort MUCH better on first down. Ravens are one of the worst second-down offenses in the league.

• Defensively, this is all going to come down to whoever is at linebacker (Ja’Whaun Bentley and Adrian Phillips?). They can not fall for all the bells and whistles and motion in the run game. This is the ultimate Do Your Job game. The linebackers can’t worry about outside runs. They have to worry about Jackson and their gap, and trust that the edges will hold up, and the corners will tackle. For this group, that’s a lot to get right, but it’s not totally impossible.

WHAT TO LOOK FOR ON OFFENSE


• The Colts are a good comp for the Patriots because right now Cam Newton and Philip Rivers aren’t all that different in that both aren’t seeing the field all that well and are slow to get the ball off.
• The Colts had a really good plan but they gifted the Ravens 14 points off turnovers. The Patriots just can’t do that and stay in the game. If that happens, it will be a blowout.
The Colts pressed the edges of the Ravens defense — which are very soft — with speed sweeps and WR screens. That is something I’d like to see New England incorporate more. I know those plays (and any screens) take practice and timing, but they are higher percentage than some things they’ve tried. I’m smelling a big Isaiah Zuber/Gunner Olszewski game.
• Ravens edge players Matthew Judon, Yannick Ngakoue, Pernell McPhee and Jaylon Ferguson are all soft on the edge and a little lazy against the run.
• DT Calais Campbell left with an injury after three snaps vs. Indy and will likely be very questionable for this game. He’s a huge presence — literally and figuratively — but isn’t the player he once was.

Ravens are primarily a sub-package defense. That should help the Patriots’ run game.

Patriots have to find some trick plays to take advantage of the two rookie LBs: Patrick Queen and Malik Harrison. I thought either would have been a good fit for the Patriots heading into the draft. The Patriots didn’t want them, so they should attack the weaknesses they scouted.

• Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey missed the last game on the Covid list. If he’s back, look out. He may be the best overall CB in the game. He’s primarily the slot but fills a lot of roles for this defense, including TE eliminator.

• I would go after LCB Marcus Peters all night, both with the run and pass. His focus wanes and he can be lazy at the point of attack against the run.

If the Ravens lost to the Colts on Sunday, I would give the Patriots next to no shot. But that win, combined with the Ravens struggling on both sides of the ball, should keep this game relatively close. Not sure I’m bold enough to call an upset, but give me the points.

RAVENS 24, PATRIOTS 20.
 
So there may be a chance?
Bedard has been hypercritical of the Pats this year but against this Ravens team he wouldn't be surprised if the Pats walk away with a win.

I can't stand Bedard, but he does have a good football mind and I agree with some of his points, most notably their struggles on the OL.

I think the tendency is for folks to remember how they basically ran us out of the building last year, but they were a much better blocking team than they have been lately and just threw a massive front wall at us and we couldn't get a whole lot done. It seemed to be sort of a reality check and we just didn't have it.

Still, I've been thinking we might have a shot in this one. Maybe he's right about a few things.
 
I can't stand Bedard, but he does have a good football mind and I agree with some of his points, most notably their struggles on the OL.

I think the tendency is for folks to remember how they basically ran us out of the building last year, but they were a much better blocking team than they have been lately and just threw a massive front wall at us and we couldn't get a whole lot done. It seemed to be sort of a reality check and we just didn't have it.

Still, I've been thinking we might have a shot in this one. Maybe he's right about a few things.

Losing Stanley and Yanda without adequate replacements hurt the Ravens' OL badly. As it is, their LT and LG are good but their C, RG and RT are below average.
Imagine having DJ Fluker as our RT. The guy is strong but slow as a 3 toed sloth. Maybe Winovich can take advantage of Fluker.
comming on my way GIF
 
I can't stand Bedard, but he does have a good football mind and I agree with some of his points, most notably their struggles on the OL.

I think the tendency is for folks to remember how they basically ran us out of the building last year, but they were a much better blocking team than they have been lately and just threw a massive front wall at us and we couldn't get a whole lot done. It seemed to be sort of a reality check and we just didn't have it.

Still, I've been thinking we might have a shot in this one. Maybe he's right about a few things.
Not sure what our answer is for Lamar. Our defense is so much worse than last year. Does anyone know if Gilmore will play? I do wonder if they pass some if he is out given the success Flacco had. Lamar is pretty good with the deep shots.

The bigger question is how do we score on the number one ranked scoring defense?
 
Not sure what our answer is for Lamar. Our defense is so much worse than last year. Does anyone know if Gilmore will play? I do wonder if they pass some if he is out given the success Flacco had. Lamar is pretty good with the deep shots.

The bigger question is how do we score on the number one ranked scoring defense?

Adrian Phillips as the spy. Worked well last year.
He hasn't been given the time to get many deep shots this year.
1 first down at a time. Turnovers. Trick plays.
The Ravens are the worst in the league once teams get inside the red zone.
 
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Pats transactions yesterday may impact this game. BB needs bodies, esp on D.
LB Shilique Calhoun finally went to IR after playing very little the last 2 games. Knee
OT Jermaine Eluemunor is back off IR and activated for this game. Prior to his knee injury he was a top 10 graded OT per PFF. Great depth.
TE Jordan Thomas was activated to the 53. He's not likely to play; he hasn't practiced yet.
DT Isaiah Mack is eligible to play today. DT Carl Davis played last week. Much needed depth on the DL.
DT Nick Thurman was released to make room for Mack.
LBs Terez Hall and Cassh Maluia were brought up from the practice squad.
 
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