Steve-o said:
Seymour's averaging about 5 sacks per season, so you're saying he could quintuple his sack output?
The stat (yes, I will be fully disappointed if someone doesn't jump all over this one) I find interesting is Freeney's 23 career forced fumbles. In one more season, Seymour has 3.
Seymour's averaging 3.43 tackles per game, Freeney's at 2.46.
Draw what you will from the stats, but the fumbles impresses me the most. Forcing a fumble is one of the most instantaneous game changing events a DE can create. And Dwight's doing alright in that category.
What you're really debating here is the merits of the 4-3 employed by the Colts versus the 3-4 employed by the Pats. Put Seymour in a 4-3 system and allow him to move between tackle and end to maximize his effectiveness on the pass rush (much like the Colts do by keeping Freeney on the QB's blindside), and I think Seymour would average 10-15 sacks a year, probably 60-70 tackles, and a lot more forced fumbles coming off of penetration and sacks (which is where I would bet Freeney gets his).
The Colts D is a gambling D, trying to get off the field as soon as possible by getting turnovers: they are not built to survive long, sustained drives. This will allow for big stats by the D-linemen, but also big stats often for the opposing offense if these turnovers elude the Colts, or heaven-forbid the Colts offense be slowed down enough for an opposing team to work its running game. The Pats D is based upon the bend-but-don't break philosophy of making the opposing offense march down the field in small chunks at a time through disciplined play. The D-linemen are there to occupy blockers so that the LBs can garner the big stats.
Seymour could adjust his game and play effectively in the 4-3 quickly. Freeney would be forced into the OLB role within the Pats system, and be forced to play the pass on occasion...something he
might be able to do with time and practice, but I'm just not so sure of.
Freeney's style of play matches the Colts' philosophy perfectly and hence, he is probably more valuable to that team than 80% of the rest of the teams in the NFL. That's also what makes him less valuable than Seymour as far as $$$ is concerned. Seymour would gather interest from the other 31 teams if he were to become a free agent. Leading to: Freeney is not worth Seymour-like money, but he's still worth quite a bit.
But heck, I still hope either Polian pays him like a QB, or he holds out.