Looking at the Patriots - 2020

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The strength of schedule is tough for the entire AFC East. Should help the Pats since the JETE, Dolphins and Bills also have it tough.


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chevss454 said:
Welker was 185 and Edelman is 200. Muscle. Big diff from 170 in my mind, anyway.
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Ever reference I’ve seen lists Hastings at 174, so not sure where you’re pulling 170 from.

Count me as one who feels 10 LBs of muscle for a 23-24 yr old who’s full time occupation is pro sport is not a difficult accomplishment between his signing and TC.
 
chevss454 said:
I don't bc I'm expecting the 2nd yr guys to take a leap.
PS maybe...probably. But I'm concerned about his small size, injuries, etc.
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There is another small guy we picked up in FA as well. Kid is like 5'5, I am wondering about the receivers, they also picked up that kid that everyone is going crazy about Jeff Tomas out of Miami. Going to be tough for some others to make the team.
 
Ever since 2002, I think the schedule is pretty fair to determine each division winner, as they all play the same AFC and NFC division.
 
spacecrime said:
Ever since 2002, I think the schedule is pretty fair to determine each division winner, as they all play the same AFC and NFC division.
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Yeah people want to change this every year and you always hear the "patriots win because their division sucks" But I can say very certain that nobody ever won the afc east with 7 wins like other divisions.
 
Film was good but the most interesting part to me was comparing Stidham's game with Garappolo, not Brady:

The one advantage that the Pats might have with Stidham at quarterback over Brady is that, as the Niners do with Garoppolo, they can now move the pocket thanks to Stidham’s athleticism.

By rolling Stidham out, they’ll present their first-year starter with easier half-field reads while giving their YAC machines like Keene, N’Keal Harry, or Julian Edelman space to run.

The Niners incorporate screens all the time in their offense for Kittle and Juszczyk, and it all builds off of San Francisco’s rushing attack.

New England only threw a screen pass to their tight ends once all last season, according to Sports Info Solutions. But with Keene in the mix, we’ll hopefully see more of an effort to incorporate screens in 2020.
 
Since the Pats' 1st SB win...
Not bad at all. Spoiled. Perspective. 4 teams, 12 Championships. :peace:



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On using Keene...


I wouldn’t count on the Patriots dusting off their Gronkowski and Hernandez gameplans for next season. Keene doesn’t fit in a box … he could create a new one and help take the Patriots offense in a different direction. What does Keene bring to the table and why might that cause the Patriots to debut a new part of their offense this fall?
Well, for starters, he can play just about every skill position besides quarterback and deep-threat wide receiver, and he did at Virginia Tech. In one game, you could see Keene line up at tight end, h-back, fullback, tailback (with a carry) and slot receiver. And that offense isn’t all that creative, or good.
He’s a bit like Hernandez in that regard, except he trended more toward the receiver side of things (even though he did play running back in a Patriots game) — a position he lobbied to move to before the end of his NFL career.
Keene is versatile but trends to the running back/fullback side of things (he was a running back in high school).
How could that be valuable to the Patriots?
Everything with offense is dictated by personnel matchups. With Hernandez the debate for defensive coordinators was how do you defend him? Do you put another linebacker on the field? He’s too fast for them. What about a cornerback? He’s bigger and stronger.
But in the past decade, NFL defenses have trended smaller and have the types of players to defend players like Hernandez. Doesn’t mean they can’t be successful, just that defenses have up their odds.
But if you have a player like Keene, who can morph from a fullback to a tight end in the blink of an eye, how will defensive coordinators defend that? Likely they will match up with a linebacker — at a time when there are fewer traditional linebackers on a roster (the Patriots had two before the draft) which means a base defense. Keene should be faster than a linebacker if he goes out for a pass. If they match with a safety then … boom, Keene should be able to block them and the power running game has a mismatch against an undersized defense.
This is not an original thought, but the rest has been slow adopting. Kyle Shanahan has made Kyle Juszczyk a matchup player in his offense.
“I feel like I’m just one of Kyle’s chess pieces that he gets to move around and dictate how the defense lines up,” said Juszczyk, a four-time Pro Bowl selection. “We don’t just move around and do all those motions before the snap just because it looks good. There’s always a reason behind it. We’re always trying to get the defense set on a certain position so that we feel like we can take advantage.”
“We were pumped to get Juice when we got him,” Shanahan said. “Personally, I like having a fullback because I feel like that’s the only way you can dictate your terms. When you have a fullback in the game, if you really want to run the ball, you can run the ball regardless of what the defense is doing.”
I know what you’re thinking: What’s the big deal, the Patriots have always used a fullback … duh, they had James Develin and signed Dan Vitale in the offseason.
Vitale and now Keene are complete departures from what the Patriots had in Develin. They are versatile athletes, not sledgehammers.
What’s interesting is that the Packers took a similar player, Josiah Deguara, right before the Patriots traded a boatload to land Keene. Packers coach Matt LeFleur is a Shanahan disciple. Some NFL sources think the Patriots were actually targeting Deguara in that round but the Packers beat them to the punch. The Patriots paying a king’s ransom for Keene sent the signal to other NFL executives that they missed on their guy and had to overpay to make sure they got the only other player who could do the FB/TE job.
“They are very similar players with their versatility,” said one NFL exec. “Deguara is built lower to the ground (Deguara is 6-1, Keene 6-4 … Juszczyk is 6-1 by the way) and would make more sense as a fullback. But Keene can do it. Watch, it will work out better for them with the taller guy.”
One other aspect of this, related to Shanahan: He left out the biggest advantage of playing with a more athletic fullback — the passing game, especially for more inexperienced quarterbacks. For an offensive playcaller and a QB, base defenses are more predictable. And an athletic fullback presents a great mismatch in the passing game.
These are the 21 personnel — two running backs, one tight end, two receivers — success rates last season, dug out by our friend Aaron Schatz at FootballOutsiders.com. They show how teams are more successful throwing the ball out of 21 than out of 12 or 11 personnel:
Personnel groupingSuccess rateAvg. yards per play 11 pass/scramble446.3 11 run/sneak424.5 12 pass/scramble486.8 12 run/sneak404.1 21 pass/scramble506.9 21 run/sneak424.6 It’s a mismatch game on offense. The Patriots appear to be looking to find a new way to do that, and Keene is the way for them to get there.
SCOUTING REPORT
Positives

  • Just an infectious football player through and through. There’s nothing he won’t do for his football team. Plays until after the whistle. Plays just about every position on offense and loves it.
  • Good all-around, natural athlete. Has a little wiggle in his game through and he should get some more quickness and burst through an NFL strength and nutrition program. Don’t think he’s hit his ceiling yet.
  • Animal in the blocking game: there isn’t any assignment he won’t hit head on and he can block in different ways and from different positions.
  • Natural pass catcher with soft hands. Gets up the field quickly and can make players miss.
  • Should contribute immensely on special teams as well.
Negatives

  • Comes from an average spread style offense so there will be an on-ramp to a pro style.
  • Not a great athlete for the position, which likely led to his draft position, but a fairly good one for the position. He better get lined up on linebackers because he’s not going to run away from many NFL safeties at this point.
  • Blocking is inconsistent. Sometimes it’s excellent, other times he whiffs and ends up on the group. Most of his struggles comes from when his pads get over his toes. Just needs to block flat-footed a bit more. Can easily be coached up.
  • Is being good at everything but a master of none good enough in the NFL?
From Bedard
 
Vegas has the Pats favored in 8 games this season but some of these spreads are just nuts, imo.



Here are the opening odds, with the Patriots favored in bold:
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots -6
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks -4
Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots -6
New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs -8½
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots -5
San Francisco 49ers @ New England Patriots +2
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills -3
New England Patriots @ New York Jets +1½
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots +2½
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans -1½
Arizona Cardinals @ New England Patriots -5½
New England Patriots @ Los Angeles Chargers pk
New England Patriots @ Los Angeles Rams -3
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins +2½
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots -2
New York Jets @ New England Patriots -7


A couple of things that stand out:

  • Have no idea how the Patriots are six-point favorites in any game with Stidham/Hoyer as the starting quarterback, especially in the opener against the Dolphins and Week 3 against the Raiders. Way too early for that stuff. Take the visitors.
  • Last season with Brady, after the first Jets game got them to 3-0, the Patriots won by seven or fewer points in four games, and lost five (including the playoffs). So that means the Patriots didn’t cover seven points in nine of the final 14 games. That was with Brady.
  • Seahawks are only favored over the Patriots by one point on a neutral field (three automatic points for being home)?
  • Chiefs are only 3.5 points better than the Patriots? The 49ers are considered five points better, the Ravens 5.5.
  • Vegas sees the Patriots and Bills as pretty much even.
  • Vegas sees the Patriots as being 2.5 points better than the Texans.
  • Jets are considered the worst team in the division. Bedard.
 
chevss454 said:
Vegas has the Pats favored in 8 games this season but some of these spreads are just nuts, imo.



Here are the opening odds, with the Patriots favored in bold:
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots -6
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks -4
Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots -6
New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs -8½
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots -5
San Francisco 49ers @ New England Patriots +2
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills -3
New England Patriots @ New York Jets +1½
Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots +2½
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans -1½
Arizona Cardinals @ New England Patriots -5½
New England Patriots @ Los Angeles Chargers pk
New England Patriots @ Los Angeles Rams -3
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins +2½
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots -2
New York Jets @ New England Patriots -7


A couple of things that stand out:

  • Have no idea how the Patriots are six-point favorites in any game with Stidham/Hoyer as the starting quarterback, especially in the opener against the Dolphins and Week 3 against the Raiders. Way too early for that stuff. Take the visitors.
  • Last season with Brady, after the first Jets game got them to 3-0, the Patriots won by seven or fewer points in four games, and lost five (including the playoffs). So that means the Patriots didn’t cover seven points in nine of the final 14 games. That was with Brady.
  • Seahawks are only favored over the Patriots by one point on a neutral field (three automatic points for being home)?
  • Chiefs are only 3.5 points better than the Patriots? The 49ers are considered five points better, the Ravens 5.5.
  • Vegas sees the Patriots and Bills as pretty much even.
  • Vegas sees the Patriots as being 2.5 points better than the Texans.
  • Jets are considered the worst team in the division. Bedard.
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I find that before the season starts lines are usually pretty close no matter what. If you see one you like this would be the time to bet. The lines change pretty drastic as the season goes along. Injuries, etc. I mean honestly I think the bills and pats are even.
 
Do you think it's true that the Pat's preferred Josiah Deguara?


chevss454 said:
On using Keene...


I wouldn’t count on the Patriots dusting off their Gronkowski and Hernandez gameplans for next season. Keene doesn’t fit in a box … he could create a new one and help take the Patriots offense in a different direction. What does Keene bring to the table and why might that cause the Patriots to debut a new part of their offense this fall?
Well, for starters, he can play just about every skill position besides quarterback and deep-threat wide receiver, and he did at Virginia Tech. In one game, you could see Keene line up at tight end, h-back, fullback, tailback (with a carry) and slot receiver. And that offense isn’t all that creative, or good.
He’s a bit like Hernandez in that regard, except he trended more toward the receiver side of things (even though he did play running back in a Patriots game) — a position he lobbied to move to before the end of his NFL career.
Keene is versatile but trends to the running back/fullback side of things (he was a running back in high school).
How could that be valuable to the Patriots?
Everything with offense is dictated by personnel matchups. With Hernandez the debate for defensive coordinators was how do you defend him? Do you put another linebacker on the field? He’s too fast for them. What about a cornerback? He’s bigger and stronger.
But in the past decade, NFL defenses have trended smaller and have the types of players to defend players like Hernandez. Doesn’t mean they can’t be successful, just that defenses have up their odds.
But if you have a player like Keene, who can morph from a fullback to a tight end in the blink of an eye, how will defensive coordinators defend that? Likely they will match up with a linebacker — at a time when there are fewer traditional linebackers on a roster (the Patriots had two before the draft) which means a base defense. Keene should be faster than a linebacker if he goes out for a pass. If they match with a safety then … boom, Keene should be able to block them and the power running game has a mismatch against an undersized defense.
This is not an original thought, but the rest has been slow adopting. Kyle Shanahan has made Kyle Juszczyk a matchup player in his offense.
“I feel like I’m just one of Kyle’s chess pieces that he gets to move around and dictate how the defense lines up,” said Juszczyk, a four-time Pro Bowl selection. “We don’t just move around and do all those motions before the snap just because it looks good. There’s always a reason behind it. We’re always trying to get the defense set on a certain position so that we feel like we can take advantage.”
“We were pumped to get Juice when we got him,” Shanahan said. “Personally, I like having a fullback because I feel like that’s the only way you can dictate your terms. When you have a fullback in the game, if you really want to run the ball, you can run the ball regardless of what the defense is doing.”
I know what you’re thinking: What’s the big deal, the Patriots have always used a fullback … duh, they had James Develin and signed Dan Vitale in the offseason.
Vitale and now Keene are complete departures from what the Patriots had in Develin. They are versatile athletes, not sledgehammers.
What’s interesting is that the Packers took a similar player, Josiah Deguara, right before the Patriots traded a boatload to land Keene. Packers coach Matt LeFleur is a Shanahan disciple. Some NFL sources think the Patriots were actually targeting Deguara in that round but the Packers beat them to the punch. The Patriots paying a king’s ransom for Keene sent the signal to other NFL executives that they missed on their guy and had to overpay to make sure they got the only other player who could do the FB/TE job.
“They are very similar players with their versatility,” said one NFL exec. “Deguara is built lower to the ground (Deguara is 6-1, Keene 6-4 … Juszczyk is 6-1 by the way) and would make more sense as a fullback. But Keene can do it. Watch, it will work out better for them with the taller guy.”
One other aspect of this, related to Shanahan: He left out the biggest advantage of playing with a more athletic fullback — the passing game, especially for more inexperienced quarterbacks. For an offensive playcaller and a QB, base defenses are more predictable. And an athletic fullback presents a great mismatch in the passing game.
These are the 21 personnel — two running backs, one tight end, two receivers — success rates last season, dug out by our friend Aaron Schatz at FootballOutsiders.com. They show how teams are more successful throwing the ball out of 21 than out of 12 or 11 personnel:
Personnel groupingSuccess rateAvg. yards per play 11 pass/scramble446.3 11 run/sneak424.5 12 pass/scramble486.8 12 run/sneak404.1 21 pass/scramble506.9 21 run/sneak424.6 It’s a mismatch game on offense. The Patriots appear to be looking to find a new way to do that, and Keene is the way for them to get there.
SCOUTING REPORT
Positives

  • Just an infectious football player through and through. There’s nothing he won’t do for his football team. Plays until after the whistle. Plays just about every position on offense and loves it.
  • Good all-around, natural athlete. Has a little wiggle in his game through and he should get some more quickness and burst through an NFL strength and nutrition program. Don’t think he’s hit his ceiling yet.
  • Animal in the blocking game: there isn’t any assignment he won’t hit head on and he can block in different ways and from different positions.
  • Natural pass catcher with soft hands. Gets up the field quickly and can make players miss.
  • Should contribute immensely on special teams as well.
Negatives

  • Comes from an average spread style offense so there will be an on-ramp to a pro style.
  • Not a great athlete for the position, which likely led to his draft position, but a fairly good one for the position. He better get lined up on linebackers because he’s not going to run away from many NFL safeties at this point.
  • Blocking is inconsistent. Sometimes it’s excellent, other times he whiffs and ends up on the group. Most of his struggles comes from when his pads get over his toes. Just needs to block flat-footed a bit more. Can easily be coached up.
  • Is being good at everything but a master of none good enough in the NFL?
From Bedard
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chevss454 said:
I don't have any idea but Deguara was 3rd on my list of TEs for the Pats.
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Like most of us, I really liked Trautman. I also liked Keene. I discounted Degura because he was light and short (6'2", 241#) and just didn't seem like a Pats TE to me. Closest successful Pats TE I can think of is Aaron Hernandez. Same height but 10# heavier.

Asiasi was not on my radar at all. He's another guy, like Dugger and Uche, that I didn't consider but after reading about them, they seem perfect for theteam.
 
Amazing stats from PFF. I hope teams continue to throw at him.


PFF@PFF
J.C. Jackson when targeted 20+ yards downfield in coverage 2018-2019

Interceptions: 6
Receptions allowed: 3
 
Dwight Schrute said:
Secondary is tits.

Can’t throw to the other side with Gillie on lockdown.
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JMc has come through nicely as well.
================

Hooray! Glad to know Chung is healthy!

Chung and the Patriots have agreed to a two-year extension that runs through the 2023 season, sources told Field Yates of ESPN. The Oregon Ducks product will receive a reported signing bonus of $3 million as part of the pact, and can earn up to $12.8 million over the next four years.
But the short-term plan is in focus.
New England now carries the financial flexibility to get fellow safety Kyle Dugger, selected No. 37 overall in April, under contract. The first-team All-American and Cliff Harris Award winner out of Lenoir-Rhyne began the week as the last unsigned member of the Patriots’ 2020 draft class.
 
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