Realistic Cap Dork Shit involving Trades and Dead Cap Numbers for Rebuild

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TommyD420 said:
There aren't really any comps for this year, outside of Hunter Henry. All the cap space can be rolled over so long as they meet the floor threshold which they should.

FAs after this year:

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2024 NFL Free Agents Tracker

Tracking the status and signings of all 2024 NFL free agents.
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Outside of Henry, no one's signing any sort of large deal. I guess maybe Trent Brown.
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Stevensons value is coming down too.
 
if job 1 is new coach /gm,wouldn't it be better to get those people first then let them decide on trades,etc?
 
Building a business plan takes a lot of time. It requires clear goals from the outset and a clear path to reach the goals. Goal setting and the path to reach those goals come first in my mind.
Personnel shuffling/cap maneuvers is a different animal altogether.
I'll take the business plan approach bc that's what RKK has to decide when determining the team's future.

1. Kraft's Goal
I assume his goal for the Patriots is to build a team that can win a SB. I also assume he wants to make a profit so keeping expenses under control is also a goal.
Choosing to win a SB sounds elementary but it really isn't because that owner has to be committed to spare no expense. He has to provide the infrastructure in terms of a high quality stadium, superior practice facilities, technology, the best FO personnel, a high coaching budget, a modern training room, etc. Not all team owners care about a SB win. Some owners want to make a profit by keeping spending as low as possible (Wash, Chi, Det, as some examples). Some teams seem to be no more than a hobby for the owner (Wash, Det, and some others before new owners took over). We're fortunate that the Kraft family wants to win (and that until the last 3 years spending has never been an issue, at least that we knew about). Even so, the Patriots infrastructure was voted bottom 25% in a recent poll of team facilities by players. Maybe he could spend more in that area. He also has to decide if BB's philosophy for team building is as viable today as it was 20 years ago or if BB himself sees the value of having star players in the NFL today. He sees what we're seeing and he didn't suddenly go dumb.

Then the decision has to be whether to build a SB winner that can sustain winning or to build a team by going all in for a year or two then paying the piper for 2-3 years.
We've seen the "all in" approach succeed and some teams appear to be following that road by spending heavily for 2-3 years by pushing cap hits into the future. The Rams did just that in '22. SF, Miami and Buffalo are taking that approach for this year and next year. Other teams are in the discussion - I would include the Chargers and Philly as teams who are flirting with the thought since their total cap space for the next 3 years combined is only $78M and $98M. League average for the next 3 years is close to $200M and the Pats' cap space for the next 3 years is tops at $383M. It seems to me that BB has purposely accumulated this huge 3 year cap for a reason. Any GM, BB or someone new, could use that money to build a SB winner either way.

It's late so I'll finish my thoughts tomorrow.
 
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HSanders said:
if job 1 is new coach /gm,wouldn't it be better to get those people first then let them decide on trades,etc?
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Well the new coach is Jerod Mayo. At least for one year. I expect O'Brien will be gone, but who knows. The new GM is TBD - but Bill Belichick is not a stupid man. If his true goal is to do 'what's in the best interest of the team', like he's always said, then he should be able to see the writing on the wall, and trading what assets you have to have more ammo in the upcoming draft and rebuild.

I can't imagine Belichick thinks he can save this bunch, in 2023 not at this point. However, there's time between the end of the season and the draft - so what you say might be what ends up happening, although these assets will lose value by that time.
 
TommyD420 said:
Well the new coach is Jerod Mayo. At least for one year. I expect O'Brien will be gone, but who knows. The new GM is TBD - but Bill Belichick is not a stupid man. If his true goal is to do 'what's in the best interest of the team', like he's always said, then he should be able to see the writing on the wall, and trading what assets you have to have more ammo in the upcoming draft and rebuild.

I can't imagine Belichick thinks he can save this bunch, in 2023 not at this point. However, there's time between the end of the season and the draft - so what you say might be what ends up happening, although these assets will lose value by that time.
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I do wonder what today's meeting cancelation was all about. I think, and I am probably totally wrong, there was a long meeting between Bill, Jerod, Robert and Jonathan. My guess is, they see the writing on the wall, the playoffs are not within reach. So, they aren't fighting for a home playoff game anyways and the next logical conclusion is to look to the future. There would never be an edict to lose but I can see them discussing what's the best for the future. Remember, a no kidding, top flight QB can extend BBs run instead of what he is dealing with now.

I am 10000 percent wrong, of that I am sure. However I would like to think something like that happened.
 
TommyD420 said:
The assumption is a) RJ Gillen wants to come here and 2) that the 49ers wouldn't offer him a pay bump to stay.

The person who was DPP, Ran Carthon, the guy who actually built the current roster, was hired as the GM of the Titans at the start of this year. That's what makes the 'Hire the DPP from the 49ers as GM' a talk radio fantasy, and not a reality.

On your Bob Kraft point, I believe he wants to win - but on the other hand, I believe he's gotten too personally involved with the players (specifically Brady, but there have been others) over the last few years, and it has clouded his perception as owner, and conversely, gave too much power to Bill Belichick to run the operation himself without any oversight, and it's caused many of the issues we see today. Time for Jonathan to take over, and let's see what he can do. Better? Worse? We don't know.

In terms of how the Patriots have been perceived from the outside, I'd say 345 Park Avenue, in their quest for 'parity', have used their media arm to make sure the Patriots look like lucky cheaters and frauds, and the local media so hates that Belichick doesn't talk to them, that they gladly carry that mail as well. I think it will be quite difficult to attract not only player free agents, but new coaches - unless Jerod Mayo is some master recruiter. I don't know if he is or not.

A reminder also that this was Bob Kraft 30 years ago that hired Bill Parcells.
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agree it might be time for Robert Kraft to hand over the reigns

orthwein actually hired Parcells. Orthwein also wanted to move the team. Orthwein was 1 for 2
(wasn’t it going to be the St. Louis Stallions if he had succeeded in moving the pats?)
 
TommyD420 said:
The assumption is a) RJ Gillen wants to come here and 2) that the 49ers wouldn't offer him a pay bump to stay.

The person who was DPP, Ran Carthon, the guy who actually built the current roster, was hired as the GM of the Titans at the start of this year. That's what makes the 'Hire the DPP from the 49ers as GM' a talk radio fantasy, and not a reality.

On your Bob Kraft point, I believe he wants to win - but on the other hand, I believe he's gotten too personally involved with the players (specifically Brady, but there have been others) over the last few years, and it has clouded his perception as owner, and conversely, gave too much power to Bill Belichick to run the operation himself without any oversight, and it's caused many of the issues we see today. Time for Jonathan to take over, and let's see what he can do. Better? Worse? We don't know.

In terms of how the Patriots have been perceived from the outside, I'd say 345 Park Avenue, in their quest for 'parity', have used their media arm to make sure the Patriots look like lucky cheaters and frauds, and the local media so hates that Belichick doesn't talk to them, that they gladly carry that mail as well. I think it will be quite difficult to attract not only player free agents, but new coaches - unless Jerod Mayo is some master recruiter. I don't know if he is or not.

A reminder also that this was Bob Kraft 30 years ago that hired Bill Parcells.
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Wasn’t Parcells from the owner before?
 
ViperGTS said:
Probably a little bit of both. Little bit heavy too maybe..I dunno. Or just general f this shit who knows.
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I’ve noticed he was going slower all year. Initially, I just thought that he was playing through an injury or had a cold or something. But, he’s still not showing much pop like he used to.
 
HSanders said:
firstly,who do people want to entertain as hc,oc,dc etc? i am not convinced there's a need to move on but i am fine with considering the possibilities. and i like the line eric kuselias had that he said his parents taught him. "you can complain but you'd better have a solution."
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THAT Charlie Gordon said:
Your premise about getting comp picks is faulty. With all the cap room, it's very unlikely that the Pats get any comp picks as they'll be net bringing in FA value.
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This is true, unl
Big/Sky/Fly said:
Not sure what his problem is…injured? Sick? Lost a step already?
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The O line is the obvious place to start, there is absolutely no cohesion and no direction. Everything from there on is effected.
 
chevss454 said:
Building a business plan takes a lot of time. It requires clear goals from the outset and a clear path to reach the goals. Goal setting and the path to reach those goals come first in my mind.
Personnel shuffling/cap maneuvers is a different animal altogether.
I'll take the business plan approach bc that's what RKK has to decide when determining the team's future.

1. Kraft's Goal
I assume his goal for the Patriots is to build a team that can win a SB. I also assume he wants to make a profit so keeping expenses under control is also a goal.
Choosing to win a SB sounds elementary but it really isn't because that owner has to be committed to spare no expense. He has to provide the infrastructure in terms of a high quality stadium, superior practice facilities, technology, the best FO personnel, a high coaching budget, a modern training room, etc. Not all team owners care about a SB win. Some owners want to make a profit by keeping spending as low as possible (Wash, Chi, Det, as some examples). Some teams seem to be no more than a hobby for the owner (Wash, Det, and some others before new owners took over). We're fortunate that the Kraft family wants to win (and that until the last 3 years spending has never been an issue, at least that we knew about). Even so, the Patriots infrastructure was voted bottom 25% in a recent poll of team facilities by players. Maybe he could spend more in that area. He also has to decide if BB's philosophy for team building is as viable today as it was 20 years ago or if BB himself sees the value of having star players in the NFL today. He sees what we're seeing and he didn't suddenly go dumb.

Then the decision has to be whether to build a SB winner that can sustain winning or to build a team by going all in for a year or two then paying the piper for 2-3 years.
We've seen the "all in" approach succeed and some teams appear to be following that road by spending heavily for 2-3 years by pushing cap hits into the future. The Rams did just that in '22. SF, Miami and Buffalo are taking that approach for this year and next year. Other teams are in the discussion - I would include the Chargers and Philly as teams who are flirting with the thought since their total cap space for the next 3 years combined is only $78M and $98M. League average for the next 3 years is close to $200M and the Pats' cap space for the next 3 years is tops at $383M. It seems to me that BB has purposely accumulated this huge 3 year cap for a reason. Any GM, BB or someone new, could use that money to build a SB winner either way.

It's late so I'll finish my thoughts tomorrow.
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2. Hierarchy - Change or Status Quo
The next thing for Kraft to do is to schedule a meeting for the purpose of asking BB what his plans are for the next few years for himself personally and for the football operation. There's a lot of cap money being saved for a reason and Kraft will want to know everything BB has planned. If Kraft is comfortable with those plans then everything stays as it is now, status quo. But what if Kraft is hesitant?

In that scenario Kraft must consider a change in power structure. The first thing Kraft has to decide is whether or not he wants to continue with BB as is (absolute power as GM & HC) or separate his GM duties from his Head coaching duties. If he opts for separation, does BB want to continue at all and if he does want to continue, does he give up coaching or does he give up being the GM. Kraft won't make this decision on his own; he will most certainly discuss these things at length with BB in deference to BB's past contributions and successes. BB has earned this consideration from Kraft. If BB opts to continue as HC, Kraft will most likely agree if he's convinced BB will re-commit himself to coaching.
If BB opts for GM, Kraft has more thinking to do. He has to decide if he feels comfortable with BB at GM since more than likely BB's philosophy of building a team would continue. Kraft might see the value of more stars at skill positions from the evidence of recent successes of other teams. What then? I can see an impasse leading to a complete separation in that scenario. It's Kraft's team and he has the right to make these decisions. Then again, BB might see it the very same way! Old dogs can learn new tricks you know. These things have to be thoughtfully discussed without emotion. Their interests may align well enough to continue doing business together.

There's another strategy Kraft might take with BB that also makes good sense. Kraft knows that BB's vast knowledge is too valuable to let storm out the door. He could offer BB a highly paid consulting/personal services job with a lofty title with the Patriots. BB would make recommendations for football operations going forward, including input on HC and GM, but without the absolute power to implement those recommendations. As you can see, Kraft has many important organizational decisions coming up that will decide his team's future. It may be this year, it may be 2 years from now but it's coming and Kraft is most certainly contemplating those important decisions right now with his son, Jonathan.
 
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