So I've been saying 'trade everyone burn it down' etc etc, but in the NFL there is the reality of the salary cap (which isn't crap), and the realities of it will determine what moves a team can make going forward.
I just said 'Trade everyone 30+' on the team in another thread, but in reality, that's a lot easier said than done. The Patriots will be on the hook for the dead cap numbers going forward, but with ~$97 million in space for next year, it might not be the end of the world. I am assuming the Patriots won't be signing any free agents this offseason, because besides the fact you're not going to get any young talent in FA probably, who the hell is going to want to come here? (which is my reasoning for the 3rd round comp picks) The 'Over 30s' with significant dead cap hits in a trade are:
-Matt Judon ($25 million 2023, 10 million 2024), obviously he's in IR, and even if you could trade him (and I'm not sure you can), you're not going to get any return for him. Healthy and playing well, you might get a 3rd round pick for him, after this season if healthy, that value is going to be less. In reality, if he comes back and plays well next year, you might be able to score a better pick for the lesser cap hit, but at that point, you may as well let him ride it out and take the 3rd round comp pick. Or even re-sign him if he plays really well, although I doubt he'd want to stick around for a multi-year rebuild. Too bad too, I love this player.
-Hunter Henry (he's 29, but close enough) will have a pro-rated dead cap hit of $14.5 million. Again, I'm not sure what you'd get in a trade, unless you get a really desperate team willing to give up a 2nd for him, you're not going to get better than a 5th rounder - again, better off letting him ride it out and get the 3rd/4th round comp.
-Trent Brown ($5,5 million) seems like a really good candidate for a trade. You could potentially get a day 2 pick for him, minimal dead cap. I feel like if you let him ride out the season, he's a candidate for retirement, so you may end up with nothing - or he signs a really cheap contract with a contender, and you end up with a 7th round comp if you're lucky
- David Andrews ($8.1 million 2023, 1.9 million 2024) - Might want to keep him for another year, although if some team calls offering a 3rd or 4th, you'd have to think about it. He's a definite trade possibility in League Year 2024 however.
- Jon Jones ($13 million 2023, $7.5 million 2024) - I think this would be the best possible chance for a premium day 2 draft pick, and he's worth eating the cap hit for. High level CBs are always in demand
The good news with the salaries, is nobody with any significant cap hit is signed past 2024, so money drains aren't going to be an issue. The issue is, there's no one here to trade that's worth trading, where you could reasonably expect a similar talent in a replacement through the draft. Now, that's not the only reason to accumulate draft picks, the more ammo you have, the more aggressive you can be in trading up. As it stands now, the Patriots only have 8 picks next year (2 sixths), and they'll need to have a lot more than that in the gas tank, assuming they need to trade up for the #1 overall pick (although they may not need to).
Juju Smith Schuster has a dead cap of $16 million this year, $12.5 next year, however they have an out after 2024 for a dead cap of just under $3 million, so he's likely going to be sticking around.
I don't think Mac Jones is tradeable right now, but if you could, his cap hit for this year is only $9 million, and next year is $5 million. With all that cap space, it's certainly an acceptable dead cap number.
I think the play here is to accumulate as much draft capital as you can, and while trades during the season might not happen, you may see a flurry of activity before the draft - and none of these cap hits are deal-breaking, considering I don't expect 2024 to be much better than 2023. The other thing to consider here is pending re-signs (like a Kyle Dugger for example, or a Mike Onwenu). Would those players even want to stay here, or would you actually want to keep them (Onwenu on that last point, that guy's fallen off a cliff).
Happy to hear your thoughts, assuming we can all reasonably agree that a raze and reset is in order here. This isn't a thread for Brady > BB, or Everything is Matt Patricia's fault, or anything like that, and you will be roundly mocked if you try it. This is a realistically 'what can be done to fix it' thread. I think it's fair to assume that Belichick will be gone if not this year than next year, when factoring in what to do.
Let's talk about it. What does a rebuild look like for you?
I just said 'Trade everyone 30+' on the team in another thread, but in reality, that's a lot easier said than done. The Patriots will be on the hook for the dead cap numbers going forward, but with ~$97 million in space for next year, it might not be the end of the world. I am assuming the Patriots won't be signing any free agents this offseason, because besides the fact you're not going to get any young talent in FA probably, who the hell is going to want to come here? (which is my reasoning for the 3rd round comp picks) The 'Over 30s' with significant dead cap hits in a trade are:
-Matt Judon ($25 million 2023, 10 million 2024), obviously he's in IR, and even if you could trade him (and I'm not sure you can), you're not going to get any return for him. Healthy and playing well, you might get a 3rd round pick for him, after this season if healthy, that value is going to be less. In reality, if he comes back and plays well next year, you might be able to score a better pick for the lesser cap hit, but at that point, you may as well let him ride it out and take the 3rd round comp pick. Or even re-sign him if he plays really well, although I doubt he'd want to stick around for a multi-year rebuild. Too bad too, I love this player.
-Hunter Henry (he's 29, but close enough) will have a pro-rated dead cap hit of $14.5 million. Again, I'm not sure what you'd get in a trade, unless you get a really desperate team willing to give up a 2nd for him, you're not going to get better than a 5th rounder - again, better off letting him ride it out and get the 3rd/4th round comp.
-Trent Brown ($5,5 million) seems like a really good candidate for a trade. You could potentially get a day 2 pick for him, minimal dead cap. I feel like if you let him ride out the season, he's a candidate for retirement, so you may end up with nothing - or he signs a really cheap contract with a contender, and you end up with a 7th round comp if you're lucky
- David Andrews ($8.1 million 2023, 1.9 million 2024) - Might want to keep him for another year, although if some team calls offering a 3rd or 4th, you'd have to think about it. He's a definite trade possibility in League Year 2024 however.
- Jon Jones ($13 million 2023, $7.5 million 2024) - I think this would be the best possible chance for a premium day 2 draft pick, and he's worth eating the cap hit for. High level CBs are always in demand
The good news with the salaries, is nobody with any significant cap hit is signed past 2024, so money drains aren't going to be an issue. The issue is, there's no one here to trade that's worth trading, where you could reasonably expect a similar talent in a replacement through the draft. Now, that's not the only reason to accumulate draft picks, the more ammo you have, the more aggressive you can be in trading up. As it stands now, the Patriots only have 8 picks next year (2 sixths), and they'll need to have a lot more than that in the gas tank, assuming they need to trade up for the #1 overall pick (although they may not need to).
Juju Smith Schuster has a dead cap of $16 million this year, $12.5 next year, however they have an out after 2024 for a dead cap of just under $3 million, so he's likely going to be sticking around.
I don't think Mac Jones is tradeable right now, but if you could, his cap hit for this year is only $9 million, and next year is $5 million. With all that cap space, it's certainly an acceptable dead cap number.
I think the play here is to accumulate as much draft capital as you can, and while trades during the season might not happen, you may see a flurry of activity before the draft - and none of these cap hits are deal-breaking, considering I don't expect 2024 to be much better than 2023. The other thing to consider here is pending re-signs (like a Kyle Dugger for example, or a Mike Onwenu). Would those players even want to stay here, or would you actually want to keep them (Onwenu on that last point, that guy's fallen off a cliff).
Happy to hear your thoughts, assuming we can all reasonably agree that a raze and reset is in order here. This isn't a thread for Brady > BB, or Everything is Matt Patricia's fault, or anything like that, and you will be roundly mocked if you try it. This is a realistically 'what can be done to fix it' thread. I think it's fair to assume that Belichick will be gone if not this year than next year, when factoring in what to do.
Let's talk about it. What does a rebuild look like for you?
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) Kraft we believe has a rep as a good/great owner. he certainly cares about winning we know that. So how does NE look to outsiders now vs. the dynasty years?