From the Athletic
The case for moving forward with Belichick requires compromise.
“Bill is brilliant and provides a lot of value,” another exec said. “He needs help with player acquisition. The question is, will he accept it or fight it? He’s going to have to make sacrifices to get that all-time record for wins.”
We have detailed in the past how much institutional knowledge Belichick and the Patriots have lost. Ernie Adams, Nick Caserio, Dave Ziegler, Josh McDaniels, Dante Scarnecchia, Josh Boyer, Brian Flores, Chad O’Shea were with Belichick as coaches, evaluators and confidants for decades. All are gone.
“The idea that all Bill needs is help is pretty compelling,” a third exec said. “Bill always had a development system for coaches and personnel people, including people like Caserio, who coached wide receivers and then, next thing you know, he is director of player personnel. My question is, where is the next Caserio? Are we going to declare in 2023 that this is it, Bill needs help, and he can’t go to his farm and get the people he needs?”
Getting help for Belichick sounds great, but isn’t necessarily practical.
“Who would take a job in personnel there and think that they have real power?” a fourth exec said. “How do you get somebody? I’m wondering if that is why they ended up with Patricia and Judge a year ago, and Bill O’Brien now. Maybe nobody else wanted the jobs.”
Almost no one in the game knows football history better than Belichick does. Surely he watched the Raiders regress as their Hall of Fame visionary owner Al Davis clung to old ways, plunging that organization into mediocrity for decades. Belichick is not there, but he’s closer now than he’s ever been. He needs 30 regular-season wins to pass Don Shula for the all-time lead. At his post-Brady win rate, Belichick would need to coach the rest of this season, plus three more 17-game seasons, just to break the record early in the 2027 season, at age 75.
“If Bill wants to salvage this, he has to get in position to get one of those quarterbacks (in the 2024 draft),” the first exec said. “Otherwise, you are paying top of the market for Kirk Cousins, or going after (Gardner) Minshew or (Ryan) Tannehill or (Justin) Fields or Kyler Murray or Zach Wilson.
“To me, it is a Kraft discussion, not a Bill discussion. We know what Bill is with and without Tom Brady. It is more, where do they go next year, with Kraft being responsible for that.”
theathletic.com
Also from the Athletic
1/2
from Jeff Howe, The Athletic
There’s a school of thought that suggests Bill Belichick has earned the right to go out on his own accord, that the architect of the greatest dynasty in NFL history can coach in New England as long as he chooses.
Kraft doesn’t subscribe to it.
As Belichick pursues Don Shula’s all-time wins record, Kraft’s priorities will be tested. For the better part of two decades, the Patriots found new ways to measure their historic levels of success through pages upon pages of record books. But over the past two weeks, Belichick suffered the biggest blowout defeat of his career against the Dallas Cowboys (38-3) and followed it up with the organization’s worst home shutout. This is the first time since Kraft bought the team they’ve lost two games by 30 points in the same season, and it happened within a span of seven days.
The entire operation needs to improve — and fast. The Patriots are 1-4 and returning to the scene of their most humiliating loss in 2022 to take on another Kraft favorite: Las Vegas Raiders coach Josh McDaniels, as well as an owner in Mark Davis who has become business partners with Tom Brady. This is going to be a gut-check type of week for Kraft.
Then the Patriots take on the Bills and Dolphins, two AFC East opponents that have had a one-sided advantage over the Patriots since 2020. After that stretch, seven of their final nine opponents have superior records.
Belichick is sitting at 330 career victories. For a while, Belichick had been on track to surpass Shula’s 347 wins in 2024, which would sync up with his 50th season in the NFL.
But if the Patriots don’t start beating comparable opponents, let alone the perceived superior foes, that 348th victory may not be within reach in 2024. And if this chase continues at the current pace, how much energy would the fan base realistically expend to celebrate No. 348 — whenever it may come?
Kraft likes to remind people he grew up as a Patriots fan during the organization’s darkest days. But that doesn’t mean he has patience to endure more of them. On multiple occasions in recent years, he has lamented the team’s lack of a postseason victory in the post-Brady era. Kraft has grown frustrated, if not downright angry, over this shortage of success, according to people close to the situation.
Kraft hired Belichick in 2000 because he was enamored with two primary attributes. First, Kraft gained a firsthand appreciation for Belichick’s brilliant defensive mind and leadership presence when he was on Bill Parcells’ Patriots staff in 1996. Second, Kraft loved Belichick’s savviness and organization with the salary cap as it related to roster construction. Belichick was an incredible forward thinker during a time when many teams were still struggling to navigate the relatively new cap system.
But Belichick has failed to evolve. One example: The Patriots haven’t invested in big-time wide receivers despite the league trending in that direction. That philosophy worked for a long time with Brady running the offense, but it’s an antiquated way of thinking in the current state of the league. Beyond that, the value moves haven’t panned out, with Jakobi Meyers’ instant success with the Raiders and JuJu Smith-Schuster’s struggles with the Patriots refocusing the spotlight on that free-agent exchange.
The Patriots, under Belichick’s watch, have also struggled to draft and develop talent. Punter Jake Bailey, a 2019 fifth-round pick, was the last in-house selection to get a multiyear contract extension, and he was cut seven months later. Four other players got similar extensions in the previous four seasons, all of them fourth- or fifth-round selections.
Safety Kyle Dugger and outside linebacker Josh Uche, each in the final year of their contracts, are certainly well-aware of the pattern. Meanwhile, contenders like the Kansas Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles are consistently paying to keep their homegrown talent.
The offensive line has gotten progressively worse each season since famed offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia retired following 2019. While injuries have been a persistent problem, the bottoming out of this line had been brewing for too long because of mismanaged assets in the draft and free agency.
New England has also gotten minimal production out of their tight ends in the post-Rob Gronkowski world, virtually ignoring the position in the draft during the 2010s before whiffing on a pair of third-rounders in 2020 and eventually signing Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith to lucrative deals in 2021.
The case for moving forward with Belichick requires compromise.
“Bill is brilliant and provides a lot of value,” another exec said. “He needs help with player acquisition. The question is, will he accept it or fight it? He’s going to have to make sacrifices to get that all-time record for wins.”
We have detailed in the past how much institutional knowledge Belichick and the Patriots have lost. Ernie Adams, Nick Caserio, Dave Ziegler, Josh McDaniels, Dante Scarnecchia, Josh Boyer, Brian Flores, Chad O’Shea were with Belichick as coaches, evaluators and confidants for decades. All are gone.
“The idea that all Bill needs is help is pretty compelling,” a third exec said. “Bill always had a development system for coaches and personnel people, including people like Caserio, who coached wide receivers and then, next thing you know, he is director of player personnel. My question is, where is the next Caserio? Are we going to declare in 2023 that this is it, Bill needs help, and he can’t go to his farm and get the people he needs?”
Getting help for Belichick sounds great, but isn’t necessarily practical.
“Who would take a job in personnel there and think that they have real power?” a fourth exec said. “How do you get somebody? I’m wondering if that is why they ended up with Patricia and Judge a year ago, and Bill O’Brien now. Maybe nobody else wanted the jobs.”
Almost no one in the game knows football history better than Belichick does. Surely he watched the Raiders regress as their Hall of Fame visionary owner Al Davis clung to old ways, plunging that organization into mediocrity for decades. Belichick is not there, but he’s closer now than he’s ever been. He needs 30 regular-season wins to pass Don Shula for the all-time lead. At his post-Brady win rate, Belichick would need to coach the rest of this season, plus three more 17-game seasons, just to break the record early in the 2027 season, at age 75.
“If Bill wants to salvage this, he has to get in position to get one of those quarterbacks (in the 2024 draft),” the first exec said. “Otherwise, you are paying top of the market for Kirk Cousins, or going after (Gardner) Minshew or (Ryan) Tannehill or (Justin) Fields or Kyler Murray or Zach Wilson.
“To me, it is a Kraft discussion, not a Bill discussion. We know what Bill is with and without Tom Brady. It is more, where do they go next year, with Kraft being responsible for that.”
Do the Patriots have a future with Bill Belichick, or without? Sando's Pick Six
What's the QB fallout of Niners-Cowboys? Does David Tepper know what he's doing? What to do about Anthony Richardson's health? And more.
theathletic.com
Also from the Athletic
1/2
from Jeff Howe, The Athletic
There’s a school of thought that suggests Bill Belichick has earned the right to go out on his own accord, that the architect of the greatest dynasty in NFL history can coach in New England as long as he chooses.
Kraft doesn’t subscribe to it.
As Belichick pursues Don Shula’s all-time wins record, Kraft’s priorities will be tested. For the better part of two decades, the Patriots found new ways to measure their historic levels of success through pages upon pages of record books. But over the past two weeks, Belichick suffered the biggest blowout defeat of his career against the Dallas Cowboys (38-3) and followed it up with the organization’s worst home shutout. This is the first time since Kraft bought the team they’ve lost two games by 30 points in the same season, and it happened within a span of seven days.
The entire operation needs to improve — and fast. The Patriots are 1-4 and returning to the scene of their most humiliating loss in 2022 to take on another Kraft favorite: Las Vegas Raiders coach Josh McDaniels, as well as an owner in Mark Davis who has become business partners with Tom Brady. This is going to be a gut-check type of week for Kraft.
Then the Patriots take on the Bills and Dolphins, two AFC East opponents that have had a one-sided advantage over the Patriots since 2020. After that stretch, seven of their final nine opponents have superior records.
Belichick is sitting at 330 career victories. For a while, Belichick had been on track to surpass Shula’s 347 wins in 2024, which would sync up with his 50th season in the NFL.
But if the Patriots don’t start beating comparable opponents, let alone the perceived superior foes, that 348th victory may not be within reach in 2024. And if this chase continues at the current pace, how much energy would the fan base realistically expend to celebrate No. 348 — whenever it may come?
Kraft likes to remind people he grew up as a Patriots fan during the organization’s darkest days. But that doesn’t mean he has patience to endure more of them. On multiple occasions in recent years, he has lamented the team’s lack of a postseason victory in the post-Brady era. Kraft has grown frustrated, if not downright angry, over this shortage of success, according to people close to the situation.
Kraft hired Belichick in 2000 because he was enamored with two primary attributes. First, Kraft gained a firsthand appreciation for Belichick’s brilliant defensive mind and leadership presence when he was on Bill Parcells’ Patriots staff in 1996. Second, Kraft loved Belichick’s savviness and organization with the salary cap as it related to roster construction. Belichick was an incredible forward thinker during a time when many teams were still struggling to navigate the relatively new cap system.
But Belichick has failed to evolve. One example: The Patriots haven’t invested in big-time wide receivers despite the league trending in that direction. That philosophy worked for a long time with Brady running the offense, but it’s an antiquated way of thinking in the current state of the league. Beyond that, the value moves haven’t panned out, with Jakobi Meyers’ instant success with the Raiders and JuJu Smith-Schuster’s struggles with the Patriots refocusing the spotlight on that free-agent exchange.
The Patriots, under Belichick’s watch, have also struggled to draft and develop talent. Punter Jake Bailey, a 2019 fifth-round pick, was the last in-house selection to get a multiyear contract extension, and he was cut seven months later. Four other players got similar extensions in the previous four seasons, all of them fourth- or fifth-round selections.
Safety Kyle Dugger and outside linebacker Josh Uche, each in the final year of their contracts, are certainly well-aware of the pattern. Meanwhile, contenders like the Kansas Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles are consistently paying to keep their homegrown talent.
The offensive line has gotten progressively worse each season since famed offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia retired following 2019. While injuries have been a persistent problem, the bottoming out of this line had been brewing for too long because of mismanaged assets in the draft and free agency.
New England has also gotten minimal production out of their tight ends in the post-Rob Gronkowski world, virtually ignoring the position in the draft during the 2010s before whiffing on a pair of third-rounders in 2020 and eventually signing Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith to lucrative deals in 2021.
