The Hot Zone

Share this page

Dwight Schrute

Dwight Schrute

Deplorable #63174288
Joined
Nov 15, 2007
Messages
41,099
Reaction score
4,458
Points
113
Age
56
Location
America?s Hometown
The Hot Zone on National Geographic. Anyone see it? High recommend.

I read the book almost 20 years ago. This was a fantastic rendition. Julianne Marguiles. The FBI guy from The Americans. Very well done. All about the touch down of Ebola on American soil and how close we came. Terrifying.

A secondary occurrence happened with aid workers who returned stateside with the virus.

And now?

There’s another outbreak currently. And I’m getting a new clip on YouTube daily. The latest is scary. If this goes airborne people....

It’s worth exploring a bit.

Here’s today’s link: https://youtu.be/HxzpkZ6-plc

Last week one city in the US ran emergency preparedness drills: St Louis.
That same day a $4mil private jet left the city, eluded radar on route to FL, 2 F-14 Tomcats were scrambled (not normal), and the plane “went down” 300 miles off shore of Miami, over international waters. I just searched YouTube for the article but couldn’t find it. Weird. Here it is on NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/24/us/plane-crash-fort-lauderdale.html

Something seems strange.
 
I wouldn't be too worried. Here's the actual articles.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...nse-must-be-elevated-to-maximum-level-un-told

https://www.statnews.com/2019/04/12...hows-very-impressive-performance-in-outbreak/

Ebola is not an airborne virus (thankfully), and there is a vaccine available which is tremendously effective. The region with the outbreak contains 1.2 million people. 90,000 were vaccinated due to their high risk of exposure. This means known contacts of infected people, or contacts of contacts (gotta get ahead of it after all). Of those 90,000 infected, 15 developed Ebola after 10 days, and none died. 56 developed Ebola within 10 days, but only 9 died, or roughly 17%. Prior to the vaccine, there had been 750 deaths of 1130 cases, a lethality of around 70%.

In the last month, there's been 500 new deaths or so sure, but that's because it's a war torn region, the people trying to help are actively under attack, and they're not getting accurate contact information.

In the USA, such an outbreak would be readily crushed. It would already be crushed there were it not for idiotic militant groups. As is, the risk of spreading to neighboring countries is high, and it warrants being taken seriously (and it is), but I promise you unless you're taking a trip to Africa soon it won't be Ebola that kills you.
 
Legionnaires Disease in Columbus, Ohio.

Water supply contaminated?

https://www.dispatch.com/news/20190...-death-after-outbreak-of-legionnaires-disease

A patient died Sunday after an outbreak of Legionnaires’ disease at the new Mount Carmel Grove City hospital.

“My entire team and I are deeply saddened by the death announced tonight by Mount Carmel Grove City, and our thoughts and prayers go out to the family,” Ohio Department of Health Director Amy Acton said in a news release.

“We share concern for all impacted by this outbreak. The Ohio Department of Health continues to work closely with Franklin County Public Health and the Mount Carmel (Health) System as we work to ensure patient safety.”

Seven patients have been diagnosed with the disease. The patient in the first case stayed at the new $361 million hospital from April 29 through May 7, and five other patients who contracted the disease stayed sometime between May 8 and May 20. The seventh case was identified late Friday.

The hospital has not identified the patient who died.

“Out of respect for the family’s privacy and in keeping with patient privacy laws, we are not discussing the specifics and complexities of patient information,” said Dr. Richard Streck, chief clinical operations officer for the Mount Carmel Health System, in a news release. “We can say that it’s too early to determine the final cause of death. For most people, the risk of developing Legionnaires’ disease is low; however, individuals with chronic, underlying medical conditions are at increased risk.”

Streck said the hospital is “working with county and state health officials to identify the source of the bacteria. We’ve taken several steps to protect our patients, staff and visitors, including implementing extensive water restrictions. We are running additional tests on water sources throughout Mount Carmel Grove City, and our entire water supply is undergoing supplemental disinfection. We’re confident that we can safely maintain full services of the hospital.”

Streck advised anyone who has been hospitalized and developed a cough, muscle aches, headaches, a fever or shortness of breath to contact their primary care physician.

Legionnaires’ disease kills about 10% of those diagnosed in the general population, but that rate can rise to 1 in 4 people when the outbreak is at a nursing home or hospital.

Legionella bacteria can be found naturally in water but can become a health concern by spreading into building water systems and places such as shower stalls, faucets and drinking fountains.

Outbreaks most commonly occur in buildings with “complex water systems,” including hotels, hospitals and cruise ships, where bacteria can spread in cooling towers, hot water tanks and plumbing systems, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
 
Giant Octopodes said:
I wouldn't be too worried. Here's the actual articles.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...nse-must-be-elevated-to-maximum-level-un-told

https://www.statnews.com/2019/04/12...hows-very-impressive-performance-in-outbreak/

Ebola is not an airborne virus (thankfully), and there is a vaccine available which is tremendously effective. The region with the outbreak contains 1.2 million people. 90,000 were vaccinated due to their high risk of exposure. This means known contacts of infected people, or contacts of contacts (gotta get ahead of it after all). Of those 90,000 infected, 15 developed Ebola after 10 days, and none died. 56 developed Ebola within 10 days, but only 9 died, or roughly 17%. Prior to the vaccine, there had been 750 deaths of 1130 cases, a lethality of around 70%.

In the last month, there's been 500 new deaths or so sure, but that's because it's a war torn region, the people trying to help are actively under attack, and they're not getting accurate contact information.

In the USA, such an outbreak would be readily crushed. It would already be crushed there were it not for idiotic militant groups. As is, the risk of spreading to neighboring countries is high, and it warrants being taken seriously (and it is), but I promise you unless you're taking a trip to Africa soon it won't be Ebola that kills you.
Click to expand...

You CLEARLY did not watch the linked video. It explains the bogus numbers.

And viruses do not remain stagnant. They are constantly evolving. The fear is when it adapts to airborne, like the flu. The impact would be global instantly. There were workers on the last outbreak that flew back to the states carrying the virus. If that was an airborne strain? Suddenly that enclosed incubator in the sky contaminates 250+ people with its pressurized air system that disperse from the landing terminal and scatter stateside.

Just because it’s not airborne yet doesn’t mean it never will be.
 
Oh, I did. The guy is just demonstrably wrong all over the place. I'll break it down below. But first, re: it going airborne, sure it Could, but it's extremely unlikely.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/...-the-ebola-virus-will-go-airborne/?redirect=1

"But interviews with several infectious diseases experts reveal that whereas such a mutation—or more likely series of mutations—might physically be possible, it’s highly unlikely. In fact, there’s almost no historical precedent for any virus to change its basic mode of transmission so radically."

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...what-science-says-about-how-the-virus-spreads

"But if Ebola does transmit through the airborne route, the process is highly inefficient and contributes only an infinitesimal amount to the virus's total spread.

Take the case of Patrick Sawyer. Back in July, the Liberian-American businessman boarded a plane from Monrovia to Lagos, Nigeria. He was clearly very sick — and very contagious — with Ebola. He even vomited while on the plane.

There were about 200 other passengers on the flight. None of them got infected"

Even if Ebola WERE to switch to airborne propogation, it would be very apparent first in the countries with an active outbreak. Health care professionals who are potentially exposed are carefully screened before returning home, and if there were undue chance of an outbreak, travel to and from the country would be barred until it's sorted out. Sure it's Possible Ebola would mutate, bypass a quarantine, and spread through the US in an out of control fashion. But I mean, 2 people have EVER died of Ebola in the USA. Nearly 100,000 people died of influenza in the last 2 years. I'm just saying, of all the things to worry about, it makes more sense to worry about being struck by lightning than it does Ebola, and that's not worth worrying about either. Don't go golfing in a thunder storm, sure, and don't plan that trip to the Congo anytime soon, but that won't be what kills you. Will edit with breakdown of video.
 
If you watch the show of the OP, the head CDC guy had the same attitude. Pah, won’t happen here. He was FAR more concerned with the resulting effects of securing a circle of containment to quarantine and test the possibly exposed. When it was in fact positive he went poopy pants.

The problem is spread in this country. The infrastructure is so far advanced and capable and independently controlled. Planes, trains, boats, personal craft, autos. By the time these very common initial symptoms are identified the amount of contact can potentially be in the thousands.
 
0:15) should we get vaccinated: No. There is no approved vacceine for Ebola. There is one being used, but it's experimental, meaning we don't know all the risks. We just know it works, and is not as bad as, you know, getting Ebola, so until it's either approved or Ebola is in the US, we shouldn't do anything.

2:00) No, they didn't expose 90,000 people to Ebola. Rather, they gave the vaccine to people Who Were Already Exposed or at risk of exposure. As I said before, folks who were known contacts of infected persons, or health care workers, and so forth. THAT is why those numbers are useable, and not anything to do with his bogus claim that it means the virus is airborne. His assertion that only a third of them were even likely to be exposed is either a deliberate falsehood or he didn't read the article he's quoting.

"The vaccine, which is being developed by Merck, is being used in what is known as a ring vaccination strategy. People who have had close and high-risk contact with known Ebola cases are offered vaccine. The contacts of those contacts are also offered a chance to be vaccinated. The aim is to throw up a wall of protection, cutting off the virus’s ability to spread."

4:20) Sure, the numbers aren't hard and fast numbers. Despite his mocking tone, yeah, it would be unethical to expose people to Ebola and give them a placebo just to get hard numbers for relative infection rates. The point is that it Works, not the specific numbers involved.

4:40) regarding seeing a reduction in cases if the vaccine works:

Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO’s health emergencies program, agreed, saying the recent spike in cases in this outbreak was the result of the outbreak response team’s inability to vaccinate more people at the current hot spots of Katwa and Butembo, because many parts of those cities have been too dangerous for vaccination teams to operate in of late.

“We fell behind,” Ryan said in an interview. “And we’re paying the price for that now with increased transmission.”

"On Tuesday, Mike Ryan, assistant director-general of the World Health Organization’s emergency preparedness and response programme, said progress had been made in fighting Ebola, including a drop in transmission of the disease in health facilities.

But insecurity has continued to undermine the response, he added, repeatedly preventing work to identify and vaccinate people at risk of Ebola. There have been 174 attacks on health facilities so far this year, a threefold increase compared with the period from August to December 2018.

In some areas, health workers are afraid to wear protective equipment because they fear they will be targeted by armed groups, according to the WHO.

The vast majority of new confirmed cases – more than 80% – have not been identified as contacts of people known to have Ebola, according to MSF. “This means that the listing of contacts and surveillance are not effective,” the charity said in a statement"

Put it all together, and you can see the issue: this is basically a war zone and medical facilities are under attack, and on top of that they're not getting accurate info. However, note that 80% of new cases are not known contacts, which means that known contacts (with the ring strategy previously discussed, those getting the vaccine) by and large are not getting infected. Rather, those who are Not vaccinated are getting infected.

They don't have 1.2 million doses to just vaccinate everyone. That doesn't mean the vaccine doesn't work. On the contrary, all evidence shows it does, and even when infection still occurs, it's at dramatically reduced lethality.

5:00) The reasons for the elevated response level is indicated above. At NO POINT in the article did they indicate it was now a global health risk, rather, the challenges are regarding the conditions in that country, and they need more help. A final thing regarding it:

"The profile of the response needs to be raised,” he said, adding that more funding needs to be allocated to humanitarian and community engagement work, and that greater efforts should be made to negotiate safe access for charities.

“The approach does not have to be a normal approach … if it means engaging with leaders of militias, we need to do that,” he said."

5:50) No, this does not mean it's airborne. It means infected persons are not accurately reporting whom they've had contact with. Likely due to, you know, the nature of that contact in a warzone.

6:15) At least he's not pushing ionized silver. It does nothing, has no health benefits, and treats nothing. It just permanently dyes your skin grey.

7:45) It's 1200+. It's an active warzone and the epicenter of an active Ebola outbreak. The death numbers being fuzzy and there being a discrepancy is not proof of some grand conspiracy. Give me a break.

8:20) Ebola is not in the USA. You don't need to bleach your mailbox to fight off the Ebola virus.

9:00) yeah, public pools are petri dishes. Yeah, money is a means of spreading disease. Touching door handles, all of that. This guy has the OCD germophobe playbook on lock. This stuff won't protect you from Ebola, since it's not there, but it may protect you from other diseases. The only trouble is, you Should get sick every now and again. Never being exposed to anything makes for a weak immune system. Eat something off the floor every now and again. Living in a bubble just means you can never safely leave that bubble since you'll be ill equipped to survive.

10:30) Now that's just bigoted.

Anyway, there's my response to the video. Deliberate falsehoods galore, or he didn't read the articles he quoted. Yes, in the Congo it's a serious issue, with a real threat of spreading to neighboring countries. It's not a real threat in California, Massachusetts or Michigan at this time, and we have a known effective vaccine should it become a threat. We're not a war torn country with routine attacks on hospitals and folks lying about who they've met with to cover up involvement with militant groups. We don't face the same challenges they do. Plenty to worry about these days. If it spreads to Europe and the pace of the spreading exceeds the ability to manufacture the vaccine, then maybe start worrying. For now, the Ebola virus isn't, in my opinion, one of the things with worrying about.
 
Dwight Schrute said:
If you watch the show of the OP, the head CDC guy had the same attitude. Pah, won’t happen here. He was FAR more concerned with the resulting effects of securing a circle of containment to quarantine and test the possibly exposed. When it was in fact positive he went poopy pants.

The problem is spread in this country. The infrastructure is so far advanced and capable and independently controlled. Planes, trains, boats, personal craft, autos. By the time these very common initial symptoms are identified the amount of contact can potentially be in the thousands.
Click to expand...

It was in the USA though. They did test the possibly exposed. 2 people died, and that was the end of the "outbreak". Sucks for those two people and those who love them, but I'd take that as a Positive sign that it's treated with due caution and we know how to handle it, rather than a sign of impending doom.

Btw regarding the other video from the OP, I just want to say, read the article I linked earlier regarding how it actually spreads and you'll see why you want to stay 6 feet away. It's not a sign of a virulent, airborne strain, despite the claims of the guy.
 
Those are all great counters.

But if there’s a vaccination for a disease with a 90%+ kill rate shouldn’t we be getting that vs a measles vaccination?
 
Merk is one of the world leaders in opioid production as well, right?

Maybe they could transform one of their Oxy mass production lines into the Ebola vaccination project and garner some good will vs their part in the national travesty they’ve helped create here.
 
Dwight Schrute said:
Those are all great counters.

But if there’s a vaccination for a disease with a 90%+ kill rate shouldn’t we be getting that vs a measles vaccination?
Click to expand...

In terms of "instead of", it doesn't have to be. It can be "as well as". After all, there were no known cases of Ebola in the USA in the past two years, but there were 1,350 measles cases. The one is far less deadly, but also far, far more likely to actually be encountered.

But as far as "should we", eventually maybe. But right now, there are challenges with that:
1) proper safety testing is not done yet. That takes years, but we need to make sure it doesn't cause cancer, or liver failure, or autism, or whatever. The measles vaccine has been endlessly tested to ensure its safe. This one, all we know for sure right now is "it's more safe than going without it and having direct exposure to a highly contagious, highly lethal disease", which is good enough for those in an emergency situation but not for, you know, the general populace.
2) Even the safest of vaccines still have Some risk. It's just that the risk is better than the adverse consequences should you go without the vaccine and get exposed. That's why there's lots of diseases for which vaccines exist but we Don't have them automatically recommended by doctors, but rather should get them before travelling to areas where that is a concern. For example, Typhoid. This means that even when it is widely available, it's not necessarily going to be something everyone should get, vs say something one should get before traveling to Africa.
3) supply. It's still new, and it's not like they're swimming in doses. They can't even immunize all 1.2 million over there, so it's not like they can spare a bunch to immunize 300,000,000 over here at this time. They need all they can get their hands on in the hot zones. Likely will for a while, based on how bad it is over there I wouldn't be surprised to see death counts increase to 4x or even 10x current totals before all is said and done. Maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised, but conditions are about as adverse as you can get.
 
More than once have folks broken quarantine.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.da...-quarantine-medics-race-control-outbreak.html

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/drc-ebola-patients-flee-quarantine-amid-poll-chaos-wrgg2cpwf

https://edmdigest.com/featured/unrest-ebola-outbreak-continues/?amp
("In addition to these attacks, the ability to quarantine Ebola victims is especially difficult due to low institutional trust and a belief in misinformation about Ebola.")

The Reuters story, the top one, which he says is "finally" Reuters, and wouldn't have been covered 2-3 weeks ago? Check the date. It was May 24th, 2018. It happened over a year ago.

As far as geographic spread, there are multiple outbreaks in the DNC. Right now it's looking like it'll get in the capital, just like it did when over 11,000 cases happened a few years ago. As I said before I expect 4-10x the fatalities we currently have from this thing before they have it under wraps.

I just have zero fear of it spiraling out of control in 1st world nations. It touched down in Sweden its looking like, in case you were not aware. Guy coming back from Africa is vomiting blood. I'm predicting fewer than 10 fatalities before they're in the clear. I'm hoping for no more fatalities anywhere it should go without saying, but that's just not realistic in the DNC at this time.
 
patfan64 said:
Legionnaires Disease in Columbus, Ohio.

Water supply contaminated?

https://www.dispatch.com/news/20190...-death-after-outbreak-of-legionnaires-disease

A patient died Sunday after an outbreak of Legionnaires’ disease at the new Mount Carmel Grove City hospital.

“My entire team and I are deeply saddened by the death announced tonight by Mount Carmel Grove City, and our thoughts and prayers go out to the family,” Ohio Department of Health Director Amy Acton said in a news release.

“We share concern for all impacted by this outbreak. The Ohio Department of Health continues to work closely with Franklin County Public Health and the Mount Carmel (Health) System as we work to ensure patient safety.”

Seven patients have been diagnosed with the disease. The patient in the first case stayed at the new $361 million hospital from April 29 through May 7, and five other patients who contracted the disease stayed sometime between May 8 and May 20. The seventh case was identified late Friday.

The hospital has not identified the patient who died.

“Out of respect for the family’s privacy and in keeping with patient privacy laws, we are not discussing the specifics and complexities of patient information,” said Dr. Richard Streck, chief clinical operations officer for the Mount Carmel Health System, in a news release. “We can say that it’s too early to determine the final cause of death. For most people, the risk of developing Legionnaires’ disease is low; however, individuals with chronic, underlying medical conditions are at increased risk.”

Streck said the hospital is “working with county and state health officials to identify the source of the bacteria. We’ve taken several steps to protect our patients, staff and visitors, including implementing extensive water restrictions. We are running additional tests on water sources throughout Mount Carmel Grove City, and our entire water supply is undergoing supplemental disinfection. We’re confident that we can safely maintain full services of the hospital.”

Streck advised anyone who has been hospitalized and developed a cough, muscle aches, headaches, a fever or shortness of breath to contact their primary care physician.

Legionnaires’ disease kills about 10% of those diagnosed in the general population, but that rate can rise to 1 in 4 people when the outbreak is at a nursing home or hospital.

Legionella bacteria can be found naturally in water but can become a health concern by spreading into building water systems and places such as shower stalls, faucets and drinking fountains.

Outbreaks most commonly occur in buildings with “complex water systems,” including hotels, hospitals and cruise ships, where bacteria can spread in cooling towers, hot water tanks and plumbing systems, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Click to expand...

It's Ohio. The entire state is contaminated.
 
Giant Octopodes said:
More than once have folks broken quarantine.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.da...-quarantine-medics-race-control-outbreak.html

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/drc-ebola-patients-flee-quarantine-amid-poll-chaos-wrgg2cpwf

https://edmdigest.com/featured/unrest-ebola-outbreak-continues/?amp
("In addition to these attacks, the ability to quarantine Ebola victims is especially difficult due to low institutional trust and a belief in misinformation about Ebola.")

The Reuters story, the top one, which he says is "finally" Reuters, and wouldn't have been covered 2-3 weeks ago? Check the date. It was May 24th, 2018. It happened over a year ago.

As far as geographic spread, there are multiple outbreaks in the DNC. Right now it's looking like it'll get in the capital, just like it did when over 11,000 cases happened a few years ago. As I said before I expect 4-10x the fatalities we currently have from this thing before they have it under wraps.

I just have zero fear of it spiraling out of control in 1st world nations. It touched down in Sweden its looking like, in case you were not aware. Guy coming back from Africa is vomiting blood. I'm predicting fewer than 10 fatalities before they're in the clear. I'm hoping for no more fatalities anywhere it should go without saying, but that's just not realistic in the DNC at this time.
Click to expand...

The fact it’s happening in a war zone, as you noted, is dramatically impacting reporting and accounting. This is the spread rate:


View attachment 102944

But that is estimate only. There could be much more not reported as a result of war deaths.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top