DEFENSE
Players' Cap numbers for [2014][2015][2016] in $Millions
(*) = player was on IR in 2013
Defensive End
Ninkovich -- [2.250][3.450][2.850]
Chandler --- [2.229][2.600][UFA]
Bequette --- [0.710][0.800][UFA] -- saves [0.440] if cut
Buchanan -- [0.508][0.598][0.688]
Carter ------ UFA
- Bequette is pretty useless, even on ST (where Buchanan has shined)
- Carter will go back to the speed-dial roster
- That leaves only three DEs. Sure, Collins and HT may be able to fill in at times, but it would seriously weaken the LB corps to have to move them up front full time. Seems very likely that a (relatively cheap) UFA and a draft pick will be added (haven't done enough homework to suggest names for either, though).
DL Interior
*Wilfork -- [11.600][UFA] --------- saves [8.000] if cut/retires, etc. Restructure might save [4.000]
Sopoaga --- [3.750][3.500][UFA] -- saves [2.750] if cut
Kelly ------- [3.000][UFA] --------- saves [2.500] if cut; a restructure/extension might net $1.0M for 2014
Siliga ------ [0.570][UFA]
C. Jones --- [0.495][0.585][0.675]
Vellano ---- [0.495][0.585][UFA]
*Armstead - [0.495][0.585][UFA]
*Grissom --- [0.495][0.585][UFA]
Forston, R/F
- Cap-wise, it would be a blessing if Wilfork can't come back. Roster-wise, Vince retiring would open up a spot for a prime UFA -OR- a high draft pick (again, no names yet).
- Sopoaga is an easy cut.
- I think Kelly is probably worth a lot more than what he's being paid (and that he has a much easier comeback road than Wilfork), and that a primary rotation of Kelly/Siliga/Jones might be okay for 2014.
- Vellano was a great reserve for 2013, but he may be competing with Armstead, Grissom and Forston for a 5th DT spot.
- Siliga may need to be extended this season.
Linebackers
*Mayo ------- [7.600][9.600][9.850]
Hightower ---- [2.107][2.458][UFA]
Collins ------- [0.855][1.026][1.197]
Beauharnais -- [0.507][0.597][0.687]
Ja'G. Davis --- [0.495][0.585][RFA]
Spikes ------- [UFA]
Fletcher ------ [UFA]
Taylor Reed, R/F
- Mayo could see a restructure/extension in 2015.
- Mayo/HT/Collins could be a great starting trio, but there's not much depth behind them.
- Spikes, in spite of his coverage issues, still graded out very well (PFF) and his fire is something the defense sorely needs more of. The Pats may make an offer but likely get outbid.
- It's disturbing that Beauharnais couldn't perform well enough on ST to be active. He could be the next Bequette.
- Fletcher probably gets another 1-year/short money deal (maybe up to $1.0M)
- I'm guessing another Day-Two draft pick at LB (+ another UDFA) is more likely than a substantial free agent.
Cornerback
Arrington -- [3.625][4.625][5.125]
Ryan ------ [0.656][0.746][0.826]
Dennard --- [0.584][0.674][UFA]
Green ----- [0.495][UFA]
Talib ------ [UFA]
- Arrington certainly is expensive, but it costs $1.25M more to cut him than to keep him.
- I haven't yet done enough homework to develop a reasonable basis for suggesting how the market may value Talib or, really, what the various dependencies are to determine what the Pats may be able to afford. It's pretty clear, though, that, if he goes, his replacement will need to be a fairly substantial FA and/or a very good draft pick.
- Green was a pretty good special teamer, and it's perhaps encouraging that the Pats felt comfortable using him to replace Cole for CB depth.
Safety
Gregory --- [3.183][UFA] --------- saves [2.350] to cut him
McCourty -- [2.115][UFA]
*A. Wilson - [1.833][1.833][UFA] -- saves [1.166] to cut him
T. Wilson -- [1.150][1.333][UFA] -- saves [0.396] to cut him
Harmon ---- [0.634][0.724][0.814]
K. Davis --- [0.495][0.585][RFA]
- McCourty needs to be paid (no estimate from me yet).
- Not seeing any pre-Free Agency cuts here, except maybe if Adrian Wilson is clearly not coming back from his Achilles before Camp.
- Gregory is far from ideal, but still cheaper than Sanders was in his last season (IIRC). If there's a UFA safety on the list who's clearly better than Gregory and will work for $5.0M or less for 2014, I haven't identified him yet.
- Harmon developed nicely in his rookie season, but I'm not sure he's ready to replace Gregory yet. A restructure/extension might save $1.0M for 2014.
- Tavon Wilson is an unknown wrt positional play, but his ST contributions probably enable him to stick sround through Camp.
- Kanorris Davis seems to be a very good ST guy as well, but I have no idea if he can play the position well enough to be even an adequate backup (or a better backup than Tavon).
- Safety seems really thin to me again with only Gregory, McCourty and Harmon seeming to be reliable.
"Easy/early" cuts:
Bequette -- 0.440
Sopoaga --- 2.750
A. Wilson - 1.166 (possibly)
TOTAL ----- 4.356
Possible restructures:
Wilfork --- 4.000
Kelly ----- 1.000
Gregory --- 1.000
TOTAL ---- 6.000
DT surplus - 1.485 (three of Vellano, Armstead, Grissom, Forston - but probably not all of them till end of Camp)
So, somewhere between $5.0M and $10.0M might be gained against the cap fairly quickly, but then offset by new contracts for McCourty, Siliga, Talib (or replacement) and Fletcher (or replacement). Reducing the surplus DT population would be an end-of-Camp gain and unlikely to affect initial Free Agency moves.
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Offense next post.
Players' Cap numbers for [2014][2015][2016] in $Millions
(*) = player was on IR in 2013
Defensive End
Ninkovich -- [2.250][3.450][2.850]
Chandler --- [2.229][2.600][UFA]
Bequette --- [0.710][0.800][UFA] -- saves [0.440] if cut
Buchanan -- [0.508][0.598][0.688]
Carter ------ UFA
- Bequette is pretty useless, even on ST (where Buchanan has shined)
- Carter will go back to the speed-dial roster
- That leaves only three DEs. Sure, Collins and HT may be able to fill in at times, but it would seriously weaken the LB corps to have to move them up front full time. Seems very likely that a (relatively cheap) UFA and a draft pick will be added (haven't done enough homework to suggest names for either, though).
DL Interior
*Wilfork -- [11.600][UFA] --------- saves [8.000] if cut/retires, etc. Restructure might save [4.000]
Sopoaga --- [3.750][3.500][UFA] -- saves [2.750] if cut
Kelly ------- [3.000][UFA] --------- saves [2.500] if cut; a restructure/extension might net $1.0M for 2014
Siliga ------ [0.570][UFA]
C. Jones --- [0.495][0.585][0.675]
Vellano ---- [0.495][0.585][UFA]
*Armstead - [0.495][0.585][UFA]
*Grissom --- [0.495][0.585][UFA]
Forston, R/F
- Cap-wise, it would be a blessing if Wilfork can't come back. Roster-wise, Vince retiring would open up a spot for a prime UFA -OR- a high draft pick (again, no names yet).
- Sopoaga is an easy cut.
- I think Kelly is probably worth a lot more than what he's being paid (and that he has a much easier comeback road than Wilfork), and that a primary rotation of Kelly/Siliga/Jones might be okay for 2014.
- Vellano was a great reserve for 2013, but he may be competing with Armstead, Grissom and Forston for a 5th DT spot.
- Siliga may need to be extended this season.
Linebackers
*Mayo ------- [7.600][9.600][9.850]
Hightower ---- [2.107][2.458][UFA]
Collins ------- [0.855][1.026][1.197]
Beauharnais -- [0.507][0.597][0.687]
Ja'G. Davis --- [0.495][0.585][RFA]
Spikes ------- [UFA]
Fletcher ------ [UFA]
Taylor Reed, R/F
- Mayo could see a restructure/extension in 2015.
- Mayo/HT/Collins could be a great starting trio, but there's not much depth behind them.
- Spikes, in spite of his coverage issues, still graded out very well (PFF) and his fire is something the defense sorely needs more of. The Pats may make an offer but likely get outbid.
- It's disturbing that Beauharnais couldn't perform well enough on ST to be active. He could be the next Bequette.
- Fletcher probably gets another 1-year/short money deal (maybe up to $1.0M)
- I'm guessing another Day-Two draft pick at LB (+ another UDFA) is more likely than a substantial free agent.
Cornerback
Arrington -- [3.625][4.625][5.125]
Ryan ------ [0.656][0.746][0.826]
Dennard --- [0.584][0.674][UFA]
Green ----- [0.495][UFA]
Talib ------ [UFA]
- Arrington certainly is expensive, but it costs $1.25M more to cut him than to keep him.
- I haven't yet done enough homework to develop a reasonable basis for suggesting how the market may value Talib or, really, what the various dependencies are to determine what the Pats may be able to afford. It's pretty clear, though, that, if he goes, his replacement will need to be a fairly substantial FA and/or a very good draft pick.
- Green was a pretty good special teamer, and it's perhaps encouraging that the Pats felt comfortable using him to replace Cole for CB depth.
Safety
Gregory --- [3.183][UFA] --------- saves [2.350] to cut him
McCourty -- [2.115][UFA]
*A. Wilson - [1.833][1.833][UFA] -- saves [1.166] to cut him
T. Wilson -- [1.150][1.333][UFA] -- saves [0.396] to cut him
Harmon ---- [0.634][0.724][0.814]
K. Davis --- [0.495][0.585][RFA]
- McCourty needs to be paid (no estimate from me yet).
- Not seeing any pre-Free Agency cuts here, except maybe if Adrian Wilson is clearly not coming back from his Achilles before Camp.
- Gregory is far from ideal, but still cheaper than Sanders was in his last season (IIRC). If there's a UFA safety on the list who's clearly better than Gregory and will work for $5.0M or less for 2014, I haven't identified him yet.
- Harmon developed nicely in his rookie season, but I'm not sure he's ready to replace Gregory yet. A restructure/extension might save $1.0M for 2014.
- Tavon Wilson is an unknown wrt positional play, but his ST contributions probably enable him to stick sround through Camp.
- Kanorris Davis seems to be a very good ST guy as well, but I have no idea if he can play the position well enough to be even an adequate backup (or a better backup than Tavon).
- Safety seems really thin to me again with only Gregory, McCourty and Harmon seeming to be reliable.
"Easy/early" cuts:
Bequette -- 0.440
Sopoaga --- 2.750
A. Wilson - 1.166 (possibly)
TOTAL ----- 4.356
Possible restructures:
Wilfork --- 4.000
Kelly ----- 1.000
Gregory --- 1.000
TOTAL ---- 6.000
DT surplus - 1.485 (three of Vellano, Armstead, Grissom, Forston - but probably not all of them till end of Camp)
So, somewhere between $5.0M and $10.0M might be gained against the cap fairly quickly, but then offset by new contracts for McCourty, Siliga, Talib (or replacement) and Fletcher (or replacement). Reducing the surplus DT population would be an end-of-Camp gain and unlikely to affect initial Free Agency moves.
----------
Offense next post.