My FA/Draft Plan

[mayoclinic]

With free agency 2 days away, here's what I would do if I were in BB/Caserio's shoes:

Internal FA's"

- Continue to work on a long term (3-4 year) deal with Wes Welker that would lower his cap number
- Sign Dan Connelly, Kyle Love and Mark Anderson to long term deals. I've never been a huge Matt Slater fan, but realistically he's a core STer, and he should probably be signed as well.
- Try to sign Andre Carter to a short-term deal, depending on what the Pats do in the Mario Williams sweepstakes (see below) and with other external FAs.
- Tender Brian Hoyer at a 1st or 2nd round level (probably 2nd, to be realistic). I see Ryan Mallett stepping up to the #2 role in 2012, and I like the idea of trading Hoyer. Cleveland missed out on the RGIII derby. Unless they sign Matt Flynn or like Ryan Tannenhill so much that they take him at #4 (Miami at #8, Seattle at #12 and Arizona at #13 make trading back risky), a cost-effective alternative would be to trade for Hoyer. They have lots of extra picks. I'd settle for Hoyer for #68, or for a 2013 2nd round pick (I would trade #68 for a 2013 2nd in any case).
- Re-sign James Ihedigbo if the money is right. If someone wants to pay him outside of the Pats salary structure there are plenty of other options, but he played well enough in 2011 to merit a call back if he wants to return.

I'm not a huge BJGE fan and don't see him being as good a fit into the kind of offense I would like to see the Pats run as Vereen, Ridley and Woodhead. I can see the Pats making him an offer, but I wouldn't stretch very far to keep him.

I assume Gary Guyton is gone.

I'm assuming Brian Waters will be back. I'm not so sure about Matt Light - if he wants to finish his contract fine, but I wouldn't reach for him if he decides to hang it up or wants more money.

External FA's:

- Sign Dallas Clark, assuming he passes a physical. I'd rather have Clark than any WR in FA as a cost-effective addition to the team. He will stretch the field, can be lined up at WR as well as TE, and is a consummate profession. The combination of Gronk, Hernandez and Clark would be deadly.
- I'm not averse to signing a UFA WR who can stretch the field at reasonable money - Brandon Lloyd and Robert Meachem come to mind - but I wouldn't break the bank.
- Go after Mario Williams. He would be a difference maker. It's a bit of a long shot, but not out of the question. Adam Carriker would be a quality 3-4 DE addition if the Pats lose out on Williams. Both would be great, but even more unlikely. However, as much as Andre Carter brought to the table last year, he is 33 and coming off an injury. I wouldn't mind using Carter's $$$ to sign Carriker, and then getting Williams to replace Carter. Carriker turns 28 in May.

The Draft:

- If any of the top 4 DTs (Cox, Brockers, Poe and Still, in roughly that order) are on the board by pick #20 or so, I would consider a trade up. A lot depends who is still available, and how the Pats project the picks falling. Snagging one of those guys at 27 would be a coup, but if the Pats think they will be gone then I'd consider trading up. 27+94 gets us to around 20-21. 27+127 gets us to around 24-25. Denver at 25 is a prime candidate to take a DT. Pittsburgh at 24 might be willing to move back a few slots. Rumors are that they are interested in Dont'a Hightower to replace James Farrior, and he would probably be available if they traded back. Particularly if the Pats got Carriker in FA, they would have the best DL they've had since 2008, with considerable flexibility to play both 3 and 4 man fronts.
- I'm not a fan of the "pass rushers" in this draft, and wouldn't take any of Mercilus, Perry, Branch or Curry at #31. I'd take another big DL if one of them slipped, but with Green Bay in the market I have a hard time seeing 2 guys lasting to 27 and 31. I think the Pats trade back. The market won't support the kind of trade they did with NO in 2011, so it's more like what they did in 2010. I could see trading with Indy to move from 31 to 34, especially if Indy wants to jump ahead of the Giants and snag Coby Fleener to pair with Andrew Luck and replace Dallas Clark. The Pats would pick up Indy's 1st pick in the 5th round (currently 127, but probably around 130 or so after comp picks are assigned). 130 (42 points) + 34 (560 points) works out to 602 points, vs. 600 for pick #31, according to the trade value chart.
- At 34 I see the Pats going DB. Mark Barron will likely be gone, and personally I'd rather a CB/FS hyrbid than Barron, who is too much like Patrick Chung. Stephon Gilmore will also probably be gone. But Alfonzo Dennard should be available. Tampa Bay at 35 is rumored to like Dennard, and needs DB help. If the Pats think he would last further, another trade back (again, as they did in 2011) could be in order to pick up a bit more real estate.
- At 48 I'd like to see the Pats pick up a DE/OLB. I'm not a Vinny Curry or Andre Branch fan, but they could be options. If either Hightower or Upshaw slipped, they could also be options. Boise St.'s Shea McClellin is climbing draft boards fast, and has good versatility. My personal favorite is Oklahoma DE/OLB Ronnell Lewis. I'll go with Lewis for now.
- At 63 the Pats would probably go BPA. This could be another DL or DB, an OL, or a TE or WR. Guys who could be available in this range include DLs Alameda Ta'amu, Josh Chapman or possibly even Kendall Reyes or Jerel Worthy if they slip, DBs Chase Minnifield and Trumaine Johnson, OLs Mitchell Schwartz and Amini Sitatolu, WR Joe Adams, and TEs Dwayne Allen and Orson Charles (both of whom seem to be slipping). Assuming the Pats sign Dallas Clark and get a FA WR, I'd go either DL or OL. If Jerel Worthy or Alameda Ta'mu are available here they may be too good to pass up. But I'm going to go for now with Cal OL Mitchell Schwartz, a guy who can play all 5 OL positions well, and who Tony Pauline believes will be a top 60 pick. The Cal coaches call Schwartz the smartest OL they have ever coached, and he has a combination of savvy, toughness and versatility that makes him a great fit for the Pats. A "poor man's Barrett Jones".
- As stated above, I would trade #68 acquired for Brian Hoyer for a 2013 2nd round pick.
- I'm guessing that either 94 or 127 could be used in a trade up. If both are available, along with #130 or so from the Colts. But if the Pats still have pick #94, then I'd go OL if the Pats went DL at #63, and DL if the Pats went OL. Since I went OL, I'd go with Alabama DT Josh Chapman here if he's still available. With Vince Wilfork on the wrong side of 30, a true NT to keep Wilfork fresh and guard against injury would be valuable.
- If the Pats still have 124, along with 130 or so from the Colts, then I'd go after a DB and a WR. Guys will fall. I like Jamell Fleming from Oklahoma, Josh Norman from Coastal Carolina and at DB. I like Chris Owusu from Stanford or Greg Childs from Arkansas if they are available - both have injury issues, but huge upside. Joe Adams, Jarius Wright, AJ Jenkins, Tommy Stretter and Jeff Fuller could also be options in the late 4th/early 5th round. Someone will be available.

Working through all of that, my dream draft would look something like:

27. Pats get lucky and Cox or Brockers slips through. I'l call it Cox for now. Both have 3-4/4-3 versatility.
34. Alfonzo Dennard, DB, Nebraska. 5'10" 204#. Very strong and physical. Can play FS or CB.
48. Ronnell Lewis, DE/OLB, Oklahoma. 6'2" 253#. Tremendously phsyical, brutal hitter. Very versatile, can play in both 3-4 and 4-3 schemes. Great STer.
63. Mitchell Schwartz, OL, Cal. 6'5" 317#. Tough, durable, savvy, experiences OL who can play all 5 positions. Scar will love him. Tough call between Schwartz and Amini Sitatolu.
94. Josh Chapman, DT, Alabama. 6'1" 317#. True NT backup for Vince Wilfork. Tough kid who played injured most of 2011. If Alameda Ta'amu lasts this far I'd probably take him over Chapman, but it's close.
127. Jamell Fleming, DB, Okalhoma. A steal here. Another big CB with the ability to play FS.
130. Chris Owusu, WR, Stanford. 6' 200#. A bigger, faster version of Deion Branch. Would likely have been a 2nd round pick if not for the concussions. Or substitute who you wish.

I would also see the Pats going aggressively after UDFAs, especially at WR, OG/C, OT, DL and DB.

My prospective 2012 Pats' roster would look something like this:

Offense (24-25):

- QB(2): Tom Brady, Ryan Mallet. Only 2 will be active on game day anyway, with Welker/Edelman as the emergency backups. The Pats can keep 1-2 guys on the PS, or sign a vet if someone gets injured.

- RB(4): Shane Vereen, Stephen Ridley and Danny Woodhead. Either BJGE if he re-signs, or a late round/UDFA rookie or low-cost veteran picked up during the summer months.

- WR(6): Wes Welker, a UFA WR (I'll call it Robert Meachem for now), Chad Ochocinco if he restructures, Julian Edelman and Matt Slater. A rookie WR such as Chris Owusu or Greg Childs could fight it out with Tiquan Underwood for the last spot.

- TE(3-4): Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Dallas Clark. I would personally like to keep 4 TEs, with Dorin Dickerson being an option for the 4th spot. Alge Crumpler could also come back if his shoulder is healed.

- OT(4): Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Marcus Cannon and Mitchell Schwartz. Cannon and Schwartz both have the potential to play guard as well (and Schwartz looked good at center during Senior Bowl practices), giving the Pats a lot of versatility. All the better if Matt Light returns for one more year - one of Schwartz/Cannon can be used as a guard.

- OG/C(5): Logan Mankins, Dan Connolly and Brian Waters. Nick McDonald seems like a keeper as a backup OG/C. Either Schwartz or Cannon could be counted as a guard, or the Pats could keep Ryan Wendell, who I personally consider a JAG.

Defense (25-26):

DL(6-7): Vince Wilfork is the cornerstone. A rookie DE/DT like Fletcher Cox, Michael Brockers or Devon Still would provide an impact player next to Wilfork with 3-4/4-3 flexibility. Adam Carriker would take Shawn Ellis' spot, and provide a quality 3-4 DE. Kyle Love and Myron Pryor are quality reserves who should get a fair amount of playing time. A rookie like Josh Chapman would also provide quality depth and flexibility. If there is a 7th spot then Ron Brace, Brandon Deaderick and Gerard Warren can fight it out f (I favor Deaderick, with Brace cut and Warren on speed dial in case of injury).

DE/OLB(4-5): If the Pats win the Mario Williams sweepstakes, then a group of Mario Williams, Mark Anderson, Rob Ninkovich, Ronnell Lewis (or another rookie) and Jermaine Cunningham would be very solid. If they lose out on Super Mario, then Andre Carter returns. Either way, this would be a very strong group, and Cunningham will be on the bubble and will have to play his way onto the roster. If Markell Carter is progressing then he could battle Cunningham, or could make Cunningham expendable to be traded for a late round pick.

ILB(4): Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes, Dane Fletcher and Jeff Tarpinian are givens. Gary Guyton moves on. Tracy White is +/- in my book.

DB(9-10): Devin McCourty, Pat Chung, Ras-I Dowling, Alfonzo Dennard and Kyle Arrington are the nucleus, with Sterling Moore also getting considerable playing time. All except Chung can play CB (slot or outside) or FS, giving tremendous depth and flexibility. A rookie like Jamell Fleming, Antwaun Molden, James Ihedigbo, Josh Barrett, Sergio Brown and Malcolm Williams can fight it out for another 3-4 spots. You can never have too many quality DBs.

Special Teams:

K Stephen Gostkowski, P Zoltan Mesko and LS are set. There's a ton of ST talent on the regular roster.

I like that team.

 

[Jaric]

I'm not sure I see a reason to sign Dallas Clark (even if healthy)

Yeah, he can line out at WR, but it's always been as a slot WR, which you already have on the roster (and one who is better at it than clark is)

I'd see him as a 3rd TE at best and a back up slot receiver at best (unless you're running 4 wide or planning on switching Welker)

 

[HSanders]

Mayo-Are you fine w/ the return ability @ KR & PR that the Pats have now?
W/ the C position, is it lack of depth in the draft of satisfaction w/ what the Pats already have (noticing that you didn't mention a possibility of Koppen's return) that leads you to conclude they don't pick a C?

I think White is pretty much a lock to stay. It seems they consider him a valid option @ ILB since he started in the SB over Fletcher (which I am still wondering why exactly they did that) along w/ his ST contributions.

 

[Stylez4o1]

I like your off season plan. Almost how I would like it. Depending on what happens in FA things will change of course, but here's my ideal plan.

.)I would love Mario Williams. This will definitely help the secondary a whole lot. It'll be like killing 2 birds with 1 stone.

2.)Sign Brandon Lloyd OR trade a 1st(31) for Wallace. Assuming we keep the majority of the players from last season this would be a major upgrade.

Then the biggest need will then be SS or DB.

3.)Sign some FA- SS or CB? or Draft? How are the SS in this draft?

4.) Draft OL, LB, and DL.

I'm not a huge college guy, but I do follow once the off season hits. Lets say Pats don't get a WR in FA. Do you know anything about Stephen Hill from GT? I keep hearing good things about him. I know he has the size and has good but not elite speed. He also lacked numbers because of the type of offense that was being run over there at GT. Any thoughts on him?

 

[mayoclinic]

Mayo-Are you fine w/ the return ability @ KR & PR that the Pats have now?
W/ the C position, is it lack of depth in the draft of satisfaction w/ what the Pats already have (noticing that you didn't mention a possibility of Koppen's return) that leads you to conclude they don't pick a C?

I think White is pretty much a lock to stay. It seems they consider him a valid option @ ILB since he started in the SB over Fletcher (which I am still wondering why exactly they did that) along w/ his ST contributions.

1. KR/PR. I think Edelman is set at PR, and is very good. Welker is also very good, though I obviously don't want him returning punts on a regular basis.

KR could use some upgrading. Shane Vereen has a lot of upside in this area, and hasn't really been used. Danny Woodhead also has some ability. I don't like Matt Slater as a KR. A rookie WR who can return kickoffs would be a plus. Both Chris Owusu and Joe Adams would fit the bill, and they're on my short list.

2. Center. Dan Connolly is pretty steady. The Pats seemed to like Nick McDonald, and there were some suggestions that they could potentially view him as a long term starter at center. He'll turn 25 in June, and he's probably as good a long term developmental starter at center as Mike Brewster or Philip Blake would be. If the Pats liked either of those 2 guys and wanted them I wouldn't have a problem with it, but I see center as a place for potential upgrade, but not an urgent need (assuming Connolly is re-signed).

I do think that drafting an OL with center capability is a plus, but not necessarily a true college center. Mitchell Schwartz played LT for Cal put has experience at RT, guard, and even played some center at the Senior Bowl and reportedly looked good. I view him as a 5 position lineman. Some have suggested that Amini Sitatolu (also a college LT, though projected to guard) has the attributes to be a successful OC conversion.

Finally, Alabama OL Barrett Jones is one of my top prospects for 2013. He's being moved from LT (where he won the Ouland Trophy) to center this year (he has played guard and center before). He's a slightly better version of Mitchell Schwartz, a 5 position lineman. Moving to center may decrease his draft stock. He's definitely on my short list for the Pats in 2013 if center is a need.

3. White could beat out either Tarpinian and Fletcher, if he is re-signed, but I don't consider him a lock. I'm not sure why he started in the SB, but I personally don't consider him a valid option at ILB. I left him as a question mark for now. Time will tell.

 

[The Hoodie]

Nice to see you back, Mayo, for the time being.

Interesting thoughts in terms of signing Dallas Clark. His age and injury history could decrease his price and we can snag him to be the #3 TE. I do like the sound of 3 TE sets with Gronk/Hern/Clark on the field, but I think they would be lining Hernandez at WR if need be rather than Clark.

Mario Williams is a no-brainer and I expect Kraft and Belichick to be very aggressive with getting him, probably more-so than they did with Peppers. Ideally I'd like to have Mario Williams and Andre Carter on the ends with Mark Anderson coming in when need be. I think, regardless, they sign Carter/Anderson.

I do like the look of STs, especially if they had Vereen returning KOs instead of Danny Woodhead or M.Slater. I questioned why Vereen was not returning kicks during the season but we came to an assumption that injury problems were the culprit. Slater clearly has good speed but has not shown he can be very effective as the ball carrier so they could probably get return man later in the draft.

 

[mayoclinic]

I like your off season plan. Almost how I would like it. Depending on what happens in FA things will change of course, but here's my ideal plan.

.)I would love Mario Williams. This will definitely help the secondary a whole lot. It'll be like killing 2 birds with 1 stone.

2.)Sign Brandon Lloyd OR trade a 1st(31) for Wallace. Assuming we keep the majority of the players from last season this would be a major upgrade.

Then the biggest need will then be SS or DB.

3.)Sign some FA- SS or CB? or Draft? How are the SS in this draft?

4.) Draft OL, LB, and DL.

I'm not a huge college guy, but I do follow once the off season hits. Lets say Pats don't get a WR in FA. Do you know anything about Stephen Hill from GT? I keep hearing good things about him. I know he has the size and has good but not elite speed. He also lacked numbers because of the type of offense that was being run over there at GT. Any thoughts on him?

I don't like Wallace for #31, and I don't like Hill at all.

The Pats' have proven over and over that they require WRs who are polished and precision route runners. Tom Brady demands WRs who run tight routes with good timing. He consistently has not done well with WRs who don't fit that mold, both rookies and veterans - Bethel Johnson, Chad Jackson, Brandon Tate and Taylor Price were all guys with good size/speed but who didn't have good experience running a precision route tree in a pro offense. Joe Galloway relied on pure speed over precision route running, and Chad Ochocinco was known for his "freelancing" style at Cincinnati. None were very productive for the Pats, though Ochocinco is still a potential work in progress and seems to be trying to adapt.

My #1 requirement for a Pats WR would be someone who is experienced in a pro style offense and who can run a precision route tree. Mike Wallace was a speed burner, and Rothlisberger was at his best improvising outside of the pocket, not running a precision passing offense. While it seems that Wallace has made considerable progress with his route running, I'm not sure that I'd have enough confidence in him being a fit to give up both a big contract and a #1 draft pick. Brandon Lloyd is likely to come much cheaper, and is a much more polished route runner, with experience in Josh McDaniel's offense and working out of a pro style set with a top pocket QB (Sam Bradford).

As for the draft, Stephen Hill is exactly the kind of WR who I think is doomed to failure with the Pats - a great size/speed guy who comes out of a funky college offense and has no experience running a precision route tree in a pro style offense. Reuben Randle is also someone I'd avoid based on his college offensive scheme. Alshon Jeffrey relied on his size to overpower college DBs, and isn't a polished route runner. I'd avoid all of those guys.

The two college programs which stand out to me for having a pro style offense are Stanford and Arkansas. I like Chris Owusu because he does run precise routes, and has experience with Andrew Luck working with an elite QB in a pro style offense. Similarly for Greg Childs with Ryan Mallett prior to his ACL injury, and with Joe Adams and Jarius Wright. One of those 4 guys should last to the late 4th/early 5th round. I'd also consider AJ Jenkins from Illinois. One guy I should have put on my list is Ryan Broyles from Oklahoma, another guy who has dropped from a potential 1st to a mid-round pick based on injuries. Give me any of those guys and I'm happy.

 

[mayoclinic]

BTW, if the Pats wanted to spend $$$ on a young FA WR I'd go after Pierre Garcon over Mike Wallace. Garcon has experience working in a precision pro offense with Peyton Manning. That would give him a huge edge in being able to work with Brady. He reportedly turned down something like 5 years @ $35M from the Colts, so he wouldn't come cheap. But he wouldn't cost a 1st round pick. He has similar size/speed to Wallace, and is young.

 

[mayoclinic]

BTW, here's a comparison of Garcon and Wallace:

- Wallace: Age 25 (turns 26 in August). 6'0" 199#. 4.28 40 in 2009 with a 1.43 10 yard split, 6.90 3-cone, 4.19 short shuttle, 40" vertical, 10'7" broad jump. Not very strong (14 reps @ 225), at least when he came out. In 3 seasons he's produced 171 receptions for 3206 yards (18.7 YPR average) and 24 TDs.

- Garcon: Age 25 (7 days younger than Wallace). 6'0" 210#. 4.42 40 in 2008 with a 1.5 10 yard split, 6.90 3-cone, 4.19 short shuttle, 36.5" vertical, 10'5" broad jump. A bit stronger than Wallace coming out (20 reps @ 225). Saw little playing time as a rookie, but in the past 3 years has produced 182 receptions for 2496 yards (13.7 YPR average) and 16 TDs.

Wallace has a bit more speed (though Garcon is a legitimate deep threat) and has produced more TDs, but Garcon has been playing in more of a pro precision offense in which he was not the #1 WR.

I personally think Garcon is a better fit for the Pats and is more likely to succeed with TB than Wallace. I certainly don't see that the difference between the two would justify a #1 draft pick in compensation.

 

[mayoclinic]

Nice to see you back, Mayo, for the time being.

Interesting thoughts in terms of signing Dallas Clark. His age and injury history could decrease his price and we can snag him to be the #3 TE. I do like the sound of 3 TE sets with Gronk/Hern/Clark on the field, but I think they would be lining Hernandez at WR if need be rather than Clark.

Thanks. I think Clark would be a cost-effective signing who would add a ton to the offense. I disagree with Jaric. First, I think the Pats would run lots of 3 TE sets. Clark has the ability to stretch the field from either the TE or WR position. Hernandez can operate out of the WR or RB positions as well. The Pats' would have a ton of flexibility.

Mario Williams is a no-brainer and I expect Kraft and Belichick to be very aggressive with getting him, probably more-so than they did with Peppers. Ideally I'd like to have Mario Williams and Andre Carter on the ends with Mark Anderson coming in when need be. I think, regardless, they sign Carter/Anderson.

I think I'd prefer to sign Adam Carriker to take Shawn Ellis' spot, sign Mark Anderson long term, and go after Mario Williams with Andre Carter a backup option if Williams doesn't pan out. Given Carter's age and injury, I doubt another team will lock him up right away, whereas the Williams bidding will probably be resolved fairly quickly. With Williams, Anderson, Ninkovich, Cunningham and Markell Carter as DE/OLBs (and possibly a rookie), I think the money Carter would demand would be better spent elsewhere.

I do like the look of STs, especially if they had Vereen returning KOs instead of Danny Woodhead or M.Slater. I questioned why Vereen was not returning kicks during the season but we came to an assumption that injury problems were the culprit. Slater clearly has good speed but has not shown he can be very effective as the ball carrier so they could probably get return man later in the draft.

This team has a ton of ST capability. Slater, Edelman, Tarpinian, White, Vereen, Woodhead, Ninkovich, McCourty, Arrington, Malcolm Williams, just to name a few. Of the rookies I've listed I could see Ronnell Williams, Jamell Fleming, Chris Owusu/Joe Adams and Alfonzo Dennard being strong STers.

 

[HSanders]

Thanks Mayo!

RE: your Alabama OL thought, I continue to be puzzled by BB's seldom drafting Saban guys especially their DBs. It does seem that Saban's guys top out at times (living up to their potential wise) as college players.

 

[MaineMan]

Excellent and comprehensive projection for the final 53-man roster with very reasonable contingencies.

For myself, I'm still lagging behind with "Stage One" - filtering the current roster and projecting the 80-man off-season/camp roster.

According to my records, the Pats finished the playoffs with 73 guys, including soon-to-be UFAs, Injured Reserves and guys known to have been given Reserve/Future contracts.

[Note: I have Dickerson as a question mark. He was signed to the PS on 12/7/11 and went on IR 1/25/12 from there. He's still under whatever PS contract he signed for another day or so, but I haven't found anything indicating that he signed an R/F contract, so he may be on the verge of UFA status, AFAIK. Anyone have any further info?]

I see seven guys as "likely gone" (for various reasons):
Guyton
Koppen
Ellis
BGE - lured away by more money
Faulk - retires
Brett Lockett - ERFA on the cusp of breaking Crable's IR record
Nathan Jones - meh

So, that takes the roster down to 66, including 10 UFAs and Hoyer (as yet un-tendered):

Anderson
Andre Carter
Warren

Connolly

Branch

Ihedigbo
Molden

Koutouvides
Slater
White

Even if all these guys are re-signed (though 2-3 may not be), it still leaves 14 spots open for FA signings/draft picks (currently at 6). And then there's the potential retirements of Light/Waters, trade of Hoyer, etc.

My point being that there's plenty of room to sign multiple veteran UFA DL (relatively cheap ones) and more than Dallas Clark among the UFA TEs. So, y'know, the whole "instead of Clark, the Pats should sign . . ." discussion (for example) seems kinda moot to me at this point. The Pats could easily sign Clark AND Fells (or whoever) and see who works out best (and maybe keep both?).
------------
Speaking of TEs, Dickerson is a "different" case to me. His official Combine measurements were 6016/226, which is not only small for a TE, but actually a tad smaller than few of the WR draft prospects that are being mentioned frequently. From what I've read, the Texans tried him at WR, but it didn't work for them. So, I'm not sure where that leaves Dickerson. On the offense.

However, the guy posted excellent numbers at his Combine, is almost identical in size to Josh Barrett, and, apparently began his college career as a linebacker.

Just sayin'.

 

[chevss454]

BTW, here's a comparison of Garcon and Wallace:

- Wallace: Age 25 (turns 26 in August). 6'0" 199#. 4.28 40 in 2009 with a 1.43 10 yard split, 6.90 3-cone, 4.19 short shuttle, 40" vertical, 10'7" broad jump. Not very strong (14 reps @ 225), at least when he came out. In 3 seasons he's produced 171 receptions for 3206 yards (18.7 YPR average) and 24 TDs.

- Garcon: Age 25 (7 days younger than Wallace). 6'0" 210#. 4.42 40 in 2008 with a 1.5 10 yard split, 6.90 3-cone, 4.19 short shuttle, 36.5" vertical, 10'5" broad jump. A bit stronger than Wallace coming out (20 reps @ 225). Saw little playing time as a rookie, but in the past 3 years has produced 182 receptions for 2496 yards (13.7 YPR average) and 16 TDs.

Wallace has a bit more speed (though Garcon is a legitimate deep threat) and has produced more TDs, but Garcon has been playing in more of a pro precision offense in which he was not the #1 WR.

I personally think Garcon is a better fit for the Pats and is more likely to succeed with TB than Wallace. I certainly don't see that the difference between the two would justify a #1 draft pick in compensation.

Good OP, MC. I can see it happening just the way you outlined it although I almost expect BB to trade back with both 1st rnd picks to gain extra 2nd & 3rd rounders.

I've thought about Garcon a little bit. The only issue I have with Garcon is his propensity to drop balls. Still, he was productive with Painter and Orlovsky throwing to him last year. It will likely come down to perceived value for any FA WR to join the Pats. Either Garcon or Lloyd would be upgrades; which one prices themselves out of the Pats' market may be the end question. I'm guessing Lloyd would take a discount the way he's been talking. We have no idea about either player's mental make up. Reading today that Lloyd is a bit of a gamble from a team chemistry pov makes me want to find out more about him. If he checks out, I'm leaning towards him simply because he has great hands and body control. But 6 teams in 9 years? That's not normal.

 

[Jaric]

BTW, if the Pats wanted to spend $$$ on a young FA WR I'd go after Pierre Garcon over Mike Wallace. Garcon has experience working in a precision pro offense with Peyton Manning. That would give him a huge edge in being able to work with Brady. He reportedly turned down something like 5 years @ $35M from the Colts, so he wouldn't come cheap. But he wouldn't cost a 1st round pick. He has similar size/speed to Wallace, and is young.

Pierre is extremely talented and physical. He also has concentration issues. Drops routine passes but can snatch a ball one handed out of the air and make it look easy.

The word that keeps coming up around the colts forum is "inconsistent" which I think is both fair and accurate.

He's also young and talented.

 

[mayoclinic]

Pierre is extremely talented and physical. He also has concentration issues. Drops routine passes but can snatch a ball one handed out of the air and make it look easy.

The word that keeps coming up around the colts forum is "inconsistent" which I think is both fair and accurate.

He's also young and talented.

I've seen a few of both the circus catches and the drops. But as you say he's young and talented, and no WR is perfect. He seems a better fit to me than someone like Mike Wallace - he's a better route runner and is more physical, and is better working in a precision offense, plus he wouldn't cost a 1st round pick in addition to everything else.

 

[mayoclinic]

I've thought about Garcon a little bit. The only issue I have with Garcon is his propensity to drop balls. Still, he was productive with Painter and Orlovsky throwing to him last year. It will likely come down to perceived value for any FA WR to join the Pats. Either Garcon or Lloyd would be upgrades; which one prices themselves out of the Pats' market may be the end question. I'm guessing Lloyd would take a discount the way he's been talking. We have no idea about either player's mental make up. Reading today that Lloyd is a bit of a gamble from a team chemistry pov makes me want to find out more about him. If he checks out, I'm leaning towards him simply because he has great hands and body control. But 6 teams in 9 years? That's not normal.

Greg Bedard looked at Brandon Lloyd in today's Globe, and came up with a lot of negative personal stuff from his former teammates:

The book on Lloyd, according to several league sources at his various stops, is that he can be moody and surly, depending on the day, and a bit selfish. You won’t find many teammates who have good things to say about him. But others have said that when Lloyd is on the practice field or in games, he is fine and can be managed.

Not everyone agrees. “I know you’ve heard he was good in the building, but he wasn’t necessarily an angel in the building,’’ said the Broncos source. “He wasn’t a good teammate. During games, he was asking the stat person to see how many catches and yards he had at that point in the game when [Kyle] Orton was starting. He has that locker room lawyer-type in him. Publicly he’ll say all the right things, but in the locker room he’ll voice his opinion. He’s extremely intelligent. Very articulate, very well-read, but there were times when people in the building thought he may be bipolar - and not joking - because he has days where he’s up and ready to go and happy-go-lucky and he’s like, ‘Hey, what’s up? How’s it going?’ And then there were other days when he was surly and moody, and you just know it’s not a good day to approach him. He’s kind of a different cat, I’ll say that.’’

In many ways, Lloyd sounds similar to Albert Haynesworth - without the off-field incidents or the label of a quitter, though the 49ers, Redskins, and Bears weren’t always thrilled with Lloyd’s work ethic.

But the Denver source also believes that if there is any person who can get Lloyd to play at his best, and be on his best behavior, it’s McDaniels. He’s like the Lloyd Whisperer.

http://www.boston.com/sports/footba..._fit_for_brandon_lloyd_because_of_mcdaniels/

No thanks. I'll pass. A surly, possibly bipolar WR who is selfish, has a questionable work ethic, is potentially a disruptive presence in the lockerroom, and draws compariosons to Albert Haynesworth? BB would really have to trust Josh McDaniels to go after him. I think that 6 teams in 9 years says that there's a fair amount of substance to those comments.

 

[chevss454]

Greg Bedard looked at Brandon Lloyd in today's Globe, and came up with a lot of negative personal stuff from his former teammates:

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2012/03/11/patriots_could_be_a_fit_for_brandon_lloyd_because_of_mcdaniels/

No thanks. I'll pass. A surly, possibly bipolar WR who is selfish, has a questionable work ethic, is potentially a disruptive presence in the lockerroom, and draws compariosons to Albert Haynesworth? BB would really have to trust Josh McDaniels to go after him. I think that 6 teams in 9 years says that there's a fair amount of substance to those comments.

Definitely sounds manic-depressive to me.

 

[mayoclinic]

FWIW, Mike Reiss addresses 2 of the points in my OP in today's "Quick Hits": the idea of someone trading up to #31 for Coby Fleener to leapfrom the Giants, and Brian Hoyer being tendered at a 2nd round level:

7. In a draft where the tight end crop is considered lean, and the tight end needy New York Giants are picking 32nd, could the Patriots’ No. 31 pick have some trade value if top-rated tight end Coby Fleener is still on the board? That’s probably one of many scenarios the Patriots, never shy about moving a pick, have already projected. Maybe a team could come calling to leapfrog the Giants.

8. Teams will be tendering their restricted free agents by Tuesday, and the biggie for the Patriots is backup quarterback Brian Hoyer. Because Hoyer entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent, another team could sign him without giving up compensation if he’s tendered at the lowest level ($1.26 million). So that could lead the Patriots to a second-round level tender, which will be about $1.9 million. Too rich? I don't think so for a solid insurance policy at the game's most important position.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...718917/quick-hit-thoughts-around-nfl-pats-94

Reiss also suggests that picking up San Diego UFA DE Luis Castillo might be a smart move:

6. The Patriots struck gold when signing an injured veteran from the Chargers in 2003 – Rodney Harrison. I think they’d be smart to think along the same lines this year, with eight-year veteran defensive lineman Luis Castillo. Help is needed up front.

While I agree that "help is needed up front", I'd much rather target Carriker than Castillo. Castillo will be 29 in August, is injury prone, has had knee surger in the past, is coming off IR from a broken leg, and was cut because he would have lost his starting job anyway. He is also a bit shorter than the Pats' normally like their 3-4 DE's at 6'2". Carriker is a younger (he'll be 28 in May), taller, and seems to be improving. But Castillo might be a backup option, depending on his health.

 

[The Gr8est]

FWIW, Mike Reiss addresses 2 of the points in my OP in today's "Quick Hits": the idea of someone trading up to #31 for Coby Fleener to leapfrom the Giants, and Brian Hoyer being tendered at a 2nd round level:

Good call there mayo, you were ahead of Reiss on that one.

One thing occurred to me recently. Now that Polian is gone, Indy is back in play as a potential trade partner; as they could be in the Fleener example.

 

[MaineMan]

FWIW, Mike Reiss addresses 2 of the points in my OP in today's "Quick Hits": the idea of someone trading up to #31 for Coby Fleener to leapfrom the Giants, and Brian Hoyer being tendered at a 2nd round level:



http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4718917/quick-hit-thoughts-around-nfl-pats-94

Reiss also suggests that picking up San Diego UFA DE Luis Castillo might be a smart move:



While I agree that "help is needed up front", I'd much rather target Carriker than Castillo. Castillo will be 29 in August, is injury prone, has had knee surger in the past, is coming off IR from a broken leg, and was cut because he would have lost his starting job anyway. He is also a bit shorter than the Pats' normally like their 3-4 DE's at 6'2". Carriker is a younger (he'll be 28 in May), taller, and seems to be improving. But Castillo might be a backup option, depending on his health.

Agree about Carriker over Castillo. There are some other guys who might be decent additional (relatively cheap) depth signings, like Kendall Langford.

I also just remembered to follow up on Leger Douzable (6046/305, out of UCF) - a guy I kinda liked as a potential UDFA pickup in 2008 (the Vikes snagged him). He bounced around from the Vikes to the Giants, Rams and Lions before settling in with JAX. He finally got a chance to start (DT) the last four games of 2011 - averaged 7.5 tackles/game and got his first sack (vs. TEN). Anyway, just turning 26, I think. Never played 3-4DE, though, AFAIK.

Jamaal Anderson (Colts) is another relatively young (compared to Gerard Warren/Shaun Ellis) DT of good size (6'6"/290-something) who's never played 3-4 DE, but who might be a cheap signing for camp.