Brady: I've got to do a better job finding the other recievers

Brady has gone from an A+ QB to an A- QB. Still better than just about anyone in the league. I expect him to light it up this weekend vs. that crappy Raiders team. I'd love to see them put up 60 and get their offensive swagger back
 
A Bat Signal might work...

We're so fortunate to have AWTE here to set us straight. Thanks, AWTE, for all you do!

I'd use this instead of a bat

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I think this is pretty much the basis of the idea. The Pats rank their playmakers from one to whatever. Number one, two and three get heavy payloads and the test not so much.

Edelman is a good man buster so when you're facing a lot of man coverage he's going to be featured as the primary receiver which ups his work load as well.

Have they always done it this way?

If yes, then it leads to the obvious question.

In the before time, everyone thought TFB+ didn't have a binky, he would always find the open guy.

So if it was all due to the progressions and the ranking of the players, how did people get that impression?

Were the rankings of those receivers much closer than today?
 
Jeff Howe has more supporting AWTE's analysis.

That’s been far more of an issue than the perceived ignoring of Amendola and company, and the game plan against the Vikings proves it. Of the Patriots’ 23 passing plays, they were in two-receiver sets 13 times, three-receiver sets nine times and a heavy, one-receiver package with LaFell once. Edelman led the way with 22 of those snaps, followed by Gronkowski (13), Dobson (13), LaFell (11), Michael Hoomanawanui (11), Vereen (10), Amendola (nine), Ridley (eight) and a minor mixture of everyone else.

A week after Brady was hit 17 times, including 12 knocks to the ground and four sacks, in the spirit of self-preservation, he went to his initial read on a vast majority of his 22 throws.

Edelman’s 9-yard touchdown was the result of a designed audible, and his 44-yarder beforehand happened when Brady took advantage of poor coverage. Edelman was also the first read on a 12-yarder in the second quarter, and was the recipient of a first-quarter screen pass and was open for 6 yards after a quick breakdown in protection.

Gronkowski was the first read on gains of 6, 5 and 11 yards in the third quarter, and was open for a 10-yard catch due to a poorly executed blitz on third-and-7.

Of course, Brady made some mistakes when eying the pair.

Brady threw at a double-covered Gronk for his lone first-half incompletion and could have held the ball a bit longer to see Brandon Bolden squirt open in the flat as the fifth read. He also stared down Gronkowski on a third-quarter third-and-4 when his pass was batted at the line by Chad Greenway.

There was also an interesting third-and-2 in the third quarter when Brady missed an open Edelman deep down the left sideline. Brady appeared to look off the safety while staring at Gronkowski over the middle, which freed up Edelman, but Brady probably could have hit Gronk anyway. Regardless, the throw to Edelman was one Brady expects to make.

Other first-read beneficiaries included James Develin’s 13-yarder in the first and Hoomanawanui’s 6-yarder in the second. So, if the Pats would design plays for those two, they can surely do the same for Amendola, Dobson and the others.

Amendola, by the way, does not lack chemistry with Brady, as the two proved all training camp. Against the Vikings, it was a simple matter of not getting open on his nine routes. There wasn’t a single time when Amendola was a better option than Brady’s target, including the lone incompletion when Brady actually forced the throw.

Also, Amendola has had two catches for 41 yards negated due to offensive pass interference penalties by LaFell and Dobson.

Don’t blame Brady for being too overzealous with his most productive tandem.
 
Screw that I got Gronk and Edelman in some of my fantasy leagues.... Stay locked in on them! :harumph:
 
Have they always done it this way?

If yes, then it leads to the obvious question.

In the before time, everyone thought TFB+ didn't have a binky, he would always find the open guy.

So if it was all due to the progressions and the ranking of the players, how did people get that impression?

Were the rankings of those receivers much closer than today?

I've never bought that whole "TB throws to the open man" as meaning that he'll throw to anyone at anytime. I think the Pats have always ranked their play makers and designed their offense accordingly so they could feature the players they felt should be touching the ball more frequently.

I believe that they always feature two or three guys when they had the talent and spread it around more when they didn't.

I looked at the numbers from 2001-2007 and 2009-2013. One things that obvious and that everyone already knows is that the Pats underwent a sea change philosophically in 2007. The offense became far more efficient and the passing ratio increased and they played with a much higher tempo which increased the passing game numbers significantly.

However if you just look at target numbers during those years you'll see similar spreads across the board with anomalies here and there.

You'll also see shifting focus from the WR/RB to WR/TE to better mixes year to year which is obviously attributed to the talent at hand leading credence to the idea they've always ranked players and built their game plans accordingly.

In 2001 Brown and Patten were targeted 142 & 94 times respectively. The next four top targets were all RBs, the top target of which was Edwards with 39. I'd say that the game plan passing attacks were focused on two individuals that year.

2002 showed Brown 141, Patten 115 & Branch 68 as the top three targets. The next in line was Faulk with 53 targets. The passing attack was slightly more diversified but not by much.

2003 showed Branch with 104 targets and four others grouped together (Faulk 67, Graham 63 , Brown 60 & Givens 54). This spread shows that Branch was by far Brady's top target, after him the staff used the guys more equally than during most seasons. Of course, David Patten barely played this year due to injury and this offense wasn't nearly the offense this team had in later years. I think these numbers were the result of an injury to the number two guy.

2004 showed a top heavy spread again as Givens 105 emerged, Patten 91 came back & Branch 51 was injured much of the year. Still Graham with 46 targets and multiple running backs with about 30 targets each rounded off the pass attack. Again it was top heavy.

2005 was dominated by Branch 125 and Givens 96 with the next highest target being Faulk with 37. This was a very top heavy year.

2006 showed more of the same with Caldwell at 102 and Watson at 91. Brown made a comeback of sorts with 75 targets. That Watson & Brown show up at all shows the talent limit this team faced during that season in their pass game. Still, the target ratios were top heavy with the next highest after Brown being Faulk at 56.

2007 showed a higher number of targets overall but similar ratios. Moss 160, Welk 145, were far above the next two in Stallworth 75 & Faulk 61.

2009 featured Welk at 162 & Moss at 137 with the next two Edelman 54 & Faulk 53. Watson was next with 41. Top heavy again.

2010 Welk's 123 was far above the next four who were closely grouped in Branch 74, Ahern 64 & Gronk 59. Tate was next with 46. Welk was far and away the number one guy but after that this year was similar to 2003 in the lack of a second top target.

2011 showed probably the best overall balance with four guys receiving significant numbers of targets (Welk 173, Gronk 124, Ahern 113 & Branch 90)

2012 showed a similar spread of targets with Welk 174, Lloyd 131, Ahern 83, Gronk 79 & Woody 55. This isn't as balanced as 2011 but injury surely played a part.

2013 was similar with one player well out in front in number of targets in Edelman w/151. After that the next five targets (Amendola 83, Dobson 72, Verreen 69, Thomkins 69 & Gronk 66) are closely grouped although the drop in numbers reflects the drop in offensive efficiency. I think one can conclude that a healthy Gronk would have skewed these numbers to himself and Edelman keeping with the top heavy approach of other years.

Looking at these numbers I don't see any evidence to indicate that the Pats have ever really veered from featuring certain players far more than others except through necessity. The "Brady throws to the open man" thing is mostly a myth IMO. In fact, I suspect that if one were to compare these target numbers with the efficiency of the targets, one might find that they should have thrown more often to the top ranked guy, at least theoretically. There are too many factors involved to come to an actual conclusion of that nature.
 
Another terrific post, AWTE. This one requires careful reading to assimilate all of it. reps +1

The "Brady throws to the open man" thing is mostly a myth IMO. In fact, I suspect that if one were to compare these target numbers with the efficiency of the targets, one might find that they should have thrown more often to the top ranked guy, at least theoretically. There are too many factors involved to come to an actual conclusion of that nature.
 
I've never bought that whole "TB throws to the open man" as meaning that he'll throw to anyone at anytime. I think the Pats have always ranked their play makers and designed their offense accordingly so they could feature the players they felt should be touching the ball more frequently.

I believe that they always feature two or three guys when they had the talent and spread it around more when they didn't.

I looked at the numbers from 2001-2007 and 2009-2013. One things that obvious and that everyone already knows is that the Pats underwent a sea change philosophically in 2007. The offense became far more efficient and the passing ratio increased and they played with a much higher tempo which increased the passing game numbers significantly.

However if you just look at target numbers during those years you'll see similar spreads across the board with anomalies here and there.

You'll also see shifting focus from the WR/RB to WR/TE to better mixes year to year which is obviously attributed to the talent at hand leading credence to the idea they've always ranked players and built their game plans accordingly.

In 2001 Brown and Patten were targeted 142 & 94 times respectively. The next four top targets were all RBs, the top target of which was Edwards with 39. I'd say that the game plan passing attacks were focused on two individuals that year.

2002 showed Brown 141, Patten 115 & Branch 68 as the top three targets. The next in line was Faulk with 53 targets. The passing attack was slightly more diversified but not by much.

2003 showed Branch with 104 targets and four others grouped together (Faulk 67, Graham 63 , Brown 60 & Givens 54). This spread shows that Branch was by far Brady's top target, after him the staff used the guys more equally than during most seasons. Of course, David Patten barely played this year due to injury and this offense wasn't nearly the offense this team had in later years. I think these numbers were the result of an injury to the number two guy.

2004 showed a top heavy spread again as Givens 105 emerged, Patten 91 came back & Branch 51 was injured much of the year. Still Graham with 46 targets and multiple running backs with about 30 targets each rounded off the pass attack. Again it was top heavy.

2005 was dominated by Branch 125 and Givens 96 with the next highest target being Faulk with 37. This was a very top heavy year.

2006 showed more of the same with Caldwell at 102 and Watson at 91. Brown made a comeback of sorts with 75 targets. That Watson & Brown show up at all shows the talent limit this team faced during that season in their pass game. Still, the target ratios were top heavy with the next highest after Brown being Faulk at 56.

2007 showed a higher number of targets overall but similar ratios. Moss 160, Welk 145, were far above the next two in Stallworth 75 & Faulk 61.

2009 featured Welk at 162 & Moss at 137 with the next two Edelman 54 & Faulk 53. Watson was next with 41. Top heavy again.

2010 Welk's 123 was far above the next four who were closely grouped in Branch 74, Ahern 64 & Gronk 59. Tate was next with 46. Welk was far and away the number one guy but after that this year was similar to 2003 in the lack of a second top target.

2011 showed probably the best overall balance with four guys receiving significant numbers of targets (Welk 173, Gronk 124, Ahern 113 & Branch 90)

2012 showed a similar spread of targets with Welk 174, Lloyd 131, Ahern 83, Gronk 79 & Woody 55. This isn't as balanced as 2011 but injury surely played a part.

2013 was similar with one player well out in front in number of targets in Edelman w/151. After that the next five targets (Amendola 83, Dobson 72, Verreen 69, Thomkins 69 & Gronk 66) are closely grouped although the drop in numbers reflects the drop in offensive efficiency. I think one can conclude that a healthy Gronk would have skewed these numbers to himself and Edelman keeping with the top heavy approach of other years.

Looking at these numbers I don't see any evidence to indicate that the Pats have ever really veered from featuring certain players far more than others except through necessity. The "Brady throws to the open man" thing is mostly a myth IMO. In fact, I suspect that if one were to compare these target numbers with the efficiency of the targets, one might find that they should have thrown more often to the top ranked guy, at least theoretically. There are too many factors involved to come to an actual conclusion of that nature.

Outstanding post!

As I recall, the "evidence" cited for the "open man" idea was not attempts, but receptions. That the distribution of receptions was far more evenly distributed.

Of course, you are correct that attempts is the more appropriate gauge for what TFB+ was trying to do.
 
This has, interestingly, become one of the better threads on the Planet. Thanks mostly to AWTE, I guess. Moar AWTE!

Yes it has, and we're lucky to have a bunch of good posters here in the forum.

Now, can you imagine how this thread would have turned out, say, last season? If you know what I mean.
 
Yes it has, and we're lucky to have a bunch of good posters here in the forum.

Now, can you imagine how this thread would have turned out, say, last season? If you know what I mean.

Leave him alone man lol
 
I think the open receiver concept came about because in the early years of Brady's career, there was some frequency of 'non-elite' receivers making big plays in crucial moments, and even those higher on the radar were not familiar names around the league. It was repeated regularly in 2002-2006 that Brady was successful despite throwing to 'nobodies'. And Vrabel ;-)

The remark also shows Brady's intelligence; no true leader plays favorites, especially with outsiders ready to jump on and dissect the answer.
 
I still think that the early season problems we see Brady going through again this year is partly the loss of his mentor. Last year he didn't really get in sync until after the bye week.
 
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