2013 UNIT REVIEWS: DL Edge Guys

[MaineMan]

DL Edge (interior sub-rushers)

JONES .........(1486) (1857) (2229) (2600) (UFA)
NINK ...........(2267) (2167) ..(UFA)
FRANCIS .......(392) ..(482) ..(572) (RFA)
CUNNINGHAM .(540) ..(575) ..(UFA)
BEQUETTE .....(525) ..(615) ..(705) .(795) (UFA)
SCOTT ........(1150) ..(UFA)
VEGA.................... [R/F-TBD]

JONES (6053/266), before his injury, was looking like the Real Deal Edge-rusher who is also strong against the run. Hopefully, he continues to improve (and stay healthy).

NINK (6031/260) had been a solid, reliable all-around player as an OLB who occasionally played on the line and certainly adapted well and quickly in 2012 to playing on the line full time. As I've said before, he's the steady, "pretty good" guy who can enable the guys around him to be stars. He just earned a $500k "incentive bump" and likely an extension beyond 2013. In any case, he's a helluva contributor for just over $2M per year.

CUNNINGHAM (6033/266) performed very well as the primary rotation DE for Nink and Jones (he was "next" when Jones was injured) before his own PED eff-up. He was getting good interior pressure and his run-D was coming around pretty well. If he shows that he can get back to that level of play without the PEDs, he's certainly worth keeping for his 2013 contract year at the price.

FRANCIS (6020/268) showed more promise every week, it seemed, as a situational rusher both inside and from the edge, though he needs to develop more technique and to improve his edge-setting and general run-D. But, he's also cheap.

SCOTT (6050/256) had an "interesting" journey through a season that didn't quite work out for him as expected. It's been suggested that Scott was originally hired as a potential starter, but became more of a veteran "one-year insurance policy" as Jones (and then Cunningham) emerged during Camp. Then, he's was sorta "next man up" with Cunningham suspended and Jones working back from injury and he played fairly well, getting some decent pressure and doing at least okay against the run (and, apparently, was also a consistently solid ST contributor). But then, Francis blew by him for snap count starting around the Niners' game. So, from potential starter to buried on the depth chart - but apparently through no particular fault of his own. Scott showed up pretty well when he had his opportunities - well enough, IMHO, that one of the several lesser defenses around the league might sign him to be their primary rotational guy (#3) where he'd see a lot more defensive snaps than he seems likely to with the Pats. That kind of situation and an offer of $1.5M-$2.0M would almost certainly take him away from the Pats since it doesn't seem reasonable for them to pay that much for a #5 DE, so I'm guessing that they let him walk (though somewhat reluctantly).

BEQUETTE (6045/274) clearly didn't make many opportunities for himself as the #6DE, but he stayed on the 53-man all season, so I have to assume that the coaches saw some pretty good developmental potential there to continue to devote a roster spot to him. Besides which, he's relatively cheap. He could follow Tarpinian's path, being risked on waivers at the end of 2013 Camp (when he's less likely to get snatched away by another team) and end up on the PS. Or, he could turn out to have a much bigger role on the interior DL in 2013.

VEGA (6035/256) is included here because edge-rusher was his primary role for the Bombers the past two seasons (AFAIK). He's on a Reserve/Futures contract at the moment with 2013 salary TBD (but likely to be in the $400k-$500k range). He could be legitimate competition for Cunningham/Francis/Bequette (66 TT, 12 sacks over two CFL seasons.

[NOTE: The Pats also signed UFA Marcus Benard (6020/256) who DID get some pressures while with Cleveland before his career sorta veered off the rails a bit. However, Benard was primarily a very good special-teamer who mostly subbed-in at OLB in Mangini's 3-4, so I've grouped Benard with the special-teamer LBs rather than here with the DEs.]

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The DL certainly didn't get enough pressure in 2012, especially after the coverage (post-Talib) started giving them more time to get home. The most common response is to blame the edge guys. However, the success of the edge-guys suffers when there's minimal pressure from the interior. After the "loss" of Cunningham, the only interior DL getting any significant pressure was Wilfork, and that's not really his game. Of course, the original plan probably involved Fanene (6030/290) as the primary interior pressure guy next to Wilfork. When that flopped, they tried Forston for a game in mid-September, then replaced him with FA Terrell McClain (6015/297) for a week (and also worked out Antonio Dixon, 6024/324). When none of that panned out, I think they sorta made the best with who they had on the roster. The Pats seem to have already begun to address this issue again for 2013 with the Armstead signing, though that's almost certainly not the end of it. All of which is to say that I think the 2013 Pats roster probably loses the 6th DE in favor of a 5th DT (so, Scott seems likely to go bye-bye for that reason, if no other). So, I don't foresee any major expenditures on yet another DE in either the Draft or FA.
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UNIT CAP HIT for 2013 (with no Trevor Scott) = $5.7M

 

[grog]

These are awesome MM. Thanks for breaking it down for us.

 

[chevss454]

Another good job, MM.

Other than the bigs, the front 7 BB is building makes it tough to put some of these players in either an inside or outside category so this had to be difficult for you thinking it through. For instance, you put Vega as a DE but I'm thinking he's more of a cover/rush OLB with our team. Another is Armstead who has had success at both DE & DT in college and the CFL. Interestingly, his sack/pressure successes have mostly come from playing DT as a penetrating pass rusher in the Mike Wright mold. Even so, Armstead played more DE in the CFL from what I've read. I see many interchangeable pieces along the front 4 especially but also with the front 7 as a whole when you consider Nink and presumably Vega. They can not only play OLB in the 3/4 or 4/3 but can also play DE in the 4/3 with no changes necessary vs no huddles when they're in the game. The truth is, BB's D doesn't lend itself to be categorized as either a 3/4 or 4/3 and some of the players he's assembled reflect the new, yet unnamed, defensive formation's versatility.

To my eyes, BB is building a front 7 with the versatility to play the run & the pass in base and now he has collected some specialists who can focus on 1 or the other with a minor formation change. Iow, BB can send in his base unit but can morph that unit into a nascar hybrid of sorts by changing a couple of personnel positions on the field. I think that's what he had in mind when he drafted Cunningham as an OLB/DE although Cunningham didn't pan out exactly the way BB intended as an OLB. And this year Cunningham lost out at DE to both Nink & Francis. Thankfully, Francis came in and filled the void when Jones went down & Nink played well at DE. Bequette showed in camp that he didn't have the upper body strength to compete well at DE. Bequette is simply too weak to play the interior line, imo. If he doesn't come back into camp a lot stronger this year, he could be an early casualty.

Trevor Scott is another player who didn't live up to expectations imo. In his biggest role of the year, the AFCCG, Scott allowed Rice to get outside way too many times. I see no need to dwell on Scott; I think he will be an early casualty just as you do.

That leaves us with Jones, Nink, Francis, Cunningham & Bequette at DE with Armstead and Vega able to fill in if needed. Nink and Vega can also play OLB cover/rushers.

I think BB actually may like to add another pure DE type for camp but that depends in large part on Cunningham's and Bequette's progress this off season.

 

[MaineMan]

Another good job, MM.

Other than the bigs, the front 7 BB is building makes it tough to put some of these players in either an inside or outside category so this had to be difficult for you thinking it through. For instance, you put Vega as a DE but I'm thinking he's more of a cover/rush OLB with our team. Another is Armstead who has had success at both DE & DT in college and the CFL. Interestingly, his sack/pressure successes have mostly come from playing DT as a penetrating pass rusher in the Mike Wright mold. Even so, Armstead played more DE in the CFL from what I've read. I see many interchangeable pieces along the front 4 especially but also with the front 7 as a whole when you consider Nink and presumably Vega. They can not only play OLB in the 3/4 or 4/3 but can also play DE in the 4/3 with no changes necessary vs no huddles when they're in the game. The truth is, BB's D doesn't lend itself to be categorized as either a 3/4 or 4/3 and some of the players he's assembled reflect the new, yet unnamed, defensive formation's versatility.

To my eyes, BB is building a front 7 with the versatility to play the run & the pass in base and now he has collected some specialists who can focus on 1 or the other with a minor formation change. Iow, BB can send in his base unit but can morph that unit into a nascar hybrid of sorts by changing a couple of personnel positions on the field. I think that's what he had in mind when he drafted Cunningham as an OLB/DE although Cunningham didn't pan out exactly the way BB intended as an OLB. And this year Cunningham lost out at DE to both Nink & Francis. Thankfully, Francis came in and filled the void when Jones went down & Nink played well at DE. Bequette showed in camp that he didn't have the upper body strength to compete well at DE. Bequette is simply too weak to play the interior line, imo. If he doesn't come back into camp a lot stronger this year, he could be an early casualty.

Trevor Scott is another player who didn't live up to expectations imo. In his biggest role of the year, the AFCCG, Scott allowed Rice to get outside way too many times. I see no need to dwell on Scott; I think he will be an early casualty just as you do.

That leaves us with Jones, Nink, Francis, Cunningham & Bequette at DE with Armstead and Vega able to fill in if needed. Nink and Vega can also play OLB cover/rushers.

I think BB actually may like to add another pure DE type for camp but that depends in large part on Cunningham's and Bequette's progress this off season.

Agree 100%. They've often shown their fronts, 30 or 40, with 2-gap sets on one side and 1-gap sets on the other and then switched up before the snap (those "line resets" that caused some controversy). Call it the "Bob-n-Weave" or "Bait-and-Switch" defense. So, yeah, it's hard to define a player's role/position in any classic sense (even Nink rushed from the interior a few times). Really, the above is just my best guess (still a guess) as to where a guy will line up (at least at first) for a majority of his snaps.

BTW, I agree about Scott's edge-setting failures, but I'm not sure that Francis was significantly better. What differentiates the two mostly is that Francis is young and cheap with some upside potential. Scott will be 29 at the end of Camp and is probably near his ceiling.

 

[Alk]

I can't wait to see Jones after and offseason with the team. I believe he weighs in at about 260 right now. I think he could play at 275 without losing much if any of his quickness.