Why I am optimistic about next season already.

Well, not the ideal way to begin an NFL career. While I don't have any numbers, I'd guess that the failure rate for skill position guys going sitting out their rookie year on IR with and Achilles injury might be even higher than that for guys who've already worked their way onto a roster for a year or so.




Again, this is the first I've heard that Kelly's knee injury was actually an ACL requiring surgery. If so, why did the Pats keep him on the roster for a month? Is there a source for this?

Reiss.
 
Patriots will win the AFC East because there isn't anything else there. That means an automatic home game. This will allow us Boston fans to marvel at how consistent and successful the team has been for so long. Then they will get dominated by a much more talented team, and we'll all applaud them for making it that far.


So what is the new team you be rooting for next season? Certainly won't be the Pats.
 
So what is the new team you be rooting for next season? Certainly won't be the Pats.

Whomever is the next flavor of the next year of course.

I know a guy who buys both teams that go to the superbowl and whomever wins, he wears their stuff. He says "I was a fan for over 20 years". He must be a fan of many teams. :coffee:
 
Yeah, because you're not a real fan unless you're completely delusional.
 
Top 5 Rookie DTs, regular season

Richardson: 78 TT, 3.5 sacks -- 16 games/15 starts
Jones: 54 TT, 6.0 sacks -- 13 games/11 starts
Vellano: 54 TT, 2.0 sacks -- 16 games/8 starts
Lotulelei: 42 TT, 3.0 sacks -- 16 games/16 starts
Short: 30 TT, 1.5 sacks -- 16 games/0 starts


Top 5 Rookie DTs, post-season
Jones: 7 TT, 1 sack
Lotulelei: 6 TT, 0 sacks
Vellano: 5 TT, 1 sack
Jenkins: 5 TT, 1 sack
Short: 5 TT, 0 sacks


Top 7 DTs (all), post season

Dorsey: 9 TT, 0 sacks
Siliga: 8 TT, 0 sacks
Jones: 7 TT, 1 sack
Knighton: 7 TT, 1
Bunkley: 7 TT, 0 sacksP
Lotulelei: 6 TT, 0 sacks
Vellano: 5 TT, 1 sack


Pats DTs, 2013 regular season:

Jones (6015/302): 54 TT, 6.0 sacks -- 13 games/11 starts
Vellano (6013/306): 54 TT, 2.0 sacks -- 16 games/8 m
Siliga (6016/325): 31 TT, 3.0 sacks (1 FF) -- 5 games/4 st: (6056/325): 22 TT, 2.5 sacks -- 5 games/5 starts
Wilfork (6012/325): 9 TT, 0 sacks -- 4 games/4 starts
Forston (6012/301): 3 TT, 0 sacks -- 2 games/0 starts
Sopoaga (6022/330): 2 TT, 1 sack -- 6 games/2 starts
M
Hgt/Wgt are from "official" draft season weigh-ins (Shrine, Senior, Combine). Height doesn't change much with time, but those published on roster listings in feet/inches usually contain rounding errors. Weight is, of course, variable - Wilfork certainly hasn't seen 325 in quite awhile; Jones looked heftier than 302 by the end of the season.

Vellano's weight was 305-306 at both Shrine Game and Senior Bowl weigh-ins. DT Scott Vallone, who was also on the Pats' 2013 off-season roster for awhile, officially weighed 285.


Not exactly sure what your point is in the above post. Those tackle statistics are misleading.

Pats gave up the third most rushing yards in the league.
Using the games SilverS. Played we gave up 121, 108, 89, 121, 169 yards.

Averages were 3.3, 4.3, 3.7, 4.3, 4.8 against Texans., Cleve. Miami.,Balt. Buffalo.

The average per run for the third worse run defense was 4.5 yards /run for the Pats.

Don't see much difference with SS average was 4.34 yards per run.

The huge questions are Wilfork and Kelly. Would think for sure a big run DT will be picked up.
 
Not exactly sure what your point is in the above post. Those tackle statistics are misleading.

Pats gave up the third most rushing yards in the league.
Using the games SilverS. Played we gave up 121, 108, 89, 121, 169 yards.

Averages were 3.3, 4.3, 3.7, 4.3, 4.8 against Texans., Cleve. Miami.,Balt. Buffalo.

The average per run for the third worse run defense was 4.5 yards /run for the Pats.

Don't see much difference with SS average was 4.34 yards per run.

The huge questions are Wilfork and Kelly. Would think for sure a big run DT will be picked up.

Not intended to address the run-D issue in any way. Merely contributing a reference for hgt/wgt and statistical production comparisons among DTs currently on the roster and stat comps with other DTs around the league.

So, no agenda at all.

WRT the run-D, overall YPC averages can be similarly misleading. My sense watching the games was that the interior DL became notably stouter as Siliga was worked in, but that, simultaneously and for unrelated causes, edge contain got leakier and allowed a few long QB escapes that may have bumped up those YPC numbers.

PFF keeps detailed stats for both offenses and defenses about where runs went (between the guards, between guard-tackle, between tackle-TE and around the outside) and yds/carry for each (this is great for identifying offensive tendencies, btw). Unfortunately, those stats are available by subscription only.

Pro-football-reference has detailed game breakdowns on who made tackles and where, separated by run-play and pass-play. Slogging through those may (or may not) provide some clear indication of where the run-D broke down for those games (and where each player's tackles came from and had the most impact). If I can find the time, I'll try to get into that, if only to check my own perceptions. If I do, and discover anything interesting (whether or not it verifies my perceptions) I'll post it.
 
Not intended to address the run-D issue in any way. Merely contributing a reference for hgt/wgt and statistical production comparisons among DTs currently on the roster and stat comps with other DTs around the league.

So, no agenda at all.

WRT the run-D, overall YPC averages can be similarly misleading. My sense watching the games was that the interior DL became notably stouter as Siliga was worked in, but that, simultaneously and for unrelated causes, edge contain got leakier and allowed a few long QB escapes that may have bumped up those YPC numbers.

PFF keeps detailed stats for both offenses and defenses about where runs went (between the guards, between guard-tackle, between tackle-TE and around the outside) and yds/carry for each (this is great for identifying offensive tendencies, btw). Unfortunately, those stats are available by subscription only.

Pro-football-reference has detailed game breakdowns on who made tackles and where, separated by run-play and pass-play. Slogging through those may (or may not) provide some clear indication of where the run-D broke down for those games (and where each player's tackles came from and had the most impact). If I can find the time, I'll try to get into that, if only to check my own perceptions. If I do, and discover anything interesting (whether or not it verifies my perceptions) I'll post it.

Another thing to consider is what defense were they playing in those games. If they were in their "base" defense, then that should make them more stout against the run. If they were in a nickel or dime, such as in the first Denver game, they would be more vulnerable to the run.

If it turns out that they were playing primarily a pass defense scheme, like they did for Denver, and gave up 140 yards with SS, then that would be a marked improvement over the Denver game.

Another variable that could impact the run defense was Spikes health. Not sure how one would gauge that but if his knee was bad on any given day, then that would have an impact on the running game.
 
Not exactly sure what your point is in the above post. Those tackle statistics are misleading.

Pats gave up the third most rushing yards in the league.
Using the games SilverS. Played we gave up 121, 108, 89, 121, 169 yards.

Averages were 3.3, 4.3, 3.7, 4.3, 4.8 against Texans., Cleve. Miami.,Balt. Buffalo.

The average per run for the third worse run defense was 4.5 yards /run for the Pats.

Don't see much difference with SS average was 4.34 yards per run.

The huge questions are Wilfork and Kelly. Would think for sure a big run DT will be picked up.
The defense really struggled against Houston's Ben Tate (22 carries for 102 yards & 3 TDs) and Buffalo's CJ Spiller (19 for 105). Fred Jackson also rushed for 60 yards on 14 carries for the Bills.

The Brown's running backs got nothing going all game long(McGahee 14 for 34, Ogbonnaya 5 for 9). Cleveland gained most of their yards on three runs by a receiver and their quarberback. A reverse by Josh Gordon went for 34 yards and Campbell scrambled twice for 27 yards. Their running backs were shut down.

Miami's Lamar Miller had some success, rushing for 61 yards on 14 carries. But the real problem that day was Miami's quarterback. Tannehill threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns with no picks...

The Ravens running backs were held in check all game long. Rice ran for only 40 yards on 11 carries and Pierce only gained 31 yards on 10 carries. The Ravens rushing total & YPC only look fine because Tyrod Taylor ran for 39 yards on three scrambles late in the game with Joe Flacco on the bench.

My point: The defense wasn't great against the run, but they held the Browns and Ravens in check. Only the Texans & Bills had great success on the ground. The Dolphins had succes running the ball. They didn't run the ball much though (only 21 attempts), because Tannehill was carving up New Englands secondary.
 
The defense really struggled against Houston's Ben Tate (22 carries for 102 yards & 3 TDs) and Buffalo's CJ Spiller (19 for 105). Fred Jackson also rushed for 60 yards on 14 carries for the Bills.

The Brown's running backs got nothing going all game long(McGahee 14 for 34, Ogbonnaya 5 for 9). Cleveland gained most of their yards on three runs by a receiver and their quarberback. A reverse by Josh Gordon went for 34 yards and Campbell scrambled twice for 27 yards. Their running backs were shut down.

Miami's Lamar Miller had some success, rushing for 61 yards on 14 carries. But the real problem that day was Miami's quarterback. Tannehill threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns with no picks...

The Ravens running backs were held in check all game long. Rice ran for only 40 yards on 11 carries and Pierce only gained 31 yards on 10 carries. The Ravens rushing total & YPC only look fine because Tyrod Taylor ran for 39 yards on three scrambles late in the game with Joe Flacco on the bench.

My point: The defense wasn't great against the run, but they held the Browns and Ravens in check. Only the Texans & Bills had great success on the ground. The Dolphins had succes running the ball. They didn't run the ball much though (only 21 attempts), because Tannehill was carving up New Englands secondary.

Getting into the game details is interesting, if not necessarily revealing. I looked at the PFR breakdown of the Texans' rushing day.

- 19 of 27 rushes went to the offensive right (LT Brown and LG Smith) toward the defensive left. Chandler Jones started at LDE. Without reviewing game film, it's impossible to know which DT was playing which side on a given play, but it seems to me that Chris Jones most often played RDT when Siliga was on the field. BTW, that was Siliga's first game and he didn't start - came in during Q2, IIRC. Anyway, the Texans gained 95 yards and got 3 TDs in that direction (including Keenum's 5-yd bootleg).
- they ran to the offensive right (defensive left - Nink's usual side) only 3 times for a net of 8 yards (which happened to be Tate's 8-yd TD run).
- they ran up the middle for 19 yards on 5 carries.

The Texans' apparent preference for running left may be due to them perceiving a greater weakness to that side of the Pats' DL, but it's equally possible that they were simply running behind their best run-blockers.

Of Tate's 22 carries, it appears that 6 went for 7+ yds (including a 20-yd bounce-out TD) and the rest went for 0-4 yds.

Again, I'm not sure that there's anything all that revealing here. I'll try to look at the Bills game later.
 
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