Compensatory Pick information was released a couple weeks ago and is now included in the Wikipedia complete draft order for 2013 (all 7 rounds) here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_NFL_Draft
One of the purposes of this post is to give folks a handy reference for calculating mathematically-viable draft pick trades for the Pats' #29 in the 1st round. Comp picks, though not tradeable, are important in this regard in a couple ways:
- they reduce the numeric trade value of the picks below them
- a team with a comp pick that's very close to one of their own tradeable picks may be more inclined to trade the latter (e.g., Baltimore has the tradeable #129 in the 4th, and they also have the non-tradeable #130)
So, here are the potential trade partners for the Pats, NFC teams first. The Pats' #29 is worth 640 SVC, so I've highlighted the picks that a team would likely be giving up to make that trade.
The listing is: SVC trade value -- Round -- Overall Pick # (total team trade "ammo" is at the bottom of the SVC column in bold).
ARIZONA - 7 picks
1500 -- 1 --- 7
520 --- 2 -- 38
245 --- 3--- 69
88 ---- 4 - 103
36 ---- 5 - 140
22.8 -- 6 - 174
4.8 --- 7 - 219
2416.6
(IDK that they'd short themselves on picks this much. They might keep the two late-rounders and throw in a 2014 4th instead.)
ATLANTA - 11 picks
620 -- 1 --- 30
300 -- 2 --- 60
132 -- 3 --- 92
45 --- 4 -- 127
comp - 4 -- 133
27.2 -- 5 -- 163
13.2 -- 6 -- 198
1.8 --- 7 -- 236
comp - 7 -- 243
comp - 7 -- 244
comp - 7 -- 249
1139.2
(with ATL already picking at #30, a trade-up to #29 seems highly unlikely)
CAROLINA - 5 picks
1100 -- 1 -- 14
460 --- 2 -- 44
78 ---- 4 - 108
32.2 -- 5 - 148
19.6 -- 6 - 182
1689.8
(Even trading their remaining 2013 draft, the Panthers would still be short by the equivalent of a mid-4th rounder. A marginally more likely scenario would be their #44 + #148 + their 2014 2nd).
CHICAGO - 6 picks
850 -- 1 -- 20
400 -- 2 -- 50
60 --- 4 - 117
31.2 - 5 - 153
17.2 - 6 - 188
1358.4
(In an even worse situation than the Panthers, ammo-wise, the Bears would need to offer their 2014 1st + their #117, though that wouldn't do the Pats much good for this draft, and I'm not at all sure that a new regime would do that anyway.)
DALLAS - 6 picks
900 -- 1 -- 18
430 -- 2 -- 47
190 -- 3 -- 80
66 --- 4 - 114
31 --- 5 - 151
18.4 - 6 - 185
1635.4
(Works nicely, math-wise, but Jerrah doesn't seem to trade with BB very often.)
DETROIT - 8 picks
1700 - 1 --- 5
540 -- 2 -- 36
265 -- 3 -- 65
comp - 4 - 132
37.5 -- 5 - 137
24 ---- 6 - 171
8 ----- 7 - 211
comp - 7 - 245
2574.5
(The Lions would also have to throw in a 2014 4th or 5th to balance this out.)
GREEN BAY - 8 picks
700 -- 1 -- 26
350 -- 2 -- 55
150 -- 3 -- 88
50 --- 4 - 122
28.8 - 5 - 159
comp 5 - 167
15.2 - 6 - 193
2.2 -- 7 - 232
1296.2
(I don't see the Packers trading back up to the #29 unless they've previously traded down from their #26, at which point they'd probably have the "ammo".)
MINNESOTA - 11 picks
760 -- 1 -- 23
720 -- 1 -- 25
380 -- 2 -- 52
175 -- 3 -- 83
92 --- 4 - 102
54 --- 4 - 120
30.4 - 5 - 155
16.8 - 6 - 189
7.2 -- 7 - 213
6.8 -- 7 - 214
2.5 -- 7 - 229
2244.7
(I could see Minny doing this to end up with three 1st-rounders while retaining six Day-3 picks.)
NEW ORLEANS - 5 picks (forfeited #46, 2nd round, over "Bountygate")
1050 -- 1 -- 15
215 --- 3 -- 75
76 ---- 4 - 109
34 ---- 5 - 144
19.2 -- 6 - 183
1394.2
(As with Chicago, they'd have to trade their 2014 1st-rounder + their 2013 4th, but that doesn't help the Pats at all this year.)
NEW YORK GIANTS - 8 picks
875 -- 1 -- 19
410 -- 2 -- 49
185 -- 3 -- 81
62 --- 4 - 116
31.8 - 5 - 152
17.6 - 6 - 187
2.9 -- 7 - 225
comp 7 - 253
1584.3
(Seems very "un-Giants-like". Trading their #49, #116, #152 and their 2014 3rd also works mathematically, but also doesn't seem like something the Giants would do, particularly for the Pats.)
PHILADELPHIA - 9 picks
1800 -- 1 -- 4
550 --- 2 -- 35
255 --- 3 -- 67
96 ---- 4 - 101
38 ---- 5 - 136
8.4 --- 7 -- 210
7.6 --- 7 -- 212
5.2 --- 7 - 218
comp - 7 - 239
2760.2
(IDK whether Reid being gone makes this less likely or more likely. If Philly has traded down out of the #4 spot, thus picking up more "ammo", THAT probably makes this potentially much more likely.)
SAN FRANCISCO - 12 picks (3 comps on top of everything else!)
600 --- 1 -- 31
292 --- 2 -- 61
220 --- 3 -- 74
128 --- 3 -- 93
44 ---- 4 - 128
comp - 4 - 131
29.6 -- 5 - 157
23.2 -- 6 - 173
20.4 -- 6 - 180
1.7 --- 7 - 237
comp - 7 - 246
comp - 7 - 252
1358.9
(I could see the Niners offering the above to jump up over ATL, but the #31 that the Pats would get might actually be a bit less desirable to other teams. Trading their #61, #74 and #93 also works mathematically, but doesn't make a lot of sense to me, even though they'd retain seven Day-3 picks afterward.)
SEATTLE - 10 picks (their 1st-rounder went for Harvin)
340 -- 2 -- 56
155 -- 3 -- 87
49 --- 4 - 123
37 --- 5 - 138
29.2 - 5 - 158
14.8 - 6 - 194
4.4 -- 7 - 220
2.3 -- 7 - 231
comp 7 -- 241
comp 7 -- 242
631.7
(Obvously, their entire remaining, tradeable 2013 draft doesn't cover the 640 for the #29. Otherwise, it's the same as the Chicago trade scenario and doesn't help the Pats in 2013.)
ST. LOUIS - 8 picks
1000 -- 1 -- 16
780 --- 1 -- 22
440 --- 2 -- 46
200 --- 3 -- 78
68 ---- 4 - 113
31.8 -- 5 - 149
18.8 -- 6 - 184
3.6 --- 7 - 222
2542.2
(Seems as reasonable as the Minny trade scenario, and for similar reasons.)
TAMPA BAY - 8 picks
1150 -- 1 -- 13
470 --- 2 -- 43
225 --- 3 -- 73
70 ---- 4 - 112
46 ---- 4 - 126
32.6 -- 5 - 147
20 ---- 6 - 181
14 ---- 6 - 196
2027.6
(These three for the Pats' #29 and #91 seems eminently reasonable, even though it comes out about 11 points short on the Pats' end. The fact that BB and Schiano appear to have a very god working relationship may make this a highly likely scenario.)
WASHINGTON - 7 picks (1st rounder went to STL for RGIII in 2012)
390 -- 2 -- 51
165 -- 3 -- 85
56 --- 4 - 119
30.8 - 5 - 154
27.6 - 5 - 162
16 --- 6 - 191
2.6 -- 7 - 228
688
(Their entire remaining 2013 draft barely covers the 640, but I could kinda see them trading their #51 + #119 + their 2014 2nd-rounder for the #29 and BB accepting that.)
---------------
AFC team list to follow at some point, hopefully today.
!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_NFL_Draft
One of the purposes of this post is to give folks a handy reference for calculating mathematically-viable draft pick trades for the Pats' #29 in the 1st round. Comp picks, though not tradeable, are important in this regard in a couple ways:
- they reduce the numeric trade value of the picks below them
- a team with a comp pick that's very close to one of their own tradeable picks may be more inclined to trade the latter (e.g., Baltimore has the tradeable #129 in the 4th, and they also have the non-tradeable #130)
So, here are the potential trade partners for the Pats, NFC teams first. The Pats' #29 is worth 640 SVC, so I've highlighted the picks that a team would likely be giving up to make that trade.
The listing is: SVC trade value -- Round -- Overall Pick # (total team trade "ammo" is at the bottom of the SVC column in bold).
ARIZONA - 7 picks
1500 -- 1 --- 7
520 --- 2 -- 38
245 --- 3--- 69
88 ---- 4 - 103
36 ---- 5 - 140
22.8 -- 6 - 174
4.8 --- 7 - 219
2416.6
(IDK that they'd short themselves on picks this much. They might keep the two late-rounders and throw in a 2014 4th instead.)
ATLANTA - 11 picks
620 -- 1 --- 30
300 -- 2 --- 60
132 -- 3 --- 92
45 --- 4 -- 127
comp - 4 -- 133
27.2 -- 5 -- 163
13.2 -- 6 -- 198
1.8 --- 7 -- 236
comp - 7 -- 243
comp - 7 -- 244
comp - 7 -- 249
1139.2
(with ATL already picking at #30, a trade-up to #29 seems highly unlikely)
CAROLINA - 5 picks
1100 -- 1 -- 14
460 --- 2 -- 44
78 ---- 4 - 108
32.2 -- 5 - 148
19.6 -- 6 - 182
1689.8
(Even trading their remaining 2013 draft, the Panthers would still be short by the equivalent of a mid-4th rounder. A marginally more likely scenario would be their #44 + #148 + their 2014 2nd).
CHICAGO - 6 picks
850 -- 1 -- 20
400 -- 2 -- 50
60 --- 4 - 117
31.2 - 5 - 153
17.2 - 6 - 188
1358.4
(In an even worse situation than the Panthers, ammo-wise, the Bears would need to offer their 2014 1st + their #117, though that wouldn't do the Pats much good for this draft, and I'm not at all sure that a new regime would do that anyway.)
DALLAS - 6 picks
900 -- 1 -- 18
430 -- 2 -- 47
190 -- 3 -- 80
66 --- 4 - 114
31 --- 5 - 151
18.4 - 6 - 185
1635.4
(Works nicely, math-wise, but Jerrah doesn't seem to trade with BB very often.)
DETROIT - 8 picks
1700 - 1 --- 5
540 -- 2 -- 36
265 -- 3 -- 65
comp - 4 - 132
37.5 -- 5 - 137
24 ---- 6 - 171
8 ----- 7 - 211
comp - 7 - 245
2574.5
(The Lions would also have to throw in a 2014 4th or 5th to balance this out.)
GREEN BAY - 8 picks
700 -- 1 -- 26
350 -- 2 -- 55
150 -- 3 -- 88
50 --- 4 - 122
28.8 - 5 - 159
comp 5 - 167
15.2 - 6 - 193
2.2 -- 7 - 232
1296.2
(I don't see the Packers trading back up to the #29 unless they've previously traded down from their #26, at which point they'd probably have the "ammo".)
MINNESOTA - 11 picks
760 -- 1 -- 23
720 -- 1 -- 25
380 -- 2 -- 52
175 -- 3 -- 83
92 --- 4 - 102
54 --- 4 - 120
30.4 - 5 - 155
16.8 - 6 - 189
7.2 -- 7 - 213
6.8 -- 7 - 214
2.5 -- 7 - 229
2244.7
(I could see Minny doing this to end up with three 1st-rounders while retaining six Day-3 picks.)
NEW ORLEANS - 5 picks (forfeited #46, 2nd round, over "Bountygate")
1050 -- 1 -- 15
215 --- 3 -- 75
76 ---- 4 - 109
34 ---- 5 - 144
19.2 -- 6 - 183
1394.2
(As with Chicago, they'd have to trade their 2014 1st-rounder + their 2013 4th, but that doesn't help the Pats at all this year.)
NEW YORK GIANTS - 8 picks
875 -- 1 -- 19
410 -- 2 -- 49
185 -- 3 -- 81
62 --- 4 - 116
31.8 - 5 - 152
17.6 - 6 - 187
2.9 -- 7 - 225
comp 7 - 253
1584.3
(Seems very "un-Giants-like". Trading their #49, #116, #152 and their 2014 3rd also works mathematically, but also doesn't seem like something the Giants would do, particularly for the Pats.)
PHILADELPHIA - 9 picks
1800 -- 1 -- 4
550 --- 2 -- 35
255 --- 3 -- 67
96 ---- 4 - 101
38 ---- 5 - 136
8.4 --- 7 -- 210
7.6 --- 7 -- 212
5.2 --- 7 - 218
comp - 7 - 239
2760.2
(IDK whether Reid being gone makes this less likely or more likely. If Philly has traded down out of the #4 spot, thus picking up more "ammo", THAT probably makes this potentially much more likely.)
SAN FRANCISCO - 12 picks (3 comps on top of everything else!)
600 --- 1 -- 31
292 --- 2 -- 61
220 --- 3 -- 74
128 --- 3 -- 93
44 ---- 4 - 128
comp - 4 - 131
29.6 -- 5 - 157
23.2 -- 6 - 173
20.4 -- 6 - 180
1.7 --- 7 - 237
comp - 7 - 246
comp - 7 - 252
1358.9
(I could see the Niners offering the above to jump up over ATL, but the #31 that the Pats would get might actually be a bit less desirable to other teams. Trading their #61, #74 and #93 also works mathematically, but doesn't make a lot of sense to me, even though they'd retain seven Day-3 picks afterward.)
SEATTLE - 10 picks (their 1st-rounder went for Harvin)
340 -- 2 -- 56
155 -- 3 -- 87
49 --- 4 - 123
37 --- 5 - 138
29.2 - 5 - 158
14.8 - 6 - 194
4.4 -- 7 - 220
2.3 -- 7 - 231
comp 7 -- 241
comp 7 -- 242
631.7
(Obvously, their entire remaining, tradeable 2013 draft doesn't cover the 640 for the #29. Otherwise, it's the same as the Chicago trade scenario and doesn't help the Pats in 2013.)
ST. LOUIS - 8 picks
1000 -- 1 -- 16
780 --- 1 -- 22
440 --- 2 -- 46
200 --- 3 -- 78
68 ---- 4 - 113
31.8 -- 5 - 149
18.8 -- 6 - 184
3.6 --- 7 - 222
2542.2
(Seems as reasonable as the Minny trade scenario, and for similar reasons.)
TAMPA BAY - 8 picks
1150 -- 1 -- 13
470 --- 2 -- 43
225 --- 3 -- 73
70 ---- 4 - 112
46 ---- 4 - 126
32.6 -- 5 - 147
20 ---- 6 - 181
14 ---- 6 - 196
2027.6
(These three for the Pats' #29 and #91 seems eminently reasonable, even though it comes out about 11 points short on the Pats' end. The fact that BB and Schiano appear to have a very god working relationship may make this a highly likely scenario.)
WASHINGTON - 7 picks (1st rounder went to STL for RGIII in 2012)
390 -- 2 -- 51
165 -- 3 -- 85
56 --- 4 - 119
30.8 - 5 - 154
27.6 - 5 - 162
16 --- 6 - 191
2.6 -- 7 - 228
688
(Their entire remaining 2013 draft barely covers the 640, but I could kinda see them trading their #51 + #119 + their 2014 2nd-rounder for the #29 and BB accepting that.)
---------------
AFC team list to follow at some point, hopefully today.
!
