CORNERBACK
DENNARD .......(404) (494) .(584) (674) (UFA)
DOWLING-IR ...(616) (857) (1098) (UFA)
TALIB ..........(2153*) (UFA)
ARRINGTON ..(2150) ..(UFA)
COLE ............(650) ..(UFA)
[* The Talib cap-hit figure is what it WOULD have been if he'd stayed in Tampa and NOT been suspended.]
DENNARD (5100/204) is officially a steal so far. Certainly not perfect, but a very good rookie performance and he can definitely play man-coverage (though I'm not sure how he is with zone assignments) and seems very comfortable at RCB (and not every good CB is). He's also been very good in run-support. So that's THREE major positives. Anyway, he's the first Pats drafted CB who's been able to actually do all that (Dowling aside, for the moment) at least since they began the transition away from primarily zone-read in 2011. If Dennard improves in 2013, he may be seeking a renegotiation for 2014.
DOWLING (6013/198), I believe, was intended to be the Pats first true "man corner", but he's appeared in only 8 games with two starts over two seasons, didn't contribute much when healthy in 2012 and has spent the rest of his time on IR. Since he's already under contract, the Pats probably keep him through OTAs just to see what, if anything, he's got. If he makes it as far as 2013 Camp, that might be a fairly positive sign. If he gets cut, though, I don't see how he could possibly be missed.
TALIB (6006/202), along with Dennard, has finally given the Pats the opportunity of playing a lot more man-coverage behind the pass-rush. His performance, IMO, wasn't consistently good, though, so it's difficult for me to gauge what his asking price might be or what the Pats' offer price might be for 2013 (and beyond). As for possible "reference comps", here are the cap-hit numbers for some current/recent UFA corners (and I'm not sure which of these guys can play man-coverage):
2013 UFAs
- Tracy Porter - $4.0M (2012 one-year deal in DEN)
- Antoine Cason - $1.81M (2012 SDG, final year of rookie deal)
- Mike Jenkins - $1.67M (2012 DAL, final year of rookie deal)
- DRC - $3.12M (2012 PHL, one-year deal)
- Leodis McKelvin - $2.69M (2012 BUF, final year of rookie deal)
- Pacman Jones - 950k (2012 CIN, one-year deal)
- Terence Newman - 825k (2012 CIN, one-year deal)
- Sheldon Brown - $5.47M (2012 CLE, last year of 2010 deal)
- Chris Houston - $4.63M (2012 DET, last year of 2011 deal)
RECENT UFA DEALS
- Brandon Flowers - (KCY, re-negotiated) $3.38M (2011), $8.0M (2012), $9.6M (2013)....
- Brandon Carr - $3.2M (2012 FA to DAL), $16.3M (2013), $9.4M (2014) ....
- Terrell Thomas - (NYG, re-negotiated) $1.2M (2012), $3.0M (2013), $6.05M (2014), $7.0M (2015)
[IIRC, Bodden got 3yrs/$22M from the Pats. He was a near-elite RCB in the zone scheme, though he failed in man-coverge (possibly due to his "secret" injury.]
ARRINGTON (5094/196). I'm still going back-and-forth on this guy. On the one hand, he has been significantly more valuable than a JAG. The Pats have had many JAGs in the secondary, guys like Molden, Lewis Sanders, etc., even Cole. Wilhite is probably the best example for me - a typical mid-round pick who was okay enough as a zone-guy in the nickel to hang around for his rookie contract, but who didn't provide much of anything else, including run-support. Arrington, in contrast, has shown some very valuable skills overall during the past three seasons, specific abilities that may be much harder to replace than most folks appear to believe. He was at least marginally competent, though dedicated and disciplined at RCB for two seasons in both man and zone (with safety help), and not all that many guys can handle the right side at all. He's been an exceptional special teamer (something Wilhite never did at all well) and is pretty consistently solid against the run (takes much better angles than Gregory). Replacing all that with another mid-rounder or FA is not really a slam-dunk (Moore, Cole, Malcolm Williams, Molden, Nathan Jones, Phillip Adams - just to name a recent few). OTOH, Arrington's kinda expensive. And he had a pretty crappy 2012 - IMO because he suddenly, inexplicably started free-lancing instead of being as disciplined in his assignments as he was before, something that is probably fixable. He's not quite that "3rd good corner" that the Pats need, but he's way better than the vast majority of #4 CBs around the league . Keeping him would be far preferable to starting over with another series of true JAGs, hoping that one of them pans out as well as Arrington has. But at what price?
COLE (5091/191) has been a very good special teamer who played more defensive snaps than pretty much any other ST guy in 2012 (and did pretty okay as a nickel/dime guy). He also contributed more than Wilhite ever did, even as a 5th CB. And he's relatively cheap. Though he might not be all that hard to replace, I'd keep him for the "known quantity" factor.
So, at the moment, the only starting-caliber MAN corner that Pats appear to be able to count on for 2013 is Dennard and all the rest of the CBs are question marks. McCourty could shift back to CB and I think he'd be okay in man-coverage going forward, but then the Pats would be missing an excellent deep safety (again), so that would seem self-defeating (I don't think Gregory has shown he can handle it anywhere near as well). Trying to replace Talib with another proven veteran man-coverage guy probably won't be any less expensive than simply re-signing Talib (and the new guy will have to get up to speed on his Pats-specific assignments, play-calls, work into the unit cohesion/communication, etc.). So, in any case, it seems likely to me that the Pats add at least one CB from the draft, very possibly out of their first three picks.
CURRENT UNIT CAP HIT for 2013 = $1.35M
- Re-sign Tailb to something like a $4.5M/$7.5M/$10.5M 3-year deal
- Resign Arrington with a slight bump (say $2.4M).
- Resign Cole with a slight bump (say $725k)
----- and the unit cap hit goes to just over $9M for 2013.
----- adding a 1st-round prospect raises the unit total to around $10.4M
---------------------------------------
SAFETY
- Martin & Nate Ebner are included with special-teamers
- Barrett and Will Allen are off my radar at this point
WILSON .........(767) .(959) (1150) (1333) (UFA)
McCOURTY ...(1735) (1845) (2115) (RFA)
GREGORY ......(1683) (2183) (3183) (UFA)
CHUNG .........(1173) ..(RFA)
McCOURTY (5106/193) is the guy I want to see as the deep coverage safety for a long time to come. He was still finding his way a bit back there for awhile this season, but he's already probably more reliable than Meriweather ever was and McCourty's a much better run-defender/tackler. McCourty, Dennard and (hopefully) Talib could form the base of a very good secondary going forward.
GREGORY (5104/185) was a Jeykll/Hyde performer this season, which is kinda the way he was in San Diego. He had some pretty good games alternating with some awful ones, but, in the end, showed only marginal improvement in many areas even when he was playing well. He wasn't in the right spot often enough for me to trust him at deep safety and his abilities against the run were pretty mediocre. IMHO, he has a lot to improve on in order to justify his 2013 cap hit, much less his place as a "starter".
WILSON (5116/205) showed a lot of promise and a lot of rookie deficiencies (and tentativeness) while starting when both Gregory and Chung were sidelined, but was still not far behind Gregory in coverage, better in run-D, and a whole bunch cheaper. If Wilson can make even a little improvement in both coverage and tackling in the off-season, he quickly could push Gregory down to #3 safety (at which point Gregory would seem very expensive for his role).
CHUNG (5112/207) wasn't able to stay healthy (again), and, when he was healthy, his coverage was still poor and his play was even less disciplined than in 2011. His RFA status (if that's even correct) seems irrelevant since there's no way the Pats are going to want to pay him even "original round tender" (2nd-round) money. Maybe the Pat make him an offer between 50% & 75% of his 2012 cap hit, but even that seems unlikely. I'm not sure I'd even want him as a #4 safety.
Because McCourty's elite range and play-diagnostics sorta lock him in as the deep-zone guy, Gregory or even a well-progressed Wilson would seem to be relegated to the intermediate-middle/in-the-box safety role by default. Unless Wilson makes a huge 2nd-year-leap in his play/route diagnostics, there's really no backup at deep-cover safety behind McCourty. As much as I'd like to see the Pats pick up a Harrison-like 6'2"/220 in-the-box thumper to help stifle RBs in run-D and blow up seam-routes and short-crosses, it may be that adding a more average-size guy with range, smarts and ball skills to develop as a reserve deep-cover guy would be more appropriate. But that perhaps expands the DB draft prospect list to include, perhaps, taller zone corners who don't post 1st-round-worthy 40 times. In any case, it seems almost inevitable to me that an any additional safeties for the 2013 roster come from the draft, because . . .
Among the more highly-rated 2013 free agent safeties, I'm not really seeing any guys who would seem worthy AND affordable AND likely to be allowed to walk by their current team. Ed Reed hit the BAL cap for $9.6M in 2012, turns 35 in September and seems almost certain to retire a Raven in another year or two, even if he's playing at a steep hometown discount at the end. Byrd and Goldson seem likely to get upwards of $6M for 2013. Kenny Phillips has played pretty well when healthy (which hasn't been all that often), but he made $2.96M with the Gints in 2012 and seems likely to get a raise, somewhere. William Moore is pretty limited to an in-the-box role and seems unlikely to be allowed to walk by the Falcons. Ronde Barber is still excellent, but ancient. LaRon Landry seems too undisciplined IMO and also seems likely to want/get a bump from the $2.6M he made with the Jets in 2012 (though probably somewhere besides New York). Leonhard (DEN), Clemons (MIA), Sanford (MIN) and the rest seem, at best, semi-JAGish with no future upside. There's always a possibility that some team will, unknowingly, let go of a young diamond-in-the-rough who hasn't seen much playing time, but . . .
CURRENT UNIT CAP HIT for 2013 = $4.99M (and Gregory accounts for more than 40% of that)
- adding a 1st/2nd-round draftee raises that to between $5.8M and $6.4M.
DENNARD .......(404) (494) .(584) (674) (UFA)
DOWLING-IR ...(616) (857) (1098) (UFA)
TALIB ..........(2153*) (UFA)
ARRINGTON ..(2150) ..(UFA)
COLE ............(650) ..(UFA)
[* The Talib cap-hit figure is what it WOULD have been if he'd stayed in Tampa and NOT been suspended.]
DENNARD (5100/204) is officially a steal so far. Certainly not perfect, but a very good rookie performance and he can definitely play man-coverage (though I'm not sure how he is with zone assignments) and seems very comfortable at RCB (and not every good CB is). He's also been very good in run-support. So that's THREE major positives. Anyway, he's the first Pats drafted CB who's been able to actually do all that (Dowling aside, for the moment) at least since they began the transition away from primarily zone-read in 2011. If Dennard improves in 2013, he may be seeking a renegotiation for 2014.
DOWLING (6013/198), I believe, was intended to be the Pats first true "man corner", but he's appeared in only 8 games with two starts over two seasons, didn't contribute much when healthy in 2012 and has spent the rest of his time on IR. Since he's already under contract, the Pats probably keep him through OTAs just to see what, if anything, he's got. If he makes it as far as 2013 Camp, that might be a fairly positive sign. If he gets cut, though, I don't see how he could possibly be missed.
TALIB (6006/202), along with Dennard, has finally given the Pats the opportunity of playing a lot more man-coverage behind the pass-rush. His performance, IMO, wasn't consistently good, though, so it's difficult for me to gauge what his asking price might be or what the Pats' offer price might be for 2013 (and beyond). As for possible "reference comps", here are the cap-hit numbers for some current/recent UFA corners (and I'm not sure which of these guys can play man-coverage):
2013 UFAs
- Tracy Porter - $4.0M (2012 one-year deal in DEN)
- Antoine Cason - $1.81M (2012 SDG, final year of rookie deal)
- Mike Jenkins - $1.67M (2012 DAL, final year of rookie deal)
- DRC - $3.12M (2012 PHL, one-year deal)
- Leodis McKelvin - $2.69M (2012 BUF, final year of rookie deal)
- Pacman Jones - 950k (2012 CIN, one-year deal)
- Terence Newman - 825k (2012 CIN, one-year deal)
- Sheldon Brown - $5.47M (2012 CLE, last year of 2010 deal)
- Chris Houston - $4.63M (2012 DET, last year of 2011 deal)
RECENT UFA DEALS
- Brandon Flowers - (KCY, re-negotiated) $3.38M (2011), $8.0M (2012), $9.6M (2013)....
- Brandon Carr - $3.2M (2012 FA to DAL), $16.3M (2013), $9.4M (2014) ....
- Terrell Thomas - (NYG, re-negotiated) $1.2M (2012), $3.0M (2013), $6.05M (2014), $7.0M (2015)
[IIRC, Bodden got 3yrs/$22M from the Pats. He was a near-elite RCB in the zone scheme, though he failed in man-coverge (possibly due to his "secret" injury.]
ARRINGTON (5094/196). I'm still going back-and-forth on this guy. On the one hand, he has been significantly more valuable than a JAG. The Pats have had many JAGs in the secondary, guys like Molden, Lewis Sanders, etc., even Cole. Wilhite is probably the best example for me - a typical mid-round pick who was okay enough as a zone-guy in the nickel to hang around for his rookie contract, but who didn't provide much of anything else, including run-support. Arrington, in contrast, has shown some very valuable skills overall during the past three seasons, specific abilities that may be much harder to replace than most folks appear to believe. He was at least marginally competent, though dedicated and disciplined at RCB for two seasons in both man and zone (with safety help), and not all that many guys can handle the right side at all. He's been an exceptional special teamer (something Wilhite never did at all well) and is pretty consistently solid against the run (takes much better angles than Gregory). Replacing all that with another mid-rounder or FA is not really a slam-dunk (Moore, Cole, Malcolm Williams, Molden, Nathan Jones, Phillip Adams - just to name a recent few). OTOH, Arrington's kinda expensive. And he had a pretty crappy 2012 - IMO because he suddenly, inexplicably started free-lancing instead of being as disciplined in his assignments as he was before, something that is probably fixable. He's not quite that "3rd good corner" that the Pats need, but he's way better than the vast majority of #4 CBs around the league . Keeping him would be far preferable to starting over with another series of true JAGs, hoping that one of them pans out as well as Arrington has. But at what price?
COLE (5091/191) has been a very good special teamer who played more defensive snaps than pretty much any other ST guy in 2012 (and did pretty okay as a nickel/dime guy). He also contributed more than Wilhite ever did, even as a 5th CB. And he's relatively cheap. Though he might not be all that hard to replace, I'd keep him for the "known quantity" factor.
So, at the moment, the only starting-caliber MAN corner that Pats appear to be able to count on for 2013 is Dennard and all the rest of the CBs are question marks. McCourty could shift back to CB and I think he'd be okay in man-coverage going forward, but then the Pats would be missing an excellent deep safety (again), so that would seem self-defeating (I don't think Gregory has shown he can handle it anywhere near as well). Trying to replace Talib with another proven veteran man-coverage guy probably won't be any less expensive than simply re-signing Talib (and the new guy will have to get up to speed on his Pats-specific assignments, play-calls, work into the unit cohesion/communication, etc.). So, in any case, it seems likely to me that the Pats add at least one CB from the draft, very possibly out of their first three picks.
CURRENT UNIT CAP HIT for 2013 = $1.35M
- Re-sign Tailb to something like a $4.5M/$7.5M/$10.5M 3-year deal
- Resign Arrington with a slight bump (say $2.4M).
- Resign Cole with a slight bump (say $725k)
----- and the unit cap hit goes to just over $9M for 2013.
----- adding a 1st-round prospect raises the unit total to around $10.4M
---------------------------------------
SAFETY
- Martin & Nate Ebner are included with special-teamers
- Barrett and Will Allen are off my radar at this point
WILSON .........(767) .(959) (1150) (1333) (UFA)
McCOURTY ...(1735) (1845) (2115) (RFA)
GREGORY ......(1683) (2183) (3183) (UFA)
CHUNG .........(1173) ..(RFA)
McCOURTY (5106/193) is the guy I want to see as the deep coverage safety for a long time to come. He was still finding his way a bit back there for awhile this season, but he's already probably more reliable than Meriweather ever was and McCourty's a much better run-defender/tackler. McCourty, Dennard and (hopefully) Talib could form the base of a very good secondary going forward.
GREGORY (5104/185) was a Jeykll/Hyde performer this season, which is kinda the way he was in San Diego. He had some pretty good games alternating with some awful ones, but, in the end, showed only marginal improvement in many areas even when he was playing well. He wasn't in the right spot often enough for me to trust him at deep safety and his abilities against the run were pretty mediocre. IMHO, he has a lot to improve on in order to justify his 2013 cap hit, much less his place as a "starter".
WILSON (5116/205) showed a lot of promise and a lot of rookie deficiencies (and tentativeness) while starting when both Gregory and Chung were sidelined, but was still not far behind Gregory in coverage, better in run-D, and a whole bunch cheaper. If Wilson can make even a little improvement in both coverage and tackling in the off-season, he quickly could push Gregory down to #3 safety (at which point Gregory would seem very expensive for his role).
CHUNG (5112/207) wasn't able to stay healthy (again), and, when he was healthy, his coverage was still poor and his play was even less disciplined than in 2011. His RFA status (if that's even correct) seems irrelevant since there's no way the Pats are going to want to pay him even "original round tender" (2nd-round) money. Maybe the Pat make him an offer between 50% & 75% of his 2012 cap hit, but even that seems unlikely. I'm not sure I'd even want him as a #4 safety.
Because McCourty's elite range and play-diagnostics sorta lock him in as the deep-zone guy, Gregory or even a well-progressed Wilson would seem to be relegated to the intermediate-middle/in-the-box safety role by default. Unless Wilson makes a huge 2nd-year-leap in his play/route diagnostics, there's really no backup at deep-cover safety behind McCourty. As much as I'd like to see the Pats pick up a Harrison-like 6'2"/220 in-the-box thumper to help stifle RBs in run-D and blow up seam-routes and short-crosses, it may be that adding a more average-size guy with range, smarts and ball skills to develop as a reserve deep-cover guy would be more appropriate. But that perhaps expands the DB draft prospect list to include, perhaps, taller zone corners who don't post 1st-round-worthy 40 times. In any case, it seems almost inevitable to me that an any additional safeties for the 2013 roster come from the draft, because . . .
Among the more highly-rated 2013 free agent safeties, I'm not really seeing any guys who would seem worthy AND affordable AND likely to be allowed to walk by their current team. Ed Reed hit the BAL cap for $9.6M in 2012, turns 35 in September and seems almost certain to retire a Raven in another year or two, even if he's playing at a steep hometown discount at the end. Byrd and Goldson seem likely to get upwards of $6M for 2013. Kenny Phillips has played pretty well when healthy (which hasn't been all that often), but he made $2.96M with the Gints in 2012 and seems likely to get a raise, somewhere. William Moore is pretty limited to an in-the-box role and seems unlikely to be allowed to walk by the Falcons. Ronde Barber is still excellent, but ancient. LaRon Landry seems too undisciplined IMO and also seems likely to want/get a bump from the $2.6M he made with the Jets in 2012 (though probably somewhere besides New York). Leonhard (DEN), Clemons (MIA), Sanford (MIN) and the rest seem, at best, semi-JAGish with no future upside. There's always a possibility that some team will, unknowingly, let go of a young diamond-in-the-rough who hasn't seen much playing time, but . . .
CURRENT UNIT CAP HIT for 2013 = $4.99M (and Gregory accounts for more than 40% of that)
- adding a 1st/2nd-round draftee raises that to between $5.8M and $6.4M.
