Is Mahomes the most dangerous person in the NFL?

[foley11]

Agreed! Baker impressed me a ridiculous amount this season. Fans in Cleveland definitely have something to finally be excited about. Could be the same as Mahomes though, a good season.... Only to follow it up with crap, who knows. But Baker was damn good this year. I was actually happy for Browns fans even though they didn't make playoffs. If he keeps up that high level of play The Browns will be a playoff contender as soon as next season.

How much fun will it be when the Browns finish ahead of the Ravens nd Steelers?


Probably as much fun as everyone else will have when the Jete and Bills win the AFC east for the first time in human memory.

 

[Dwight Schrute]

Even aside from the Super Bowl rings, what Brady has managed to do with wins and losses is simply amazing. Him and Peyton Manning are a once in a life time..... Again not saying Mahomes can't do this..... But its just too hard to judge from one season.

Going back to the 2005 season, Brady has something like 182 wins to 55 losses. Peyton has 136 to 43 losses. And between the two there is 13 Super Bowl appearances in there. It's such a bold statement to make "Mahomes is the next Brady." Every team wants this no doubt..... But it's one thing to have one good season, it's another to consistently do this for the next decade or more.

You lose credibility when you fall into the national rabbit hole and equate Peyton with Brady. I know you’re Colts. But don’t confuse regular season success and playoff success.

 

[Dwight Schrute]

The thing that impresses me most about Mahommes is his ability to make crazy athletic throws. But it is these throws that will eventually be his downfall. He throws the ball like a baseball shortstop, slinging it across his body. And then he makes those throws running to the right and flipping the ball across the field to the left side. If I recall, my coaches used to jump all over our QBs for trying to make that throw. Why? Because of the high probability the throw would be intercepted.

I think that unless Mahommes gets smarter, his eventual downfall will be Interceptions. He looks to be chance taker, and defenses will learn how to bait him into chances he shouldn't take.

I think he does have a high ceiling. He seems smart and very poised for a kid his age. It will be interesting to see how he does when the cast around him changes too. He is surrounded by a ton of talent on that team.

I think the guy missing from your list might that might have as much upside is Baker Mayfield. That kid seems to be a winner.

Bingo.

It’s early. But what I see now is Mahommes more the Peyton role. Gaudy numbers in relatively meaningless regular season tilts and always coming up short in the big moments.

Baker has more of the fire. Brady’s burning edge. He’ll rip your chest open and eat your still beating heart to win.

Mahommes was drafted and culled into a better situation from the start. But long term it could end up being brighter in The Cleve.

Both cast in the shadow of Mt Foxboro though.

 

[Patriots71]

Even aside from the Super Bowl rings, what Brady has managed to do with wins and losses is simply amazing. Him and Peyton Manning are a once in a life time..... Again not saying Mahomes can't do this..... But its just too hard to judge from one season.

Going back to the 2005 season, Brady has something like 182 wins to 55 losses. Peyton has 136 to 43 losses. And between the two there is 13 Super Bowl appearances in there. It's such a bold statement to make "Mahomes is the next Brady." Every team wants this no doubt..... But it's one thing to have one good season, it's another to consistently do this for the next decade or more.

Brady had 21 losses in 2005 for his career. He only has 60 losses in his career now, so not sure where you thought Brady had 55 losses in 2005. Manning had 48 losses by 2005. At no point in those two careers was Manning ever close to Brady in record. For their careers Manning is 186-79, 14-13 in the playoffs. Brady is 207-60 and 30-10 in the playoffs.

If we look at stats. 17 years Manning had 71940 yards 539 td's 251 ints. Brady in 17 years had 70514 yards 517 td's 171 ints. I never understood the, Oh manning was the regular season guy and brady was the post season guy, their regular seasons are almost identical and Brady had the way better record.

 

[John Locke]

Bingo.

It’s early. But what I see now is Mahommes more the Peyton role. Gaudy numbers in relatively meaningless regular season tilts and always coming up short in the big moments.

Baker has more of the fire. Brady’s burning edge. He’ll rip your chest open and eat your still beating heart to win.

Mahommes was drafted and culled into a better situation from the start. But long term it could end up being brighter in The Cleve.

Both cast in the shadow of Mt Foxboro though.

 

[Giant Octopodes]

I think it's way too earlier in Mahomes career to make any kind of long term assessments, good or bad. He played great for most of last year and has a lot of potential.

That's about all I'm willing to say at the moment.

This right here is my point entirely. As a reminder, here are the QBs under 30 who were above average in passer rating last year:

Mahomes, Watson (good but on the Texans, so..), Wentz (two injuries in two years is a big warning sign), Goff (is that his name, or the sound he's making while choking?), Luck (will be 30 next season), Prescott (barely above average). That's it.

I'm not saying he will be the next Brady. If he were it would be great for the NFL, but first I don't think that's likely at all, no one will be, and second it's entirely besides the point.

I do want to take a quick aside to address the points made about Prescott, Luck, and some others with huge expectations placed upon them after great opening seasons. First obviously the seasons which led to those expectations were not comparable, but in part that can be explained away with rules changes sure. Not in whole, but in part definitely.

Second, indeed, most QBs suffer a "sophomore slump". Prescott is actually the perfect example. His rookie year he had a passer rating of like 105. His next year it was 87, so it went from exceptional, to below average. However the next year, this year, it rebounded to 97. He went from exceptional, to below average, to above average.

That pattern (the second year, with tape on them, is Much worse than the first, and then they learn and adjust and things settle into somewhere between the bounds established by those high / low years) is the most common one for QBs in the NFL. But that means he would Still represent a bright spot for QBs under 30, simply because most of them are not great.

However all of that is beside the point. He doesn't Need to actually be great. He just needs to Look great at the moment, and represent exactly what Jaric said, a lot of potential. The fact that he may not actually Be great, and this year may represent a culmination of a lot of factors and he may realize he's playing way above his head actually makes it even More likely the "worst case scenario" I detailed (where he turns down a 200+ million deal which was very publicly offered, and very publicly transitions to another sport) may occur.

All he needs to do is get lucky and ball out one more year. Certainly plenty of folks have played great two years in a row, Wentz is actually a prime example of that, between last year and this, though he looks like he may not last 10 years in the NFL never mind 20. But if Mahomes DOES play amazingly next year as well (it's just one more year), and then retires, it would serve as a very visible representation of what people already fear is happening behind the scenes, a siphoning of talent and more than anything else Potential out of the NFL, and talks with folks below the college level confirm that is indeed happening, enrollment in below college football is WAY down.

Right now the NFL is 'fine' because you can convert athletes into other sports relatively easily, and the NFL has the perfect mix of huge money potential and lots of roster spots. But if it's seen very publicly that folks are starting to choose health over money, with someone providing both that example and some guidance as to which sport to switch to, I truly believe a significant portion of the viewers would switch as well.

And the equivalents given by others are not really equivalent. Sanders quit because he was on the Lions, for example, and who could blame him? No highly visible NFL QB has turned down a 9 digit contract to play in another sport, it just hasn't happened. And as Mahomes is hyped more than anyone else right now, and just had the best 2nd year (1st as starter) in NFL history statistically speaking, he is in the prime spot to be the one to do the damage. I don't think he will turn it down, I don't think this is a particularly likely hypothetical. I'm just saying, it's not impossible, and him doing it would be more damaging than anyone else doing it, at this point in time.

 

[spacecrime]

If you compare the 1st half of the season to the 2nd half you'll see that Mahomes put up 24 TDs/ 6 int,s and 2571 yards the 2nd half. That's almost exactly half his years stats of 50/12/5097

Chiefs were 5-3 the 2nd half not 4-4

He did his part . The defense was the reason they took 3 losses and they lost those 3 by a total of 11 points.

You're correct. They finished the season 3-3, which still isn't great. As Dwight said, they finished 4-4 including playoffs, which is what I must have been looking at.

I know how you love your stats, but no one cares about any stat other than number of points scored.

No one ever won a superbowl by out-yardage-ing the other team.

A premier QB will rise above, not every game, but certainly over the last 8 games of the season, when games are much more important, he should be better than 4-4.

Drew Bledsoe, when a reporter told him his bad game was due to WR drops and a shoddy defense, said, "QBs get more credit than they deserve and more blame than they deserve. It goes with the territory.

Mahomes will never be great if he doesn't win the big games. Archie Manning was a terrific QB IMO but you never hear his name mentioned because he played for shitty Saints teams.

You want to talk about Mahomes having the potential to the best QB to never win nothing since Dan Marino, fine. It's still stupid to talk about what a QB will do, but knock yourself out.

You want to say that Mahomes had better stats in 2018 and won the MVP, I say, So What? Who gives a shit?

If Mahomes has 20 more stat-filled regular seasons while ending the way he did, he'll never be mentioned with great QBs. He'll be what he was this year: a guy who doesn't win big games.

Lastly, saying "he did his part" is ridiculous. He didn't win the most important games he played in 2018.

Either he will overcome this and play better against good teams when it matters or he will have 20 seasons of crap resumes.

STATS ARE FOR LOSERS, which is fitting because Mahomes has he stats and when push came to shove in 2018, he ended up a loser.

We won't know if that's who he is or not until February 2019. "Going to do" means nothing. "Did" is all that matters.

 

[spacecrime]

This right here is my point entirely. As a reminder, here are the QBs under 30 who were above average in passer rating last year:

No one except ESPN and NFLN talking heads talk about regular season passer ratings.

We are looking at a guy who compiled a lot of stats while losing the big games against big teams.

IF HE CHANGES and wins a big one or two, I'll take notice, but 20 years of high passer ratings will earn him the Dan Marino 2.0 trophy.

Until then, all this talk is premature and silly.

 

[Big/Sky/Fly]

Revisit this when the Chiefs go 7-9 next year.

He is the current Kapernick flavor of the year...unless he proves otherwise.

He could be legit. He could flame out quick too.

 

[Hawg73]

In the NFL???? ROFL

Mahomes is the most dangerous man in the universe.

Appropos of nothing, I caught the beginning of the NFL's Honors Awards (or something like that) the other night and Steve Harvey was doing the opening monologue during which he says: "I was so proud that there were 4 black QBs starting in the playoffs and then I realized it was 5 when Pat Mahomes took his helmet off".

Decent one-liner. Mahomes cracked up as did everybody.

 

[TylerD]

You lose credibility when you fall into the national rabbit hole and equate Peyton with Brady. I know you’re Colts. But don’t confuse regular season success and playoff success.

I’m not comparing Manning to Brady what so ever. What I’m saying is it is not easy to have a double digit win season year after year after year. Nowhere did I say Peyton is better than Tom. My point however is, I don’t know if Mahomes is that good to take the Chiefs to the playoffs year after year let alone make it to a Super Bowl or multiple Super Bowls. That remains to be seen. I could quite easily see the Chiefs going 8-8 next season.

---------- Post added at 02:00 PM ---------- Previous post was at 01:58 PM ----------

How much fun will it be when the Browns finish ahead of the Ravens nd Steelers?


Probably as much fun as everyone else will have when the Jete and Bills win the AFC east for the first time in human memory.

Browns will win their division ten times over before the Bills and Jets do hahaha

---------- Post added at 02:01 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:00 PM ----------

Brady had 21 losses in 2005 for his career. He only has 60 losses in his career now, so not sure where you thought Brady had 55 losses in 2005. Manning had 48 losses by 2005. At no point in those two careers was Manning ever close to Brady in record. For their careers Manning is 186-79, 14-13 in the playoffs. Brady is 207-60 and 30-10 in the playoffs.

If we look at stats. 17 years Manning had 71940 yards 539 td's 251 ints. Brady in 17 years had 70514 yards 517 td's 171 ints. I never understood the, Oh manning was the regular season guy and brady was the post season guy, their regular seasons are almost identical and Brady had the way better record.

I meant since 2005 sorry. The way I worded it is wrong. I meant from 05 to now. I couldn’t remember the exact stats before 2005.

 

[TylerD]

Brady had 21 losses in 2005 for his career. He only has 60 losses in his career now, so not sure where you thought Brady had 55 losses in 2005. Manning had 48 losses by 2005. At no point in those two careers was Manning ever close to Brady in record. For their careers Manning is 186-79, 14-13 in the playoffs. Brady is 207-60 and 30-10 in the playoffs.

If we look at stats. 17 years Manning had 71940 yards 539 td's 251 ints. Brady in 17 years had 70514 yards 517 td's 171 ints. I never understood the, Oh manning was the regular season guy and brady was the post season guy, their regular seasons are almost identical and Brady had the way better record.

My point wasn’t to make this about Manning/Brady. I was simply saying it’s not easy to have multiple win seasons like Manning and Brady. Also I’ve never really heard anyone say Manning is better than Brady in the regular season. personally. They both were great in regular season. Brady is more successful with more rings yes.

 

[Dwight Schrute]

Gotcha Tyler

 

[TylerD]

Gotcha Tyler

 

[Yehoodi]

I think that is the point I am trying to make. I agree completely with you, that Mahomes doesn't have to put up identical numbers like this season. However Chiefs fans are making out like he will be the next Brady/Manning.... And I am not saying he won't.... He could be. But it is extremely hard to put together 11 plus win seasons and make playoffs every single year like Brady and Manning. A down year for Brady was 2005 and they still went 10-6 and made it to the second round of the playoffs. A down year for Peyton was 10-6 winning the division in 2010. Not many qb's can do this. Even the top QB's like Brees, Rodgers, Big Ben, Rivers etc... miss the playoffs quite often. Rodgers has now missed the playoffs 3 times. Rivers has missed the playoffs more times than I can count. It is extremely difficult to consistently make playoffs and get double digit wins for your teams. It remains to be seen if Mahomes can do that. Will Mahomes be a decent QB in the NFL? Yes I think he will be.... Is he going to be a God like qb and lead his team to 12 plus wins every season.... Well that remains to be seen.

Agreed, i think we talked about this or perhaps i chatted with another, but Brady/Manning have many 11/12 win seasons. And guys like Rodgers and Brees do not, although I do like Brees alot.

Folks love Rodgers, but he has not been able to do what Brady and Manning have done.

Be interesting to see if Mahomes can do the same, time will tell. My guess is that he will not be able to do so and will fall in the same path as other solid/great QBs of the last 15 years.

 

[sprocketboy]

If you had the choice of one of these guys to be "the Next Guy," how would you rank these?


1. Goff
2. Mayfield
3. Mahomes
4. Garoppolo
5. Watson

 

[Big/Sky/Fly]

If you had the choice of one of these guys to be "the Next Guy," how would you rank these?


1. Goff
2. Mayfield
3. Mahomes
4. Garoppolo
5. Watson

It all depends...but:

JimmyG
Mayfield
Kermit
Goff
Watson

...would be my ranking as of now.

 

[TommyD420]

If you had the choice of one of these guys to be "the Next Guy," how would you rank these?


1. Goff
2. Mayfield
3. Mahomes
4. Garoppolo
5. Watson

1) Mayfield
2) Watson
3) Garoppolo
4) Mahomes
5) Goff

Goff shouldn't be on the list, he's a bust. He's the same QB he was when he was drafted. Everything's slow, everything's late.

 

[sprocketboy]

Goff shouldn't be on the list, he's a bust. He's the same QB he was when he was drafted. Everything's slow, everything's late.

Full disclosure: Cal bias.

Having said that, I find it difficult to classify the starting QB of the current NFC champions as a "bust."

You are effectively predicting that Goff will become the new Kaepernick, only without the frizzy hair and anthem kneel-downs.

Based on the steady improvement of his teams' records from one year to the next (Cal and LAR), I just can't see "bust." Unless you think he's a so-called "system quarterback?" :shrug_n:

Team records with Jared Goff as starting QB

• 2013 at Cal: 1-11
• 2014 at Cal: 5-7
• 2015 at Cal: 8-5, including a win at the Armed Forces Bowl over Air Force
• 2016 at LAR: 0-7, but ... Jeff Fisher
• 2017 at LAR: 10-6, Pro Bowl, One Playoff Game (lost to the Falcons)
• 2018 at LAR: 13-3, Pro Bowl, Super Bowl (lost to the Patriots)

Source

 

[TommyD420]

Full disclosure: Cal bias.

Having said that, I find it difficult to classify the starting QB of the current NFC champions as a "bust."

You are effectively predicting that Goff will become the new Kaepernick, only without the frizzy hair and anthem kneel-downs.

Based on the steady improvement of his teams' records from one year to the next (Cal and LAR), I just can't see "bust." Unless you think he's a so-called "system quarterback?" :shrug_n:




Source

Rex Grossman was an NFC Champion. Jake Plummer and Bubby Brister ran this offense-for-dummies with no issues and had success as a result.

Colin Kaepernick had a better peak than Jared Goff. You put your bias out there, now watch him, then the opposing defense when it is actually trying. Everything slow. Everything late. He is the same guy now, that he was when he came out of college. The same. A quality backup to low-end starter just on physical tools alone, but certainly not the #1 overall pick.

Everything slow. Everything late. :shrug: