Patriots Draft Preview: Guards (Jerry Thornton)

cadmonkey

I have nothing useful to say....
Joined
Jun 16, 2004
Messages
19,260
Reaction score
611
Points
113
Location
Swampscott, Ma
Patriots Draft Preview: Guards

http://boston.barstoolsports.com/random-thoughts/patriots-draft-preview-guards/

PatriotsOffensiveLine.jpg


Patriots current roster/ needs: The pundits, gurus and draftniks can roll out all their usual talk about how the Pats #1 need is an edge rusher because “you’ve got to pressure the quarterback” or how they’ll take a receiver who can “stretch the field and give Tom Brady a weapon” like they do every year. But I’ll state right here and now that they’re top priority is a starting offensive guard. Brady has weapons. What he needs- what the team needs- is a guy who’ll play 900 snaps a year and keep Brady from being taken apart like Mr. Potato Head.


And unlike the needs at O-tackle, which depend on whether Matt Light comes back, they need a starting guard whether or not Logan Mankins signs his Franchise tender. Stephen Neal is retired. I thought Dan Connelly was solid during Mankins holdout, even before he went all Devin Hester on our asses. But to me there’s only one spot clearly open in the starting 22, and it’s at right guard. As with tackle, they’ll look less for size than for a smart, tough, agile guy who knows his reads and can bounce outside to lead block for the short pass/ screen game.


Positional overview: It’s not a great year for interior linemen. Most mocks have 1 and at most 2 going in the 1st round and no more than 5 in the Top 100. And some of those are centers projected to move to guard. The prospects:


“Guys your age don’t start playing ball. They retire…” Danny Watkins, Baylor. 6-3, 310, 5.17

Watkins.jpg


When it comes to the actual blocking of actual defensive players, Watkins is the class of the draft. He’s got the atheticism the Pats look for. He finishes his blocks. Plays to the whistle (and after). He’s got a mean streak that compares to Mankins. Believe it or not he’s a former British Columbia firefighter. The only flaw in his game is that next season he’ll turn 27. But he’s the one most ready to step in and contribute as a starter in an NFL offense right now and will be there for probably the Pats first 2 picks, 17 and 28.



Two guys from a Patriots feeder school:

Mike Pouncey, Florida. 6-5, 303, 5.12

Pouncey was the center for the Gators who could slide around to any of the three inside spots. He’s generally considered someone who’ll go in the late 1st to mid-2nd. His brother is the very good Steelers 1st round center pick Maurkice, and there’s a school of thought that Mike is far less talented and cashing in on his brother’s name. The Jamie Lynn to Maurkice’s Britney.

Maurice Hurt, Florida. 6-3, 320, 5.42

Hurt was a right tackle in Gainesville. He’s big and top heavy but not considered agile enough to play outside in the pros. And like Pouncey or Gators’ OT Marcus Gilbert, you’re taking your chances any time you draft an O-lineman who played in a spread offense.

Small school guy scouts love: Will Rackley, Lehigh. 6-3, 307, 5.39

rackley.jpg


As you’d imagine with a highly rated prospect out of the Patriot League, Rackley stands out as you watch his tape. Line scouts say his technique is textbook, he uses his hands well and plays with balance. The fact that he did if for the Mountain Hawks will scare teams away, but then again, the Saints Jahri Evans went to frigging Bloomsburg and he’s the highest paid OG in league history.


Big school guys scouts are not sold on:

Stephen Schilling, Michigan. 6-4, 308, 5.18

Clint Boling, Georgia. 6-5, 305, 5.28

Justin Borin, Ohio St. 6-3, 315, 5.35

I know all three of these guys are God’s children and special and unique in their own ways. So it pains me to say to this, but they’re virtually indistinquishable to me. Read 10 reports on each of them and you can’t tell which one you’re reading about. Strong, lacks agility, inconsistent, blah, blah, blah. These guys are the mean and the median of the very average 2011 OG draft class,. All are expected to go in the 4th or 5th and might develop into capable pros, but should familiarize themselves with the new kickoff return rules.

The Pats have met with: Pouncey. Also Mike Person, Montana St. 6-5, 299, 5.07. Person is considered a late rounder, 5-7.

Ideal Patriot: Watkins

Ideal Patriot if Watkins is off the board and they decide to hold off and make a 3rd round “value” pick: Andrew Jackson, Fresno St. 6-6, 303, 5.27

andrew-jackson-picture.jpg


Like Mankins, Jackson is a guy coached by Belichick apprentice Pat Hill. He’s considered the best pass blocker in this group. He’s got natural quickness and all the scoutspeak cliches about pad levels, hard punches and mirroring his opponents you could ask for. Off the field he’s considered a leader and was a 1stTeam Academic All American. He was healthy all through school until he battled an ankle injury his senior year, so his stock might drop a little. Which is a plus because they might be able to grab him with #74 or even #92.

<iframe title="YouTube video player" width="640" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/TdDF5U6qaWA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Just to be clear, the draft board, depth of the field and (wait for it…) “value” will dictate when they grab a guard, but getting a Week 1 starter is Priority 1.

@jerrythornton1
 
A good read, the point you see being made covertly is the strength of the guard class isn't at guard:

Tackles to guard I like (if not where draftnikkers have them projected): Watkins, Carpenter, Ijalana, Rackley, Boling, Kilgore, Person, Niland, Stingily, Culbreath, Bradfield, Thran.

Centers to guard I like: Barnes, Fusco, Kirkpatrick, Kelce, Linnenkohl, Williams, Kowalski, Nagy.

The problem with drafting offensive linemen in this draft class, NE will almost certainly be forced to overdraft to get players they think will fit. Not overdraft in the sense that they aren't getting good football players, but overdraft in the sense that athleticism or experience isn't to the standard NE has used in past drafts for players like Mankins and Light. For example: Vollmer is a case of a player who was overdrafted for his experience. His athleticism was terrific, but he ony had 25 starts compared to Light's 37 and Mankins' 36.

Watkins and Carpenter are my two top rated OG prospects for NE. Like Mankins they are both LTs. Unlike Mankins and Light and Vollmer, they got their starts at the junior college level before spending two seasons in the Big-12 and SEC respectively. This automatically creates an experience gap even though they started for four years. Based on Combine and Pro-Day numbers, both are more limited athletically than Mankins or Light, yet they are projected to be late first/top of the second picks, the same area of the draft Mankins and Light were drafted. This is what I mean by overdrafting, in this case they don't have the same athleticism Vollmer had when NE "overdrafted" him in terms of his experience. These two kids are good, very good, but if NE drafts them where they are projected to fall in the draft, they will be taking a slightly higher risk in terms of athleticism (as favored by Coach Scar) and experience.

The smaller school kids projected to Day Three/UDFA are the prospects in this draft class who have the kind of athleticism Scar seems to favor from early round picks. This is a class where junior college transfers and 1-AA kids seem on paper to be the best options, so it is very uncertain in that regard. I expect NE to gather extra picks for later in Day Three just to bring in a couple extra LT to OG projects with small school resumes to see what they can do against NFL competition, just to keep the athleticism and leg drive Scar likes on the line.
 
Back
Top