2012 draft picks: A pot of gold, or a lump of coal?

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Box_O_Rocks said:
Mayo asked for this thread, here's an article which seems to reason this out the same way I've been thinking, but has gone into more depth and breadth on the topic.

2012 draft picks: A pot of gold, or a lump of coal?
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So this guy expects to move down from 16 to 25 and get a 1st rounder (and a 3rd!) for that? No matter how much he's trying to fluff up the apocalyptic chance of no draft next year, this isn't going to be making sense for any GM.
 
ZoisKing said:
So this guy expects to move down from 16 to 25 and get a 1st rounder (and a 3rd!) for that? No matter how much he's trying to fluff up the apocalyptic chance of no draft next year, this isn't going to be making sense for any GM.
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We'll know more when Judge Nelson makes her ruling this coming week. Hopefully, it's before the draft.
 
If this admittedly far-fetched fantasy scenario did occur and this is the last year for the NFL draft, then it would definitely be pertinent to the way the Patriots approached this draft.

For one thing, we wouldn't have to burn a pick to land the usual developmental QB, because we can just go out and sign Andrew Luck next year as the heir apparent.

;)

I'm not for one second buying this guy's ideas. The Pats will, in all likelihood, want to approach 2011 the same way they did during the last two very successful drafts by targeting certain guys and shrewdly rolling picks towards next year, where all we currently have is a single pick in rounds 1 thru 5.

Hey. Come to think of it.......maybe this guy is right and we are already unloading our picks.

:sulk:

In all seriousness, the fact that we are quite thin in picks next year should let everybody know that we won't be sitting pat and drafting 6 guys in the first 3. Expect a number of trades down for next year and you won't be disappointed. Actually, you probably will be, but get ready anyways.
 
Hawg73 said:
In all seriousness, the fact that we are quite thin in picks next year should let everybody know that we won't be sitting pat and drafting 6 guys in the first 3. Expect a number of trades down for next year and you won't be disappointed. Actually, you probably will be, but get ready anyways.
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Jonathan Kraft has already said one of the goals of this draft is to gain picks for 2012 and possibly 2013. Judge Nelson will play a role here.
 
I can see the very lack of concensus on how to value future picks making trades difficult. The draft is a real time process, and one of the things that always seems to shake out is that some teams are much better at dealing with that than others. Trades need to be agreed on relatively quickly. #33 will be an exception, since the Pats will have all night to entertain offers, but for other picks time will be a key factor.

Let's assume that BB decides that he wants a 1 round premium on trading into 2012. So instead of valuaing a 2012 1st like a 2011 2nd, he values it as a 2011 3rd because of the uncertainty. Lets assume that San Francisco wants to trade up to 28 to take a QB. They offer their 2012 1st and 2011 3rd round pick (76), and BB wants their 2011 2nd (45). Not likely to see a trade happen under these circumstances. That's a bit of an extreme example, but not that far off of some trades that have been proposed.
 
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