The 2021 Draft- We Need This One

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foobahl said:
I do not think BB will trade future 1st rounders.
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He really should IF he likes a guy. That is the thing, he has to really like the guy he is trading up for. If he feels about him the way he felt about Jimmy then he absolutely should trade up and give up the future 1s.
 
HSanders said:
Charles Davis' mock

www.nfl.com

Charles Davis 2021 NFL mock draft 1.0: Falcons pick Justin Fields to succeed Matt Ryan

The Falcons and Patriots are among the five teams that select QBs in Charles Davis' first mock draft of 2021. Which prospects could be chosen to succeed Matt Ryan and Cam Newton?
www.nfl.com www.nfl.com
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I think that these mocks are more about throwing ideas out there or generating clicks.

I really can't see Lance falling past Carolina and Denver, and then being taken by the Pats.

If the Pats like him at 15, then my take is that one of the two teams above will like him at 8 or 9.
 
gomezcat said:
Does anyone have a take on what teams think of next year's QBs? That would presumably factor into whether some teams above the Pats draft one.
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It is supposedly a very weak class which is why teams are so focused on this year's draft that need a Qb. IMO it is too early to tell that but that is the initial read - weak class.
 
HSanders said:
Charles Davis' mock

www.nfl.com

Charles Davis 2021 NFL mock draft 1.0: Falcons pick Justin Fields to succeed Matt Ryan

The Falcons and Patriots are among the five teams that select QBs in Charles Davis' first mock draft of 2021. Which prospects could be chosen to succeed Matt Ryan and Cam Newton?
www.nfl.com www.nfl.com
Click to expand...

I see a lot of Josh Allen in Trey Lance's game just as Davis does with this exception - Lance is a little better at everything and is better prepared mentally; Lance won't take 2 years to get going. I'll be ecstatic if he falls to the Pats.
 
ParanoidPatriot said:
Right now if the Patriot want a QB they will have to trade up with the Lions at #7. Can't see any of the top 5 being there past 10 never mind 15.
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I agree. Falcons are offering 4. I would think Bengals would offer 5 too. I doubt we go up that high. Maybe someone does slip but not past 10.
 
gomezcat said:
Thanks. That's good to know.
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Here's the thing though. Let us guess that 5 qbs are taken in the first 10 picks this year to go with all the starting qbs still out there. How many 1st round qbs will be needed next year, and if there is how many starting qbs will be on the trash heap in order to make room for all these draft picks. I am not buying all the hype. There are starting caliber qbs everywhere. We had a 6th round pick start for 19 years here. Maybe one of the qbs drop to us, maybe not. The 3 that I called for the Pats will have a year to get acclimated to the system, which is the way BB seems to like out of his players. The stats for 1st round qbs are skewed because so many are chosen in the 1st round. A qb picked that high will of course get starts and a longer rope before he is pulled.
 
gomezcat said:
Does anyone have a take on what teams think of next year's QBs? That would presumably factor into whether some teams above the Pats draft one.
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As of now there are 3 or 4 QBs cited as possible 1st rounders - Spencer Rattler, OK, Tyler Shough, Texas Tech (transfer from Oregon), Sam Howell, N.Carolina, Kedon Slovis, USC & Matt Corral, Ole Miss. JT Daniels, GA if he stays out of the doghouse this year. Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati

But you never really know about some guys who pop up from no where to be 1st rnd picks similar to how Mac Jones did this year.

Tyler Shough (6-5, 220) took over for Justin Herbert in 2020 and it was like Herbert never left. He has great potential with a great mix of arm strength, size and athleticism.
 
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foobahl said:
Here's the thing though. Let us guess that 5 qbs are taken in the first 10 picks this year to go with all the starting qbs still out there. How many 1st round qbs will be needed next year, and if there is how many starting qbs will be on the trash heap in order to make room for all these draft picks. I am not buying all the hype. There are starting caliber qbs everywhere. We had a 6th round pick start for 19 years here. Maybe one of the qbs drop to us, maybe not. The 3 that I called for the Pats will have a year to get acclimated to the system, which is the way BB seems to like out of his players. The stats for 1st round qbs are skewed because so many are chosen in the 1st round. A qb picked that high will of course get starts and a longer rope before he is pulled.
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I had posted this earlier this week. Really good stats from an article in WEEI on why it is so critical to select a QB in the first round. BTW, I agree with your overall premise that you absolutely can find a starting QB outside of round 1 but the percentages of doing so fall precipitously after round 1 as these stats indicate. I really don't want a Cousins or a Prescott as my starting QB. Wilson of course is an outlier similar to Brady so I would take him in a heartbeat but getting him is akin to hitting the lottery. All the data shows picking a QB in round one is the way to go if you want a franchise starting QB.

Since 2010, 130 quarterbacks have been drafted overall, which include 33 in the first round and 11 in the second. Of those 44 players, they have averaged 43.5 games started in the league.

Then when it comes to Rounds 3-5, the same number of players (44) have been selected during that time, but yet those players have only averaged 13.9 games started. The three outliers are Dak Prescott (69 starts), Russell Wilson (144) and Kirk Cousins (104).

Lastly, the only player selected in Rounds 6-7 to really amount to anything is Tyrod Taylor, who has 44 career starts. And those stats are only in terms of games started, it’s even more staggering when it comes to actual team success.

Albeit just one season of a sample size, of the 14 starting quarterbacks in the playoffs in 2020, 11 were selected in the first round (Drew Brees was pick No. 32, but was Round 2 in 2001). Additionally, eight of the 14 were drafted in the top 10.

Bottom line, the majority of franchise quarterbacks get selected in the first round and more often than not in the top 10.

https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/patriots/if-patriots-want-qb-of-future-it-needs-to-be-in-round-1
 
Mazz22 said:
I had posted this earlier this week. Really good stats from an article in WEEI on why it is so critical to select a QB in the first round. BTW, I agree with your overall premise that you absolutely can find a starting QB outside of round 1 but the percentages of doing so fall precipitously after round 1 as these stats indicate. I really don't want a Cousins or a Prescott as my starting QB. Wilson of course is an outlier similar to Brady so I would take him in a heartbeat but getting him is akin to hitting the lottery. All the data shows picking a QB in round one is the way to go if you want a franchise starting QB.

Since 2010, 130 quarterbacks have been drafted overall, which include 33 in the first round and 11 in the second. Of those 44 players, they have averaged 43.5 games started in the league.

Then when it comes to Rounds 3-5, the same number of players (44) have been selected during that time, but yet those players have only averaged 13.9 games started. The three outliers are Dak Prescott (69 starts), Russell Wilson (144) and Kirk Cousins (104).

Lastly, the only player selected in Rounds 6-7 to really amount to anything is Tyrod Taylor, who has 44 career starts. And those stats are only in terms of games started, it’s even more staggering when it comes to actual team success.

Albeit just one season of a sample size, of the 14 starting quarterbacks in the playoffs in 2020, 11 were selected in the first round (Drew Brees was pick No. 32, but was Round 2 in 2001). Additionally, eight of the 14 were drafted in the top 10.

Bottom line, the majority of franchise quarterbacks get selected in the first round and more often than not in the top 10.

https://www.audacy.com/weei/sports/patriots/if-patriots-want-qb-of-future-it-needs-to-be-in-round-1
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This is a good informative post, Mazz22.
 
Just a reminder for everyone here.

The two weeks before the draft is when all teams have final meetings on the draft, break ties in grades, get medical reports, get psych reports, etc.
That means teams don’t truly know where the players are on their board until these final meetings conclude. It's all being done right now in war rooms across the league.
 
Another thing to note is that this is a historically small draft class with only 660 players signing up for the 2021 draft.
In 2019 there were 1972 players.
In 2020 there were 1839 players.
The reason is bc the NCAA granted athletes an extra year of eligibility after a COVID-warped season and a large number of players opted to return to school.
Which means that next year there should be 2000 or more prospects in the draft.
It also means that the lower prospects this year will include many who really aren't NFL worthy.
 
chevss454 said:
As of now there are 3 or 4 QBs cited as possible 1st rounders - Spencer Rattler, OK, Tyler Shough, Texas Tech (transfer from Oregon), Sam Howell, N.Carolina, Kedon Slovis, USC & Matt Corral, Ole Miss. JT Daniels, GA if he stays out of the doghouse this year. Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati

But you never really know about some guys who pop up from no where to be 1st rnd picks similar to how Mac Jones did this year.

Tyler Shough (6-5, 220) took over for Justin Herbert in 2020 and it was like Herbert never left. He has great potential with a great mix of arm strength, size and athleticism.
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Interesting. Thanks, I will keep an eye out. I need to watch College Football next year. ESPN College Pass works well in the UK.
 
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