daedge
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- Jun 14, 2007
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- www.coltfreaks.com
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/10233959
(June 22, 2007) -- Does age matter when putting long-term deals together? Of course it should. But each position should also be viewed separately. I took a look at the age of the top producers at a number of positions to clarify what the age tolerance is at each spot. For example, is a 32-year-old wide receiver the same as a 32-year-old running back?
Speaking of running backs, the first thing that jumped out at me was the volatility at the position. Of the top 25 rushers last year, six have changed teams for the upcoming season. Travis Henry (ranked 10th), Thomas Jones (11th), Jamal Lewis (16th), Ahman Green (19th) Tatum Bell (22nd) and Willis McGahee (24th) are all moving on to new employers. As a group, these players average seven years of experience and the ripe old age of 28. Is that the turning point where a team just decides it can't engage in another big contract? The average age of the top nine rushers last year was 26. It really is starting to look like there's a significant difference in two to three years when a back is closing in on his 30th birthday. And as great as Larry Johnson is, he will turn 28 in November and at that age he might be deemed too old for a long-term deal. Tiki Barber walked away from the game at the ripe old age of 31, but Barber's age wouldn't be much of an issue at other positions.
Age will be a key issue when RB Larry Johnson (27) is ready to cash in on a long-term deal.
The top 19 wide receivers all return to the team they worked for last year. Only the 20th, Keyshawn Johnson, announced he was retiring. Not one of the others was cut or traded. By the number of receptions, Marvin Harrison (ranked No. 3), Torry Holt (No. 4), Donald Driver (No. 5), Laveranues Coles (No. 6), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (No. 7), Terrell Owens (No. 10), Isaac Bruce (No. 16), Hines Ward (No. 17), and Terry Glenn (No. 18) are all going to be 30 or older by the end of the 2007 season. Owens caught the most touchdown passes last year with 13. And with Bruce being 35 years old, it seems clear that a long-term contract to a 28-year-old receiver makes better business sense. However, there really doesn't appear to be significant diminishing skills when a top quality wide receiver hit his 30th birthday.
Quarterbacks seem to get even better as they cross the three-decade mark in their life. Peyton Manning will be 31 this season. Jeff Garcia will be 37, while Brett Favre, who turned 30 back in the 1999 season, has thrown 201 touchdowns to just 135 interceptions since then. The Dolphins just traded for 37-year-old Trent Green, while Rams QB Marc Bulger turns 30 this year and his contract is due to expire. But for Bulger, age will not be a factor in getting a long-term deal. No one thinks of Tom Brady as being old just yet either, even though he turns 30 in August.
The big money on defensive players goes to pass rushers and cover corners. No one thinks of Jason Taylor (age 33) and Warren Sapp (35), who combined for 23½ sacks last season, as over-the-hill. The average age of the top 10 players in sacks was 28 last year, and that group included Leonard Little, Trevor Pryce, Aaron Schobel and Taylor who were all over 30. As for cover corners, scheme has a lot to do with age. Teams playing a lot of Cover 2 zone can get away with older players, but teams employing man-to-man schemes tend to need younger players.
Finally, the modern athletes can play longer than the players of a few decades ago and new technologies like Nike vision, diet and strength training, will prolong careers. But when it comes to long-term contracts that are going to bring players well past their 30th birthday, there are just a few positions that qualify as good business decisions. A five-year deal with 40 percent of the money guaranteed would make sense for a 30-year-old quarterback, a 26-year-old running back, a 29-year-old wide receiver, a 28-year-old pass rusher and a 25-year-old cover corner.
(June 22, 2007) -- Does age matter when putting long-term deals together? Of course it should. But each position should also be viewed separately. I took a look at the age of the top producers at a number of positions to clarify what the age tolerance is at each spot. For example, is a 32-year-old wide receiver the same as a 32-year-old running back?
Speaking of running backs, the first thing that jumped out at me was the volatility at the position. Of the top 25 rushers last year, six have changed teams for the upcoming season. Travis Henry (ranked 10th), Thomas Jones (11th), Jamal Lewis (16th), Ahman Green (19th) Tatum Bell (22nd) and Willis McGahee (24th) are all moving on to new employers. As a group, these players average seven years of experience and the ripe old age of 28. Is that the turning point where a team just decides it can't engage in another big contract? The average age of the top nine rushers last year was 26. It really is starting to look like there's a significant difference in two to three years when a back is closing in on his 30th birthday. And as great as Larry Johnson is, he will turn 28 in November and at that age he might be deemed too old for a long-term deal. Tiki Barber walked away from the game at the ripe old age of 31, but Barber's age wouldn't be much of an issue at other positions.
Age will be a key issue when RB Larry Johnson (27) is ready to cash in on a long-term deal.
The top 19 wide receivers all return to the team they worked for last year. Only the 20th, Keyshawn Johnson, announced he was retiring. Not one of the others was cut or traded. By the number of receptions, Marvin Harrison (ranked No. 3), Torry Holt (No. 4), Donald Driver (No. 5), Laveranues Coles (No. 6), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (No. 7), Terrell Owens (No. 10), Isaac Bruce (No. 16), Hines Ward (No. 17), and Terry Glenn (No. 18) are all going to be 30 or older by the end of the 2007 season. Owens caught the most touchdown passes last year with 13. And with Bruce being 35 years old, it seems clear that a long-term contract to a 28-year-old receiver makes better business sense. However, there really doesn't appear to be significant diminishing skills when a top quality wide receiver hit his 30th birthday.
Quarterbacks seem to get even better as they cross the three-decade mark in their life. Peyton Manning will be 31 this season. Jeff Garcia will be 37, while Brett Favre, who turned 30 back in the 1999 season, has thrown 201 touchdowns to just 135 interceptions since then. The Dolphins just traded for 37-year-old Trent Green, while Rams QB Marc Bulger turns 30 this year and his contract is due to expire. But for Bulger, age will not be a factor in getting a long-term deal. No one thinks of Tom Brady as being old just yet either, even though he turns 30 in August.
The big money on defensive players goes to pass rushers and cover corners. No one thinks of Jason Taylor (age 33) and Warren Sapp (35), who combined for 23½ sacks last season, as over-the-hill. The average age of the top 10 players in sacks was 28 last year, and that group included Leonard Little, Trevor Pryce, Aaron Schobel and Taylor who were all over 30. As for cover corners, scheme has a lot to do with age. Teams playing a lot of Cover 2 zone can get away with older players, but teams employing man-to-man schemes tend to need younger players.
Finally, the modern athletes can play longer than the players of a few decades ago and new technologies like Nike vision, diet and strength training, will prolong careers. But when it comes to long-term contracts that are going to bring players well past their 30th birthday, there are just a few positions that qualify as good business decisions. A five-year deal with 40 percent of the money guaranteed would make sense for a 30-year-old quarterback, a 26-year-old running back, a 29-year-old wide receiver, a 28-year-old pass rusher and a 25-year-old cover corner.
