SB top bets and meddling

bishbash

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I'm still in SoCal, where the local sports radio stations seem more interested in SB bets than anything else. Hearing some of the prop bets got me wondering about how easy so many could be fixed.
I'm not talking about players throwing their performance, but related folks affecting a bet. Things like length of National Anthem, color of a performers hair or clothing choice, or number of times certain words are uttered in game coverage.
These are all things that could be so easily tweaked by the person being bet on and it would be so hard for someone to detect. For example, an announcer could say "Gronk" on air more than a certain number of times and their third cousin makes a pile of money.

(Auto correct changed title to top from prop, dagnabit)
 
According to the Globe this evening, the money is now 53% on Atlanta. The article says that Vegas is very happy with the line and betting spread.

That has to be wrong. Word was that it was 68% on the Pats as late as Thursday. That's a 35% swing over a 2 day stretch. Lot of really stupid people out there who don't know jack shit about the game on the field if this is true.

If I'm reading this right this represents new money over the last 24 hours, not totals. I can't see anybody that knows anything putting real money on Atlanta. Their defense couldn't stop a HS team.
 
That has to be wrong. Word was that it was 68% on the Pats as late as Thursday. That's a 35% swing over a 2 day stretch. Lot of really stupid people out there who don't know jack shit about the game on the field if this is true.

If I'm reading this right this represents new money over the last 24 hours, not totals. I can't see anybody that knows anything putting real money on Atlanta. Their defense couldn't stop a HS team.

Here's the article:

https://www.boston.com/sports/super-bowl-li/2017/02/04/1-million-super-bowl-bet-falcons-vegas

A bettor using his phone app put $1.1 million on the Atlanta Falcons plus 3 points in the Super Bowl, part of an influx of money that could make Sunday a record day in Las Vegas sports books.

Sports books around the city said betting was strong leading up to the game, with a good chance the action will top the record $132.5 million wagered on last year’s game between Denver and Carolina.

“I wouldn’t bet against it,” said Jay Kornegay, who runs the sports book at the Westgate Las Vegas. “It will be close, but I think we could easily set another record.”

The unidentified bettor who wagered the $1.1 million was a customer of CG Technology, which operates a string of sports books in the city. The bettor will get $2.1 million back if the Falcons win the game or lose by 1 or 2 points.

“For a Super Bowl a bet of that size is not all that unusual,” said Jason Simbal, vice president of risk for CG Technology. “Historically we’ll generally take a bet of $500,000 and up on the Super Bowl.”

Simbal said the line at his company’s books did not move on the big bet, largely because of a number of smaller bets made on the New England Patriots. He and other bookmakers said there was such strong action on both teams that the line hasn’t moved off 3 points since it was first set nearly two weeks ago.

“We’re pretty balanced, with 53 percent of the money on the Falcons,” Simbal said. “It seems like everybody else is in a similar position, too.”

At the Westgate, Kornegay said the betting line was 80 deep Saturday afternoon as bettors who had been studying the line for the last 12 days began putting money on their favorite. Kornegay said bookies were getting such good two-way action that there is almost no risk of losing money on the biggest bet game of the year.

“It’s a very comfortable booking game for us,” Kornegay said. “We pretty much know what we need to do and it’s very easy to position yourself there with not much effort.”

The situation was similar at the South Point hotel-casino, where veteran oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro was enjoying a relatively relaxing day Saturday.

“This is a bookmaker’s delight,” Vaccaro said. “We haven’t had to move one number, one side, one total or the money line.”

Nevada sports books made $13.3 million on last year’s game, which drew a record handle. That was in line with the 10 percent books charge bettors as the vigorish or “vig” as it’s known in the industry.

Bettors can wager on hundreds of so-called “props,” or proposition bets at most books that include everything from who will win the coin flip to whether the game will go to overtime. The props have taken on a life of their own in recent years, with books trying to outdo each other with new offerings.

At the William Hill string of books, one bettor wagered $500 that the Patriots would score exactly 46 points. The odds against it were 150-1, meaning the ticket would cash for $75,000 if it hit.

Another wager was $100 someone put on there being no touchdowns in the game at 500-1 odds, which would pay off $50,000.

Vaccaro, who has been running sports books in Las Vegas since the late 1970s, said he can’t remember a Super Bowl where there was almost no movement on any of the lines.

“This is as good as it gets for us,” he said.
 
If I was Vegas right now this is what I would bet for prop bet. Right now Vegas is saying 1.5 yards and over for a touchdown. I'm definitely saying inside 1.5 yards. I predict a pass interference penalty by the Falcons that will put the Patriots on the one-yard line in a critical situation of this game. I also predict the over on this game. The Patriots will score over 40 points easily. The only thing I feel uneasy about in this game is our defense. I know we are number one in scoring but we haven't really faced great quarterbacks this year. My opinion Roethlisberger blows and Tannehill was the only other guy that was halfway decent that we face this year. So in my opinion this will be by far the best quarterback the Patriots defense has faced and by far the best offense the Patriots has faced and it will be extremely interesting just see how Bill Belichick takes away Julio Jones and the rest of those Speedy receivers.
 
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