Realistic Cap Dork Shit involving Trades and Dead Cap Numbers for Rebuild

TommyD420

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So I've been saying 'trade everyone burn it down' etc etc, but in the NFL there is the reality of the salary cap (which isn't crap), and the realities of it will determine what moves a team can make going forward.

I just said 'Trade everyone 30+' on the team in another thread, but in reality, that's a lot easier said than done. The Patriots will be on the hook for the dead cap numbers going forward, but with ~$97 million in space for next year, it might not be the end of the world. I am assuming the Patriots won't be signing any free agents this offseason, because besides the fact you're not going to get any young talent in FA probably, who the hell is going to want to come here? (which is my reasoning for the 3rd round comp picks) The 'Over 30s' with significant dead cap hits in a trade are:

-Matt Judon ($25 million 2023, 10 million 2024), obviously he's in IR, and even if you could trade him (and I'm not sure you can), you're not going to get any return for him. Healthy and playing well, you might get a 3rd round pick for him, after this season if healthy, that value is going to be less. In reality, if he comes back and plays well next year, you might be able to score a better pick for the lesser cap hit, but at that point, you may as well let him ride it out and take the 3rd round comp pick. Or even re-sign him if he plays really well, although I doubt he'd want to stick around for a multi-year rebuild. Too bad too, I love this player.

-Hunter Henry (he's 29, but close enough) will have a pro-rated dead cap hit of $14.5 million. Again, I'm not sure what you'd get in a trade, unless you get a really desperate team willing to give up a 2nd for him, you're not going to get better than a 5th rounder - again, better off letting him ride it out and get the 3rd/4th round comp.

-Trent Brown ($5,5 million) seems like a really good candidate for a trade. You could potentially get a day 2 pick for him, minimal dead cap. I feel like if you let him ride out the season, he's a candidate for retirement, so you may end up with nothing - or he signs a really cheap contract with a contender, and you end up with a 7th round comp if you're lucky

- David Andrews ($8.1 million 2023, 1.9 million 2024) - Might want to keep him for another year, although if some team calls offering a 3rd or 4th, you'd have to think about it. He's a definite trade possibility in League Year 2024 however.

- Jon Jones ($13 million 2023, $7.5 million 2024) - I think this would be the best possible chance for a premium day 2 draft pick, and he's worth eating the cap hit for. High level CBs are always in demand

The good news with the salaries, is nobody with any significant cap hit is signed past 2024, so money drains aren't going to be an issue. The issue is, there's no one here to trade that's worth trading, where you could reasonably expect a similar talent in a replacement through the draft. Now, that's not the only reason to accumulate draft picks, the more ammo you have, the more aggressive you can be in trading up. As it stands now, the Patriots only have 8 picks next year (2 sixths), and they'll need to have a lot more than that in the gas tank, assuming they need to trade up for the #1 overall pick (although they may not need to).

Juju Smith Schuster has a dead cap of $16 million this year, $12.5 next year, however they have an out after 2024 for a dead cap of just under $3 million, so he's likely going to be sticking around.
I don't think Mac Jones is tradeable right now, but if you could, his cap hit for this year is only $9 million, and next year is $5 million. With all that cap space, it's certainly an acceptable dead cap number.

I think the play here is to accumulate as much draft capital as you can, and while trades during the season might not happen, you may see a flurry of activity before the draft - and none of these cap hits are deal-breaking, considering I don't expect 2024 to be much better than 2023. The other thing to consider here is pending re-signs (like a Kyle Dugger for example, or a Mike Onwenu). Would those players even want to stay here, or would you actually want to keep them (Onwenu on that last point, that guy's fallen off a cliff).

Happy to hear your thoughts, assuming we can all reasonably agree that a raze and reset is in order here. This isn't a thread for Brady > BB, or Everything is Matt Patricia's fault, or anything like that, and you will be roundly mocked if you try it. This is a realistically 'what can be done to fix it' thread. I think it's fair to assume that Belichick will be gone if not this year than next year, when factoring in what to do.

Let's talk about it. What does a rebuild look like for you?
 
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firstly,who do people want to entertain as hc,oc,dc etc? i am not convinced there's a need to move on but i am fine with considering the possibilities. and i like the line eric kuselias had that he said his parents taught him. "you can complain but you'd better have a solution."
 
firstly,who do people want to entertain as hc,oc,dc etc? i am not convinced there's a need to move on but i am fine with considering the possibilities. and i like the line eric kuselias had that he said his parents taught him. "you can complain but you'd better have a solution."
Well we might not have a choice on that front, if they've already given Jerod Mayo the job. We'll see how he does, I suppose.

Now, I assume he'll have his own guys he wants to bring in. when Belichick leaves, I don't expect he'd keep the entire staff the same. As weird as it would be, I'd hate to lose Steve Belichick, I think the defense going forward will need him - for as much as he's a 'muh nepotism' bogeyman for the media (despite the fact that any coach who's been in the league more than 5 minutes puts their kid on the staff...like, forever in the history of the league) - I think he's done an absolutely phenomenal job.

Bolded part is what this thread is about.
 
firstly,who do people want to entertain as hc,oc,dc etc? i am not convinced there's a need to move on but i am fine with considering the possibilities. and i like the line eric kuselias had that he said his parents taught him. "you can complain but you'd better have a solution."
I’d rather BB stay, but force him into investing more draft picks on the offense.
 
I would hire the Niners Director of player personnel and give him the GM job. For head coach we have to find an offensive minded, innovative, young guy in the mold of a Mike McDaniel.
 
I’d rather BB stay, but force him into investing more draft picks on the offense.
As soon as you say 'BB stays but force him', you gotta cut him loose. This isn't Johnny Runningbackscoach, who's just going to say 'yes, Mr. Kraft.'.
 
I would hire the Niners Director of player personnel and give him the GM job. For head coach we have to find an offensive minded, innovative, young guy in the mold of a Mike McDaniel.
Because the Niners are just going to let him walk. Sure. :coffee:

Serious replies in this thread only, thank you.
 
Because the Niners are just going to let him walk. Sure. :coffee:

Serious replies in this thread only, thank you.
It would be a promotion so they would have to let him go, unless they want to name him their GM.
 
It would be a promotion so they would have to let him go, unless they want to name him their GM.
You have a dozen other threads you can shit up with your Sports Hub talk radio nonsense. Please leave this one alone. Thank you in advance.
 
As soon as you say 'BB stays but force him', you gotta cut him loose. This isn't Johnny Runningbackscoach, who's just going to say 'yes, Mr. Kraft.'.
He already knows that Mac isn’t the answer, so, that much is obvious.

But, he does have an issue about legit WR’s…
 
You have a dozen other threads you can shit up with your Sports Hub talk radio nonsense. Please leave this one alone. Thank you in advance.
What’s your problem?
 
You tank this season to get the QB of your choice. Whomever that may be. But waaaaaay before that, you stop BB from doing anything without prior approval. When you are hopefully 1-7 by the trade deadline, you do not make moves to improve the team. None, zero nada. You trade who you can and play Zappe or Cunningham just because you need someone at QB. Be plenty of 7 and 10 point games and that's fine by me. Then pray Chicago and others start winning.

You get to play the lets get as many wins as we can AFTER they get a stud QB that can win them some games.
 
You tank this season to get the QB of your choice. Whomever that may be. But waaaaaay before that, you stop BB from doing anything without prior approval. When you are hopefully 1-7 by the trade deadline, you do not make moves to improve the team. None, zero nada. You trade who you can and play Zappe or Cunningham just because you need someone at QB. Be plenty of 7 and 10 point games and that's fine by me. Then pray Chicago and others start winning.

You get to play the lets get as many wins as we can AFTER they get a stud QB that can win them some games.
Trading older players for picks isn’t a bad idea.
 
So I've been saying 'trade everyone burn it down' etc etc, but in the NFL there is the reality of the salary cap (which isn't crap), and the realities of it will determine what moves a team can make going forward.

I just said 'Trade everyone 30+' on the team in another thread, but in reality, that's a lot easier said than done. The Patriots will be on the hook for the dead cap numbers going forward, but with ~$97 million in space for next year, it might not be the end of the world. I am assuming the Patriots won't be signing any free agents this offseason, because besides the fact you're not going to get any young talent in FA probably, who the hell is going to want to come here? (which is my reasoning for the 3rd round comp picks) The 'Over 30s' with significant dead cap hits in a trade are:

-Matt Judon ($25 million 2023, 10 million 2024), obviously he's in IR, and even if you could trade him (and I'm not sure you can), you're not going to get any return for him. Healthy and playing well, you might get a 3rd round pick for him, after this season if healthy, that value is going to be less. In reality, if he comes back and plays well next year, you might be able to score a better pick for the lesser cap hit, but at that point, you may as well let him ride it out and take the 3rd round comp pick. Or even re-sign him if he plays really well, although I doubt he'd want to stick around for a multi-year rebuild. Too bad too, I love this player.

-Hunter Henry (he's 29, but close enough) will have a pro-rated dead cap hit of $14.5 million. Again, I'm not sure what you'd get in a trade, unless you get a really desperate team willing to give up a 2nd for him, you're not going to get better than a 5th rounder - again, better off letting him ride it out and get the 3rd/4th round comp.

-Trent Brown ($5,5 million) seems like a really good candidate for a trade. You could potentially get a day 2 pick for him, minimal dead cap. I feel like if you let him ride out the season, he's a candidate for retirement, so you may end up with nothing - or he signs a really cheap contract with a contender, and you end up with a 7th round comp if you're lucky

- David Andrews ($8.1 million 2023, 1.9 million 2024) - Might want to keep him for another year, although if some team calls offering a 3rd or 4th, you'd have to think about it. He's a definite trade possibility in League Year 2024 however.

- Jon Jones ($13 million 2023, $7.5 million 2024) - I think this would be the best possible chance for a premium day 2 draft pick, and he's worth eating the cap hit for. High level CBs are always in demand

The good news with the salaries, is nobody with any significant cap hit is signed past 2024, so money drains aren't going to be an issue. The issue is, there's no one here to trade that's worth trading, where you could reasonably expect a similar talent in a replacement through the draft. Now, that's not the only reason to accumulate draft picks, the more ammo you have, the more aggressive you can be in trading up. As it stands now, the Patriots only have 8 picks next year (2 sixths), and they'll need to have a lot more than that in the gas tank, assuming they need to trade up for the #1 overall pick (although they may not need to).

Juju Smith Schuster has a dead cap of $16 million this year, $12.5 next year, however they have an out after 2024 for a dead cap of just under $3 million, so he's likely going to be sticking around.
I don't think Mac Jones is tradeable right now, but if you could, his cap hit for this year is only $9 million, and next year is $5 million. With all that cap space, it's certainly an acceptable dead cap number.

I think the play here is to accumulate as much draft capital as you can, and while trades during the season might not happen, you may see a flurry of activity before the draft - and none of these cap hits are deal-breaking, considering I don't expect 2024 to be much better than 2023. The other thing to consider here is pending re-signs (like a Kyle Dugger for example, or a Mike Onwenu). Would those players even want to stay here, or would you actually want to keep them (Onwenu on that last point, that guy's fallen off a cliff).

Happy to hear your thoughts, assuming we can all reasonably agree that a raze and reset is in order here. This isn't a thread for Brady > BB, or Everything is Matt Patricia's fault, or anything like that, and you will be roundly mocked if you try it. This is a realistically 'what can be done to fix it' thread. I think it's fair to assume that Belichick will be gone if not this year than next year, when factoring in what to do.

Let's talk about it. What does a rebuild look like for you?
Your premise about getting comp picks is faulty. With all the cap room, it's very unlikely that the Pats get any comp picks as they'll be net bringing in FA value.
 
Your premise about getting comp picks is faulty. With all the cap room, it's very unlikely that the Pats get any comp picks as they'll be net bringing in FA value.

How much cap space can be tossed into the next year? Get the comps this year, get your stud QB, maybe even a wideout or tackle, then judiciously sign a couple of players.
 
It would be a promotion so they would have to let him go, unless they want to name him their GM.
Mazz is correct here. they guy might not want to leave San Fran for NE even with a promotion, so who knows

just as a mental exercise, you offer someone the GM job and they can hire their own coach (so BB retires/fired, just an exercise here, don't get snippy with me :) ) Kraft we believe has a rep as a good/great owner. he certainly cares about winning we know that. So how does NE look to outsiders now vs. the dynasty years?
how would a perspective new GM look at the roster vs. how Pats fans who post on a message board look at the roster?

For the long timers, were you as shocked as I was the day you heard Bill Parcells was going to be the Pat's coach? I was shocked. a big name coach coming to NE?

time for another beer... :cool:
 
You tank this season to get the QB of your choice. Whomever that may be. But waaaaaay before that, you stop BB from doing anything without prior approval. When you are hopefully 1-7 by the trade deadline, you do not make moves to improve the team. None, zero nada. You trade who you can and play Zappe or Cunningham just because you need someone at QB. Be plenty of 7 and 10 point games and that's fine by me. Then pray Chicago and others start winning.

You get to play the lets get as many wins as we can AFTER they get a stud QB that can win them some games.
Right, and I think we're on the same page - the only issue I ran into is who you can actually trade, and for what. The best asset, Judon, is off the table. And the other issue is, getting a ton of 6th and 7th round picks for flotsam and jetsam isn't really going to help the draft capital that much.
 
Your premise about getting comp picks is faulty. With all the cap room, it's very unlikely that the Pats get any comp picks as they'll be net bringing in FA value.
Why would you sign FAs in their 30s if you're trying to start over?

If you can get a 26 year old stud on a 5-year deal, then sure. First, the player is going to have to want to come here, and second that's a fair enough tradeoff for losing a free agent. Also bear in mind, everyone I listed in the OP is a FA in 2024. The original play was for this and next year to be the run - all the contracts are up in 2024 of any note. So we're not getting any comp picks this year.
 
Mazz is correct here. they guy might not want to leave San Fran for NE even with a promotion, so who knows

just as a mental exercise, you offer someone the GM job and they can hire their own coach (so BB retires/fired, just an exercise here, don't get snippy with me :) ) Kraft we believe has a rep as a good/great owner. he certainly cares about winning we know that. So how does NE look to outsiders now vs. the dynasty years?
how would a perspective new GM look at the roster vs. how Pats fans who post on a message board look at the roster?

For the long timers, were you as shocked as I was the day you heard Bill Parcells was going to be the Pat's coach? I was shocked. a big name coach coming to NE?

time for another beer... :cool:
The assumption is a) RJ Gillen wants to come here and 2) that the 49ers wouldn't offer him a pay bump to stay.

The person who was DPP, Ran Carthon, the guy who actually built the current roster, was hired as the GM of the Titans at the start of this year. That's what makes the 'Hire the DPP from the 49ers as GM' a talk radio fantasy, and not a reality.

On your Bob Kraft point, I believe he wants to win - but on the other hand, I believe he's gotten too personally involved with the players (specifically Brady, but there have been others) over the last few years, and it has clouded his perception as owner, and conversely, gave too much power to Bill Belichick to run the operation himself without any oversight, and it's caused many of the issues we see today. Time for Jonathan to take over, and let's see what he can do. Better? Worse? We don't know.

In terms of how the Patriots have been perceived from the outside, I'd say 345 Park Avenue, in their quest for 'parity', have used their media arm to make sure the Patriots look like lucky cheaters and frauds, and the local media so hates that Belichick doesn't talk to them, that they gladly carry that mail as well. I think it will be quite difficult to attract not only player free agents, but new coaches - unless Jerod Mayo is some master recruiter. I don't know if he is or not.

A reminder also that this was Bob Kraft 30 years ago that hired Bill Parcells.
 
How much cap space can be tossed into the next year? Get the comps this year, get your stud QB, maybe even a wideout or tackle, then judiciously sign a couple of players.
There aren't really any comps for this year, outside of Hunter Henry. All the cap space can be rolled over so long as they meet the floor threshold which they should.

FAs after this year:


Outside of Henry, no one's signing any sort of large deal. I guess maybe Trent Brown.
 
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