Week 11, 2020, 1PM at Texans

Finally an early game again!!!
This is a game the Pats' O can use to really get humming again.
The Texans are 31st in rush D; the Pats are 3rd in rushing offense. No contest there. They are 18th in pass D.
On offense they're weak running the ball (31st) which is a blessing for us, and their strength on O is passing (8th) which is also our strength on D. I'll take our pass D every time.

Opening odds: The Pats are 1.5 pt favorites - play the Pats. The Texans are 2-7 with both wins over the lowly Jax Jaguars.

When the Patriots run - Edge: Patriots
Sometimes trying to figure out the best plan of attack for a game can be challenging. Then there are matchups like this that seem to make things quite easy. The Patriots love to run the football behind their physical offensive line. Damien Harris has injected new life into the ground game and is coming off his third 100-yard game of the season against the Ravens. New England ranks third in rushing and appears to be hitting its stride behind Harris' punishing style. Meanwhile the Texans can't stop the run – even when they know it's coming. That was the case when Cleveland took over at its own 3 with just under five minutes left while protecting a 10-7 lead last wek. Despite the obvious situation, the Browns chewed up the remaining time behind Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb, who ground the Texans to death. It wasn't an aberration, either. Houston ranks last in rushing yards allowed as well as rushing yards per play. Even when the weather conditions made passing quite challenging, Houston still was powerless to stop Cleveland on the ground. Expect Harris to continue to see the bulk of the workload, and Rex Burkhead to continue in his support role as both a runner and receiver. That has become the Patriots formula for offensive success, and Houston doesn't have the horses to do much about it.
When the Patriots pass - Edge: Patriots
The Texans aren't much better against the pass, as evidenced by the 7.35 yards per pass they allow for the season, which ranks 26th. The overall yardage (241.7 yards, 18th) is likely a product of teams being content to run the ball instead, which is why the yards per play number is more telling. The Texans employ Bradley Roby and Vernon Hargreaves at corner with Justin Reid and Eric Murray at safety. Lonnie Johnson and Michael Thomas work as extra DBs, but the group has struggled all season as the Texans pass rush hasn't been as potent as normal. Houston has just two interceptions all year and hasn't been able to slow down most of the offenses it has faced. The Patriots are using the passing game as a complementary piece and lately Cam Newton has done a nice job of protecting the ball. Short throws to Jakobi Meyers and Burkhead have represented the bulk of the passing attack, and Meyers has emerged as an important piece with several strong games in recent weeks. The Texans have the ability to put pressure on the passer with J.J. Watt (4 sacks) and Whitney Mercilus (3 sacks) but neither has consistently done so to the point where the secondary has benefited. The Patriots won't likely be chucking it around NRG Stadium but should make enough plays to augment the rushing attack.
When the Texans run - Edge: Patriots
This is an area where a Texans weakness matches with a Patriots weakness. Houston hasn't been able to run the ball much this season for a variety of reasons. David Johnson was serviceable as the lead back before being knocked out of the lineup with a concussion, leaving pass catching threat Duke Johnson as the main option. Duke Johnson averages just over 3 yards per carry. The Texans also have played much of the season from behind, eliminating their opportunities to run the ball more frequently. As a result they rank 31st in the league, averaging just 87.9 yards per game on the ground. So, the fact that the Patriots have experienced their struggles stopping the run this season should be somewhat mitigated against Houston. In addition, New England is coming off a strong effort stopping the run against the Ravens Sunday night, which should give the group some confidence moving forward. Newcomer Carl Davis has stepped in the contributed alongside Lawrence Guy, who returned to the lineup after a one-game absence. Practice squad call-up Terez Hall has looked comfortable working inside in place of the injured Ja'Whaun Bentley, and the Patriots front should have enough to control the Texans on the ground.
When the Texans pass - Edge: Texans
The Texans do have one very dangerous weapon to deal with on offense and that is Deshaun Watson. Despite the Texans 2-7 record, Watson gives his team a chance to win every week and Houston has had a chance to win virtually every week as a result. Watson has 18 touchdowns against just five interceptions and has a 107 passer rating for the season while completing more than 68 percent of his throws. Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks are dangerous as big-play threats with nine touchdowns between them, and Watson can also do damage with his legs, averaging almost 5 yards per rush. The Patriots secondary has been a bit inconsistent as of late, a fact illustrated perfectly by J.C. Jackson. Jackson has interceptions in a team-record five straight games, but he's also given up his share of plays during the stretch. Baltimore's Lamar Jackson was able to enjoy one of his better passing nights in a monsoon Sunday night, and that followed Joe Flacco's strong night a week prior. The Texans will use Cooks, Fuller and slot man Randall Cobb, as well as Duke Johnson out of the backfield as they try to put points on the board behind Watson. The Texans have trouble protecting him at times, but the Patriots haven't consistently generated much heat this season. Houston has shown the ability to put points on the board, and if that's the case Sunday it will likely be due to Watson's brilliance.
Special Teams - Edge: Patriots
The teams are fairly even in this matchup with Houston's Ka'imi Fairbairn doing a solid job in the kicking department alongside punter Bryan Anger. Fairbairn has missed three field goals, one coming last week in tough wind conditions in Cleveland. Nick Folk missed a PAT last week in the rain but that snapped a five-game stretch of perfection for the veteran kicker. Both have been steady for their teams overall. Jake Bailey continues to turn in great work for the Patriots, consistently creating field position for New England. Neither side is generating anything in the return game. DeAndre Carter was handling both punts and kicks for Houston but was released earlier in the week. C.J. Prosise (kicks) and Fuller (punts) could fill the roles Sunday against the Patriots. Gunner Olszewski has handled both jobs for the Patriots but hasn't gotten much going. Each team has been solid on the coverage units, continuing the even nature of this matchup.
 
Last edited:
-Cam goes way back with both Jakobi Meyers and Deshaun Watson through Cam's football camp.
Watson and Cam became friends while Watson was still in HS. Cam was Watson's mentor.
-OT Tunsil is the Texans' best O lineman. 2nd highest paid O lineman in the NFL. The Pats get a break with him out of the game.

 
Last edited:
I get the disappointment in Harry, I feel it too, but Derek Rivers played even less than him and got 3 1/2 years (assuming he's fully gone) to produce and I could cite other higher picks that got all kinds of opportunity to do something. More than patient in some cases.

I'm not ready to throw in the towel yet. I think it's possible that he's had multiple injuries this year, including two to his noggin, that have held him back.

I remember him looking like a tackle-breaking machine, at times, when he got his chance to play last season. He hasn't been that guy this season, clearly. but he's had a couple of productive games earlier and looked like he was maybe coming around.

I'll disagree that this is a sneaky move by BB to avoid embarrassing questions, assuming that is what you mean. I can see him maybe protecting a young player in some way, but not himself.

Protecting Harry's ego, self-confidence and psyche is what I meant. Watching Meyers bust out the way he has the last few games has to be getting Harry's confidence down.
An injury? Oh. That explains it. Easy Button. At least for now.

I'm not throwing in the towel for Harry either. I still think Harry could become an effective Big Slot receiver in the mold of Anquan Boldin or Larry Fitzgerald.
My towel for Harry playing outside was thrown long ago. He simply can't do it.
 
LB Terez Hall had previously been elevated from the PS to the 53 to play.

He was signed to the 53 yesterday. He's got to be a happy guy today.

I'm all set with this and don't want to see Bentley again.
 
Harry has joined the injury list with a shoulder. To me, that's a convenient and easy way out for him not to play, or play to be a blocker, and for neither BB nor Harry to have to answer questions about it. Yeah, tin foil, I know, but it's the least embarrassing way to handle it.
I agree. Watching Meyers perform so well is probably not helping his confidence. It's hard to believe that this pick was worse by Bill then Chad Jackson.
 
I agree. Watching Meyers perform so well is probably not helping his confidence. It's hard to believe that this pick was worse by Bill then Chad Jackson.

I wouldn't go that far. Due to circumstances, Harry hasn't been able to be used at his best position. He's seen some inside positioning this year finally.
 
I wouldn't go that far. Due to circumstances, Harry hasn't been able to be used at his best position. He's seen some inside positioning this year finally.
I would also add that having Cam is not doing him any favors. He was decent at times last year with Brady throwing him that back shoulder TD ball vs Dallas and then he had some nice YAC on throws as well. I think for this year with the way our offense is shaking out to be run specific and Cam's limitations as a passer, Harry does need more time and hopefully a better QB down the road.

Hannible had a good write up of the recent drafts today that is worth a read. The last few have been awful but this year at least seems to have some bright spots.

1. The Patriots’ issues drafting in recent years has been a major topic of late, and Saturday was a prime example as to why. The team released Derek Rivers, a third-round pick in 2017, and then Hjalte Froholdt, a fourth-round selection last year. Rivers was the Patriots’ first selection in that draft and he has just 2.5 sacks in 14 career games. Even taking he was a third-round pick, as well as his injury history, into account he didn’t give the Patriots much at all. And then when it comes to Froholdt, he was a late-round pick, but flat out waiving him less than two years after drafting him is an indication he doesn’t have much of a chance of working out for any team. The writing was on the wall when he barely saw any playing time earlier in the year when the offensive line was dealing with a number of injuries. Looking at the drafting as a whole since 2017, the only players to truly feel confident in are Kyle Dugger, Michael Onwenu, Jake Bailey and Isaiah Wynn. Out of 31 players, that isn’t great, although it is worth noting the 2020 rookie class deserves more time to make a determination on given COVID-19 and how that impacted the offseason. But in general, the 2017 draft was essentially a waste with only Deatrich Wise still on the roster, 2018 not getting much at all with only Wynn, Sony Michel, Ja’Whaun Bentley and Ryan Izzo still on the roster, and then last year seeing Joejuan Williams, Yodny Cajuste, Jarrett Stidham and Froholdt being selected in the first four rounds and being non-factors. Which draft picks should Bill Belichick and Co. feel good about in the last four years? Those can be counted on one hand, and that isn’t good at all.
 
LB Terez Hall had previously been elevated from the PS to the 53 to play.

He was signed to the 53 yesterday. He's got to be a happy guy today.

I'm all set with this and don't want to see Bentley again.

He's a noticeable improvement from Bentley. At least he doesn't shoot the wrong gap and take himself out of half the plays.
 
I still think he was IRrd last year because they knew he sucked.
Just cut him and move on.

I would also add that having Cam is not doing him any favors. He was decent at times last year with Brady throwing him that back shoulder TD ball vs Dallas and then he had some nice YAC on throws as well. I think for this year with the way our offense is shaking out to be run specific and Cam's limitations as a passer, Harry does need more time and hopefully a better QB down the road.

Hannible had a good write up of the recent drafts today that is worth a read. The last few have been awful but this year at least seems to have some bright spots.

1. The Patriots’ issues drafting in recent years has been a major topic of late, and Saturday was a prime example as to why. The team released Derek Rivers, a third-round pick in 2017, and then Hjalte Froholdt, a fourth-round selection last year. Rivers was the Patriots’ first selection in that draft and he has just 2.5 sacks in 14 career games. Even taking he was a third-round pick, as well as his injury history, into account he didn’t give the Patriots much at all. And then when it comes to Froholdt, he was a late-round pick, but flat out waiving him less than two years after drafting him is an indication he doesn’t have much of a chance of working out for any team. The writing was on the wall when he barely saw any playing time earlier in the year when the offensive line was dealing with a number of injuries. Looking at the drafting as a whole since 2017, the only players to truly feel confident in are Kyle Dugger, Michael Onwenu, Jake Bailey and Isaiah Wynn. Out of 31 players, that isn’t great, although it is worth noting the 2020 rookie class deserves more time to make a determination on given COVID-19 and how that impacted the offseason. But in general, the 2017 draft was essentially a waste with only Deatrich Wise still on the roster, 2018 not getting much at all with only Wynn, Sony Michel, Ja’Whaun Bentley and Ryan Izzo still on the roster, and then last year seeing Joejuan Williams, Yodny Cajuste, Jarrett Stidham and Froholdt being selected in the first four rounds and being non-factors. Which draft picks should Bill Belichick and Co. feel good about in the last four years? Those can be counted on one hand, and that isn’t good at all.

I thought Harry was off to a really encouraging start with Newton. In the first two this year, back before Covid for Cam and the OL falling completely apart, N'Keal was targeted 18 times and caught 13 of them for 111 yards. No TDs but there were a number of key 1st down catches among them. That would project out to 104 catches. I think that Harry got his melon gonged on a H2H by some asshole in, I believe, the 3rd game (Raiders) and he attempted to shake it off but he didn't look right. I have no proof of that, but the hit was absolutely brutal and appeared much worse than the second one where he got diagnosed with a concussion and missed a few games. I believe those two hits were linked and since then we've been trying to give him some time to heal and, hence, left him out of the passing game lest he end up scrambled to the point his career is in jeopardy (if it is not already).

The Froholdt move came as a shock to me. I thought he looked strong, athletic and really promising and I predict he'll be an effective, starting guard for somebody before long. I've seen lots worse guys stick on this team for years, so I don't get this move at all, particularly since we'll need to replace Thuney next year. I expected we'd plug The Danish Destroyer in and leave everybody where they were, but apparently we've decided to kick Onwenu inside and dust off Cannon next year at RT. Or something. The only thing that makes sense to me is if he's got some sort of off-field issues, like he was lazy or addicted to guzzling mushroom tea before games like a Viking beserker.
 
He's a noticeable improvement from Bentley. At least he doesn't shoot the wrong gap and take himself out of half the plays.

I noticed Hall out of position on several plays last week, but he is a battler and a little quicker than Bentley. He's also a much better tackler. While an improvement, I'm not thinking he is any sort of long-term answer. I hope we've seen the last of Bentley. He is the linebacker equivalent of Jordan Richards -- too slow and athletically limited to play.
 
-Cam goes way back with both Jakobi Meyers and Deshaun Watson through Cam's football camp.
Watson and Cam became friends while Watson was still in HS. Cam was Watson's mentor.
-OT Tunsil is the Texans' best O lineman. 2nd highest paid O lineman in the NFL. The Pats get a break with him out of the game.


Ian Rapaport is saying Tunsil may play after all. He had a non-COVID flu bug this past week.
I'm also reading WR Kenny Stills is clear to play.
 
Warming up with Moses Cabrera: Stephon Gilmore, NKeal Harry, Rex Burkhead, Jonathan Jones, Gunner, Jakobi Meyers, Joejuan Williams, Jakob Johnson, Jake Bailey, Kyle Dugger, James White, Damien Harris, Ryan Izzo, Jason & Devin McCourty, Matthew Slater, Jarrett Staidham, Winovich.

Looks like Harris is RB1.
And Harry is back.
1606073836647.png
 
It feels as if we hadn't had a 1PM game in a while. So happy to have one. Funny when I was younger I'd hate 1PM games because I'd be at mass with my parents. I would rather have afternoon games or night games. I loved night games. Now that I'm older I like night games the least and absolutely love 1PM games.
 
Back
Top