Week 5, 2025, At Buffalo

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chevss454

Data-driven decision-making is science and art.
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Diggs should be up for this game.
pound them with the run and then hit them with play action.

I hope our D can keep us in the game.
limit penalties and turnovers (duh)
 
Going by the ease Pats moved the ball against both the Steelers (sans the terrible ball security of course) and the Panthers it seems McDaniels and Maye are starting to gel quite well.

Let's hope they continue that trend against the Bills.
 
My three biggest concerns about the Patriots' defense are:
1) mobile QBs
2) outside running
3) dangerous receiving TEs.

The Bills hit all three very hard. I'm going to be interested to see what the Patriots do to address these issues, as well as whether they continue to play for penetration and aggression vs hanging back and trying to maintain lane discipline. Conventional wisdom is to shift towards the latter vs the Bills...but it doesn't seem to be working for any team so far.
 
LB Jahlani Tavai can come off IR this week. He's practicing today. Adding in to the LB group should help a lot.
Buffalo has a 13 game win streak at home.
Marcus Jones named AFC STs Player of the week. Gibson got the honor for week 2. I'm thankful for STs coach J. Springer.
 
www.bostonherald.com

Patriots mailbag: Could Pats add superstar or role player via trade?

Is this the biggest game of Drake Maye’s career? Where could the Patriots add via trade? We answer your questions in this week’s mailbag.
www.bostonherald.com www.bostonherald.com

@Llyod_Christmas: Is this the biggest game of Maye’s career so far?

I would say so, yes. Primetime game against the top team in the AFC, who also just happens to be a division rival. A win against the Bills would really open some eyes around the league and give the Patriots a winning record.

The Bills are favored by 7.5 points at home on Sunday night, however. So, that does feel unlikely.
@nevetS_71: Given the way the team looked last week, are we officially out of “good losses” territory? Meaning anything short of a win in Buffalo, no matter how they look, is a disappointment?

No, we’re not at that point yet. There are still moral victories for a team who lost to the Raiders and Steelers, went 4-13 last season and still don’t have one of the more talented rosters in the NFL.

When you’re a 7.5-point underdog, a loss can’t be a disappointment.

@AlexDaAverage: When will this team start using their boundary WRs more? Boutte had a phenomenal 1st game but ever since Josh seems to have schemed him out entirely

This might be a good week for it. Both of the Bills’ outside cornerbacks, Christian Benford and Tre’Davious White, have struggled this season.

I have faith that Benford can pull it together. He’s a good player, but he’s allowed 14 catches on 21 targets for 148 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions so far this season.

White is another story. At 30, he’s dealt with injuries and hasn’t been in his true prime for five years. He’s allowing a 110.8 passer rating this season.

Still, the Bills rank pretty well in DVOA when quarterbacks are targeting the outside. They’re seventh in passing DVOA to the left side and 12th in passing DVOA to the right side. They’re 18th in the middle of the field, so that could be an area Maye can exploit. The Bills have been stingy to a team’s top receiver and running backs in the passing game. They’re less effective against tight ends and a team’s secondary passing options.

@danny_monahan14: My question is do you think Mack Hollins and Steph Diggs have big days in their returns to Buffalo? And how our corners will line up against Buffalos receivers?

Hey, Dan! I think Stefon Diggs will be highly motivated to perform against his former team. The Bills rank ninth in DVOA while defending a team’s top wide receiver, which Diggs would have to be considered at this point. So, he has his work cut out for him.

Mack Hollins hasn’t been heavily involved in the passing game, but he does have two receiving touchdowns. Despite some of the trends, I still see Diggs having a good game. Diggs has 150 of his 213 yards this season on targets to the middle of the field. That’s despite only 67 yards coming on snaps out of the slot.

I’m still waiting for Hollins to get more involved in the passing game. He’s been Lil’Jordan Humphrey with red-zone targets through four games.

As for how the Patriots’ cornerbacks will line up against Bills receivers, they’ve pretty strictly played sides so far. Carlton Davis has played 173 snaps at left cornerback and only 20 snaps at right cornerback. All of those came against the Steelers, when he was forced to travel against DK Metcalf a little bit more.

Christian Gonzalez played all 41 of his wide cornerback snaps last week on the left side. He also played eight snaps in the slot.

So, the Bills will be determining the matchups more than the Patriots. Keon Coleman and Joshua Palmer have primarily been the Bills’ outside wide receivers. Khalil Shakir can play outside, but over 70% of his snaps have come in the slot.

You’d prefer Gonzalez against Coleman, but they don’t have a dominant top wide receiver. Tight end Dalton Kincaid could have a big game, however. The Patriots are allowing 64 yards per game against tight ends, which ranks eighth highest in the league.


@TPJ_Sports: I think we should keep Diggs in the slot but I need to see more Kyle Williams, lots of teams were in on him. Do you know why we haven’t seen much of him?

There are a few factors with Kyle Williams. First, he’s been behind Kayshon Boutte, Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins and DeMario Douglas on the depth chart. So, naturally, he’s going to see fewer snaps.

It’s also a new offense for Maye, and it makes sense to surround him with as many dependable players as possible. Williams didn’t have the strongest training camp, he’s a rookie, and he’s learning a complicated system. Williams will get his opportunities, but I would be surprised if he passed Boutte, Diggs or Hollins on the depth chart that soon.
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I'd like to see WRs Boutte and Williams used in this game more to expand the field. Bills' CB TreDavious White isn't the same player he was a few years ago. I appreciate what Doug Kyed says just above about Williams but I'd love to see McD give him 3-4 plays of 15+ yds designed to go to him in this game. Put Buffalo on notice that a CB3 or CB4 can't cover Boutte or Williams and force Buffalo to change their D. Diggs and Hollins should be up for this game. You know Buffalo will want to shut Diggs down and McD can take advantage of Diggs drawing whatever sporadic extra coverage they give him, especially in 3rd down situations.


After wk 4:

The Bills are #1 in team passing defense. The Pats are 26th, giving up 241 yds more per game. But Gonzo is back now.
The Bills are #11 in total team defense. The Pats are 16th, giving up 23 yds more per game. Negligible in my mind.
The Bills are #31 in rushing defense. The Pats are 2nd, giving up 90 yds less per game and 2 rushing TDs to Buffalo's 5. I expect a run heavy game plan with a lot of PA for our passing game.
Third down defenses are similar with the Pats having a slight edge.
The Pats are 11th in scoring defense with 20 pts. per game given up; the Bills are 17th with 22.5 pts. Each team has given up 10 TDs.
Sacks totals are similar. Buffalo has 20 pressures; the Pats have only 4. Passes defensed: each team has 10.
Turnover margins: Bills 0.8, Pats -0.8.


Offense:
Points per game: Bills 33, Pats 25.
Scoring margin per game: Bills 10.8, Pats 5.3.
Avg TOP: Bills 35 mins, Pats 30:29.
4th down conversions made: Pats 88%, Bills 75%.
3rd down conversions made: Bills 48%, Pats 46%.
Passing yds/game: Bills 249, Pats 247.
Rushing yds/game: Bills 163, Pats 101.

STs TDs/game: Bills 0, Pats 0.5.
Penalties/game: Bills 6.5 for 49 yds, Pats 8.5 for 63 yds.


I think we can agree there's a slight edge statistically to the Bills but the difference is less than you probably thought.
 
chevss454 said:
I'd like to see WRs Boutte and Williams used in this game more to expand the field. Bills' CB TreDavious White isn't the same player he was a few years ago. I appreciate what Doug Kyed says just above about Williams but I'd love to see McD give him 3-4 plays of 15+ yds designed to go to him in this game. Put Buffalo on notice that a CB3 or CB4 can't cover Boutte or Williams and force Buffalo to change their D. Diggs and Hollins should be up for this game. You know Buffalo will want to shut Diggs down and McD can take advantage of Diggs drawing whatever sporadic extra coverage they give him, especially in 3rd down situations.


After wk 4:

The Bills are #1 in team passing defense. The Pats are 26th, giving up 241 yds more per game. But Gonzo is back now.
The Bills are #11 in total team defense. The Pats are 16th, giving up 23 yds more per game. Negligible in my mind.
The Bills are #31 in rushing defense. The Pats are 2nd, giving up 90 yds less per game and 2 rushing TDs to Buffalo's 5. I expect a run heavy game plan with a lot of PA for our passing game.
Third down defenses are similar with the Pats having a slight edge.
The Pats are 11th in scoring defense with 20 pts. per game given up; the Bills are 17th with 22.5 pts. Each team has given up 10 TDs.
Sacks totals are similar. Buffalo has 20 pressures; the Pats have only 4. Passes defensed: each team has 10.
Turnover margins: Bills 0.8, Pats -0.8.


Offense:
Points per game: Bills 33, Pats 25.
Scoring margin per game: Bills 10.8, Pats 5.3.
Avg TOP: Bills 35 mins, Pats 30:29.
4th down conversions made: Pats 88%, Bills 75%.
3rd down conversions made: Bills 48%, Pats 46%.
Passing yds/game: Bills 249, Pats 247.
Rushing yds/game: Bills 163, Pats 101.

STs TDs/game: Bills 0, Pats 0.5.
Penalties/game: Bills 6.5 for 49 yds, Pats 8.5 for 63 yds.


I think we can agree there's a slight edge statistically to the Bills but the difference is less than you probably thought.
Click to expand...


With Gonzo being back it seems as though the defenses are comparable, although Pats are much better against the run while the Bills are against the pass.

Keeping Maye a clean pocket and a good running game plan will be huge.

Turnovers and penalties will be pretty crucial in this game (as with every game).

If the defense can contain Allen it may be closer than the spread. If not it will be difficult to keep up because the strength will be in the run game.

Slow, methodical game will favor the Pats. A shootout will heavily favor the Bills.

I'm excited.
 
SkiptoMyLou said:
With Gonzo being back it seems as though the defenses are comparable, although Pats are much better against the run while the Bills are against the pass.

Keeping Maye a clean pocket and a good running game plan will be huge.

Turnovers and penalties will be pretty crucial in this game (as with every game).

If the defense can contain Allen it may be closer than the spread. If not it will be difficult to keep up because the strength will be in the run game.

Slow, methodical game will favor the Pats. A shootout will heavily favor the Bills.

I'm excited.
Click to expand...

I'll be interested to see if we put a spy on Allen the way teams have done recently against Lamar. Bill never liked doing it although he did just that against Allen in the storm game a few years ago. I'd like to see it done in a game to see if it can frustrate Allen the way it has frustrated Lamar. It doesn't have to be the same player for every play. Mix it up among various players to confuse him. At the same time, have our DTs penetrate up the middle and the DEs prevent escape to the outside in the same way the Lions rushed Lamar. Try it and see. Crazy thought, I know, but it might just work.

thesportsrush.com

Bill Belichick Names The Former Chiefs "Spy" Who Controlled Josh Allen’s Scrambles Last Year

The Chiefs will look to continue their undefeated streak on the road against Buffalo this Sunday. The Josh Allen-led Bills have a great task ahead if they want a shot at taking down the undefeated champions from last season. They would need to look at the strategies that the Chiefs have...
thesportsrush.com thesportsrush.com

www.arrowheadpride.com

How the Chiefs could spy the Bills’ Josh Allen in the AFC Championship

In the regular-season matchup, Kansas City didn’t spy Buffalo’s versatile quarterback.
www.arrowheadpride.com www.arrowheadpride.com
 
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This week's game should be good test for Maye & defense. To see how they play against a Top Team . I'm interested in seeing if Diggs & Hollis will be more involved in the game plan.
 
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I'm interested to see how our ST contribute to this game. The Bills have had a few big plays in the recent past against our ST defense. If we can flip that script and get Gibson/Henderson and Jones going, it'll be a huge boon.
 
Brownfan80 said:
I'm interested to see how our ST contribute to this game. The Bills have had a few big plays in the recent past against our ST defense. If we can flip that script and get Gibson/Henderson and Jones going, it'll be a huge boon.
Click to expand...

A TD from STs sure could help the cause.
 
I'll be honest here, and this kind of harkens back to how the karma threads initially started, but that is really not my intention. I don't expect the Patriots to win whatsoever. They aren't ready yet. I know some people hate this way of thinking, but for me, this can be a moral victory game. They will likely lose, but it is how they lose that is of most interest to me. Do they fight? Do they remain competitive for a time? Do they hang onto the ball? Kind of like that Rams game in 2001 during the regular season. The Patriots lost, but we came out of that game knowing that they could fight and be competitive and hang with the best. That game did not feel like a loss, on the contrary, I remember feeling optimism about how good the team was becoming.
 
I wish it wasn’t the 8:30 game. I’m a single dad to a 3 year old and wake up at 4:30 every day.
Does the NFL realize people work?
I was really looking forward to this one.
 
Undertaker #59* said:
I'll be honest here, and this kind of harkens back to how the karma threads initially started, but that is really not my intention. I don't expect the Patriots to win whatsoever. They aren't ready yet. I know some people hate this way of thinking, but for me, this can be a moral victory game. They will likely lose, but it is how they lose that is of most interest to me. Do they fight? Do they remain competitive for a time? Do they hang onto the ball? Kind of like that Rams game in 2001 during the regular season. The Patriots lost, but we came out of that game knowing that they could fight and be competitive and hang with the best. That game did not feel like a loss, on the contrary, I remember feeling optimism about how good the team was becoming.
Click to expand...
I hear ya UT
Of course i want a win, but beating up on Carolina and a close win over doofins doesn’t mean we are ready to beat the Bills, in Buffalo no less. We could, but i too am looking at this is a ‘how did they play against a top opponent’ and ‘are we seeing progress’ game
 
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