First, a look at 2013 production vs. cap hit for the most highly-paid guys in the league in order to get a context for projecting price ranges vis-a-vis the Pats' cap (rather than projecting in a total vacuum).
NOTES:
- These are the Top-25 cap hits (not salaries) for TEs in 2013 (Spotrac), divided into tiers of five with averages for each tier.
- I didn't included IR'd sesons in calculating career averages, nor rookie seasons if they were ridiculously different from the rest of a guy's career.
- My guess is that both Chandler and Pettigrew jump up into the 2nd tier for their new contracts. Maybe not for 2014, but almost certainly escalating to that level (and maybe above) fairly quickly.
- Pitta probably jumps a couple tiers
- Fred Davis might be signed for vet minimum for Camp.
Player(Team) --- AGE, Hgt/Wgt -- 2013 Hit -- Gms - [2013 Stats (career avg)] --- 2014 Hit -- Cut savings
Z.Miller (SEA) -- 28, 6-5/256 --- $11.000M -- 14 -- [33/387, 5TD (46/532, 3TD)] -- $7.000M --- $5.000M
Finley* (GBY) -- 26, 6-4/240 ---- $8.750M --- 6 -- [25/300, 3TD (43/542, 4TD)] ---- UFA
V.Davis (SFO) -- 29, 6-3/250 ---- $8.740M -- 15 -- [52/850, 13TD (49/650, 9 TD] - $7.368M --- $3.200M
Gates (SDG) --- 33, 6-4/260 ---- $6.863M -- 16 -- [77/872, 4TD (65/836, 8 TD] -- $7.363M --- $2.600M
H.Miller (PIT) -- 31, 6-5/256 ---- $6.459M -- 14 -- [58/593, 1TD (52/585, 4TD] --- $9.467M --- $6.000M
AVERAGE --------------------- $8.362M
*Finley finished the year on IR (spine). Assuming he can still play in 2014, I doubt he sees more than $5M from GBY.
- Zach Miller was way overpaid by the 'Hawks, but they have the leverage in renegotiations.
Daniels* (HOU) - 31, 6-3/245 ---- $5.750M --- 5 -- [24/252, 3TD (51/623, 4 TD)] - $6.250M --- $4.500M
Lewis* (JAX) --- 29, 6-6/255 ---- $5.750M -- 11 -- [25/359, 4TD (41/494, 3TD)] -- $8.250M --- $5.400M
Celek (PHL) ---- 28, 6-4/261 ---- $4.531M -- 16 -- [32/502, 6TD (49/633, 4TD)] -- $4.075M --- $4.075M
Witten (DAL) --- 31, 6-5/257 ---- $4.352M -- 16 -- [73/851, 8TD (84/945, 5 TD)] - $8.412M --- $0.200M
Keller* (MIA) --- 29, 6-2/248 ---- $4.250M --- 0 -- [0/0, 0 (48/575, 3TD)] --------- UFA
AVERAGE ----------------------- $4.927M
* Daniels finished the season on IR (broken leg), but his per-game production was good before that.
* Lewis battled "ankle/leg" injuries all season long and missed a few games, but he'll likely see a renegotiation.
* Keller got his knee blown up in Camp and spent the season on IR, They might re-sign him for similar money.
- Witten finally sees Top-5 money in 2014 for his Top-5 production.
Casey, FB (PHL)- 29, 6-3/235 ---- $4.015 --- 15 -- [3/31, 0 TD (14/190, 1 TD)] -- $3.985M --- $3.985M
Cook (STL) ----- 26, 6-4/235 ---- $4.000 --- 16 -- [51/671, 5TD (43/578, 3 TD)] - $7.000M --- $5.000M
Stevens, FB (TEN)29, 6-3/255 ---- $3.500 --- 15 -- [2/5, 0TD (14/188, 1 TD)] ---- $4.000M --- $2.400M
Pettigrew (DET)-- 28, 6-5/257 ---- $3.470 --- 14 -- [41/416, 2TD (57/565, 3TD)] ---- UFA
Tamme (DEN) ---- 28, 6-4/234 ---- $3.458 --- 16 -- [20/184, 1TD (39/387, 2 TD)] - $3.833M --- $3.000M
AVERAGE ----------------------- $3.689M
- Philly way overpaid (FB) Casey, even based on his 2012 season in HOU (34/330, 3 TDs)
- Titans allowed Cook to walk and he produced Top-5 stats for STL (he gets Top-5 money in 2014, though)
-- Titans instead paid (FB) Stevens nearly the same as Cook received and got bupkis for it.
--- Meanwhile, the Pats paid Develin a mere $570k and got more production than Casey and Stevens combined. Hooman got $630k and out-produced the 3 of them.
- With Thomas and Green now in DEN, Tamme may be a bit superfluous. A renegotiation at least, I'd guess.
Dreessen (DEN) - 31, 6-4/260 ---- $3.333 --- 13 -- [7/47, 1TD (33/387, 4TD)] ---- $3.333M --- $2.500M
Olsen (CAR) ---- 28, 6-6/254 ---- $3.300 --- 16 -- [73/816, 6TD (54/597, 5TD)] -- $7.800M --- $2.000M
Chandler (BUF) - 28, 6-7/270 ---- $2.975 --- 16 -- [53/655, 2TD (45/538, 5TD)] ---- UFA
Walker (TEN) --- 29, 6-1/241 ---- $2.950 --- 16 -- [60/571, 6TD (20/239, 1 TD)] - $4.000M --- $0.200M
Gronk (NE) ----- 24, 6-6/265 ---- $2.750 ---- 7 -- [39/592, 4TD (56/811, 10TD)] - $5.400M
AVERAGE ----------------------- $3.062M
- Dreessen had 4 decent years in HOU before going to DEN in 2013 where he was certainly not worth the money.
- What the Titans overpaid for Stevens was offset a bit by Walker's stunning jump in production over his SFO stint.
- Olsen has given CAR Top-5 production for 2 years and sees Top-5 money, finally, in 2014.
- Stunning what Gronk produced in just 7 games compared to many of these other guys.
Carlson (MIN) --- 29, 6-5/256 ---- $2.550 --- 13 -- [32/344, 1TD (35/381, 3TD)] -- $5.000M --- $2.000M
Davis (WAS) ---- 28, 6-3/250 ---- $2.500 --- 10 -- [7/70, 1TD (38/486, 3TD)] ------ UFA
Fasano (KCY) --- 29, 6-4/250 ---- $2.375 ---- 9* - [23/200, 3TDs (40/460, 4TD)] - $4.875M --- $1.500M
Gresham (CIN) -- 25, 6-5/261 ---- $2.297 --- 14 -- [46/458, 5TDs (54/565, 5TD)] - $4.332M --- $3.100M
Pitta* (BAL) ---- 28, 6-4/245 ---- $2.023 ---- 4* - [20/169, 1TD (50/537, 5TD)] ---- UFA
AVERAGE ----------------------- $2.349M
- Carlson avg'd 53/600, 6 TDS his first two seasons (SEA), but hasn't been nearly the same guy since; overpaid in 2014.
- Fred Davis only shows up on the 'Skins 2013 injury report for a couple games; he simply didn't produce compared to Reed/Paulsen.
* Fasano was simply dinged-up with ankle/knee injuries and a concussion. Still, $5M seems like a lot, even for his MIA avg production.
NOTES:
- These are the Top-25 cap hits (not salaries) for TEs in 2013 (Spotrac), divided into tiers of five with averages for each tier.
- I didn't included IR'd sesons in calculating career averages, nor rookie seasons if they were ridiculously different from the rest of a guy's career.
- My guess is that both Chandler and Pettigrew jump up into the 2nd tier for their new contracts. Maybe not for 2014, but almost certainly escalating to that level (and maybe above) fairly quickly.
- Pitta probably jumps a couple tiers
- Fred Davis might be signed for vet minimum for Camp.
Player(Team) --- AGE, Hgt/Wgt -- 2013 Hit -- Gms - [2013 Stats (career avg)] --- 2014 Hit -- Cut savings
Z.Miller (SEA) -- 28, 6-5/256 --- $11.000M -- 14 -- [33/387, 5TD (46/532, 3TD)] -- $7.000M --- $5.000M
Finley* (GBY) -- 26, 6-4/240 ---- $8.750M --- 6 -- [25/300, 3TD (43/542, 4TD)] ---- UFA
V.Davis (SFO) -- 29, 6-3/250 ---- $8.740M -- 15 -- [52/850, 13TD (49/650, 9 TD] - $7.368M --- $3.200M
Gates (SDG) --- 33, 6-4/260 ---- $6.863M -- 16 -- [77/872, 4TD (65/836, 8 TD] -- $7.363M --- $2.600M
H.Miller (PIT) -- 31, 6-5/256 ---- $6.459M -- 14 -- [58/593, 1TD (52/585, 4TD] --- $9.467M --- $6.000M
AVERAGE --------------------- $8.362M
*Finley finished the year on IR (spine). Assuming he can still play in 2014, I doubt he sees more than $5M from GBY.
- Zach Miller was way overpaid by the 'Hawks, but they have the leverage in renegotiations.
Daniels* (HOU) - 31, 6-3/245 ---- $5.750M --- 5 -- [24/252, 3TD (51/623, 4 TD)] - $6.250M --- $4.500M
Lewis* (JAX) --- 29, 6-6/255 ---- $5.750M -- 11 -- [25/359, 4TD (41/494, 3TD)] -- $8.250M --- $5.400M
Celek (PHL) ---- 28, 6-4/261 ---- $4.531M -- 16 -- [32/502, 6TD (49/633, 4TD)] -- $4.075M --- $4.075M
Witten (DAL) --- 31, 6-5/257 ---- $4.352M -- 16 -- [73/851, 8TD (84/945, 5 TD)] - $8.412M --- $0.200M
Keller* (MIA) --- 29, 6-2/248 ---- $4.250M --- 0 -- [0/0, 0 (48/575, 3TD)] --------- UFA
AVERAGE ----------------------- $4.927M
* Daniels finished the season on IR (broken leg), but his per-game production was good before that.
* Lewis battled "ankle/leg" injuries all season long and missed a few games, but he'll likely see a renegotiation.
* Keller got his knee blown up in Camp and spent the season on IR, They might re-sign him for similar money.
- Witten finally sees Top-5 money in 2014 for his Top-5 production.
Casey, FB (PHL)- 29, 6-3/235 ---- $4.015 --- 15 -- [3/31, 0 TD (14/190, 1 TD)] -- $3.985M --- $3.985M
Cook (STL) ----- 26, 6-4/235 ---- $4.000 --- 16 -- [51/671, 5TD (43/578, 3 TD)] - $7.000M --- $5.000M
Stevens, FB (TEN)29, 6-3/255 ---- $3.500 --- 15 -- [2/5, 0TD (14/188, 1 TD)] ---- $4.000M --- $2.400M
Pettigrew (DET)-- 28, 6-5/257 ---- $3.470 --- 14 -- [41/416, 2TD (57/565, 3TD)] ---- UFA
Tamme (DEN) ---- 28, 6-4/234 ---- $3.458 --- 16 -- [20/184, 1TD (39/387, 2 TD)] - $3.833M --- $3.000M
AVERAGE ----------------------- $3.689M
- Philly way overpaid (FB) Casey, even based on his 2012 season in HOU (34/330, 3 TDs)
- Titans allowed Cook to walk and he produced Top-5 stats for STL (he gets Top-5 money in 2014, though)
-- Titans instead paid (FB) Stevens nearly the same as Cook received and got bupkis for it.
--- Meanwhile, the Pats paid Develin a mere $570k and got more production than Casey and Stevens combined. Hooman got $630k and out-produced the 3 of them.
- With Thomas and Green now in DEN, Tamme may be a bit superfluous. A renegotiation at least, I'd guess.
Dreessen (DEN) - 31, 6-4/260 ---- $3.333 --- 13 -- [7/47, 1TD (33/387, 4TD)] ---- $3.333M --- $2.500M
Olsen (CAR) ---- 28, 6-6/254 ---- $3.300 --- 16 -- [73/816, 6TD (54/597, 5TD)] -- $7.800M --- $2.000M
Chandler (BUF) - 28, 6-7/270 ---- $2.975 --- 16 -- [53/655, 2TD (45/538, 5TD)] ---- UFA
Walker (TEN) --- 29, 6-1/241 ---- $2.950 --- 16 -- [60/571, 6TD (20/239, 1 TD)] - $4.000M --- $0.200M
Gronk (NE) ----- 24, 6-6/265 ---- $2.750 ---- 7 -- [39/592, 4TD (56/811, 10TD)] - $5.400M
AVERAGE ----------------------- $3.062M
- Dreessen had 4 decent years in HOU before going to DEN in 2013 where he was certainly not worth the money.
- What the Titans overpaid for Stevens was offset a bit by Walker's stunning jump in production over his SFO stint.
- Olsen has given CAR Top-5 production for 2 years and sees Top-5 money, finally, in 2014.
- Stunning what Gronk produced in just 7 games compared to many of these other guys.
Carlson (MIN) --- 29, 6-5/256 ---- $2.550 --- 13 -- [32/344, 1TD (35/381, 3TD)] -- $5.000M --- $2.000M
Davis (WAS) ---- 28, 6-3/250 ---- $2.500 --- 10 -- [7/70, 1TD (38/486, 3TD)] ------ UFA
Fasano (KCY) --- 29, 6-4/250 ---- $2.375 ---- 9* - [23/200, 3TDs (40/460, 4TD)] - $4.875M --- $1.500M
Gresham (CIN) -- 25, 6-5/261 ---- $2.297 --- 14 -- [46/458, 5TDs (54/565, 5TD)] - $4.332M --- $3.100M
Pitta* (BAL) ---- 28, 6-4/245 ---- $2.023 ---- 4* - [20/169, 1TD (50/537, 5TD)] ---- UFA
AVERAGE ----------------------- $2.349M
- Carlson avg'd 53/600, 6 TDS his first two seasons (SEA), but hasn't been nearly the same guy since; overpaid in 2014.
- Fred Davis only shows up on the 'Skins 2013 injury report for a couple games; he simply didn't produce compared to Reed/Paulsen.
* Fasano was simply dinged-up with ankle/knee injuries and a concussion. Still, $5M seems like a lot, even for his MIA avg production.
