2012 Pats Draft Predictions

[mayoclinic]

No, not specific predictions, which would be asinine. But some general predictions based on what the Pats have done the past several years.

1. BB will continue to draft for value, not for need. We will all focus on perceived needs and target players we believe fit those needs, and BB will focus on value and adding talent to the roster. He won't reach to fill needs. And most of us will be pissed off and confused when BB passes on perceived needs and skips over our binkies.

2. BB will continue to trade down and out for value, and not trade up. Sure, minor trade ups will always happen (moving up a few spots for Ty Warren or Rob Gronkowski, or moving up in later rounds for a targeted player). But next year, as in the past 3, the media will create all sort of rumors about BB trading into the top 10 to target some big name at a perceived need, and once again BB will trade down and out. Tom Dimitroff made this very clear. BB would never do the kind of deal Dimitroff did for Julio Jones. He could never get around the perceived value he was giving up. Expect more of the same - BB will continue to trade down and acquire value, and trade out for future picks.

3. BB will continue to take players in the 1st round who are not "projections". No conversions in round 1. Brandon Meriweather, Jerod Mayo, Pat Chung (a pseudo 1st round pick), Devin McCourty and Nate Solder all projected to exactly the same position they played in college. No transition necessary. DT/DE and OT/OG are minor exceptions. But BB does not want to waste a lot of time retraining a 1st round pick to a new position. Projections will start in day 2 at the earliest.

4. BB will not target a pass rusher in the 1st round. This is a corollary of point #3. He won't use a high pick on a conversion, no matter how enticing the prospect. The risk and "LTI" (length to impact, in Drew Boylhart's term) are too high. We'll all focus on the Clay Matthews / Robert Quinn / Von Miller / Aldon Smith guys, and BB won't make a move for them. He'll start in the 2nd round, as he did with Jermaine Cunningham. So it's fine to look at pass rushers for the Pats, but don't expect the Pats to start considering guys until the 2nd round. If a player falls and has enough value and the right intangibles, then BB may make a move. But not sooner. And he'll still be risk averse in the 2nd round - he passed up Connor Barwin, Carlos Dunlap, Sergio Kindle and Da'Quan Bowers, after all.

Thoughts?

 

[Patsfaninpa]

We use all 4 picks in the 1st two rounds. Unless, we trade a pick for a proven vet in 04 like Corey Dillon. We took Wilfork, B. Watson and M. Hill. We won't have to worry about acquiring an extra 1st rounder in 2013. Ryan Mallett will be traded for that.

Sit down for this one. We even trade up in the first. Because I think we'll get a 3RD rounder for Matt Light as compensation for losing a UFA. We won't want to pick back to back 96-97. So, we will use our own third to move up a little.Can't trade compensatory picks. It got difficult to trade for extra picks. Teams may be catching on to BB. I'm shocked we didn't trade 33 and move back even if it was just a little. Especially, with Andy Dalton available and Cincy ogling him. Thought we could get something out of them at least. Shaping up as an excellent class if juniors declare.

 

[chevss454]

I think I can add 2 more.

5. BB will draft risk/reward players but not until the middle rounds.

6. BB will look for ST value in the latter 2 rounds.

 

[Hawg73]

No, not specific predictions, which would be asinine. But some general predictions based on what the Pats have done the past several years.

1. BB will continue to draft for value, not for need. We will all focus on perceived needs and target players we believe fit those needs, and BB will focus on value and adding talent to the roster. He won't reach to fill needs. And most of us will be pissed off and confused when BB passes on perceived needs and skips over our binkies.

The pissed off part is a safe prediction, but it's possible that the reason we win consistently is because he doesn't cave in to the temptation of "need". Having two players to choose from with similar grades I believe he will definitely draft for need, but he will not reach to fill a short term need.

2. BB will continue to trade down and out for value, and not trade up.

He says that he wouldn't rule it out and I don't believe Bill is immune to falling in coachly love with a particular player. If a rookie cap becomes a reality and the salaries are considerably less out of whack next year or in the future then yes, he very well might, but with the system in place I think we will see exactly what we have seen. The second round has more value to the team as a whole and he'll stick with that plan.

3. BB will continue to take players in the 1st round who are not "projections". No conversions in round 1.

See above. He's not going to spend a lot of money for a guy that might not be able to handle a projection to a new position. I wouldn't be surprised if he was interested in Ryan Kerrigan because he had everything we like in a player except a clear-cut position that we flat-out knew he could perform well in. A cap might change this, but probably not.

4. BB will not target a pass rusher in the 1st round.

I disagree with this, but he won't go for anyone that is a one-trick pony. Elvis Dumervil couldn't play here, but James Harrison probably could. He loves guys that can bring heat as long as they can mind their gaps, hold an edge, tackle and know their jobs.

The problem is that Mike Vrabels don't grow on trees.

Very difficult to find these kinds of players and there doesn't seem to be a whole bunch of them around these days despite the dozen or so teams that play 3-4.

I'm sure he would've loved to have had Von Miller and turn him into an all-around player, but the price would have been exorbitant.

Beyond him there were precious few guys that looked all that good.

 

[Oswlek]

We use all 4 picks in the 1st two rounds.

Not a chance in hell of this happening.

Stole this from patsfans because they say it better than I could.

I cant believe there are still fans on the board griping about BB's decision to trade out of the 1st round. Have we learned nothing, people? They are already upset that even with two 1sts in 2012 BB is likely to trade one of those picks into 2013 anyway-- "so what's the point?"

Well, if it's not already obvious, let me spell it out. The point is that BB has a nice little annuity going that could run as long as he can find trading partners, and the payout is a 2nd round pick annually.

Here's where our first rounders this year have worked out this year...

2011 1st (#17) = Neal Solder (2011)
2011 1st (#28) = Shane Vereen (2011) + 2012 1st (New Orleans)

So, next year, lets say we get...

2012 1st (from New Orleans)
2012 1st (our own) = 2012 2nd + 2013 1st

... and suppose this trading is infinitely repeatable...

2013 1st (from trade)
2013 1st (our own) = 2013 2nd + 2014 1st

If BB keeps this up, he should be able to draft a 1st and two 2nds every year for the rest of his career. How's that for a nice little annuity? Thanks to the Richard Seymour trade plus his willingness to be patient, he has a system that will give him an extra 2nd round pick every year for... forever. Nice sustainable competitive advantage, I'd say. He's been incredibly successful converting 2nd rounders the last two years, with Gronk, Chung, Vollmer, Spikes, Cunningham proving the point that you can find game breaking talent with very low risk. Here's hoping the streak continues.

As a bonus, this approach gives BB the opportunity to be in the playoffs every year, and still choose a first rounder in the teens every year, instead of in the thirties. Gives him persistent access to a higher level of first round talent than the Colts, Eagles and Steelers will have a shot at, even if they fall out of the playoffs earlier than the Pats.

The Richard Seymour Annuity isn't the first time BB has had this opportunity. The Drew Bledsoe Annuity gave us a similar dynamic in 2003 and 2004.

2003 1st (#13) = Ty Warren (2003)
2003 1st (#19) = Eugene Wilson (2003) + 2004 1st (Baltimore)

2004 1st (#21) = Vince Wilfork (2004)
2004 1st (#32) = Benjamin Watson (2004)... so the loop stops, because he picked Watson instead of paying it forward into the 2004 2nd + 2005 1st

Now, imagine if BB had traded #32 to New Orleans in 2004, for a 2005 1st rounder plus their 2nd. The Saints selected Deverey Henderson with their 2nd, and the early 2005 1st rounder could have been Demarcus Ware. It would have meant keeping Christian Fauria on the roster a few years longer, not having Watson. But now, in retrospect, would that have been so bad?

Let's play it the other way... what if BB had traded up in 2003 instead of down? He could have traded as high as #4 overall, and instead of Warren, Wilson and Wilfork, he could have had his choice between Jonathan Sullivan, Dwayne Robertson or Terence Newman. It's laughable now, but a lot of fans on this board really wanted us to move up for a "blue chipper" like Sullivan.


Also, the Deon Branch Annuity showed some potential before a sad break-loop

2007 1st (#23) = Brandon Meriweather (2007)
2007 1st (#28) = Randy Moss (2007) + 2008 1st (San Francisco)

2008 1st (#7) = Jerod Mayo (2008) + Shawn Crable (2008)
2008 1st (forfeited, spygate)... so the loop stops, because the league slapped the team

Again, instead of trading down for Moss + Mayo + Crable and Meriweather, if BB had traded up from #23 + #28, he could have gotten as high as #8 overall, which could have been Jamaal Anderson, Ted Ginn or Patrick Willis, two of which have been huge busts.


It looks like BB isn't just playing this strategy game with his 1st rounders. He's doing the same thing by monetizing extra 3rd round picks into future 2nds, which he's done a few times now.

And trading Cassel + Vrabel to the Chiefs gave us Chung at 34, allowing BB to make an incredible series of trades that converted the #23 overall pick in 2009 into the following four players: Darius Butler (2009), Brandon Tate (2009), Julian Edelman (2009) and Rob Gronkowski (2010). Gronkowski is worth the 1st rounder on his own.

How is this possible? It seems as if BB is "creating" draft value. And, in fact, he is. The price to pay is a willingness to be patient. And patience can only come with job security and a confidence that he'll be there to take advantage of the good draft positioning in the future, which is something you can credit Bob Kraft for creating. I think we should all be grateful to be fans for a franchise that can afford to take the long view, and has the smarts and discipline to pull it off. So, stop whining and show some respect.

The difference between NE's average draft spot traded (25) and those received (15) would require a 2nd round pick at least to move up. Add in the 2nd they get as current compensation and it means that as a single year's patience is equivalent to 2 extra 2nd round picks every year. Very few players in the league are worth that much, let alone a late first round rookie.

 

[German_Patriot]

Because I think we'll get a 3RD rounder for Matt Light as compensation for losing a UFA.

"Faneca-rule", players who have played in the league for 10 or more years can only get you a 5th or lower.

 

[chevss454]

"Faneca-rule", players who have played in the league for 10 or more years can only get you a 5th or lower.

GP to the rescue yet again!

 

[mayoclinic]

Not a chance in hell of this happening.

Stole this from patsfans because they say it better than I could.



The difference between NE's average draft spot traded (25) and those received (15) would require a 2nd round pick at least to move up. Add in the 2nd they get as current compensation and it means that as a single year's patience is equivalent to 2 extra 2nd round picks every year. Very few players in the league are worth that much, let alone a late first round rookie.

It's fun to see how long BB milks these things:

1. Deion Branch held out in 2006. We lost his services for 4 years, got #24 in the 2007 draft, and got him back in 2010 for a 2011 4th.
2. #24 in 2007 allowed us to trade #28 to SF for a 2007 4th and 2008 1st.
3. The 2008 1st was #7, which we traded for #10 and #78 and used to draft Jerod Mayo and Shawn Crable.
4. Even though Crable was a bust, the extra pick allowed us to trade #69 in 2008 to SD for a 2009 2nd, eventually used to draft Ron Brace.
5. We traded the 2007 4th to Oakland for Randy Moss, and got 3 pro bowl years out of him.
6. We the traded Moss to Minny for #74 in 2011, which we used to draft Ryan Mallett, who could be our future franchise QB.
7. Or, in a year or two we could be trading Mallett for more bounty.

The gift that keeps on giving.

 

[Lamanai]

We don't know if Mallett is gonna pan out. So if the plan truly is to develop him primarily for a later trade, why wouldn't they just have swapped #74 for a 2012 2nd rounder, then flipped that for a 2013 1st? Seems like there is a lot less risk in leapfrogging picks. Mallett might actually yield nothing while this simmering draft pick has marketability...

Just a thought.

 

[chevss454]

We don't know if Mallett is gonna pan out. So if the plan truly is to develop him primarily for a later trade, why wouldn't they just have swapped #74 for a 2012 2nd rounder, then flipped that for a 2013 1st? Seems like there is a lot less risk in leapfrogging picks. Mallett might actually yield nothing while this simmering draft pick has marketability...

Just a thought.

Because Mallett was the best QB in this draft. He has the biggest arm, best pocket presence and he is the only QB who played in a pro style offense in college. He'll pan out. Then someone will give us picks or players for him. He is currency.

 

[mayoclinic]

We don't know if Mallett is gonna pan out. So if the plan truly is to develop him primarily for a later trade, why wouldn't they just have swapped #74 for a 2012 2nd rounder, then flipped that for a 2013 1st? Seems like there is a lot less risk in leapfrogging picks. Mallett might actually yield nothing while this simmering draft pick has marketability...

Just a thought.

First, I think they like Mallett a lot - he was the #1 QB on their board - and they could see him becoming the successor to Brady. Second, the pick sends a message - it lights a fire under TB and emphasizes that no one is bigger than the team, not even TB. Third, if Mallett does develop he'll be worth much more than a 2012 2nd.

 

[Oswlek]

We don't know if Mallett is gonna pan out. So if the plan truly is to develop him primarily for a later trade, why wouldn't they just have swapped #74 for a 2012 2nd rounder, then flipped that for a 2013 1st? Seems like there is a lot less risk in leapfrogging picks. Mallett might actually yield nothing while this simmering draft pick has marketability...

Just a thought.

They clearly like Mallett because he also throws a curve into the "QB develop and trade" equation. With a sunk cost of a 3rd rounder, they need to get a first for it to be similar value to what Cassell and (hopefully) Trashcanman fetched. It really isn't that unreasonable to think they view him as a possible successor, in the Aaron Rodgers/Brett Favre mold.

I also think that NE wanted a more viable 3rd option for practice time, to give the receivers more valuable work and to limit Brady's mid-week wear and tear.

 

[AllWorldTE]

Not a chance in hell of this happening.

Stole this from patsfans because they say it better than I could.



The difference between NE's average draft spot traded (25) and those received (15) would require a 2nd round pick at least to move up. Add in the 2nd they get as current compensation and it means that as a single year's patience is equivalent to 2 extra 2nd round picks every year. Very few players in the league are worth that much, let alone a late first round rookie.

This post explains BB's philosophy perfectly. For some reason, many otherwise reasonable people do not understand the advantage of this system. It allows the Pats to beat the forces of parity year after year. It's the goose that lays the golden eggs and people like Masserotti want to kill it so they can have all the eggs RIGHT NOW!

 

[Oswlek]

This post explains BB's philosophy perfectly. For some reason, many otherwise reasonable people do not understand the advantage of this system. It allows the Pats to beat the forces of parity year after year. It's the goose that lays the golden eggs and people like Masserotti want to kill it so they can have all the eggs RIGHT NOW!

The funny thing is, Fears specifically stated that they didn't like LeShoure or Ingram. So, they essentially picked up an extra first for postponing the selection of the RB they wanted most a single round.

This one will be a fun one to watch - nice and easy since the two guys play the exact same position. I'll laugh if Vereen ends up being the better running back.

 

[mayoclinic]

This post explains BB's philosophy perfectly. For some reason, many otherwise reasonable people do not understand the advantage of this system. It allows the Pats to beat the forces of parity year after year. It's the goose that lays the golden eggs and people like Masserotti want to kill it so they can have all the eggs RIGHT NOW!

BB is essentially defying the laws of physics. It scares people.

 

[midgar8784]

First, I think they like Mallett a lot - he was the #1 QB on their board - and they could see him becoming the successor to Brady. Second, the pick sends a message - it lights a fire under TB and emphasizes that no one is bigger than the team, not even TB. Third, if Mallett does develop he'll be worth much more than a 2012 2nd.

So after 10 years you think Brady needs to be told how this works and what it does, so they drafted a QB to light a fire under a player that just won MPV? Boy I hope Brady gets the message.....he has a lot to learn about the ways of the patriots.

 

[Jaric]

So after 10 years you think Brady needs to be told how this works and what it does, so they drafted a QB to light a fire under a player that just won MPV? Boy I hope Brady gets the message.....he has a lot to learn about the ways of the patriots.

Don't give up yet midgar, he just needs more time to figure shit out.

 

[Oswlek]

I have one more prediction.

Patriots fans, going into the draft with two first rounders and two second rounders are going to start daydreaming about a studly top 10 pick and will convince themselves that this time BB might just pull the trigger on a mega-move. Then they will decry the 2012 class as "the worst Patriots draft ever" when NE forfeits two of those picks for future selections and fails to grab a pass rushing OLB demon.

This one I feel real good about.

 

[Hawg73]

I have one more prediction.

Patriots fans, going into the draft with two first rounders and two second rounders are going to start daydreaming about a studly top 10 pick and will convince themselves that this time BB might just pull the trigger on a mega-move. Then they will decry the 2012 class as "the worst Patriots draft ever" when NE forfeits two of those picks for future selections and fails to grab a pass rushing OLB demon.

This one I feel real good about.

This just about sums it up-- only you forgot to mention that all of this happens despite the 3rd consecutive really productive Patriots draft that almost every other team would kill for.

 

[greenhorn]

I have one more prediction.

Patriots fans, going into the draft with two first rounders and two second rounders are going to start daydreaming about a studly top 10 pick and will convince themselves that this time BB might just pull the trigger on a mega-move. Then they will decry the 2012 class as "the worst Patriots draft ever" when NE forfeits two of those picks for future selections and fails to grab a pass rushing OLB demon.

This one I feel real good about.

I'll be quite happy to hitch my wagon to that particular horse!