Rebuilding The Patriots For 2021 And Beyond

Share this page

I wouldn't mind Mariota as a bridge for a year. No rookie is coming in and starting right away so we need a bridge.
A veteran can at least read defenses to some degree and that's something every rookie has to learn.
 
foobahl said:
yes it is subscription only
Click to expand...
The Patriots will get down to work on an integral offseason about six weeks from now as they rebuild their roster with the intention of returning to the playoffs.


The 2021 NFL league year begins March 17, opening the floodgates on free agency, trades and cap casualties that will surely stoke an epic swing of roster movement across the league.


The Patriots are projected to have about $58.5 million in cap space, the fourth-most in the league and more than twice as much as 26 teams. So they’ll have a disproportionate spending advantage, which will be necessary as they search for impact players at several positions.


I constructed a shopping list of their top 25 potential veteran acquisitions — most of whom are set to become unrestricted free agents, though there are a few possible trade targets and projected cap casualties also included.


This is not a straight-up ranking of the 25 best players. Rather, it’s the 25 best fits for the Patriots.


While talent is important, certain players fell down or completely off the list because they’re projected to net massive contracts, and the Patriots won’t be in the position to massively overpay for a pass rusher — especially when so many tend to make the most out of their contract year, which is always a concern — or wide receiver at the expense of several other needs. You’ll notice wideouts such as Allen Robinson, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chris Godwin aren’t on the list, not because they aren’t better than the players who are on the list but because I don’t believe it’s realistic for the Patriots to offer them contracts in excess of $15 million annually.


Extra consideration was given to positions of greater need: quarterback, tight end, wide receiver, defensive line and linebacker. Players are listed by overall ranking, and their positional ranking on this list is displayed in parentheses.


1. Hunter Henry​

No. 1 overall tight end, LA Chargers
The Patriots can’t go a third consecutive season with the league’s worst production at tight end. I’m not close to writing off Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene after COVID wiped out their offseason and injuries shortened their rookie year, but the Patriots need more of a sure thing atop the depth chart while the 2020 third-rounders develop into their roles.
Henry has never played a full 16-game regular season due to injuries, so buyer beware here. With a shrinking salary cap and those durability issues, Henry is probably going to garner something comparable to Austin Hooper’s four-year, $42 million deal from a season ago. That’d absolutely be worth it for the Patriots. If another team is willing to pay Henry in the $14-15 million range like George Kittle and Travis Kelce, the Patriots might want to shift gears.

2. J.J. Watt​

No. 1 overall defensive lineman, Houston
I’m sure I’ll be in the minority because Watt is no longer a Defensive Player of the Year candidate and he missed at least half the season in 2016, 2017 and 2019. But I strongly believe Watt and Bill Belichick would be a match made in football heaven. Watt lives, eats, breathes, drinks and bathes in football, and he has been productive enough while playing 16 games in two of his last three seasons. If Belichick can get him in for a meeting, it’s hard not to envision a scenario like Roman Phifer in 2001 or Rodney Harrison in 2003, when the coach overwhelmingly won them over.
The Texans will either trade or release Watt, who is on the books for $17.5 million next season. A team like the Jaguars or Jets could trade for that contract and knock down the cap hit with an extension, but that still seems like a long shot. Rather, the Patriots should wait for him to be released and see if they can lure in Watt for two years and $20 million, as $10 million annually is the baseline for premium defensive tackles. If Watt shines in the New England spotlight, the league would notice, and it’d benefit future recruiting pitches for a younger crop of players who were in diapers or elementary school when Phifer and Harrison hopped onboard.

3. Lavonte David​

No. 1 overall linebacker, Tampa
Coming off a five-year, $50.25 million pact, the 31-year-old is at an interesting point when it comes to contract negotiations. He is the best linebacker on the market, but it’s a deep group. Would he leave Tampa after nine seasons? Probably not unless there’s a substantially higher bidder.
On one hand, the Patriots’ defensive rebuild shouldn’t center around two stars on the wrong side of 30. On the other, they need leadership and production in the front seven as they usher in Chase Winovich, Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings on the edge. If the Patriots can somehow get Watt and David while convincing Dont’a Hightower to return, the defense would be considerably better, giving the offense a fighting chance to win games if they aren’t perfect.

​

4. Dalvin Tomlinson​

No. 2 overall defensive lineman, NY Giants
The best run stopper on the market, Tomlinson has more long-term upside than Watt, but his market is unpredictable. Really good defensive tackles eclipse $15 million annually, but those players have more pass-rush pop than Tomlinson. And again, with a shrinking salary cap, how many teams are willing to break the bank for an early-down defensive tackle? If Tomlinson is closer to the $10 million mark, he’s worth it. If he cashes in as a premier defensive tackle on the open market, it’s better to let him go.

5. Curtis Samuel​


No. 1 overall wide receiver, Carolina
With a better offensive system in 2020, Samuel had his best season with 77 catches and 851 yards along with three touchdowns, and he added 200 rushing yards and two scores. He is only 24, so teams might be willing to pay Samuel more for projected potential than past production. If that’s the case, he could approach $12 million annually.
Samuel’s style is increasingly coveted with smart offenses that will find all sorts of ways to get the ball into a receiver’s hands. For a creative coordinator like Josh McDaniels, he can be a matchup-based weapon and screams of a Patriots type of player.

6. Jonnu Smith​

No. 2 overall tight end, Tennessee
The 2017 third-rounder — taken after the Patriots selected Derek Rivers and Antonio Garcia — would be a solid consolation prize if the Patriots don’t land Henry. He had career highs of 41 catches, 448 yards and eight touchdowns this season, which isn’t eye-popping production but at least shows a steady trend in a positive direction. He’ll turn 26 in August and should command about $8-10 million annually.

7. Jayon Brown​

No. 2 overall linebacker, Tennessee
Another Titans mid-round success story, Brown is a three-down linebacker who is capable in coverage and averaged 101 tackles from 2018-19 before missing six games this season. Brown would be a longer-term answer than David, so he could be in the $11 million-per-year neighborhood.

8. Jimmy Garoppolo​


No. 1 overall quarterback, San Francisco
Whether the 49ers are truly sticking by Garoppolo or are just trying to drum up trade leverage, his availability is still worth exploring. Garoppolo is the best veteran quarterback for the Patriots, assuming they have no chance at trading for Houston’s Deshaun Watson or Philadelphia’s Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott costs around $35 million annually. The Patriots aren’t a serious suitor for Wentz, according to a source.
Garoppolo’s durability is undeniably an issue, but here’s the attractive scenario: If the 49ers are serious about dumping his salary, he won’t be nearly as sought after as Matthew Stafford and should probably be available for a Saturday draft pick. Acquiring his contract also makes sense because he is only on the books for $25.5 million in 2021 and $25.6 million in 2022, and the Patriots could get out of the deal after a season if necessary. If they acquire Garoppolo, the Patriots could pair him with enough veteran help to win now while also trading into the top 10 for the quarterback of the future. It’d be the perfect blend of taking care of the present and future.

9. Joe Thuney​

No. 1 overall offensive lineman, New England
The Patriots’ most valuable offensive player last season, Thuney would be higher on this list if they didn’t have such an incredible track record for drafting and developing interior linemen. Just a guess, but Thuney is probably looking for $14 million annually, or $70 million over five years, to set the left guard market. It’s unclear what the Patriots’ best offer has been, but they’ve never been close to an agreement.

10. Sheldon Rankins​

No. 3 overall defensive lineman, New Orleans
Rankins has been very good when healthy, but the injury risk is real after missing 10 games over the past two seasons. The Patriots don’t want to deal with another Beau Allen situation (he never played after signing last offseason) as they attempt to improve their run defense. But on a one-year, incentive-laden deal that tops out between $5-8 million, Rankins would be a solid option.
 

11. Nelson Agholor​

No. 2 overall wide receiver, Las Vegas
The ever-competitive Agholor had five frustrating seasons with the Eagles, only signed with the Raiders for $1,047,500 and caught 48 passes for career highs of 896 yards, eight touchdowns and 18.7 yards per catch. The 2015 first-round pick finally showed his capabilities and should turn that into $8-10 million annually. Agholor can play in the slot and has the athleticism to get over the top of the defense.

12. Shelby Harris​

No. 4 overall defensive lineman, Denver
A very solid run-stuffing defensive tackle, Harris turns 30 in August and only played for $3.5 million last season. The Patriots can still afford to bring in Harris along with Watt or Tomlinson while also keeping Lawrence Guy or Adam Butler, and their run defense would be in much better shape.

13. Matt Milano​

No. 3 overall linebacker, Buffalo
The Bills drafted Milano with the pick the Patriots sent over when they signed restricted free agent running back Mike Gillislee in 2017. In seven games against the Pats, the Boston College product has 40 tackles, including two for loss, one sack, two QB hits and four pass breakups. Milano has missed nine games over the past three seasons, so there’s a minor injury concern. But if the Patriots miss out on David and Brown, the familiar Milano would be a nice fit, probably at a slightly lesser cost than Brown. If the Patriots miss on all three linebackers, Denzel Perryman of the Chargers should be next on the list.

14. Justin Houston​

No. 1 overall edge rusher, Indianapolis
The 32-year-old is no longer an elite pass rusher, but he still had 19 sacks while earning $23 million over his last two seasons with the Colts and wouldn’t be anywhere near as expensive as the high-end rushers on the market. He might still fetch upwards of $10 million per year, but Houston would be an upgrade over John Simon, a leader for Winovich, Uche and Jennings and someone who could take pressure off the youngsters on early downs.
Even on a short cap, some of the best edge rushers should still command at least $15 million annually. That group includes Yannick Ngakoue, Matt Judon, Shaq Barrett, Bud Dupree, Trey Hendrickson, Carl Lawson, Leonard Floyd, Romeo Okwara and Haason Reddick. If the market is oversaturated and the price comes down on any of them, sure, adjust the plan. But beware because Hendrickson, Floyd, Okwara and Reddick all had career seasons in their contract year — an annual concern for pass rushers — while Judon and Lawson have never had a 10-sack season and Dupree has only had one. Not saying they won’t continue to ascend; just pointing toward the reasons to be budget-conscious with a veteran like Houston.

15. Corey Davis​

No. 3 overall wide receiver, Tennessee
If the contracts were equal, I’d adjust the rankings and put Davis over Agholor, but I have a feeling Davis could approach $14 million annually because of his production in the post-Marcus Mariota era in Tennessee. Teams have finally gotten a better glimpse of why Davis was the No. 5 pick in 2017 — not that he’s yet lived up to that draft slot but because of the talent that got him there. He matched a career high with 65 catches this season and had career bests of 984 yards and five touchdowns.

16. Reggie Ragland​

No. 4 overall linebacker, Detroit
Ragland is here under the assumption the Patriots sign David, Brown or Milano. Otherwise, this spot would be for Perryman, as Ragland should not be viewed as an automatic upgrade over Ja’Whaun Bentley. The former Alabama star and second-round pick had a tough start to his career with a torn ACL as a rookie then a trade from Buffalo to Kansas City in his second season, but he played well enough as a rotational starter over three seasons with the Chiefs and this season with the Lions. Belichick should have plenty of intel from Nick Saban and Matt Patricia. Ragland, who intercepted Tom Brady in the end zone in the AFC Championship Game after the 2018 season, played for less than $1 million in Detroit.

17. Ryan Kerrigan​

No. 2 overall edge rusher, Washington
Kerrigan always seemed like a Patriots type of player. He turns 33 in August and is further on the downside of his career than Houston, compiling just 11 sacks over his last two seasons. But again, the Patriots would benefit from a veteran on the edge to rotate with the younger generation.

18. Lawrence Guy​

No. 5 overall defensive lineman, New England
Guy, who turns 31 in March, is important to retain, but the Patriots should be cautious of again utilizing him as their No. 1 defensive tackle. He suffered an array of injuries last season and missed games for the first time since 2014. Guy probably wouldn’t cost more than $4 million per year and is still plenty productive enough to make that a bargain price.

19. Marvin Jones​

No. 4 overall wide receiver, Detroit
Jones, who turns 31 in March, is coming off a five-year, $40 million contract and is still productive enough to be a quality No. 2 receiver. He caught 76 passes for 978 yards and nine touchdowns this season. Because he plays on the boundary, Jones might be a better complement to Samuel, Agholor or Davis.

​

 

20. Dak Prescott​


No. 2 overall quarterback, Dallas
OK, this is a strange ranking for the best quarterback in free agency, but Prescott is this low due to the likelihood that he’ll land about $35 million per year. And while I considered keeping Prescott off the list due to the reported likelihood the Cowboys would again use the franchise tag on him, I can’t discount the possibility the Cowboys screw this up.
Prescott may very well be worth the $35 million annual expense. I just don’t know if the Patriots will be interested in that type of price tag while a team like the Colts — closer to contending and equipped with a projected $65 million in cap space — should be more eager to meet that number.
Let’s look at it another way, though. Prescott, who turns 28 in July, has the prototypical size and athleticism for the league’s current landscape at the position and the demands of playing in New England’s colder months, and he clearly has the talent. If the Patriots unequivocally view Prescott as a franchise quarterback and are wary of their ability to trade up in the draft for one of the top four prospects, it’d make sense to add Prescott and some offensive pieces then build the defense through the draft. They’ve got the resources to go that route.

21. David Andrews​

No. 2 overall offensive lineman, New England
Andrews was a borderline Pro Bowler this season, and the Patriots should work hard to retain him if they lose Thuney. While it’d be great to get the band back together and re-sign both to keep the strength of their team intact, it’d be a challenge to improve elsewhere by devoting such resources to the line. Ten centers make at least $10 million per year. Another four make at least $9 million annually. Another three are at least $8 million. Andrews should be somewhere in that range, though his market could be hurt in a cap-strapped year with teams potentially devoting their limited resources to higher-profile positions.

22. Adam Butler​

No. 6 overall defensive lineman, New England
Butler easily had the best season of his career, but the going rate for his position — an interior defensive lineman with pass-rushing ability — starts at $10 million per year. Is Butler in that category? It remains to be seen. It’d be hard for the Patriots to keep Butler for that price, but they could conceivably do it if they get Harris and Guy on budget-conscious deals and Rankins is cheaper than expected.

23. Zach Ertz​

No. 3 overall tight end, Philadelphia
The 30-year-old is shaping up to be a cap casualty for the Eagles, and he’d be higher on this list if it weren’t for some of the injury concerns. Still, he’s only a year removed from catching 88 passes and two years removed from the best season of his career (116 receptions, 1,163 yards, eight touchdowns). Ertz is essentially a receiver, so he’d be a solid pickup if the Patriots can’t get Henry, Smith, Samuel, Davis or Agholor. Ertz would probably cost about $8 million per year, similar to Jimmy Graham.

24. Ryan Fitzpatrick​

No. 3 overall quarterback, Miami
The 38-year-old is coming off a two-year, $11 million contract with the Dolphins. Over that time, he completed 64.2 percent of his passes and averaged 234.2 yards per game with 33 touchdowns to 21 interceptions and an 89.0 passer rating. Fitzpatrick is the perfect stopgap as a veteran who shouldn’t cost more than $10 million per year and is capable enough to keep the offense in games if he’s got enough help around him. Whether the Patriots draft their future quarterback now or in 2022, they can use Fitzpatrick as a placeholder while building up the roster elsewhere.

25. Teddy Bridgewater​

No. 4 overall quarterback, Carolina
The 2014 first-rounder put up similar numbers to Fitzpatrick but would come with double the salary if the Panthers trade him, which is the reason for the lower ranking. Bridgewater completed 69.1 percent of his passes for 3,733 yards, 15 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and a 92.1 passer rating in 15 starts in his first season with the Panthers. The 28-year-old is more accurate and takes better care of the ball than Fitzpatrick. If the Patriots traded for Bridgewater, they’d owe him $18 million in 2021, including $10 million guaranteed, and a non-guaranteed $21 million in 2022. The 2015 Pro Bowler has shown flashes of being a pretty good starter, but if the Panthers go in another direction, Bridgewater could join the fourth team of his career.
 
chevss454 said:

20. Dak Prescott​


No. 2 overall quarterback, Dallas
OK, this is a strange ranking for the best quarterback in free agency, but Prescott is this low due to the likelihood that he’ll land about $35 million per year. And while I considered keeping Prescott off the list due to the reported likelihood the Cowboys would again use the franchise tag on him, I can’t discount the possibility the Cowboys screw this up.
Prescott may very well be worth the $35 million annual expense. I just don’t know if the Patriots will be interested in that type of price tag while a team like the Colts — closer to contending and equipped with a projected $65 million in cap space — should be more eager to meet that number.
Let’s look at it another way, though. Prescott, who turns 28 in July, has the prototypical size and athleticism for the league’s current landscape at the position and the demands of playing in New England’s colder months, and he clearly has the talent. If the Patriots unequivocally view Prescott as a franchise quarterback and are wary of their ability to trade up in the draft for one of the top four prospects, it’d make sense to add Prescott and some offensive pieces then build the defense through the draft. They’ve got the resources to go that route.

21. David Andrews​

No. 2 overall offensive lineman, New England
Andrews was a borderline Pro Bowler this season, and the Patriots should work hard to retain him if they lose Thuney. While it’d be great to get the band back together and re-sign both to keep the strength of their team intact, it’d be a challenge to improve elsewhere by devoting such resources to the line. Ten centers make at least $10 million per year. Another four make at least $9 million annually. Another three are at least $8 million. Andrews should be somewhere in that range, though his market could be hurt in a cap-strapped year with teams potentially devoting their limited resources to higher-profile positions.

22. Adam Butler​

No. 6 overall defensive lineman, New England
Butler easily had the best season of his career, but the going rate for his position — an interior defensive lineman with pass-rushing ability — starts at $10 million per year. Is Butler in that category? It remains to be seen. It’d be hard for the Patriots to keep Butler for that price, but they could conceivably do it if they get Harris and Guy on budget-conscious deals and Rankins is cheaper than expected.

23. Zach Ertz​

No. 3 overall tight end, Philadelphia
The 30-year-old is shaping up to be a cap casualty for the Eagles, and he’d be higher on this list if it weren’t for some of the injury concerns. Still, he’s only a year removed from catching 88 passes and two years removed from the best season of his career (116 receptions, 1,163 yards, eight touchdowns). Ertz is essentially a receiver, so he’d be a solid pickup if the Patriots can’t get Henry, Smith, Samuel, Davis or Agholor. Ertz would probably cost about $8 million per year, similar to Jimmy Graham.

24. Ryan Fitzpatrick​

No. 3 overall quarterback, Miami
The 38-year-old is coming off a two-year, $11 million contract with the Dolphins. Over that time, he completed 64.2 percent of his passes and averaged 234.2 yards per game with 33 touchdowns to 21 interceptions and an 89.0 passer rating. Fitzpatrick is the perfect stopgap as a veteran who shouldn’t cost more than $10 million per year and is capable enough to keep the offense in games if he’s got enough help around him. Whether the Patriots draft their future quarterback now or in 2022, they can use Fitzpatrick as a placeholder while building up the roster elsewhere.

25. Teddy Bridgewater​

No. 4 overall quarterback, Carolina
The 2014 first-rounder put up similar numbers to Fitzpatrick but would come with double the salary if the Panthers trade him, which is the reason for the lower ranking. Bridgewater completed 69.1 percent of his passes for 3,733 yards, 15 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and a 92.1 passer rating in 15 starts in his first season with the Panthers. The 28-year-old is more accurate and takes better care of the ball than Fitzpatrick. If the Patriots traded for Bridgewater, they’d owe him $18 million in 2021, including $10 million guaranteed, and a non-guaranteed $21 million in 2022. The 2015 Pro Bowler has shown flashes of being a pretty good starter, but if the Panthers go in another direction, Bridgewater could join the fourth team of his career.
Click to expand...
Thanks Chevs
 
Andrews and Thuney imo need to be re-signed. They are the anchors of our OL and our most consistent players. I would like to see Butler re-signed as well he is a pretty good in the middle against the run. A dude like Guy I think could be replaced through the draft with a kid like Shelvin. Shelvin is a meatball in the middle of the DL, 6-5 365 he could occupy a lot of space in the middle and potentially take up 2 blockers. I think with a kid like Jennings and Wino they are versatile enough to play as DE's as well.
 
1970Dart said:
Andrews and Thuney imo need to be re-signed. They are the anchors of our OL and our most consistent players. I would like to see Butler re-signed as well he is a pretty good in the middle against the run. A dude like Guy I think could be replaced through the draft with a kid like Shelvin. Shelvin is a meatball in the middle of the DL, 6-5 365 he could occupy a lot of space in the middle and potentially take up 2 blockers. I think with a kid like Jennings and Wino they are versatile enough to play as DE's as well.
Click to expand...

Our OL could stand more height. We have a lot of OL who are 6'1"-6'3".
A taller LT is on my want list. Not 6'8" but at least 6'5".
Thuney is currently our tallest starting O lineman at 6'5". Wynn is 6'2" and Onwenu is 6'3". Mason is 6'1". Andrews is 6'3".
Batted balls are a problem when linemen get that short especially your tackles.
 
HSanders said:
I liked Agholor at the combine. always wondered why he couldn't make it in philly. might be nice to grab him.
Click to expand...


I'm surprised he played for next to nothing with the Raiders. He would be an upgrade over any receiver we have on the roster even as a burner.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top