The NFL 2023 Draft

Wynn's short arms weren't the cause of his poor play this year, though.
His best trait has always been his athleticism, foot speed and movement skills.
Study him this year and his foot speed was almost twice as slow as what it had been. The guy reminded me of that slow footed sloth for the Jets 10 years ago, Vlad Ducasse.
I'd love to know his playing weight this year.
Honestly, I don’t think he lost foot speed. He lost intensity and effort level.

He just wasn’t trying that hard.

And when your head is gone, everything else goes with it, including pregame preparation.

Of course, it didn’t help that he had the coaching staff he did. I have to give him that as I do Mac Jones.

Mac Jones was clearly trying.
 
Here are the QBs Richardson's RAS score compares with. 3 had good careers. 1 got injured and was never the same. 1 retired early after injury.

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Takeaways from the Combine and the players who fit well with the Pats

 
Here are the QBs Richardson's RAS score compares with. 3 had good careers. 1 got injured and was never the same. 1 retired early after injury.

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As agreed before RAS is worthless at skill positions. QB probably being the most obvious example.
 
Analytics for OTs, anyone?

Among the top-20 highest-rated OTs in pressure efficiency (minimum 400 opportunities):
1. The top 12, who tested, recorded an elite RAS.
2. The top 8 OT had an arm length of 34 in.
3. The top 7 of 8 who tested, have elite 40-yard, 20-yard + 10-yard marks.
(pff & MathBomb)

What do I get from this chart of the top-20 highest-rated OTs in pressure efficiency (minimum 400 opportunities) below?
Former Patriots Jermaine Eluemunor is a FA, a top 20 OT in pass blocking efficiency and was paid $1M by the Raiders last year. He's continued to improve.
He was better than either of our starters last year.
He could be a good depth signing who would compete to start.

PFF rankings:
21. Eluemunor - 76 pass blocking, 75.7 run blocking
43. Trent Brown - 76 Pass blocking, 59.5 run blocking
72. Isaiah Wynn - 53 pass blocking, 53 run blocking
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Oops. Wrong thread but I'll leave it here anyway.
 
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We all know Combine drills are not evidence of anyone's ability to play football which is what teams actually care about. While true, there is a rather meaningful correlation between one’s overall athleticism [measured used Kent Lee Platte’s (@MathBomb on Twitter) relative athletic score calculation often using combine scores] and the approximate value (a measure of overall play quality) a player generates during their rookie contract. An 11 year study shows RAS is meaningful for most defensive positions and less for another.

RAS is most meaningful for these positions, which includes our needs at FS and CB:

SS - R = 0.19
DE/EDGE, R = 0.17
CB, R = 0.13
FS, R = 0.12
LB, R = 0.12

RAS is not as meaningful for another:
DT = 0.02

R is Pearson's R, a correlation estimating the degree to which a score on ‘Variable Y’ trends up or down depending on one’s score on ‘Variable X.’ In this case, we see positive relationships between RAS and approximate value for most defensive positions, implying better players tend to be more athletic (as we might expect), DT being the exception.

 
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The NFL combine is officially over as day four came to a close. The offensive linemen and running backs put on quite a show in Indianapolis. Let’s take a look at the biggest winners and losers of the final day of the Combine.

Winners

Bijan Robinson


Running backs have been devalued in the NFL over the past few seasons. But Robinson is almost too good to pass on. The Texas superstar put on a show at the combine. The 5’ 11”, 215 pound back jumped a 37” vertical along with a 10’ 4” broad jump. He followed that up with a 4.46 40-yard dash. Robinson proved that he’s an elite athlete and the tape certainly doesn’t lie.

Darnell Wright

The first round buzz following Wright amplified following his performance at the combine. Even with sub 34” arms, Wright measured in at 6’ 5”, 333 pounds. The big man then ran an impressive 5.01 second 40, including a 1.81 10-yard split. While he tested like an elite athlete, Wright impressed most during the drills. His footwork was impeccable and Wright looked incredibly fluid. He solidified himself as a first-round player.

Blake Freeland

Need an athletic tackle? How about the most athletic tackle in the entire class? Look no further than BYU’s Blake Freeland. At 6’ 7”, 302 pounds, Freeland posted an freakis 4.98 40-yard dash, with a 1.68 first 10. He added a 37” vertical, 10’ broad jump and an elite 7.46 second three-cone. While he isn’t a first-round prospect, Freeland’s combine may have propelled him into mid-day two territory.

Cody Mauch

Everyone wants someone like Mauch on their team. A big, burly man with lucious long hair and two missing teeth, Mauch is a the epitome of a football player. While he may not play tackle at the next level with 32 ⅛ “ arms, but his 1.78 10-yard split and 5.09 second 40-yard dash shows just how fluid and athletic the North Dakota State product is. He also posted elite shuttle and three cone times to end an fantastic combine. Mauch’s stock has never been higher.

Jon Gaines II

You cannot talk about winners without mentioning Gaines. The UCLA guard had the highest Relative Athletic Score from the position. Slightly undersized at 6’ 4”, 303 pounds, but he makes up for it with speed and athleticism. A 5.01 40, a 1.73 10-yard split, a 4.45 shuttle and 7.31 three-cone. All elite times. Add in a 36” vert and 9.5’ broad jump and you have one of the most athletic guards in recent history. Gaines made himself quite a bit of money on Sunday.


Losers

Jarrett Patterson


Patterson had a rough day all around. From his sub 32” arms to his poor agility testing, Patterson struggled at the combine. For a man who needed a big performance after a rough outing at the Senior Bowl, Patterson failed to help himself. He will almost surely be a day three pick come April.

John Michael Schmitz

Some consider Schmitz the top center in the 2023 draft class, but the Gopher struggled to live up to the hype. For a lateral, zone-scheme center, Schmitz’s 1.85 second 10-yard split was worse than many expected. With only average explosive testing in the vert and broad jump, and average height at 6’3”, Schmitz’s stock may have taken a bit of a hit.
 
We all know Combine drills are not evidence of anyone's ability to play football which is what teams actually care about. While true, there is a rather meaningful correlation between one’s overall athleticism [measured used Kent Lee Platte’s (@MathBomb on Twitter) relative athletic score calculation often using combine scores] and the approximate value (a measure of overall play quality) a player generates during their rookie contract. An 11 year study shows RAS is meaningful for most defensive positions and less for another.

RAS is most meaningful for these positions, which includes our needs at FS and CB:

SS - R = 0.19
DE/EDGE, R = 0.17
CB, R = 0.13
FS, R = 0.12
LB, R = 0.12

RAS is not as meaningful for others:
DT = 0.02

R is Pearson's R, a correlation estimating the degree to which a score on ‘Variable Y’ trends up or down depending on one’s score on ‘Variable X.’ In this case, we see positive relationships between RAS and approximate value for most defensive positions, implying better players tend to be more athletic (as we might expect), DT being the exception.


Here’s the thing

Isn’t an R of 0.19 or 0.17 still super LOW? Very little correlation.

It is not the main factor in which player is going to be good or not.

RAS is going to fool a lot of teams and front office dummies who don’t know math or statistics.

No surprise that the above link was from a Jets article
 
Here’s the thing

Isn’t an R of 0.19 or 0.17 still super LOW? Very little correlation.

It is not the main factor in which player is going to be good or not.

RAS is going to fool a lot of teams and front office dummies who don’t know math or statistics.

No surprise that the above link was from a Jets article

Yes it is low which is why I posted the link to the site so people can read about it. I don't think any GMs will be fooled.
 
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I like what I saw in Joe Tippmann, Center out of Wisconsin at 6'6" 313Lbs He is a guy who would need a season to develop but would be a solid C/G and at that size has some possibilities to learn the OT position..
 
He's solid and capable from what I've seen of him. I'm no expert by any means but top OT talk seems a stretch to me even if he did dominate against Bama's Will Anderson.
RT for first 2 years at Tenn. He switched to LT in '22 and had by far his best year.
I'd welcome him on the Pats but he may not be a plug and play guy right away.


View: https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/status/1633610194403102720
 
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High drop rates frequently eliminate a receiver from BB's draft board.

WRs in this class with high drop rates

Trey Palmer (13.8%)
Rakim Jarrett (11.8%)
Kayshon Boutte (11.0%)
Zay Flowers (10.8%)
Quentin Johnston (10.2%)
Tyler Scott (10.2%)


• Marvin Mims: 7.9%
• Rashee Rice: 7.8%
• Jalin Hyatt: 6.7%
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 4.8% (2021)
• Jordan Addison: 3.1%
• Josh Downs: 2%

TEs

Luke Musgrave (16.1%)
Will Mallory (11.5%)
Cameron Latu (11.1%)
Tucker Kraft (10.8%)
Darnell Washington (10.0%)
 
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He's solid and capable from what I've seen of him. I'm no expert by any means but top OT talk seems a stretch to me even if he did dominate against Bama's Will Anderson.
RT for first 2 years at Tenn. He switched to LT in '22 and had by far his best year.
I'd welcome him on the Pats but he may not be a plug and play guy right away.


View: https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/status/1633610194403102720


Who are the best pass blockers in the draft? Groh appropriately noted they need to fix pass blocking and keep Mac upright
 
High drop rates frequently eliminate a receiver from BB's draft board.

WRs in this class with high drop rates

Trey Palmer (13.8%)
Rakim Jarrett (11.8%)
Kayshon Boutte (11.0%)
Zay Flowers (10.8%)
Quentin Johnston (10.2%)
Tyler Scott (10.2%)
Quentin Johnston: 8.5%

• Marvin Mims: 7.9%
• Rashee Rice: 7.8%
• Jalin Hyatt: 6.7%
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 4.8% (2021)
• Zay Flowers: 4.4%
• Jordan Addison: 3.1%
• Josh Downs: 2%

TEs

Luke Musgrave (16.1%)
Will Mallory (11.5%)
Cameron Latu (11.1%)
Tucker Kraft (10.8%)
Darnell Washington (10.0%)

I think you listed Zay twice

Drop rate is meaningful. It’s why I didn’t like the Parker trade. One can make excuses but end of the day drop rate and catch rate are key metrics, which is why Bourne and Meyers were the Patriots best receivers for the Pats the last two seasons despite being underused.

Based on this data that rules out all the TEs and amongst WRs only Addison, Downs, JSN look decent to draft
 
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