2014 CAP - Roster breakdown by Unit

MaineMan

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DEFENSE

Players' Cap numbers for [2014][2015][2016] in $Millions
(*) = player was on IR in 2013

Defensive End

Ninkovich -- [2.250][3.450][2.850]
Chandler --- [2.229][2.600][UFA]
Bequette --- [0.710][0.800][UFA] -- saves [0.440] if cut
Buchanan -- [0.508][0.598][0.688]
Carter ------ UFA

- Bequette is pretty useless, even on ST (where Buchanan has shined)
- Carter will go back to the speed-dial roster
- That leaves only three DEs. Sure, Collins and HT may be able to fill in at times, but it would seriously weaken the LB corps to have to move them up front full time. Seems very likely that a (relatively cheap) UFA and a draft pick will be added (haven't done enough homework to suggest names for either, though).

DL Interior

*Wilfork -- [11.600][UFA] --------- saves [8.000] if cut/retires, etc. Restructure might save [4.000]
Sopoaga --- [3.750][3.500][UFA] -- saves [2.750] if cut
Kelly ------- [3.000][UFA] --------- saves [2.500] if cut; a restructure/extension might net $1.0M for 2014
Siliga ------ [0.570][UFA]
C. Jones --- [0.495][0.585][0.675]
Vellano ---- [0.495][0.585][UFA]
*Armstead - [0.495][0.585][UFA]
*Grissom --- [0.495][0.585][UFA]
Forston, R/F

- Cap-wise, it would be a blessing if Wilfork can't come back. Roster-wise, Vince retiring would open up a spot for a prime UFA -OR- a high draft pick (again, no names yet).
- Sopoaga is an easy cut.
- I think Kelly is probably worth a lot more than what he's being paid (and that he has a much easier comeback road than Wilfork), and that a primary rotation of Kelly/Siliga/Jones might be okay for 2014.
- Vellano was a great reserve for 2013, but he may be competing with Armstead, Grissom and Forston for a 5th DT spot.
- Siliga may need to be extended this season.


Linebackers

*Mayo ------- [7.600][9.600][9.850]
Hightower ---- [2.107][2.458][UFA]
Collins ------- [0.855][1.026][1.197]
Beauharnais -- [0.507][0.597][0.687]
Ja'G. Davis --- [0.495][0.585][RFA]
Spikes ------- [UFA]
Fletcher ------ [UFA]
Taylor Reed, R/F

- Mayo could see a restructure/extension in 2015.
- Mayo/HT/Collins could be a great starting trio, but there's not much depth behind them.
- Spikes, in spite of his coverage issues, still graded out very well (PFF) and his fire is something the defense sorely needs more of. The Pats may make an offer but likely get outbid.
- It's disturbing that Beauharnais couldn't perform well enough on ST to be active. He could be the next Bequette.
- Fletcher probably gets another 1-year/short money deal (maybe up to $1.0M)
- I'm guessing another Day-Two draft pick at LB (+ another UDFA) is more likely than a substantial free agent.


Cornerback

Arrington -- [3.625][4.625][5.125]
Ryan ------ [0.656][0.746][0.826]
Dennard --- [0.584][0.674][UFA]
Green ----- [0.495][UFA]
Talib ------ [UFA]

- Arrington certainly is expensive, but it costs $1.25M more to cut him than to keep him.
- I haven't yet done enough homework to develop a reasonable basis for suggesting how the market may value Talib or, really, what the various dependencies are to determine what the Pats may be able to afford. It's pretty clear, though, that, if he goes, his replacement will need to be a fairly substantial FA and/or a very good draft pick.
- Green was a pretty good special teamer, and it's perhaps encouraging that the Pats felt comfortable using him to replace Cole for CB depth.

Safety

Gregory --- [3.183][UFA] --------- saves [2.350] to cut him
McCourty -- [2.115][UFA]
*A. Wilson - [1.833][1.833][UFA] -- saves [1.166] to cut him
T. Wilson -- [1.150][1.333][UFA] -- saves [0.396] to cut him
Harmon ---- [0.634][0.724][0.814]
K. Davis --- [0.495][0.585][RFA]

- McCourty needs to be paid (no estimate from me yet).
- Not seeing any pre-Free Agency cuts here, except maybe if Adrian Wilson is clearly not coming back from his Achilles before Camp.
- Gregory is far from ideal, but still cheaper than Sanders was in his last season (IIRC). If there's a UFA safety on the list who's clearly better than Gregory and will work for $5.0M or less for 2014, I haven't identified him yet.
- Harmon developed nicely in his rookie season, but I'm not sure he's ready to replace Gregory yet. A restructure/extension might save $1.0M for 2014.
- Tavon Wilson is an unknown wrt positional play, but his ST contributions probably enable him to stick sround through Camp.
- Kanorris Davis seems to be a very good ST guy as well, but I have no idea if he can play the position well enough to be even an adequate backup (or a better backup than Tavon).
- Safety seems really thin to me again with only Gregory, McCourty and Harmon seeming to be reliable.


"Easy/early" cuts:
Bequette -- 0.440
Sopoaga --- 2.750
A. Wilson - 1.166 (possibly)
TOTAL ----- 4.356

Possible restructures:
Wilfork --- 4.000
Kelly ----- 1.000
Gregory --- 1.000
TOTAL ---- 6.000

DT surplus - 1.485 (three of Vellano, Armstead, Grissom, Forston - but probably not all of them till end of Camp)

So, somewhere between $5.0M and $10.0M might be gained against the cap fairly quickly, but then offset by new contracts for McCourty, Siliga, Talib (or replacement) and Fletcher (or replacement). Reducing the surplus DT population would be an end-of-Camp gain and unlikely to affect initial Free Agency moves.

----------
Offense next post.
 
OFFENSE

Cap numbers for [2014][2015][2016] in $Millions
(*) = player on IR in 2013

Running backs

Vereen -- [1.101][UFA]
Ridley --- [0.940][UFA]
Bolden -- [0.575][RFA]
Blount -- [UFA]
Jonas Gray, R/F
Sam McGuffie, R/F

- Seems like the RB corps just starts coming together (and cheaply!) and suddenly they could all be gone in a year. Crap.
- Vereen should get extended this season.
- Ridley can wait until he proves he's got a firm grip on the handle (and hasn't lost anything significant as a result)
- Bolden is a better-than average reserve and a VG special-teamer, but can be tendered in 2015.
- Blount, I believe, can be re-signed in a way that provides him with a satisfying payday while still keeping his 2014 cap number around $2.0M - $2.5M.
- Gray may have some potential as a Ridley/Blount type backup, though McGuffie is more a WR.


Wide Receiver

Amendola -- [4.700][5.700][6.700]
Dobson ---- [0.779][0.935][1.091]
*Boyce ---- [0.614][0.704][0.794]
Thompkins - [0.496][0.586][RFA]
*Harrison -- [0.495][0.585][RFA]
*TJ Moe --- [0.495][0.585][RFA]
Edelman --- [UFA]
Collie ------ [UFA]
Reggie Dunn, R/F
Greg Orton, R/F

- With Amendola cost $4.7M to keep for 2014 and $6.8M to cut ($2.1M more), about the only way to keep Edelman would be to give him 5 years with something like a $1.0M 2014 base and a crap-tonne of bonus (and cut Amendola next season when it actually maybe saves a little something).
- Collie can probably be re-upped for vet minimum again, though that likely wouldn't need to happen until the start of Camp.
- Boyce, Harrison and Moe likely stick through Rookie Camp/1st OTAs unless there's a drastic change.
- BTW, Orton is pretty big; Dunn is really, really fast. And that's about it.
- There don't seem to be any cap reductions available here at all - only a potential cap increase to retain Edelman.


Tight End/FB

Gronk ---- [5.400][8.650][8.815]
Develin -- [0.570][RFA]
Hooman --- [UFA]
Mulligan - [UFA]
Williams - [UFA]

- Develin seems likely to be kept for the moment, and Hooman re-upped for vet minimum (well under $1.0M).
- Mulligan and Williams need to be replaced by:
--- (A) a short-money (non-guaranteed) vet who can catch for 300-400 yds and 2-3 TDs PLUS a mid-round pick who may be able to do the same
--- (B) a longer-money vet who seems likely to catch for 500+ yds and 4-6 TDs PLUS a UDFA flyer
--- (C) a high draft pick who appears to have "Gronk-lite" potential (PLUS a UDFA flyer and maybe keep Mulligan or Williams temporarily)
--- Pick only ONE, because the Pats are highly unlikely to be able to afford more than that.
----- IOW, only cap increases out of this unit, too.

Quarterback

Brady --- [14.800][13.000][14.000]
Mallett -- [0.938][UFA]

- Too bad the Pats can't just trade Mallett for $5M in cash.
- A halfway decent veteran backup (McCown, Hill) might be had for what Mallet is scheduled to make in 2014.
- A 2nd-round rookie QB might be about the same.
- If Mallett goes away, the Pats probably need both until the end of Camp.
- Cap increase of around $2.0M (still cheaper than extending Mallett).

OL - Center

Barker -- [0.495][0.585][RFA]
Wendell - [UFA]
Cave, R/F

- Barker was taking up a roster spot the whole 2013 season, so one might think that he's got some special potential. OTOH, with the way Wendell was playing, one would think that if there was anyone better on the roster, he'd have been in there instead (or something like Connolly moved back to Center with Barker or Kline taking over at RG, etc.). But, that didn't happen.
- A 2nd-round Center probably costs around $800k-$900k for 2014, just slightly less than what Wendell made for 2013.

OL - Guard (some of these might also qualify for Center)

Mankins -- [10.500][11.000][7.000] -- saves $2.000M if cut or traded
Connolly -- [4.083][UFA] ------------ saves $3.000M if cut or traded, maybe $2.5 if restructured
*Zusevics - [0.574][RFA]
Kline ----- [0.495][0.585][RFA]

- Zusevics (remember him? 2013's Dowling-Crable Award winner?) is listed as OT but kinda guard-size. Easy cut (unless he's the next Stephen Neal).
- Kline looked pretty good in limited emergency action. And he's cheap.
- Connolly might be restructured down to, say, $1.5M (about the same as a late-1st-round Guard)
- Interior OL looking pretty thin on both quantity and quality.

OL - Tackle

*Vollmer -- [3.750][5.000][5.000]
Solder ---- [2.717][UFA]
Cannon ---- [0.744][UFA]
*Schwab --- [0.495][0.585][RFA]
Switek ---- [UFA]
Devey, R/F
Mattes, R/F


- Vollmer would cost about $1.500M to cut loose
- Solder needs an extension, as does Cannon, though both could wait till 2015.
- Switek was decent depth for short money and could probably be re-upped for about $1.0M again.

------------------

Special Teams

Gostkowski - [3.800][UFA]
Aiken (LS) - [RFA]
Allen ------ [0.495][0.585][RFA]
Slater ----- [2.267][UFA]
Ebner ------ [0.594][0.684][UFA]
White ------ [0.645][UFA]

- Gost and Slater could be restructured/extended and save $2.0M-$2.5M between them
- Offsetting some of that would be Aiken receiving the low tender and then signing for $600k-$700k like Hooman did in 2013 (Aiken made $555k in 2013).
- There always ends up being someone like Ebner and White, so there's no actual cap savings in losing either of them.

-------------------------------

Between Offense and ST, there's not a lot of easy potential for cap savings, maybe $3M or so between one easy cut and a couple restructurings. But, it appears that more than that pittance will have to be spent merely to cover some basic needs.
 
Jogged by a PM I received today from a highly-valued source, I'll offer the following disclaimer:

This thread is primarily an attempt to consolidate roster cap info into one spot for the purposes of easy reference and general evaluation by unit. I've used numbers from Spotrac as my starting point because it's easy to use - to sort the list by whatever, to see contract history with one click and to get comps on other teams' player with just a couple clicks. That said, I acknowledge that some of the details are off by a bit, mostly related to how bonuses (other than straight signing bonuses) and incentives actually affect a player's cap number. Miguel does a much better job of this and my intention is to mine his resource to clean up some of the numbers as I go along.

Another intention of mine (we'll see how this goes) is to try to post ranges (in another thread) of top 25 cap hits by position (along with age and 2013 production) so we might have a more well-grounded feel for the potential cap impact of free agents - the Pats' own, as well as those we fantasize about adding to the roster.

Anyway, my hope is to help clarify the "big picture" wrt the 2014 roster and provide a way to track changes as they happen.
 
I will never understand the Arrington contract. He was coming off an awful year and they go and give him all that money. They could have found anyone off the street to give them what arrington has.
 
http://bostinno.streetwise.co/2014/...-have-a-big-impact-on-the-patriots-offseason/

From the link above:

"The other option they have is if [Hernandez] is also found to be involved with a murder that pre-dated his contract the Patriots will likely have a legal claim to state that his contract was invalid because Hernandez misrepresented himself at the time he signed it. "

It would be nice if the 7.5M Aperp hit was freed up........
Maybe Goodell can help out?
 
http://bostinno.streetwise.co/2014/...-have-a-big-impact-on-the-patriots-offseason/

From the link above:

"The other option they have is if [Hernandez] is also found to be involved with a murder that pre-dated his contract the Patriots will likely have a legal claim to state that his contract was invalid because Hernandez misrepresented himself at the time he signed it. "

It would be nice if the 7.5M Aperp hit was freed up........
Maybe Goodell can help out?


Season over, Patriots turn attention to cap

With the Patriots’ offseason upon us, let’s take a look at a few tidbits concerning the salary cap:
■ The cap is projected to be $125 million-$126 million next season, and the Patriots can add $4.1068 million in unused cap space from 2013. But the team does not enter the offseason in great cap shape, with nearly $127 million committed to the top 51 players, plus dead money from players already cut. The Patriots almost certainly will need to extend, restructure, or cut players in order to create space, with Vince Wilfork ($11.6 million cap number), Dan Connolly ($4.083 million), Stephen Gostkowski ($3.8 million), Isaac Sopoaga ($3.5 million), and Steve Gregory ($3.183 million) as prime candidates.
Complicating matters is Aaron Hernandez, who is on the books for a $7.5 million cap charge next season. The Patriots are in an awkward position of having to root for Hernandez to be officially charged in the 2012 Boston double murder, which would thwart his grievance against the team and give the Patriots recourse to recoup his entire $12.5 million signing bonus. The Patriots will likely be able to reduce his cap charge by $3.25 million once they avoid paying him his final bonus installment in March (which he is fighting), but any other cap relief will only come if they can recoup dollars already paid to him, which seems unlikely given his legal costs and other bills.
■ Also complicating matters is safety Devin McCourty receiving a $3 million salary escalator for 2014 based on him playing 80 percent of snaps in each of his first four seasons. McCourty’s cap number was supposed to be $2.115 million but instead will be $5.115 million, giving the Patriots incentive to sign him to a contract extension and lower his cap number for next season.
Danny Amendola may be fighting for a roster spot come March 11, the first day of the 2014 league year. Amendola signed a five-year deal worth $28.5 million ($10 million guaranteed last March), and $2 million of his $3 million base salary in 2014 becomes guaranteed if he’s on the roster at 4 p.m. on March 11. Amendola is coming off a disappointing season in which he missed four games and lost Tom Brady’s trust, and could be in danger of being cut. It would cost the Patriots $4.8 million against the cap to outright cut him, which seems unlikely given their tight cap situation, but they could designate him a post-June 1 cut, which would give him cap charges of $1.2 million in 2014 and $3.6 million in 2015. The Patriots could then use those savings to sign free agent Julian Edelman.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2...es-baseball/3gWjuP6LVgJgA1No6uOQqJ/story.html
 
Wilfork needs to go. Sorry to those that get emotional about this sort of thing, but given his age and injury it's just time. They run mostly 4-3 looks now. They need someone that can penetrate. The pass rush is pathetic.
 

Just re-reading stuff for perspective, I happened to notice the bit in the Glode thing about Amendola losing Brady's "trust" (a seriously overused bit of faux-analysis, IMHO).

Anyway, I'm not sure when that would've happened. As late as wk-15, Brady targeted Amendola 14 times and he caught 10 for 131 yards. While it's true that Amendola only saw 6 targets combined in wks 16 & 17 (when the Pats started running the ball more), Vereen's targets were also down fairly significantly, while Dobson, coming back from injury, saw several targets over those last two games.

Clearly, Edelman was Brady's most consistent favorite target, but the involvement of all the other guys, including but not limited to Amendola, varied quite a bit week-to-week. Seems to me that relates more to game-plans and responses to coverages than it might to any "loss of trust."
 
Just re-reading stuff for perspective, I happened to notice the bit in the Glode thing about Amendola losing Brady's "trust" (a seriously overused bit of faux-analysis, IMHO).

"

In that article it described the good work of the Seahawk GM Schneider on their drafts. I also read recently that Carrol wanted more control of the draft when he came back to the NFL. Which is easy to understand. They are definitely doing something right. I get the feeling that it is Carrol picking the DBs in those late rounds.

And on incentive laden contracts, how do they dovetail with the cap?
I could give every player on the team a minimum salary but with massive incentives?
 
The Pats will have to be frugal in FA this year with the cap as it is. Cutting Sopoaga, getting VW to take a pay cut (restructuring means more years the Pats won't be happy with imo) and a few other cuts won't give the kind of FA $$ the Pats usually enjoy.

Talk of franchising Talib is crazy.

The New England Patriots got a bargain when Aqib Talib earned his first career Pro Bowl nod on a one-year, $5 million salary in 2013.

Talib was forced to settle for a one-year contract last offseason because teams were wary of character issues and a suspension risk. Although he managed to stay out of trouble and earned Charles Woodson's praise as the NFL's top shutdown corner in the first half of the season, a recurring hip injury limited his effectiveness down the stretch.
Talib's preference is to remain in New England, where his NFL career took off. If his asking price reaches the range of $7 to 8 million per year, the Patriots might just let him establish his value on the open market for a second consecutive offseason.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap20...ey?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=facebook
 
Two players need to rescructure there deals. One of both ofb them might not be on the pats roster. Mankind & Wilfork both over 30 making 10 & 11 mill dollars.
 
The Pats will have to be frugal in FA this year with the cap as it is. Cutting Sopoaga, getting VW to take a pay cut (restructuring means more years the Pats won't be happy with imo) and a few other cuts won't give the kind of FA $$ the Pats usually enjoy.

Talk of franchising Talib is crazy.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap20...ey?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=facebook
Where are they getting "Talib was forced to take a 1 year deal"??? All the word out there was Pats offered deals in the 3-5 year range and Talib wouldn't take them and opted for a single year contract.

Like http://www.nepatriotslife.com/2013/03/aqib-talib-re-signs-one-year-deal-with.html
 
While my eyes tend to glaze over when cap numbers are discussed, I'd like to thank MM for a brilliant synopsis that helps to shed a lot of light as to our plans for 2014.

There is a lot of meat on that bone, but it helps illustrate how the team will project a cheaper guy that it feels can provide similar performance as we saw last year when they replaced Zoltan Mesko with Ryan Allen -- which was a surprise for most of us if we didn't look at the cap. It turned out to be a smart move.

I'm not sure what savings could result from cutting Slater (2.267M CN) but it wouldn't be unlike Bill to see that the value of a gunner on KOs (for instance) has been lessened by all the touchbacks and he could concievably plug Ebner in that spot for less. I'm not saying Ebner is a better player, but he is really coming on STs, signed for an extra year and approximately 1/4th the cost of our pro-bowl ST'er who is a UFA next year. That is an example of how you can bank, say, 1M and not lose all that much in the process. The Pats make relatively minor moves like that all the time, but without knowing what the number actually is this is just an example.

I'll bookmark this thread and refer back to it from time to time. Again, great job and I thank you for all the effort.
 
While my eyes tend to glaze over when cap numbers are discussed, I'd like to thank MM for a brilliant synopsis that helps to shed a lot of light as to our plans for 2014.

There is a lot of meat on that bone, but it helps illustrate how the team will project a cheaper guy that it feels can provide similar performance as we saw last year when they replaced Zoltan Mesko with Ryan Allen -- which was a surprise for most of us if we didn't look at the cap. It turned out to be a smart move.

I'm not sure what savings could result from cutting Slater (2.267M CN) but it wouldn't be unlike Bill to see that the value of a gunner on KOs (for instance) has been lessened by all the touchbacks and he could concievably plug Ebner in that spot for less. I'm not saying Ebner is a better player, but he is really coming on STs, signed for an extra year and approximately 1/4th the cost of our pro-bowl ST'er who is a UFA next year. That is an example of how you can bank, say, 1M and not lose all that much in the process. The Pats make relatively minor moves like that all the time, but without knowing what the number actually is this is just an example.

I'll bookmark this thread and refer back to it from time to time. Again, great job and I thank you for all the effort.


I took a lot of heat for predicting Mesko would be released in favor of Allen but it made all the sense in the world financially esp. since Mesko's performance had begun to slide badly. This year, Ghost will likely see some high level competition in camp. His pay is more than BB likes for kickers and a rookie would cost next to nothing. The difference w/ Ghost is that his performance is still quite good.

Slater is another who could see his pay cut despite his Pro Bowl status.
 
I took a lot of heat for predicting Mesko would be released in favor of Allen but it made all the sense in the world financially esp. since Mesko's performance had begun to slide badly. This year, Ghost will likely see some high level competition in camp. His pay is more than BB likes for kickers and a rookie would cost next to nothing. The difference w/ Ghost is that his performance is still quite good.

Slater is another who could see his pay cut despite his Pro Bowl status.

He might not be alone another fan favorite . Could be gone if they don't bring down there high cap number
 
While my eyes tend to glaze over when cap numbers are discussed, I'd like to thank MM for a brilliant synopsis that helps to shed a lot of light as to our plans for 2014.

There is a lot of meat on that bone, but it helps illustrate how the team will project a cheaper guy that it feels can provide similar performance as we saw last year when they replaced Zoltan Mesko with Ryan Allen -- which was a surprise for most of us if we didn't look at the cap. It turned out to be a smart move.

I'm not sure what savings could result from cutting Slater (2.267M CN) but it wouldn't be unlike Bill to see that the value of a gunner on KOs (for instance) has been lessened by all the touchbacks and he could concievably plug Ebner in that spot for less. I'm not saying Ebner is a better player, but he is really coming on STs, signed for an extra year and approximately 1/4th the cost of our pro-bowl ST'er who is a UFA next year. That is an example of how you can bank, say, 1M and not lose all that much in the process. The Pats make relatively minor moves like that all the time, but without knowing what the number actually is this is just an example.

I'll bookmark this thread and refer back to it from time to time. Again, great job and I thank you for all the effort.

Ebner has certainly been doing a fine job on ST getting downfield, tying up blockers making tackles, etc., but Slater is still almost always the first guy down and is still in on the vast majority of the tackles (if not making them solo). And there's also the question of leadership. Slater is the "QB" of ST units. He's the guy who's not only responsible for getting the guys lined up and on top of their assignments on the field, he's also responsible for making the adjustments to the coverage based on what he sees on the field. Now, if Ebner has shown the coaches that he's ready to assume that role, Slater may be expendable (possibly even in a trade). Until then, though, Slater is to BB what Izzo was to Jimmy Johnson in Miami (and later, to BB for 8 seasons).
 
Ebner has certainly been doing a fine job on ST getting downfield, tying up blockers making tackles, etc., but Slater is still almost always the first guy down and is still in on the vast majority of the tackles (if not making them solo). And there's also the question of leadership. Slater is the "QB" of ST units. He's the guy who's not only responsible for getting the guys lined up and on top of their assignments on the field, he's also responsible for making the adjustments to the coverage based on what he sees on the field. Now, if Ebner has shown the coaches that he's ready to assume that role, Slater may be expendable (possibly even in a trade). Until then, though, Slater is to BB what Izzo was to Jimmy Johnson in Miami (and later, to BB for 8 seasons).

Yep, Ebner has made a couple of big mistakes in his short career, but if people take the time to watch him they'll see that he is almost unblockable and really gives it his all. He's like a maniac. I think he's clearly improved and while his future as a safety is dubious, we KNOW that Slater is useless on offense.

He's a great player just for his ST contributions-- that isn't news, but I'm just trying to illustrate something that wouldn't surprise me based on recent history.

Vollmer would be another guy, who I really like, whose number might not be justifiable given his steady physical woes and Cannon's improved play at short money.

It's kind of like trying to answer the question of what percentage Ebner is of Slater and Cannon of Vollmer. Can you live with 80% or so for a fraction of the cost and the ability to shore up a position of bigger need?

I don't even want to think about Vince right now, but that number is huge.
 
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