cadmonkey
I have nothing useful to say....
I love this time of year. Jerry always kills it with his draft previews. I posted this in the "Jerry Appreciation Thread" as well. But I feel these can easily get their own threads to get some discussion going.
http://boston.barstoolsports.com/random-thoughts/patriots-draft-preview-running-backs-2/
Patriots Draft Preview: Running Backs
It’s that time of year again. The counters of beans and the chasers of ambulances might have nuked the entire rest of the NFL offseason, but the NFL Draft is still standing amidst the rubble. And this is good news around here because the Patriots are basically controlling the entire operation. They hold 3 of the first 33, 6 of the first 92, plus 3 in the final 3 rounds. So any team looking to move up or down the board is going to have to pay tribute to Bill Belichick like he’s Paulie in “Goodfellas.” And with the Pats coming off a 14 win year that saw major contributions from a boatload of 1st- and 2nd year players, another draft like the last couple could load them up for the rest of the Brady Epoch and beyond.
Between now and the Draft, I’m going to preview a different position a couple of times a week and predict whom they’re going to take. And I’ll stack my record of making these calls against anybody’s. Last year I was right about them taking Brandon Spikes and Aaron Hernandez. The year before I called Pat Chung and Darius Butler. So don’t bother quoting the national Draft experts to me. Last year Mel Kiper had them taking confirmed head case Dez Bryant in the 1st. I’m no Draft Guru. I don’t pretend to do 6-round mocks and I can’t speak extemporaneously about some 5th round safety out of Temple. But I can peer into Belichick’s dreamy eyes and see a window into his soul. Think of me as Horatio Sanz in “Step Brothers.” I don’t do Billy Joel. I do Billy Joel 80s doo wop. Anyway, going in no particular order, I’m going to start off with running backs.
Patriots current roster/ needs: This might be their hardest position to gauge in terms of need. Last year they put together a respectable running attack out of a guy that almost didn’t make the roster, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and made a folk hero out of Danny Woodhead, who got cut by the Jets in training camp. Kevin Faulk could come back from being IR’ed, but the rest of the unit, if they’re brought back, will be carrying the ball in one hand and a cane with tennis balls on the bottom in the other. So they could use some young talent here, but they’re such a pass-first offense, and they’ve been plenty successful enough with castoffs and spare parts, it’s likely they’ll pick someone up in the mid rounds, but it’s hard to see RB as a huge priority.
2011 positional overview: They couldn’t have picked a better year to be looking for a second-tier type running back because this year’s crop really doesn’t have anyone that’s projected as a blue-chip, can’t-miss, feature back. In fact, ever since consensus No. 1 Mark Ingram’s disappointing Pro Day, there’s been a school of thought that this could actually be the first draft ever that doesn’t have a RB selected in the 1st round. But the next level… complimentary backs who could play a role or be half of a 1-2 punch… runs deep.
The consensus best back there’s no consensus on: Ingram, Alabama. 5-9, 215, 4.62.
Months ago, Ingram was in the Top 10 of the early mocks. And there are still a lot of pundits who don’t see him making it past Miami at 15. But I’ve also seen him ranked as low as the No. 4-rated back and since that Bama Pro Day didn’t have anyone pinching their nipples with excitement, Round 2 is a distinct possibility. The knock on Ingram is he’s the guy who might get you 5 yards, but he’s not going to break tackles and make people chase him down from behind. He’s an acorn off of the Saban branch of the Belichick coaching tree so the Pats might like him, but I just don’t see him being rated high enough to take him high or dropping low enough for them to feel the value is there. Fun Fact: Mark Ingram, Sr was a WR for the NY Giants who’s now doing time for money laundering, which means that now 25% of America’s prison population are former Giants.
Backs who might go ahead of Ingram: Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech. 5-10 202 4.59 and Mikel LeShoure, Illinois. 6-0 230 4.56
Ingram is still the top back on most mocks, but either or both of these guys could jump ahead of him. They’ve got a lot of similarities, but the Sparknotes version of their scouting reports is: Williams is the better inside runner who’ll take on a tackler with a first contact hit, whereas LeShoure is more the slashing, one-cut downhill type runner who’ll fit a team with a zone running scheme. They have the potential to be feature backs, assuming the species isn’t already extinct (only 7 guys in the league had 300+ carries last year). But they’d be a risk anywhere before the middle of the 2nd.
Remember that “Mad Men” when they did the bra ad that said all women are either Jackies or Marilyns? Well if you want to badly stereotype running backs into small, elusive backs and big, power backs you could say they’re all either a Barry Sanders or a Jerome Bettis. And if you did, here’s how you would lump the 3rd-5th rounders in this one:
The Barrys:
Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma. 5-7, 199, 4.48
Jacquizz Rogers, Oregon St. 5-6, 192, 4.59
Noel Devine, West Virginia. 5-8, 179, 4.34
All have virtually identical reports. Good in space, quick moves, can play part time and special teams but questions about their durability. With Woodhead already around and Kevin Faulk coming back through the Grace of God, it’s unlikely the Pats are looking for another Lilliputian.
The Jeromes:
Daniel Thomas, Kansas St. 6-0, 230, 4.63.
He’s supposedly great at breaking tackles. I’m sure it’s true but what little video I’ve seen of him he was never in traffic. Just play after play of him going into the end zone untouched. There are also questions about how upright he runs which could reduce him to a chalk outline in the pros.
Allen Bradford, USC. 5-11, 235, 4.56.
You’d have to think a RB recruited to USC would be one of the best athletes in the country. But he wasn’t productive and struggled to keep the starters job.
Jamie Harper, Clemson. 5-11, 235, 4.54.
The general take on him is that for a big man, he makes people miss more than he takes on tacklers and he projects, like so many of these guys do, as someone who’ll be fine as part of a RB tandem, but not as an every down guy. Think Michael Bush.
A sleeper pick for the Pats who was really productive in a crap offense: Jordan Todman, UConn. 5-9, 203, 4.40.
This is an intriguing possibility for the Pats because his ex-coach Randy Edsall is a Belichick. The Pats have held an official pre-draft visit with Todman, as they did before they picked Darius Butler. He’s also got the leadership intangible the Pats look for, as evidenced by the fact that when Edsall screwed out of Storrs, he left it to Todman to explain it to the rest of the team. Working with 27 different (gawdawful) QB’s, in an offense they pulled out of Amos Alonzo Stagg’s waste basket, Todman still managed to carry the Huskies to the Fiesta Bowl.
Perfect Patriot: DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma. 6-0, 213, 4.37.
There’s not one RB in the Draft you can look at and be certain he’ll be a productive, 18 carry per game guy. But Murray is the best pass-catcher in the group so it’s not hard to imagine the Pats sending him in motion, lining him up in in the slot or splitting him out in the Z spot the way they do with every RB from Woodhead to Faulk to even BJGE. The Swiss Army offense they’re running puts a premium on versatility, and Murray has the most varied skill set in the Draft.
The Patriots will take: Murray.
His stock dropped a little after he was a non-factor in the Senior Bowl, so there’s a chance he could fall to them at 60 or even 74. Anyway, he’s an ideal fit.
<iframe title="YouTube video player" width="480" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/J6nOCef3Hic" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
http://boston.barstoolsports.com/random-thoughts/patriots-draft-preview-running-backs-2/
Patriots Draft Preview: Running Backs
It’s that time of year again. The counters of beans and the chasers of ambulances might have nuked the entire rest of the NFL offseason, but the NFL Draft is still standing amidst the rubble. And this is good news around here because the Patriots are basically controlling the entire operation. They hold 3 of the first 33, 6 of the first 92, plus 3 in the final 3 rounds. So any team looking to move up or down the board is going to have to pay tribute to Bill Belichick like he’s Paulie in “Goodfellas.” And with the Pats coming off a 14 win year that saw major contributions from a boatload of 1st- and 2nd year players, another draft like the last couple could load them up for the rest of the Brady Epoch and beyond.
Between now and the Draft, I’m going to preview a different position a couple of times a week and predict whom they’re going to take. And I’ll stack my record of making these calls against anybody’s. Last year I was right about them taking Brandon Spikes and Aaron Hernandez. The year before I called Pat Chung and Darius Butler. So don’t bother quoting the national Draft experts to me. Last year Mel Kiper had them taking confirmed head case Dez Bryant in the 1st. I’m no Draft Guru. I don’t pretend to do 6-round mocks and I can’t speak extemporaneously about some 5th round safety out of Temple. But I can peer into Belichick’s dreamy eyes and see a window into his soul. Think of me as Horatio Sanz in “Step Brothers.” I don’t do Billy Joel. I do Billy Joel 80s doo wop. Anyway, going in no particular order, I’m going to start off with running backs.
Patriots current roster/ needs: This might be their hardest position to gauge in terms of need. Last year they put together a respectable running attack out of a guy that almost didn’t make the roster, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and made a folk hero out of Danny Woodhead, who got cut by the Jets in training camp. Kevin Faulk could come back from being IR’ed, but the rest of the unit, if they’re brought back, will be carrying the ball in one hand and a cane with tennis balls on the bottom in the other. So they could use some young talent here, but they’re such a pass-first offense, and they’ve been plenty successful enough with castoffs and spare parts, it’s likely they’ll pick someone up in the mid rounds, but it’s hard to see RB as a huge priority.
2011 positional overview: They couldn’t have picked a better year to be looking for a second-tier type running back because this year’s crop really doesn’t have anyone that’s projected as a blue-chip, can’t-miss, feature back. In fact, ever since consensus No. 1 Mark Ingram’s disappointing Pro Day, there’s been a school of thought that this could actually be the first draft ever that doesn’t have a RB selected in the 1st round. But the next level… complimentary backs who could play a role or be half of a 1-2 punch… runs deep.
The consensus best back there’s no consensus on: Ingram, Alabama. 5-9, 215, 4.62.
Months ago, Ingram was in the Top 10 of the early mocks. And there are still a lot of pundits who don’t see him making it past Miami at 15. But I’ve also seen him ranked as low as the No. 4-rated back and since that Bama Pro Day didn’t have anyone pinching their nipples with excitement, Round 2 is a distinct possibility. The knock on Ingram is he’s the guy who might get you 5 yards, but he’s not going to break tackles and make people chase him down from behind. He’s an acorn off of the Saban branch of the Belichick coaching tree so the Pats might like him, but I just don’t see him being rated high enough to take him high or dropping low enough for them to feel the value is there. Fun Fact: Mark Ingram, Sr was a WR for the NY Giants who’s now doing time for money laundering, which means that now 25% of America’s prison population are former Giants.
Backs who might go ahead of Ingram: Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech. 5-10 202 4.59 and Mikel LeShoure, Illinois. 6-0 230 4.56
Ingram is still the top back on most mocks, but either or both of these guys could jump ahead of him. They’ve got a lot of similarities, but the Sparknotes version of their scouting reports is: Williams is the better inside runner who’ll take on a tackler with a first contact hit, whereas LeShoure is more the slashing, one-cut downhill type runner who’ll fit a team with a zone running scheme. They have the potential to be feature backs, assuming the species isn’t already extinct (only 7 guys in the league had 300+ carries last year). But they’d be a risk anywhere before the middle of the 2nd.
Remember that “Mad Men” when they did the bra ad that said all women are either Jackies or Marilyns? Well if you want to badly stereotype running backs into small, elusive backs and big, power backs you could say they’re all either a Barry Sanders or a Jerome Bettis. And if you did, here’s how you would lump the 3rd-5th rounders in this one:
The Barrys:
Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma. 5-7, 199, 4.48
Jacquizz Rogers, Oregon St. 5-6, 192, 4.59
Noel Devine, West Virginia. 5-8, 179, 4.34
All have virtually identical reports. Good in space, quick moves, can play part time and special teams but questions about their durability. With Woodhead already around and Kevin Faulk coming back through the Grace of God, it’s unlikely the Pats are looking for another Lilliputian.
The Jeromes:
Daniel Thomas, Kansas St. 6-0, 230, 4.63.
He’s supposedly great at breaking tackles. I’m sure it’s true but what little video I’ve seen of him he was never in traffic. Just play after play of him going into the end zone untouched. There are also questions about how upright he runs which could reduce him to a chalk outline in the pros.
Allen Bradford, USC. 5-11, 235, 4.56.
You’d have to think a RB recruited to USC would be one of the best athletes in the country. But he wasn’t productive and struggled to keep the starters job.
Jamie Harper, Clemson. 5-11, 235, 4.54.
The general take on him is that for a big man, he makes people miss more than he takes on tacklers and he projects, like so many of these guys do, as someone who’ll be fine as part of a RB tandem, but not as an every down guy. Think Michael Bush.
A sleeper pick for the Pats who was really productive in a crap offense: Jordan Todman, UConn. 5-9, 203, 4.40.
This is an intriguing possibility for the Pats because his ex-coach Randy Edsall is a Belichick. The Pats have held an official pre-draft visit with Todman, as they did before they picked Darius Butler. He’s also got the leadership intangible the Pats look for, as evidenced by the fact that when Edsall screwed out of Storrs, he left it to Todman to explain it to the rest of the team. Working with 27 different (gawdawful) QB’s, in an offense they pulled out of Amos Alonzo Stagg’s waste basket, Todman still managed to carry the Huskies to the Fiesta Bowl.
Perfect Patriot: DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma. 6-0, 213, 4.37.
There’s not one RB in the Draft you can look at and be certain he’ll be a productive, 18 carry per game guy. But Murray is the best pass-catcher in the group so it’s not hard to imagine the Pats sending him in motion, lining him up in in the slot or splitting him out in the Z spot the way they do with every RB from Woodhead to Faulk to even BJGE. The Swiss Army offense they’re running puts a premium on versatility, and Murray has the most varied skill set in the Draft.
The Patriots will take: Murray.
His stock dropped a little after he was a non-factor in the Senior Bowl, so there’s a chance he could fall to them at 60 or even 74. Anyway, he’s an ideal fit.
<iframe title="YouTube video player" width="480" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/J6nOCef3Hic" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
My only quibble is saying that Bradford was unproductive. He really played well when he got carries the past two years, putting up 5.8 and 7.2 ypc averages and roughly 700 and 800 yard seasons in a committee. He only got the ball about 110 times each of the last two years, but he improved remarkably this year in running between the tackles and following his blockers. He runs people over, is an absolute load to bring down at 240 pounds, and has decent hands despite only 14 career receptions. He's one of my favorite late round guys, because it seems to me like he's finally maturing as a person and a player, and the best is yet to come.
