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Patriots’ Draft Preview: 3-4 Outside Linebackers (Jerry Thornton)
Patriots’ Draft Preview: 3-4 Outside Linebackers
http://boston.barstoolsports.com/random-thoughts/patriots-draft-preview-3-4-outside-linebackers/
Patriots current roster/ needs: People say it’s hard to tell what Bill Belichick looks for when he’s scouting outside linebackers for his 3-4. Well here’s his entire philosophy reduced to formula: “6-4-4-6.” That is, his ideal guy is 6-4 or bigger, 4.6 or faster. He likes big guys who are strong enough to set the edge against the run, quick enough to cover the flat or get into the backfield, and long enough to get a hand up and disrupt the QB’s passing lanes. The optimum OLB during his time in NE has been Willie McGinest, who could do all of the above.
And yet every single year, the football press manages to convince themselves that this year is different. That this is the year The Hooded One throws away the book he’s spent 35 years writing and goes after and “elite pass rush” specialist who can “get after the quarterback” and “apply pressure.” And every year I remind the world that in his 11 Patriots drafts and 11 free agency periods, he’s never once brought in a guy that fits that description. I run around like the scientist from a Syfy Original Movie, showing everyone the data, laying out my case, telling them to heed my warning. But they still… won’t… listen. Belichick will no doubt look for a guy who can (altogether now) apply pressure. But if he’s not a 5-tooler like McGinest or Mike Vrabel or Jermaine Cunningham, he won’t bother. He’d no sooner bring a 5-11 James Harrison-type and fit him into this defense than he’d outfit a pickup with three truck tires and one wheel off a Mini Cooper. Cunningham was steady and looked like he belonged. Rob Ninkovich was adequate. But they need help on the outside. The problem is there aren’t McGinests and Vrabels in this year’s crop. Or ever.
Positional overview: As you sift through draft reports, the hardest job is sorting out the 3-4 OLBs from all the other front 7 guys. They’re a species onto themselves. So a guy listed as a defensive end in one publication is an OLB on a website and then the trick is to try to project a college guy to move up to the pros then slide outside to a position he’s never played in his life. Since my and your relationship is built on trust, I’m not going to lie and act like I’m smart enough to do this. But I am smart enough to search other sites that break down the prospects into 3-4 OLBs and cross check them. So that’s what I’ve done. The ones I mention here are being looked at as 3-4 fits, no matter where they lined up in school.
Guaranteed first OLB taken: Von Miller, Texas A&M. 6-3, 246, 4.49.
Miller is the hands down class of this draft. The speedy, quick-twitch edge rusher that makes the cast of “NFL Playbook” lick themselves like dogs. Some early mocks had him going No. 1 overall, but no one has him getting back Buffalo at No. 3.
The perfect fit for the Patriots who’s completely out of their reach thanks to the Raiders who didn’t have the decency to suck enough last year: Robert Quinn, No. Carolina. 6-4, 265, 4.58.
Even after getting suspended for all of 2010 over some stupid NCAA rule no one cares about, Quinn is the guy teams who play a Pats-style 3-4 (as opposed to a Dick Lebeau type 3-4) drool over. He’s got Big Willie Style explosiveness, strength, size and agility. There hasn’t been this good a matchup involving a Quinn since Finn broke up with Rachel to go back to the Cheerio on “Glee.” Unfortunately, it would take a jump all the way up to the Top 10, which would involve trading both 1st rounders for the Pats to get there. It’s not like they don’t have the capital, it’s just that the price is too high. Stupid Oakland, forgetting how bad they’re supposed to be.
The last OLB who comes off the board in the 1st Round on every mock: Akeem Ayers, UCLA. 6-3, 254, 4.68.
Ayers is considered a late 1st rounder and has been projected to go to the Patriots, but I don’t see how he fits their needs as well as Cunningham already does. And since they got him at 53 last year, I’m just not seeing it, Lloyd.
“…And the officials have put out the red caution flag…”: Justin Houston, Georgia. 6-3, 267, 4.63.
He’s big, he’s strong, and he’s fast. He also allegedly flunked drug tests at the Indianapolis Kennel Show. Next…
A tempting pick except for the fact that he’s Johnny One-Note: Brooks Reed, Arizona. 6-3, 263, 4.66.
Reed comes across on tape and in interviews like he could be Green Bay’s Clay Mathews’ tag team partner. But he’s admitted that in college that he didn’t have to think. Didn’t have to read offenses. They literally didn’t ask him to do anything other than put his hand on the ground and go after the quarterback on every down. The Pats have never employed that guy, ever. Even with Derrick Burgess, a veteran, they asked him to do things he’d never done in his career. They’re certainly not going to train this kid when there’s Super Bowls to be won.
Same measurables as Reed who might be a hybrid OLB: Jabaal Sheard, Pitt. 6-3, 264, 4.66.
Maybe the Panthers had Sheard do more things than just pin his ears back and shoot gaps, I don’t know. All I do know is he was a traditional end in their 4-3, but there’s some suggestion he could stand up on the outside in a pro 3-4.
Guy I can’t see them NOT taking with a late round pick: Mark Herzlich, BC. 6-4, 244, 4.91.
Everyone knows the story by now. How Herzlich was a potentially high draft pick until he had to skip 2009 with bone cancer. He seems to have beaten it, but he’s lost a lot of his athleticism. He’s not as strong as he was before. He’s not as fast as he was. So there are plenty of reasons not to take him. But I can’t stop thinking of that part in “The Brady 6” where Steve Marucci says they forgot to measure Brady’s heart and it seems to me they’ll take a flyer on Herzlich. At least I hope so.
The Patriots will take: Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue. 6-4, 267, 4.67.
Getting back to the trust thing, I have to confess I’m reaching here. Most draft publications still list Kerrigan as a DE, but I think he’s your classic tweener. He ran the 2nd fastest 40 at the position in the Lucas Oil Olympics. Size- and speedwise he reminds you of Mike Vrabel. He’s got the Boilermakers pedigree that Rosevelt Colvin had. He’s also got the team captain/ vocal leader/ high motor thing the Pats always look for. So without a bone fide OLB available, I’m going to go with Kerrigan as a conversion guy. If they do want him, it’ll take at least the 17th pick. Let’s hope for an early run on quarterbacks, otherwise he won’t last that long.
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Patriots’ Draft Preview: 3-4 Outside Linebackers
http://boston.barstoolsports.com/random-thoughts/patriots-draft-preview-3-4-outside-linebackers/
Patriots current roster/ needs: People say it’s hard to tell what Bill Belichick looks for when he’s scouting outside linebackers for his 3-4. Well here’s his entire philosophy reduced to formula: “6-4-4-6.” That is, his ideal guy is 6-4 or bigger, 4.6 or faster. He likes big guys who are strong enough to set the edge against the run, quick enough to cover the flat or get into the backfield, and long enough to get a hand up and disrupt the QB’s passing lanes. The optimum OLB during his time in NE has been Willie McGinest, who could do all of the above.
And yet every single year, the football press manages to convince themselves that this year is different. That this is the year The Hooded One throws away the book he’s spent 35 years writing and goes after and “elite pass rush” specialist who can “get after the quarterback” and “apply pressure.” And every year I remind the world that in his 11 Patriots drafts and 11 free agency periods, he’s never once brought in a guy that fits that description. I run around like the scientist from a Syfy Original Movie, showing everyone the data, laying out my case, telling them to heed my warning. But they still… won’t… listen. Belichick will no doubt look for a guy who can (altogether now) apply pressure. But if he’s not a 5-tooler like McGinest or Mike Vrabel or Jermaine Cunningham, he won’t bother. He’d no sooner bring a 5-11 James Harrison-type and fit him into this defense than he’d outfit a pickup with three truck tires and one wheel off a Mini Cooper. Cunningham was steady and looked like he belonged. Rob Ninkovich was adequate. But they need help on the outside. The problem is there aren’t McGinests and Vrabels in this year’s crop. Or ever.
Positional overview: As you sift through draft reports, the hardest job is sorting out the 3-4 OLBs from all the other front 7 guys. They’re a species onto themselves. So a guy listed as a defensive end in one publication is an OLB on a website and then the trick is to try to project a college guy to move up to the pros then slide outside to a position he’s never played in his life. Since my and your relationship is built on trust, I’m not going to lie and act like I’m smart enough to do this. But I am smart enough to search other sites that break down the prospects into 3-4 OLBs and cross check them. So that’s what I’ve done. The ones I mention here are being looked at as 3-4 fits, no matter where they lined up in school.
Guaranteed first OLB taken: Von Miller, Texas A&M. 6-3, 246, 4.49.
Miller is the hands down class of this draft. The speedy, quick-twitch edge rusher that makes the cast of “NFL Playbook” lick themselves like dogs. Some early mocks had him going No. 1 overall, but no one has him getting back Buffalo at No. 3.
The perfect fit for the Patriots who’s completely out of their reach thanks to the Raiders who didn’t have the decency to suck enough last year: Robert Quinn, No. Carolina. 6-4, 265, 4.58.
Even after getting suspended for all of 2010 over some stupid NCAA rule no one cares about, Quinn is the guy teams who play a Pats-style 3-4 (as opposed to a Dick Lebeau type 3-4) drool over. He’s got Big Willie Style explosiveness, strength, size and agility. There hasn’t been this good a matchup involving a Quinn since Finn broke up with Rachel to go back to the Cheerio on “Glee.” Unfortunately, it would take a jump all the way up to the Top 10, which would involve trading both 1st rounders for the Pats to get there. It’s not like they don’t have the capital, it’s just that the price is too high. Stupid Oakland, forgetting how bad they’re supposed to be.
The last OLB who comes off the board in the 1st Round on every mock: Akeem Ayers, UCLA. 6-3, 254, 4.68.
Ayers is considered a late 1st rounder and has been projected to go to the Patriots, but I don’t see how he fits their needs as well as Cunningham already does. And since they got him at 53 last year, I’m just not seeing it, Lloyd.
“…And the officials have put out the red caution flag…”: Justin Houston, Georgia. 6-3, 267, 4.63.
He’s big, he’s strong, and he’s fast. He also allegedly flunked drug tests at the Indianapolis Kennel Show. Next…
A tempting pick except for the fact that he’s Johnny One-Note: Brooks Reed, Arizona. 6-3, 263, 4.66.
Reed comes across on tape and in interviews like he could be Green Bay’s Clay Mathews’ tag team partner. But he’s admitted that in college that he didn’t have to think. Didn’t have to read offenses. They literally didn’t ask him to do anything other than put his hand on the ground and go after the quarterback on every down. The Pats have never employed that guy, ever. Even with Derrick Burgess, a veteran, they asked him to do things he’d never done in his career. They’re certainly not going to train this kid when there’s Super Bowls to be won.
Same measurables as Reed who might be a hybrid OLB: Jabaal Sheard, Pitt. 6-3, 264, 4.66.
Maybe the Panthers had Sheard do more things than just pin his ears back and shoot gaps, I don’t know. All I do know is he was a traditional end in their 4-3, but there’s some suggestion he could stand up on the outside in a pro 3-4.
Guy I can’t see them NOT taking with a late round pick: Mark Herzlich, BC. 6-4, 244, 4.91.
Everyone knows the story by now. How Herzlich was a potentially high draft pick until he had to skip 2009 with bone cancer. He seems to have beaten it, but he’s lost a lot of his athleticism. He’s not as strong as he was before. He’s not as fast as he was. So there are plenty of reasons not to take him. But I can’t stop thinking of that part in “The Brady 6” where Steve Marucci says they forgot to measure Brady’s heart and it seems to me they’ll take a flyer on Herzlich. At least I hope so.
The Patriots will take: Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue. 6-4, 267, 4.67.
Getting back to the trust thing, I have to confess I’m reaching here. Most draft publications still list Kerrigan as a DE, but I think he’s your classic tweener. He ran the 2nd fastest 40 at the position in the Lucas Oil Olympics. Size- and speedwise he reminds you of Mike Vrabel. He’s got the Boilermakers pedigree that Rosevelt Colvin had. He’s also got the team captain/ vocal leader/ high motor thing the Pats always look for. So without a bone fide OLB available, I’m going to go with Kerrigan as a conversion guy. If they do want him, it’ll take at least the 17th pick. Let’s hope for an early run on quarterbacks, otherwise he won’t last that long.
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