Or how to predict a legit SB winner. (Trevor Siemian isn't the answer) 1 of 2 posts
Build a Dominant Unit
We have gotten used to the best overall team failing to win many championships in this era. Since 2000, only the 2002 Buccaneers and 2013 Seahawks won the Super Bowl after ranking No. 1 in total DVOA. But we have seen more instances of the No. 1 offense (six) or the No. 1 defense (five) coming through for a total of 11 rings. Ten more units ranked in the top three also finished the season on top, meaning 21 of the 27 Super Bowl winners fielded at least one top-three unit. For the losers, it was 15 teams, but that is still more than half.
In all six cases where a team won with a unit ranked in the 20s, the other side of the ball was always a top-two dominant unit. Only five of the 54 Super Bowl teams ranked outside of the top 10 on both sides of the ball. Technically, a team ranking 12th on both sides of the ball would be above average and balanced, but that type of team does not have much playoff success. Since 1989, 29 teams ranked in the 11-to-16 range on both offense and defense. Only 13 made the playoffs, compiling a 12-12 record, with the Patriots of 1996 and 2001 being the only teams to reach the Super Bowl. (This has been part of the problem for Marvin Lewis in compiling a historically bad 0-7 playoff record in Cincinnati. The rankings of his average playoff teams have been 13.6 on offense and 13.0 on defense. The three top-five units he did bring to the playoffs failed to show up on game day in the postseason.)
That stronger top-10 balance sure feels ideal, but only two of the last 10 champions fit that definition (2010 Packers and 2013 Seahawks). Before the turn of the century, eight balanced teams won from 1989 to 1999. Having confidence that at least one of your units will show up in grand fashion is very appealing. Even though the imbalanced winners were split among offense and defense, most fans would probably still pick the great defense. "Defense wins championships" carries validity, and 2015 only served as a reminder.
Rome Wasn't Built in a Day Either
Most of the dominant units that carried teams to championships were not built in one season. It can take years to put that type of talent together. There is also the idea of "learning to win" in the playoffs, where the intensity and importance of each moment is intensified. There are often-cited examples of this in other sports. Wayne Gretzky and the Edmonton Oilers needed five seasons to win their first title, advancing a step further each year and tasting defeat in the Stanley Cup Finals before finally winning the first of five titles in 1984. Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls needed seven postseasons to rise to the top of the Eastern Conference, finally vanquish the Detroit Pistons and go on to win six NBA titles in the 1990s.
Due to the NFL's shorter seasons and one-and-done playoff system, upsets and randomness are a lot more common. But there are still examples of teams that needed to overcome and learn from some heart-breaking defeats before realizing what it took to finish the job. The Ravens (2008-2012) and Broncos (2011-2015) just recently completed five-year journeys to rings. Were the 2012 Ravens and 2015 Broncos the strongest teams among those runs? No -- in fact, you could argue that the 2012 Ravens were John Harbaugh's weakest playoff team, and that the 2015 Broncos were the weakest Denver club since Manning arrived in 2012. But those were the years where things all worked out for both teams. Joe Flacco had a spotty playoff history early in his career, but led a very productive offense in those four games on his way to the richest contract in NFL history at the time. Denver learned a lot from the Super Bowl XLVIII ass-kicking to Seattle that a stronger defense was the way to go, and John Elway improved the roster accordingly over the next two seasons. Health at playoff time finally worked out for Denver and the rest is history. Much like Baltimore in 2013, the Broncos may fall off this year to 8-8 territory at best, but this is about winning one Super Bowl, not building a dynasty.
So it makes sense that most of these Super Bowl teams were relevant in previous seasons as well. Twenty-one of the winners and 18 of the losers were in the playoffs in the previous season. Most of the other teams were in that 7-9 or 8-8 range, and some even won nine or ten games but missed the playoffs. That's the NFL sometimes. The Giants missed the playoffs at 10-6 in 2010, but won the NFC East in 2011 with a 9-7 record. Only three teams reached the Super Bowl after losing 10-plus games the previous year: the 1996 Patriots, 1999 Rams, and 2001 Patriots.
Bill Belichick was on the coaching staff for the 1996 and 2001 New England teams, two of the 10 "surprise" Super Bowl teams in this study. The 1996 team, with Bill Parcells at head coach, was actually not that big of a surprise. New England made the playoffs at 10-6 in 1994 behind a young Drew Bledsoe, then added key players such as Ty Law, Curtis Martin, Ted Johnson, Terry Glenn, Lawyer Milloy, and Tedy Bruschi in the 1995 and 1996 drafts. Kicker Adam Vinatieri was an undrafted free agent in 1996. While the team disappointed with a 6-10 record in 1995, this was a young, talented roster with some of the best coaching in the league. Pete Carroll went 27-21 with New England from 1997-99 before Belichick took over the job in 2000, getting off to a slow 5-11 start. Everyone knows what happened in 2001 with Bledsoe and Tom Brady, and the rest is history. But a lot of the core of that team, including Willie McGinest, Troy Brown, and Otis Smith, was from the 1996 Super Bowl team.
Of course, the Patriots turned into a dynasty, but some of the role reversals on the above table are very interesting. The Rams were Cinderella in 1999, then Goliath in 2001 when losing to New England's David. Six years later the Evil Empire Patriots were the huge favorites, but the Little Giants took care of them, then did it again four years later. You almost want to thank Bill Belichick, the Patriots, and those resilient Giants for playing so many close Super Bowls since 1990.
The other person to thank is Kurt Warner. Out of the 54 teams on that table, two should really qualify as batshit crazy for being there: the 1999 Rams and 2008 Cardinals. This is a huge part of Warner's Hall of Fame argument. The Rams had nine consecutive losing seasons from 1990 to 1998. After Trent Green was lost in the preseason, an unknown Warner stepped into the starting role and led one of the greatest offensive attacks in NFL history over the next three seasons, playing at his very best in 1999. After some injuries derailed him and teams tried to replace him with younger quarterbacks, Warner took the starting job back from Matt Leinart in Arizona during the 2007 season. In 2008, he did the unthinkable and led the Cardinals to the Super Bowl, taking a last-minute lead before Pittsburgh's Santonio Holmes made an incredible touchdown catch. Arizona had not had a winning season from 1999 to 2007, but Warner led all three of his teams to the Super Bowl in the seasons where he started all 16 games. The 2008 Cardinals (21st) are the only team to rank worse than 16th in DVOA to reach the Super Bowl, but that just adds to Warner's incredible legacy.
While Warner and Larry Fitzgerald almost brought the Cardinals a ring, we cannot forget the 2003 Panthers, with Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith put on similar heroics. At 16th in DVOA, the 2003 Panthers are the second-lowest ranked team in DVOA to reach the Super Bowl, and they too lost a heart-breaking Super Bowl. John Fox was hired in 2002 to turn around a 1-15 mess, and after a 7-9 finish, he benched Rodney Peete in the 2003 opener for Delhomme, who promptly led a comeback win. It was the first of eight game-winning drives for Delhomme that season, which is still tied for the NFL record.
When predicting teams for Super Bowl LI, it is best to focus on recent success and stable coach/quarterback situations. That means New England, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Kansas City in the AFC, and Seattle, Arizona, Carolina, and Green Bay in the NFC. Can the other 24 teams crash the party? Sure, but that would be betting on things like Ben McAdoo fixing a defense better than Tom Coughlin could, Chuck Pagano getting a clue, or that Dak Prescott and Trevor Siemian are the next Warner and Brady. Stick with known quantities.
Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, but three times is a pattern. Nearly three-quarters of these Super Bowl teams were relevant for three-plus seasons. While some teams may be able to catch lightning in a bottle, getting to the Super Bowl is usually just a great achievement for a team that has already done good things in past seasons.
Breaking Points and the Value of DVOA
Now comes the part where I aggravate several fan bases (and depress several more) by pointing out just how lucky they are to have these rings. But this was really one of the most interesting findings from the data, because it shows the benefits of using DVOA as a predictive tool.
Among the 27 Super Bowl winners, we noted that 21 had a top-three dominant unit. The six winners without a dominant unit -- the 1990 Giants, 2001 Patriots, 2007 Giants, 2011 Giants, 2012 Ravens, and 2014 Patriots -- are quite arguably the six most fortunate champions since 1989, winning by razor-thin margins in the postseason. I introduced the concept of "breaking points" in solving the Peyton Manning playoff puzzle earlier this year. A breaking point in a team context would be that one play late in the game where, had things gone the other way, the outcome would almost certainly reverse as well.
These six teams were pushed hard to the brink of elimination. Consider these facts:
- Fifteen of the 27 champions needed a fourth-quarter comeback in the playoffs. Only the 1990 Giants, 2007 Giants, 2011 Giants, and 2014 Patriots needed two of them.
- Seven champions trailed in the final two minutes of a playoff game: the 2006 Colts, the 2008 Steelers, and five members of our group of six, the 2014 Patriots excluded. And those 2006 Colts were already at the 11-yard line in a 34-31 game after the two-minute warning.
- Eight champions trailed by at least four points in the fourth quarter of a playoff game: this group of six, the 2006 Colts (down 28-21 to New England, tied game with 13:24 left), and the 2013 Seahawks (who took the lead for good against San Francisco with 13:44 left).
- Only two champions trailed by at least four points in the final minute: the 2007 Giants (who took the lead with 35 seconds left) and 2012 Ravens (who tied the game against Denver with 31 seconds left).
- The 2001 Patriots and 2014 Patriots are the only champions to trail by two scores in the fourth quarter of a playoff game. New England trailed Oakland 13-3 in 2001 and trailed Seattle 24-14 in Super Bowl XLIX.
