Bedard was saying yesterday that he thought 9 wins would be enough in the AFC for the playoffs. Might be one of his worst takes ever.
I think 11 wins is the benchmark but for us we need to win vs the Browns and Colts the most in terms of WC positioning. I believe the Chargers are going to win the West although I don't want to discount the Raiders so a loss for the Chargers I don't believe will sink us a lot.
We have to split with the Bills to realistically have any shot but I think that is doable as the Bills don't appear to be as formidable as they were last year. The other game that is in the balance is at Miami to end the season. If Miami has Watson then and he is eligible to play that game could be the decider for a WC which really stinks.
I think 11 is basically a lock, 10 could do it with decent tiebreakers.
I don't expect the Colts to be there in December - that is just not a very good team, and I don't see significant developmental upside. They do have 4 games against Houston and Jax going for them, so it's not totally out of the question, though. I have no fear of Miami, with or without Watson.
You can basically tier the AFC teams in terms of likelihood to make the playoffs:
Tier 1: Bills and Titans (good teams, good lead, cupcakes in the division)
Tier 2: Bengals, Chargers, Ravens (good teams, good record, tougher divisions)
Tier 3a: Raiders (good record, tougher division)
Tier 3b: Chiefs, Browns, Patriots (good teams, bad starts)
Tier 4: Steelers, Colts, Broncos (not out of it, but not good teams, PIT/DEN have tough divisions)
Tier LOL: Jax, Jets, Dolphins, Houston
Barring something catastrophic, I think tier 1 teams are locks. Maybe one team falls out of tiers 1&2, but at least 4 of those 5 teams are in. So 1, maybe 2 teams from tier 3 are going to make it.
Of those, you can't ignore the Raiders' head start and the Chiefs' explosiveness and high-end talent, plus their track record. From that perspective you could say those two have the best chance, but they play each other twice. I think the Pats and Browns might be the two best teams overall, but in both cases they need things to come together and gel to be good enough to dig out of the hole they are in. And the Browns' remaining schedule is nasty.