Looking At The Pats - 2021

chevss454

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With cap space but a lot of FAs, we wonder what BB has planned for 2021.
Here's an article by PFF that details which teams should fare well and which teams are looking a steep slide.
I believe this next year we'll see some expensive veteran leadership leave the team. DMac and Thuney head the list. I've also heard High and Cannon are considering retirement.


First things first, let’s see which teams will be best suited to retain their impending free agents (if they want to). We’re operating under the assumption that the 2021 salary cap will be the $175 million floor set by the NFLPA and NFL. While the two sides have discussed salary cap smoothing mechanisms to spread the cost over the next several seasons, the odds are that the final number will still be a much larger constraint on spending than it has been in at least a decade. The below chart will not exactly inspire confidence in free agents and their representatives, but hey, there’s no state income tax in Jacksonville, Florida.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are the only team in the NFL that currently projects to have more cap space than the sum of their pending free agent values. Jacksonville conducted a fire sale before the season that saw A.J. Bouye, Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue all get moved to new teams, which had the effect of both clearing cap space and reducing the value of their pending free agents.

Cap space PFF.png

The New York Jets followed a similar path, acquiring multiple first-round picks from the Seattle Seahawks for safety Jamal Adams shortly before the season. The free safety they drafted in the second round in 2017 to play opposite Adams, Marcus Maye, could end up commanding a sizable extension from the Jets this offseason in his own right.

Both teams fully embraced the reality of the 2020 season and understood that in this year, even more so than others, scrapping and clawing to five wins was pointless. Their extreme frugality could provide an advantage for years to come.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the front offices of the Chicago Bears, New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles have their work cut out for them this offseason.
The Baltimore Ravens, in particular, have two edge rushers playing on franchise tags in Matthew Judon and newly acquired Yannick Ngakouee. However, they’ve also received valuable contributions from players like Jimmy Smith, Derek Wolfe, Tyus Bowser and Jihad Ward, among others. Baltimore loaded up on defense — trading for Calais Campbell even before the aforementioned Ngakoue — but there will be significant turnover after the season.

With Lamar Jackson’s rookie contract window coming to a close after next season, Baltimore poured resources into their defense — in particular, a defensive front that blitzes at a higher rate than anyone in the league.

Teams like the Ravens, Tampa Bay and New Orleans are facing significant turnover both with higher-level players as well as rotational or depth pieces. With a potential drop in the salary cap, it may be tough to avoid a slow start on the defensive side of the ball in 2021.
 
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chevss454

chevss454

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Current cap space projected for next year is $69M (with a $175M cap) which includes the rollover.
Possible losses to the top 51:
DMac, Cannon and Hightower would save a net of $17M in cap space. (JMac is not under contract for next year)
No Gilmore would save a net of almost $10M in cap space.
That's $27M added right there.

Chung gone would cost $2M in cap space.
Beau Allen saves almost $3M.
Bolden saves $1.5M
Brandon King saves $1.4M
Vitale saves $1.2M
LaCosse saves $1.3M

$33M added back.
$69M
------
$102M total cap space projected for 2021 with the personnel losses outlined above.

That's a lot to work with even though it's never enough.
 
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Mazz22

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I am glad you started this thread as it would be good to start looking at how this team can be reshaped for 2021.

We have a nice bundle of draft picks: 1, 2, 3(comp), 4, 4(comp), 4(comp), 5, 6(Jets), 6(Cowboys), 6

We also have a lot of key free agent decisions. Let me know if I missing anyone:
Joe Thuney, Cam Newton, JC Jackson (RFA), James White, Lawrence Guy, David Andrews, Adam Butler, Jason McCourty, Rex Burkhead, Eleumunor, John Simon, Deatrich Wise, Byrd, Terez Hall (ERFA).

That is a lot of FAs to sign. I would guess we keep maybe half. I agree with you that we most likely move on from both McCourtys, Hightower, Chung and Cannon. We also will trade Gilmore.

The biggest decision obviously is Cam. Do we extend him and at what cost. I do think if he continues to trend in the direction he has been going even if we continue to lose games, he will be looking at a Teddy Bridgewater type of contract - 3 years around 20 mil per year. If he trends down then maybe more of a Foles deal 3 years at 8-10 mil per year. I would much rather have him on the latter deal but he is only 31 and proved he is healthy this season. Those two things make me think we will have to pay at least $20-25 mil a year for him to keep him. I have no idea if Bill thinks he is worth that.

If we move on from Newton then we could possibly look at signing Brissett, Winston, Prescott or Kyle Allen. Hopefully we take a QB high in the draft to develop behind whoever the bridge QB is.
 
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Mazz22

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Here is a list of all our UFAs that I am pasting from another site. We have 22! I think there may be a lot less money for FAs than we think after we address these positions one way or the other.

OL
Thuney, Andrews, Eluemunor, Ferentz [Cannon will likely retire]

RB
White, Burkhead

WR
Byrd
[Edelman could retire]

QB
Newton
Hoyer

DL
Guy, Butler, Simon, Wise, Davis

LB
Calhoun [Hightower is likely retiring]

DB
Brooks
J McCourty
[D McCourty could retire, Chung could retire]

ST
Folk
Bethel
Davis
Copeland
 

johnlocke

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Here is a list of all our UFAs that I am pasting from another site. We have 22! I think there may be a lot less money for FAs than we think after we address these positions one way or the other.

OL
Thuney, Andrews, Eluemunor, Ferentz [Cannon will likely retire]

RB
White, Burkhead

WR
Byrd
[Edelman could retire]

QB
Newton
Hoyer

DL
Guy, Butler, Simon, Wise, Davis

LB
Calhoun [Hightower is likely retiring]

DB
Brooks
J McCourty
[D McCourty could retire, Chung could retire]

ST
Folk
Bethel
Davis
Copeland

I see a great reset coming built around good young players of which they have some.

I would keep a few on D and Bethel on STs.

The rest can be moved on from.

Like I have said previously if Bill Nails this off-season as he is wont to do, the Pats will compete for a good long time.
 

Mazz22

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I see a great reset coming built around good young players of which they have some.

I would keep a few on D and Bethel on STs.

The rest can be moved on from.

Like I have said previously if Bill Nails this off-season as he is wont to do, the Pats will compete for a good long time.
He has to nail the QB. If he does that then I agree. If not, we are a bottom third to maybe middler team.
 

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A lot of the FA decisions come down to back for the buck, but if I was just looking to cut vets I'd think both McCourtys might be gone. I've heard a lot of nice things about John Simon, but I've only seen him have an impact in a couple of games. Eluemunor looked lost at LT last Sunday and he might not be a scheme fit here. I'd take my chances with just about anybody instead of Deatrich Wise, who has his moments, but doesn't really seem to be improving.

Maybe it is best to move on from Chung, Hightower and Cannon. I'd like to see Jules get another shot and he doesn't strike me as somebody that wants to go out with a whimper.

James White is pure money and one of my favorite players, but it's occurred to me that J.J. Taylor might be a reasonable facsimile who can perform a similar role for less. I've wondered if White might've lost a half a step, good as he still is.

I'll stop there for now, but I feel like it'll be a very exciting offseason with a ton of good guys in the marketplace and we'll have the ability to go after them. We have bigger problems, but despite Moose Johnson's nice comments about Jakob Johnson Sunday (Moose never met a fullback he didn't like), the Niners are having cap issues and they might have to let Kyle Juszczyk go. I think he'd fit perfectly in our offense.
 

Big/Sky/Fly

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With cap space but a lot of FAs, we wonder what BB has planned for 2021.
Here's an article by PFF that details which teams should fare well and which teams are looking a steep slide.
I believe this next year we'll see some expensive veteran leadership leave the team. DMac and Thuney head the list. I've also heard High and Cannon are considering retirement.


First things first, let’s see which teams will be best suited to retain their impending free agents (if they want to). We’re operating under the assumption that the 2021 salary cap will be the $175 million floor set by the NFLPA and NFL. While the two sides have discussed salary cap smoothing mechanisms to spread the cost over the next several seasons, the odds are that the final number will still be a much larger constraint on spending than it has been in at least a decade. The below chart will not exactly inspire confidence in free agents and their representatives, but hey, there’s no state income tax in Jacksonville, Florida.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are the only team in the NFL that currently projects to have more cap space than the sum of their pending free agent values. Jacksonville conducted a fire sale before the season that saw A.J. Bouye, Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue all get moved to new teams, which had the effect of both clearing cap space and reducing the value of their pending free agents.

View attachment 767

The New York Jets followed a similar path, acquiring multiple first-round picks from the Seattle Seahawks for safety Jamal Adams shortly before the season. The free safety they drafted in the second round in 2017 to play opposite Adams, Marcus Maye, could end up commanding a sizable extension from the Jets this offseason in his own right.

Both teams fully embraced the reality of the 2020 season and understood that in this year, even more so than others, scrapping and clawing to five wins was pointless. Their extreme frugality could provide an advantage for years to come.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the front offices of the Chicago Bears, New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles have their work cut out for them this offseason.
The Baltimore Ravens, in particular, have two edge rushers playing on franchise tags in Matthew Judon and newly acquired Yannick Ngakouee. However, they’ve also received valuable contributions from players like Jimmy Smith, Derek Wolfe, Tyus Bowser and Jihad Ward, among others. Baltimore loaded up on defense — trading for Calais Campbell even before the aforementioned Ngakoue — but there will be significant turnover after the season.

With Lamar Jackson’s rookie contract window coming to a close after next season, Baltimore poured resources into their defense — in particular, a defensive front that blitzes at a higher rate than anyone in the league.

Teams like the Ravens, Tampa Bay and New Orleans are facing significant turnover both with higher-level players as well as rotational or depth pieces. With a potential drop in the salary cap, it may be tough to avoid a slow start on the defensive side of the ball in 2021.
Jax did something amazing...and their GM got the Khan/job. :coffee:
 

Roberto71

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Here is something completely out of left field.

Could anyone see the Patriots go for Sam Darnold next season?

I know the thought is bat shit crazy, but the Jets will take Lawrence and Darnold has got to have talent, it just hasn't been realised with the Jets. Maybe Josh and co could turn him around.

Weirder things have happened.
 

Inspector_50

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Here is something completely out of left field.

Could anyone see the Patriots go for Sam Darnold next season?

I know the thought is bat shit crazy, but the Jets will take Lawrence and Darnold has got to have talent, it just hasn't been realised with the Jets. Maybe Josh and co could turn him around.

Weirder things have happened.
I dont know, its hard to tell what Darnold even is since he played with the Jets. I am not sure Josh is exactly Bill Walsh. The Patriots offensive system is not exactly easy for a broken QB to just come in and pick up.
 

Big/Sky/Fly

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Here is something completely out of left field.

Could anyone see the Patriots go for Sam Darnold next season?

I know the thought is bat shit crazy, but the Jets will take Lawrence and Darnold has got to have talent, it just hasn't been realised with the Jets. Maybe Josh and co could turn him around.

Weirder things have happened.
He wasn't that great in college or the pro's. I wouldn't trade a high pick for him. Maybe a 5th rounder. That's about it.
 
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chevss454

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Here is something completely out of left field.

Could anyone see the Patriots go for Sam Darnold next season?

I know the thought is bat shit crazy, but the Jets will take Lawrence and Darnold has got to have talent, it just hasn't been realised with the Jets. Maybe Josh and co could turn him around.

Weirder things have happened.

Yes but would the Jete consider a trade of Darnold to the Pats? Doubt it.
 

Roberto71

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I wonder what will go down with Carson Wentz? Is he salvageable at this point in his career?
 
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chevss454

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I wonder what will go down with Carson Wentz? Is he salvageable at this point in his career?

He has too much gunslinger in him for me. He's gotten worse with each passing year. I'm not saying Philly's problems are all on him but at the same time, he could be doing more to not lose games.
 

SkiptoMyLou

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Wentz looks more ruined than Darnold. That said, Darnold would basically be a cheap pick up to have as a project. He might be too far gone. He's talented, but who knows if he's go what it takes upstairs especially after three years of losing.
 

Big/Sky/Fly

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He has too much gunslinger in him for me. He's gotten worse with each passing year. I'm not saying Philly's problems are all on him but at the same time, he could be doing more to not lose games.
The GM in Philly should be canned before anyone...including the coach.
 

Big/Sky/Fly

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I know right? They had Nick Foles coming off a superbowl win and kept Wentz over him? They could have gotten something for Wentz at that time.
Foles went on a hot streak that year. He isn't very consistent.

But, the Eagles oline is absolutely terrible. No running game. No WR's.

Wentz isn't as good as advertised, but, he has literally no help.
 

foobahl

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Foles went on a hot streak that year. He isn't very consistent.

But, the Eagles oline is absolutely terrible. No running game. No WR's.

Wentz isn't as good as advertised, but, he has literally no help.
Foles won that Superbowl. Wentz would not have and probably never will win a superbowl as the starting qb, unless it is a Dilfer/old Manning type of situation.
 
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