Week 11, 2020, 1PM at Texans

Finally an early game again!!!
This is a game the Pats' O can use to really get humming again.
The Texans are 31st in rush D; the Pats are 3rd in rushing offense. No contest there. They are 18th in pass D.
On offense they're weak running the ball (31st) which is a blessing for us, and their strength on O is passing (8th) which is also our strength on D. I'll take our pass D every time.

Opening odds: The Pats are 1.5 pt favorites - play the Pats. The Texans are 2-7 with both wins over the lowly Jax Jaguars.

When the Patriots run - Edge: Patriots
Sometimes trying to figure out the best plan of attack for a game can be challenging. Then there are matchups like this that seem to make things quite easy. The Patriots love to run the football behind their physical offensive line. Damien Harris has injected new life into the ground game and is coming off his third 100-yard game of the season against the Ravens. New England ranks third in rushing and appears to be hitting its stride behind Harris' punishing style. Meanwhile the Texans can't stop the run – even when they know it's coming. That was the case when Cleveland took over at its own 3 with just under five minutes left while protecting a 10-7 lead last wek. Despite the obvious situation, the Browns chewed up the remaining time behind Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb, who ground the Texans to death. It wasn't an aberration, either. Houston ranks last in rushing yards allowed as well as rushing yards per play. Even when the weather conditions made passing quite challenging, Houston still was powerless to stop Cleveland on the ground. Expect Harris to continue to see the bulk of the workload, and Rex Burkhead to continue in his support role as both a runner and receiver. That has become the Patriots formula for offensive success, and Houston doesn't have the horses to do much about it.
When the Patriots pass - Edge: Patriots
The Texans aren't much better against the pass, as evidenced by the 7.35 yards per pass they allow for the season, which ranks 26th. The overall yardage (241.7 yards, 18th) is likely a product of teams being content to run the ball instead, which is why the yards per play number is more telling. The Texans employ Bradley Roby and Vernon Hargreaves at corner with Justin Reid and Eric Murray at safety. Lonnie Johnson and Michael Thomas work as extra DBs, but the group has struggled all season as the Texans pass rush hasn't been as potent as normal. Houston has just two interceptions all year and hasn't been able to slow down most of the offenses it has faced. The Patriots are using the passing game as a complementary piece and lately Cam Newton has done a nice job of protecting the ball. Short throws to Jakobi Meyers and Burkhead have represented the bulk of the passing attack, and Meyers has emerged as an important piece with several strong games in recent weeks. The Texans have the ability to put pressure on the passer with J.J. Watt (4 sacks) and Whitney Mercilus (3 sacks) but neither has consistently done so to the point where the secondary has benefited. The Patriots won't likely be chucking it around NRG Stadium but should make enough plays to augment the rushing attack.
When the Texans run - Edge: Patriots
This is an area where a Texans weakness matches with a Patriots weakness. Houston hasn't been able to run the ball much this season for a variety of reasons. David Johnson was serviceable as the lead back before being knocked out of the lineup with a concussion, leaving pass catching threat Duke Johnson as the main option. Duke Johnson averages just over 3 yards per carry. The Texans also have played much of the season from behind, eliminating their opportunities to run the ball more frequently. As a result they rank 31st in the league, averaging just 87.9 yards per game on the ground. So, the fact that the Patriots have experienced their struggles stopping the run this season should be somewhat mitigated against Houston. In addition, New England is coming off a strong effort stopping the run against the Ravens Sunday night, which should give the group some confidence moving forward. Newcomer Carl Davis has stepped in the contributed alongside Lawrence Guy, who returned to the lineup after a one-game absence. Practice squad call-up Terez Hall has looked comfortable working inside in place of the injured Ja'Whaun Bentley, and the Patriots front should have enough to control the Texans on the ground.
When the Texans pass - Edge: Texans
The Texans do have one very dangerous weapon to deal with on offense and that is Deshaun Watson. Despite the Texans 2-7 record, Watson gives his team a chance to win every week and Houston has had a chance to win virtually every week as a result. Watson has 18 touchdowns against just five interceptions and has a 107 passer rating for the season while completing more than 68 percent of his throws. Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks are dangerous as big-play threats with nine touchdowns between them, and Watson can also do damage with his legs, averaging almost 5 yards per rush. The Patriots secondary has been a bit inconsistent as of late, a fact illustrated perfectly by J.C. Jackson. Jackson has interceptions in a team-record five straight games, but he's also given up his share of plays during the stretch. Baltimore's Lamar Jackson was able to enjoy one of his better passing nights in a monsoon Sunday night, and that followed Joe Flacco's strong night a week prior. The Texans will use Cooks, Fuller and slot man Randall Cobb, as well as Duke Johnson out of the backfield as they try to put points on the board behind Watson. The Texans have trouble protecting him at times, but the Patriots haven't consistently generated much heat this season. Houston has shown the ability to put points on the board, and if that's the case Sunday it will likely be due to Watson's brilliance.
Special Teams - Edge: Patriots
The teams are fairly even in this matchup with Houston's Ka'imi Fairbairn doing a solid job in the kicking department alongside punter Bryan Anger. Fairbairn has missed three field goals, one coming last week in tough wind conditions in Cleveland. Nick Folk missed a PAT last week in the rain but that snapped a five-game stretch of perfection for the veteran kicker. Both have been steady for their teams overall. Jake Bailey continues to turn in great work for the Patriots, consistently creating field position for New England. Neither side is generating anything in the return game. DeAndre Carter was handling both punts and kicks for Houston but was released earlier in the week. C.J. Prosise (kicks) and Fuller (punts) could fill the roles Sunday against the Patriots. Gunner Olszewski has handled both jobs for the Patriots but hasn't gotten much going. Each team has been solid on the coverage units, continuing the even nature of this matchup.
 
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I've said it before and I'll say it again, go get Wason in the offseason. Houston is fairly broke with no hgh draft picks. Bill has all the capital to do it and he's still young and a quality QB.
 
The run game was very disappointing. Against a poor run defense like Houston, we should have done a lot better.

The defense was just poor as a complete unit. Front 7 delivered no pressure though they did defend the run well against Duke Johnson. The DBs seemed all at sea. Maybe you can point some of the blame at the front 7 for giving Watson so much time and allowing receivers to get open, but too many times our DBs lost the one-one-one battles. And no turnovers by Houston was critical.

Look, the team is competitive. Against the Seahawks, the Broncos, Bills, Chiefs and Texans they were in a position late in the game to drive to win or at least tie it up. Only the Niners beat us up badly.

Not it mattered much, but Gunner did not have a good game on punt/kick returns. Made an error where his foot was over the end line before catching, fluffed a catch and then at the death instead of calling immediately for the safe catch, he didn't call it and was tackled and burned a few seconds off the clock. That was dumb football.
 
Yeah I didn't mean to say we were on a last-minute drive to win v the Cheifs, just that we were surprisingly competitive when many thought we'd be blown out of the water.

I thought our discipline was poor at times as well, too many penalties. But we had a few dodgy calls against us for sure.
 
Can’t blame the offence this time. Defence couldn’t get it down again in the backfield. Not helped by having no pressure coming on Watson.

After going down 11 points and letting the Texans walk into into the end zone three touchdowns without much of an issue, it seems the offense abandoned the game plan and began to sling it. Which is fine, but Texans began to tee off. The OL struggled with blitz pick up and the rest is history.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, go get Wason in the offseason. Houston is fairly broke with no hgh draft picks. Bill has all the capital to do it and he's still young and a quality QB.

The run game was very disappointing. Against a poor run defense like Houston, we should have done a lot better.

The defense was just poor as a complete unit. Front 7 delivered no pressure though they did defend the run well against Duke Johnson. The DBs seemed all at sea. Maybe you can point some of the blame at the front 7 for giving Watson so much time and allowing receivers to get open, but too many times our DBs lost the one-one-one battles. And no turnovers by Houston was critical.

Look, the team is competitive. Against the Seahawks, the Broncos, Bills, Chiefs and Texans they were in a position late in the game to drive to win or at least tie it up. Only the Niners beat us up badly.

Not it mattered much, but Gunner did not have a good game on punt/kick returns. Made an error where his foot was over the end line before catching, fluffed a catch and then at the death instead of calling immediately for the safe catch, he didn't call it and was tackled and burned a few seconds off the clock. That was dumb football.

Huge game the team had to have but an all around blah effort except for a few guys.

Defense - sucked (Especially pass D/secondary which is our strength. Devin's worse game in memory but he wasn't alone. No energy.)
Special Teams - sucked (Olszewski isn't the guy. Bailey is a great kicker.)
OL - sucked (They weren't ready for RAC's "a penetrator for every gap" game plan. No energy.)
Coaching - sucked (Steve Belichick's conservative defensive calls and Josh's game plan to pass 40 times - illogical and inexcusable. Steve is fast becoming Matt Patricia II to me. After a great game last week Winovich played like shit.)
Widespread penalties - (Uncharacteristic - shows lack of focus and discipline for this game. Stopped our drives and extended their drives far too often. This team needs an extra day off.)

Can't blame this one on Cam. How Cam completed 65% for 365 yds a TD and 0 ints I'll never know. Thank goodness for Byrd yesterday.

I'm pretty much on to next year.
 
The batted down passes were infuriating alright. I remember Tom used to practice with a d lineman using tennis rackets. Cam seems to pass almost sidearmed at times. He's a very tall guy, he should be releasing far higher.

That last possession we had on 4th down was maddening, nobody picked up the robber coming fast on the left side, he just bolted clean through to Cam.
 
Huge game the team had to have but an all around blah effort except for a few guys.

Defense - sucked (Especially pass D/secondary which is our strength. Devin's worse game in memory but he wasn't alone. No energy.)
Special Teams - sucked (Olszewski isn't the guy. Bailey is a great kicker.)
OL - sucked (They weren't ready for RAC's "a penetrator for every gap" game plan. No energy.)
Coaching - sucked (Steve Belichick's conservative defensive calls and Josh's game plan to pass 40 times - illogical and inexcusable. Steve is fast becoming Matt Patricia II to me. After a great game last week Winovich played like shit.)
Widespread penalties - (Uncharacteristic - shows lack of focus and discipline for this game. Stopped our drives and extended their drives far too often. This team needs an extra day off.)

Can't blame this one on Cam. How Cam completed 65% for 365 yds a TD and 0 ints I'll never know. Thank goodness for Byrd yesterday.

I'm pretty much on to next year.

Oh, I don't blame this on Cam.I really like him. Just want Watson for the future is all.
 
To think, we were worried about pk, and it turned out it was most of the rest of the team we should have been worried about. fits right in to this effed up year 2020. 😄
 
Watt had a monster game swatting everything down. I wish they could change Cam from throwing side arm so much. He is 6'5 so he should not have then batted down so much but that delivery is the issue.
 
The run game was very disappointing. Against a poor run defense like Houston, we should have done a lot better.

The defense was just poor as a complete unit. Front 7 delivered no pressure though they did defend the run well against Duke Johnson. The DBs seemed all at sea. Maybe you can point some of the blame at the front 7 for giving Watson so much time and allowing receivers to get open, but too many times our DBs lost the one-one-one battles. And no turnovers by Houston was critical.

Look, the team is competitive. Against the Seahawks, the Broncos, Bills, Chiefs and Texans they were in a position late in the game to drive to win or at least tie it up. Only the Niners beat us up badly.

Not it mattered much, but Gunner did not have a good game on punt/kick returns. Made an error where his foot was over the end line before catching, fluffed a catch and then at the death instead of calling immediately for the safe catch, he didn't call it and was tackled and burned a few seconds off the clock. That was dumb football.

I haven't been able to figure out if Gunner is just nuts or if he's following orders, but he's taken way too many kicks from 4 or more yards back in the EZ and got snuffed inside the 20. That is not what we usually do around here with Bill favoring guys that can't really run, but have dependable hands to take the kneel down and go the 75. There doesn't seem to be much of a rhyme or reason to when he kneels and when he goes, but, at very least we aren't risking a guy that is involved in the passing game.

Not sure if it is the new ST coach or Bill, but things are different and a bit worse.

Not to blame the kid too much, he's got some heart and is a pretty good athlete. Maybe he's not allowed to make his own decisions, but somebody is messing up.
 
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