HERNANDEZ ......(3290) (4073) (4200) (5800) ... contracted thru 2017
LLOYD .............(2000) (4500) (5500) (UFA)
WELKER ...........(9515) (UFA)
EDELMAN-IR .......(615) (UFA)
EBERT ...............(405) .(495) (ERFA)
HOLMES ............(555) .(645) (UFA)
AIKEN ...............(480) (ERFA)
BRANCH ............(925) (UFA)
STALLWORTH-IR .(825) (UFA)
(No, Slater is NOT a WR.)
HERNANDEZ (6023/250) As a between-the-numbers possession guy, his receiving skills are very good. But, his blocking is also only "okay" - for a WR. For a TE, his blocking is mediocre and has been since forever. And he's not really a lead blocker out of the FB spot (even Hooman was probably a bit better). So, IMHO, this TE/H-back "title" for Hernandez is slightly overdone, and I think of him simply as a very big, versatile WR. In a sense, Hernandez is the Pats' version of Anquan Boldin (6005/220). He hasn't been quite as physical as Boldin and isn't quite as accomplished (Hernandez is 23 with 3 years experience; Boldin is 32 with 11 years experience), but he hasn't hit his ceiling yet.
LLOYD (6001/184) posted receiving stats (74/911, 4TD) that ended up surpassing the first year receiving stats of all 39 of the WRs acquired by BB (draftee and FA) except for two - Welker and Moss. So, the Pats got their money out of him in 2012. That said, Lloyd is a prototypical #2/#3 outside possession guy who was, unfortunately, thrust into #1 type expectations. Also, Lloyd will turn 32 in July and is slated to pull down over twice as much $$ in 2013.
WELKER (5086/185) has averaged #1 WR stats for five years with a somewhat lower YPC (that is mostly supported by YAC) but a higher catch rate (almost 70%, vs. the typical 60%-65% for "true #1s". Welker has been a perfect match for what Brady has done better than any other QB (quick reads and quick throws to the short middle). No "new guy", by himself, is going to come close to matching Welker's production in that role ("80% of Welker" is still about 100 catches for 1000 yards and 5 TDs). Welker is also 2 months older than Lloyd, relies a lot more on elite quickness and takes a lot more punishment. Welker's Franchise Tag number is $11.4M but it might as well be $50M because any new contract will likely not allow him to hit the 2013 cap for much more than about $7.5M and still be playing for the Pats. So, it's not realistic, IMO, to expect that any replacement slot WR would provide "80% of Welker" (see above) for "30% of Welker's salary" (IOW, around $2.5M). OTOH, the Pats aren't likely to simply let him walk. If the Pats and Welker can't come to terms, I'd guess, instead, Welker ends up in a tag-and-trade scenario that returns the Pats a 3rd rounder in exchange.
EDELMAN (5103/195) is already among the most accomplished punt returners in franchise history - not, really. He's first in average per return at 13.2 (among guys who've returned at least six punts), he's already 7th in career punt return yardage (he passed Faulk with his second punt return in wk-12 vs MIA), and he's tied with Fryar and Brown for career PR TDs at 3. That alone would almost give him a new contract. However, he's also been a more than adequate #4 WR in an offense that rarely deploys 3 WR anymore, much less 4. Since 2000, only 8 (of 39) Pats' WRs acquired by BB have caught for more yards than Edelman and only 6 of those WRs have caught more TDs. All those ahead of him have been #1/#2/#3 guys. Though Edelman is generally viewed as primarily a slot guy, he's NOT going to be anything close to a 1-to-1 replacement for Welker. However, he has proven that he's capable of contributing something worthwhile there and certainly seems worthy of another contract (say, $1.5M-$2.0M for 2012), especially considering that the odds of finding a brand new guy who will be immediately as successful in making a connection with Brady are, historically, about 1 in 5.
EBERT (5106/211) was brought back from NFL Limbo, but it was over two months after spending just a week with Philly, so he may be merely scout team filler at this point.
HOLMES (6043/223) WAS only late-season scout team filler in 2012 (and has yet to become the "next big thing" that Jerrah predicted in Dallas).
AIKEN (6011/213) was promoted for 3 snaps & some KR blocking duty v. JAX (wk-16) and then sent back to PS and then re-promoted at the end.
BRANCH seems likely done after this season.
STALLWORTH seems may be slightly less "done" than Branch. He seemed to have a bit more speed and separation ability left than Branch did. And he's doing his ankle rehab in Foxboro instead of at home in FL, which might be viewed as an indication that he's serious about being on the roster for the Pats next year, at least part of the time. There's a possibility that he's re-signed at vet minimum for Camp.
Overall, it's hard to be definitive about what the 2013 WR corps might look like until the Welker situation is resolved one way or the other. If Welker stays, he's THE slot guy and the rest of the corps is built around him. If he goes, it seems like there are plenty of pieces already in place to form a fairly reasonable "slot by committee" approach. Either way, though, it's pretty clear that the corps needs something more in the way of a vertical threat and more help in the short/intermediate range outside the numbers. And, very quickly, this becomes an almost word-for-word repeat of what was said in February 2011 and February 2012.
Lloyd would be a fairly reasonably paid outside possession guy at $4.5M - if he was still 27 - so it's hard to say that he'll be able to continue to play up to his cap hit in 2013 and 2014. Edelman and Hernandez can do a little of that, but both would need to work really hard in the off-season to even get up to Lloyd's 2012 level. Still, it seems to me that there needs to be TWO pretty good outside posession guys in order for that part of the passing attack to be a real threat. Plus, IMO, neither of them can get deep along the boundary consistently enough to present a "vertical threat." Demps may have the speed, but he's really too short, unless he shows up with a Welker-level shake-and-bake.
A 2013 WR corps of Hernandez, Lloyd, Edelman, and a couple young developmental draft picks (or a relatively high draftee and a mid-range FA) would be far from the worst WR unit that Brady has ever had to deal with. And, with Gronk and (potentially) Ballard both being mis-match targets from the TE spots and Woody/Vereen being legit receiving threats out of the backfield (plus a re-legitimized ground game), the offense would probably get along okay without Welker.
It's been widely posited that BB might "double-dip" on the WR position this draft as he's done in recent previous drafts with TE, RB and DT. It's also possible that the Pats feel they already have the "second half" of such a double dip in-house with Aiken, Holmes and Ebert (and possibly, Demps) - meaning that BB may feel comfortable enough to risk going unusually early on a WR draft pick. OTOH, the "PS trio" may just be camp fodder and BB will double-dip anyway (provided he comes up with more draft picks somehow). Even drafting a 1st-rounder AND a 4th rounder would add less than $2.0M to the 2013 cap expense. WRT UFA WRs, the menu seems to consist of (A) highly-accomplished vets who would hit the 2013 cap for as much as I'd project Welker to under a new contract (IOW, something around $7.5M), (B) old guys who have been problem children and/or may not have any more left in the tank than Branch, and (C) JAGs.
CURRENT UNIT COST (with Lloyd) = $10.0M
--- Add Welker at $7.5M
--- Add Edelman at $2.0M
--- Add 1st-round draftee at $1.5M
--- Subtract Lloyd at $4.5M
Mix-and-match almost any scenario and the ultimate total comes out to somewhere around $15.0M to $20.0M.
LLOYD .............(2000) (4500) (5500) (UFA)
WELKER ...........(9515) (UFA)
EDELMAN-IR .......(615) (UFA)
EBERT ...............(405) .(495) (ERFA)
HOLMES ............(555) .(645) (UFA)
AIKEN ...............(480) (ERFA)
BRANCH ............(925) (UFA)
STALLWORTH-IR .(825) (UFA)
(No, Slater is NOT a WR.)
HERNANDEZ (6023/250) As a between-the-numbers possession guy, his receiving skills are very good. But, his blocking is also only "okay" - for a WR. For a TE, his blocking is mediocre and has been since forever. And he's not really a lead blocker out of the FB spot (even Hooman was probably a bit better). So, IMHO, this TE/H-back "title" for Hernandez is slightly overdone, and I think of him simply as a very big, versatile WR. In a sense, Hernandez is the Pats' version of Anquan Boldin (6005/220). He hasn't been quite as physical as Boldin and isn't quite as accomplished (Hernandez is 23 with 3 years experience; Boldin is 32 with 11 years experience), but he hasn't hit his ceiling yet.
LLOYD (6001/184) posted receiving stats (74/911, 4TD) that ended up surpassing the first year receiving stats of all 39 of the WRs acquired by BB (draftee and FA) except for two - Welker and Moss. So, the Pats got their money out of him in 2012. That said, Lloyd is a prototypical #2/#3 outside possession guy who was, unfortunately, thrust into #1 type expectations. Also, Lloyd will turn 32 in July and is slated to pull down over twice as much $$ in 2013.
WELKER (5086/185) has averaged #1 WR stats for five years with a somewhat lower YPC (that is mostly supported by YAC) but a higher catch rate (almost 70%, vs. the typical 60%-65% for "true #1s". Welker has been a perfect match for what Brady has done better than any other QB (quick reads and quick throws to the short middle). No "new guy", by himself, is going to come close to matching Welker's production in that role ("80% of Welker" is still about 100 catches for 1000 yards and 5 TDs). Welker is also 2 months older than Lloyd, relies a lot more on elite quickness and takes a lot more punishment. Welker's Franchise Tag number is $11.4M but it might as well be $50M because any new contract will likely not allow him to hit the 2013 cap for much more than about $7.5M and still be playing for the Pats. So, it's not realistic, IMO, to expect that any replacement slot WR would provide "80% of Welker" (see above) for "30% of Welker's salary" (IOW, around $2.5M). OTOH, the Pats aren't likely to simply let him walk. If the Pats and Welker can't come to terms, I'd guess, instead, Welker ends up in a tag-and-trade scenario that returns the Pats a 3rd rounder in exchange.
EDELMAN (5103/195) is already among the most accomplished punt returners in franchise history - not, really. He's first in average per return at 13.2 (among guys who've returned at least six punts), he's already 7th in career punt return yardage (he passed Faulk with his second punt return in wk-12 vs MIA), and he's tied with Fryar and Brown for career PR TDs at 3. That alone would almost give him a new contract. However, he's also been a more than adequate #4 WR in an offense that rarely deploys 3 WR anymore, much less 4. Since 2000, only 8 (of 39) Pats' WRs acquired by BB have caught for more yards than Edelman and only 6 of those WRs have caught more TDs. All those ahead of him have been #1/#2/#3 guys. Though Edelman is generally viewed as primarily a slot guy, he's NOT going to be anything close to a 1-to-1 replacement for Welker. However, he has proven that he's capable of contributing something worthwhile there and certainly seems worthy of another contract (say, $1.5M-$2.0M for 2012), especially considering that the odds of finding a brand new guy who will be immediately as successful in making a connection with Brady are, historically, about 1 in 5.
EBERT (5106/211) was brought back from NFL Limbo, but it was over two months after spending just a week with Philly, so he may be merely scout team filler at this point.
HOLMES (6043/223) WAS only late-season scout team filler in 2012 (and has yet to become the "next big thing" that Jerrah predicted in Dallas).
AIKEN (6011/213) was promoted for 3 snaps & some KR blocking duty v. JAX (wk-16) and then sent back to PS and then re-promoted at the end.
BRANCH seems likely done after this season.
STALLWORTH seems may be slightly less "done" than Branch. He seemed to have a bit more speed and separation ability left than Branch did. And he's doing his ankle rehab in Foxboro instead of at home in FL, which might be viewed as an indication that he's serious about being on the roster for the Pats next year, at least part of the time. There's a possibility that he's re-signed at vet minimum for Camp.
Overall, it's hard to be definitive about what the 2013 WR corps might look like until the Welker situation is resolved one way or the other. If Welker stays, he's THE slot guy and the rest of the corps is built around him. If he goes, it seems like there are plenty of pieces already in place to form a fairly reasonable "slot by committee" approach. Either way, though, it's pretty clear that the corps needs something more in the way of a vertical threat and more help in the short/intermediate range outside the numbers. And, very quickly, this becomes an almost word-for-word repeat of what was said in February 2011 and February 2012.
Lloyd would be a fairly reasonably paid outside possession guy at $4.5M - if he was still 27 - so it's hard to say that he'll be able to continue to play up to his cap hit in 2013 and 2014. Edelman and Hernandez can do a little of that, but both would need to work really hard in the off-season to even get up to Lloyd's 2012 level. Still, it seems to me that there needs to be TWO pretty good outside posession guys in order for that part of the passing attack to be a real threat. Plus, IMO, neither of them can get deep along the boundary consistently enough to present a "vertical threat." Demps may have the speed, but he's really too short, unless he shows up with a Welker-level shake-and-bake.
A 2013 WR corps of Hernandez, Lloyd, Edelman, and a couple young developmental draft picks (or a relatively high draftee and a mid-range FA) would be far from the worst WR unit that Brady has ever had to deal with. And, with Gronk and (potentially) Ballard both being mis-match targets from the TE spots and Woody/Vereen being legit receiving threats out of the backfield (plus a re-legitimized ground game), the offense would probably get along okay without Welker.
It's been widely posited that BB might "double-dip" on the WR position this draft as he's done in recent previous drafts with TE, RB and DT. It's also possible that the Pats feel they already have the "second half" of such a double dip in-house with Aiken, Holmes and Ebert (and possibly, Demps) - meaning that BB may feel comfortable enough to risk going unusually early on a WR draft pick. OTOH, the "PS trio" may just be camp fodder and BB will double-dip anyway (provided he comes up with more draft picks somehow). Even drafting a 1st-rounder AND a 4th rounder would add less than $2.0M to the 2013 cap expense. WRT UFA WRs, the menu seems to consist of (A) highly-accomplished vets who would hit the 2013 cap for as much as I'd project Welker to under a new contract (IOW, something around $7.5M), (B) old guys who have been problem children and/or may not have any more left in the tank than Branch, and (C) JAGs.
CURRENT UNIT COST (with Lloyd) = $10.0M
--- Add Welker at $7.5M
--- Add Edelman at $2.0M
--- Add 1st-round draftee at $1.5M
--- Subtract Lloyd at $4.5M
Mix-and-match almost any scenario and the ultimate total comes out to somewhere around $15.0M to $20.0M.
