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This is very true. Just as RAS doesn't apply to QBs. Skill counts most. That's why it's called a skill position.
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This is very true. Just as RAS doesn't apply to QBs. Skill counts most. That's why it's called a skill position.
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This all time RAS team is pretty underwhelming / mediocre. (article written by the creator of RAS).
NFL All-Time RAS team: Could you compete with just raw athleticism?
What would happen if you put together a team comprised of just the top RAS athletes at every position?www.prideofdetroit.com
It's another tool. Cooper Kupp is a great WR and there was a clue for that in his 10 and 20 yard split times. CBs have a hard time keeping up with his burst off the LOS.
Now they're backing off him and giving him the underneath stuff...still gets open though.
RAS is only meant to be a measure comparing a player's athletic capability to other players at the same position, no more.
DropKickFlutie
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Here’s another example of RAS falling on its face
Mondre Stevenson and Damien Harris both had RAS scores under 6.5. Meanwhile overdrafted Michel had a 8.9. Mondre and Harris are both better RBs than Michel, not to mention much better draft value. RAS is at best an almost meaningless metric and at worst a dangerous tool that fools NFL teams into wrong draft picks.
Mondre Stevenson and Damien Harris both had RAS scores under 6.5. Meanwhile overdrafted Michel had a 8.9. Mondre and Harris are both better RBs than Michel, not to mention much better draft value. RAS is at best an almost meaningless metric and at worst a dangerous tool that fools NFL teams into wrong draft picks.
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Not if you're smart enough to interpret the results correctly and in sync with what you're seeing on tape.
Flagg the Wanderer
Mourning Algernon
Then you should LOVE Campbell. Iowa beat that Wisconsin defense on every measure, with the fewest yards per play allowed in half a decade, and one of only 3 in the last decade to allow less than 4 ypc - the others are Bama, back to back, at the apex of their run. And they tied Iowa's ypc against both years.
Unless you think that the Iowa defense was loaded with NFL talent in other positions, look to their on and off the field leader, their tone setter, and culture king.
Campbell was essentially universally considered OBLB3 behind Sanders and Simpson heading into the combine. He outweighs Simpson by more than 20#. He's 6'5".
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Flagg the Wanderer
Mourning Algernon
This. Like almost any purely quantitative measure, it's meant to confirm or disprove something you think you're seeing on tape, qualitatively. You see a guy who is blowing by people and blowing people up in the sun belt conference, and RAS (or better yet, its compenents) are a way to gauge how likely it is that the player could have performed in the SEC.
And it's more than just historical context, it's within a positional group. Campbell was the 2nd slowest 40 time. Well, yeah, he was running against 225# LBs when he is barely under 250#. Even though they're both LBs, they're almost playing different positions. So how impressed should we be that at that weight, with slower top speed, he has such ridiculous change of direction that he beat all those lighter "speed LBs" by more than a quarter second in the shuttle and a full tenth in the 3-cone? And placed 2nd in both jumps?
But none of it matters without instincts, attitude, discipline, coachability, and a beginner's mind. The combine is a tool. And for pure speed I think it's even less useful - mostly just a tool to exclude folks. Play speed vs timed speed is a real thing. That shows up in some of the combine drills (like the gauntlet) but not the quant metrics.
DropKickFlutie
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Yeah like I said, if you’ve seen the kid play a lot that means something to me (unless you’re somehow related to the McDaniels family - both brothers have zero eye for talent). I have no beef against Campbell, I don’t watch much Iowa ball. Probably could have chosen a different player. My main point is against RAS. The graphs look fancy so it somehow elevates faulty combine scores even more which I hate. RAS is majorly flawed and there is a long list of workout warrior draft busts.
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2 responses here.
I see it not being used to validate tape though. It’s being used to justify taking a D3 nobody guard in the first round with major question marks if he can hold his own against NFL talent. And Strange had a bumpy rookie season, definitely did not prove he was worth a 1st rounder especially when the team 14 months ago had Karras, Mason, and Thuney. And I see them take a nobody Thornton 2nd rounder because he ran a Bethel Johnson 4.28 and had a 9.8 RAS. Totally outsmarting themselves, trying to look so smaht but actually overdrafting and wasting a lot of draft value.
Secondly, how do you reconcile a guy’s fast agility at a combine (Campbell) with 4+ different scouting reports based on game tape that he has trouble shifting quickly or issues with short area burst. The scouting reports make sense since he’s 6’5 trying to play shifty middle linebacker. He’s technically not extra-agile for a middle linebacker overall, he’s agile for a specifically 6’5-height guy at MLB, but overall possibly might have issues with shiftiness as a NFL linebacker. When 2 things totally disagree I will side with the scouting based on actual games and scouting profile. A guy putting up a good RAS in an artificial combine with cones means nothing in the face of actual game performance
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Flagg the Wanderer
Mourning Algernon
Then look at the game performance. He was Big-10 DPOY for a reason.
View: https://youtu.be/q0pqrZD--uc
How do I reconcile that? A couple things: 1st he's cerebral. There will be times when his rules or read is unclear where he will slow down. That should be less the case when film and reads and scheme are his full time job in the NFL. I don't think he will be a standout rookie phenom. He will have longevity and be a slow burn, performance-wise, developing into a feared and respected veteran. He's not LT, he's Cornelius Bennett.
But mostly it comes down to confirmation bias and racism. You see a white LB from Iowa who doesn't have that extra gear in terms of top speed, and in the reams of game tape you have you're going to focus in on the examples that tell you what you already think you know: he's unathletic and slow, and doesn't have what it takes for the next level.
I saw a comment on some tape online that Jack Campbell may have had the most to gain or lose from the combine of any invitee. There's merit to that.
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I don’t disagree with some of the above. But I wouldn’t use combine hype to somehow burn our 1st when there are marquee OTs and CBs on the board. Campbell has multiple things I really like - intangibles, locker room leader, humble, also I’ve been checking out tape and reports, physical, he is excellent at stack and shed (a key for me at ILB), seems to have really good hands in my opinion, and a heads up player. MLB is also a need for me after OT and CB1, alongside FS. He probably won’t be available past round2 now and the Pats need to fix OT and CB1 first.
Flagg the Wanderer
Mourning Algernon
Apart from a few top-5 types, I would only use #14 on one of a handful of OTs and DBs. And I'm more and more of a mind that it's OT only.
I've come around some on Skoronski for the Patriots as well, as he is probably the lowest bust risk of any OT, and we can't afford to miss. My favorite OT in the draft is still probably Dawand Jones.
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We know BB likes to fill roster holes in free agency so BB will want to bring in a FA swing OT or 2. To me that's a given. He'll also want to bring in a FA CB.
Surprising to me that no one has made an issue of Skoronski's marginally short arms since it seemed a big deal 3-4 weeks ago. The thinking is his overall ability makes arm length a moot point for him.
Of 10 major scouting "expert" sites, 6 have him drafted between 5th and 10th overall, 2 have him drafted at 12, 1 at 15 (PFF), and 1 at 28th (SI).
Peter Skoronski Offensive Tackle Northwestern | NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report
Rating: 91.1 Rank: #1 Forty: 5.16 Skoronski is a great all-around offensive lineman with the potential to become a very good starter in the NFL. He has an impressive three years of college ...
www.nfldraftbuzz.com
From what I can determine, at 14 there are 3 OTs the Pats have a chance at who are generally viewed as worthy of 14:
Skoronski (little chance),
Paris Johnson (little chance) and
Broderick Jones (pretty good chance).
14 is generally considered too high to pick Anton Harrison or Dawand Jones.
Who do you think the Pats can get at 14? PFF's mock draft exercise defaults Broderick Jones to the Pats at 14 if you run a mock for another team. I ran a mock for Houston.
Like you, I love Dawand Jones' size and arm length. The advantage he gets from that is apparent. I'm guessing his speed is faster than Trent Brown's since speed rushers don't get around him as often. But he's moved up recently on some boards I see into the late 1st-early 2nd rnd area. PFF still has him in the 49th area overall but his position is seeing movement from some.
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WR Charlie Jones, Purdue, is my new WR target for the Pats from a practical pov after taking other factors into consideration such as higher needs at OT and DB.
He'd be the perfect mid round guy to take over the Slot and he blocks better than Josh Downs (but I also like Downs although at higher draft capital than Jones).
I looked at his games over the last 5-6 days and really liked the skill he has.
He's not my round 1 or 2 fav WR but this kid will cook in our offense and shouldn't cost a high round draft pick.
He'd be the perfect mid round guy to take over the Slot and he blocks better than Josh Downs (but I also like Downs although at higher draft capital than Jones).
I looked at his games over the last 5-6 days and really liked the skill he has.
He's not my round 1 or 2 fav WR but this kid will cook in our offense and shouldn't cost a high round draft pick.
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Flagg the Wanderer
Mourning Algernon
'Tis the season for amazing physical specimens to dazzle the eyes of coaches and GMs across the country by performing largely irrelevant tasks in their underwear.We know BB likes to fill roster holes in free agency so BB will want to bring in a FA swing OT or 2. To me that's a given. He'll also want to bring in a FA CB.
Surprising to me that no one has made an issue of Skoronski's marginally short arms since it seemed a big deal 3-4 weeks ago. The thinking is his overall ability makes arm length a moot point for him.
Of 10 major scouting "expert" sites, 6 have him drafted between 5th and 10th overall, 2 have him drafted at 12, 1 at 15 (PFF), and 1 at 28th (SI).
Peter Skoronski Offensive Tackle Northwestern | NFL Draft Profile & Scouting Report
Rating: 91.1 Rank: #1 Forty: 5.16 Skoronski is a great all-around offensive lineman with the potential to become a very good starter in the NFL. He has an impressive three years of college ...
From what I can determine, at 14 there are 3 OTs the Pats have a chance at who are generally viewed as worthy of 14:
Skoronski (little chance),
Paris Johnson (little chance) and
Broderick Jones (pretty good chance).
That is to say, I expect Johnson & Jones to overtake Skoronski, and maybe some other specimen type to push him as well. OL is an unsexy pick, but there are far sexier picks at the position.
There are X teams that need an OT or would prioritize it high enough to spend a 1st round pick. Of those, Y are of the school of thought that disqualifies Skoronski because of the (checks weigh-in results) 3/4" his arms fell short of the benchmark by. X-Y is going to be a pretty small number, and only a subset of those will be in the range to go get him. One team that could conceivably want and need him, and is in the right position is the Jets, but I'll exclude them immediately because they just tried to do the "OT talent but arms a touch too short" thing with AVT...who is now their starting guard.
Harrison is a candidate to push if he looks good in underwear. Personally, I don't see it with him at all. I don't want any part of him.
After everyone sees him move compared directly to other draftable OL, I expect Broderick Jones to creep up in the 1st. I don't think he or Johnson will be there. I do think the less athletic Skoronski will be there. If he's not, I want a trade down to add pick(s) in the 25-70 range. I could be convinced to give late or future picks to make that happen.
I don't know who will be there at 14. He'll, Bryce Young (height) and/or Jalen Carter (legal) could be there, and a week ago saying that either could possibly fall out of the top 5 would sacrifice all an analyst's credibility.
I can't decide what is going to happen with the top 3 CBs. There's so much depth that the top guys may slide because the tradeoff of missing the top guys at a position that is less deep is so brutal. That may cause one of them to fall to 14. Can we turn down a near-lockdown CB who also solves our current problem with size in the DBackfield if he falls to us? Maybe, if DMac is returning and Jon Jones is signed.
My ideal draft, I think, is to trade down to the 25 range and get Dawand Jones. I think he can dominate at RT, and I actually think he can play LT in the NFL as well, but probably not right away. That's okay, because Trent Brown is there, solid enough, and price effective. Adding a late 2nd, then maybe moving up in the second for another pick in the 35-45 range. I like Steen and Wright more than most at OT. I could see a world where Bill took Porter/Witherspoon at 14, someone totally unexpected at 46, and Steen in the 3rd.
There are other weird possibilities, like Bryce Young falling off a cliff because of his height, and suddenly a QB needy team is willing to pay a ton to trade up as he falls out of the first dozen picks. While I personally favor trading future picks to add picks on day 2 of this draft if necessary, Bill is still an economist at heart, and I don't see him turning down a Godfather offer of future value, either.
I don't see way to pick CB at 14 and still land an OT we don't have significant questions about, so I favor OT at 14 if one of the top 3 are there, and doing what we need to do to get Dawand Jones + some draft capital if they aren't. I do think we can get a really valuable CB later - maybe even much later - in the draft.
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small quick slot WRs with route running and good catching hands should be plentiful in mid to later rounds. The physically scarce talented players are large OTs and elite CB1’s
Flagg the Wanderer
Mourning Algernon
The only player in this category I could see taking before the end of Rd 2 is Gibbs.