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Data-driven decision-making is science and art.
PManning is no longer in the picture so let's see if Kacsmar can forget his anti-Patriots bias in his assessment.
It appears he has, at least professionally. This is what he thinks privately.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ns-guide-to-nfl-conference-championship-gamesOnly twice in Conference Championship history have both road teams won (1992 and 1997), so those rooting for the Harbaugh family should take note of that. The home team is 56-28 (.667) all-time on Championship Sunday. The home team has won six consecutive AFC Championship games, which is the longest streak ever. The only longer streak is the eight straight wins by the home team in the NFC Championship from 1980 to 1987.
Ravens at Patriots: Is third time a charm for Harbaugh and Flacco?
Both New England and Baltimore are in the AFC Championship for the third time each since 2007. The Ravens have yet to break through in the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era, losing in Pittsburgh (23-14 in 2008) and of course New England (23-20) last year.
But here they are again, marking just the sixth instance of a rematch or series of rematches in the Conference Championship. The previous rematches share some similar trends, which is bad news for Baltimore.
The 1976 Raiders and 1994 49ers shared the same struggles with their respective rivals from Pittsburgh and Dallas, but finally came through at home in that third meeting to go on to win the Super Bowl.
- 1970-71 Dallas vs. San Francisco: Dallas won on the road, then at home.
- 1974-76 Oakland vs. Pittsburgh: Oakland lost at home, lost on the road, then finally won at home.
- 1978-79 Houston vs. Pittsburgh: Steelers won both games at home.
- 1986-87 Cleveland vs. Denver: Denver won on the road, then at home.
- 1992-94 Dallas vs. San Francisco: San Francisco lost at home, lost on the road, then finally won at home.
New England will be looking to do what the 1978-79 Steelers did, and that’s sweep their opponent at home. But it will not be easy.
Baltimore needs to get off to a fast start. The Ravens trailed 13-0 in the first quarter in Week 3, but did come back for a 31-30 win. However, that game was in Baltimore, which is one of the best home-field advantages in the league.
But Foxboro might be the best home-field advantage.
These records are hard to believe, but they are accurate. You really have to get ahead of New England right away to have a chance. Sure, Kevin Kolb and the Cardinals won 20-18 earlier this season in New England, but that is looking like the biggest fluke of the season.
The Ravens will likely be unable to repeat their 24-0 lead they took in the first quarter in the 2009 AFC Wild Card game, but getting down two scores early will be a death sentence this week.
Sustaining offense will be key for Baltimore, as their defense is going to need rest after facing 87 offensive snaps in each of the last two games. That does not include all the plays that became penalties either. These veterans have been on the field for a lot of plays, and the Patriots love to run the hurry-up faster than anyone.
The Ravens are the 17th team since 1940 to have even two games in the same season in which they faced 87-plus offensive plays. They are the fourth team to do so in back-to-back games, joining the 1986 49ers, 1984 Packers and 1976 Bears.
Did it matter for those teams?
Consider the 1984 Packers, a 1-5 team, played the following week in a snow game in Denver and only allowed three points on defense to John Elway. The 1976 Bears did allow 28 points to the Raiders, who won the game on Cliff Branch’s 49-yard touchdown catch in the fourth quarter.
The 1986 49ers allowed 14 points early, but made up for it late with two interceptions returned for touchdowns in a 31-17 win. They were playing a 1-6 Green Bay team.
Does it matter that this is January, and the team has played a long season, or that this is another road playoff game after last week’s double-overtime thriller? How about the fact New England is better at running the ball (by a good margin too) than Indianapolis or Denver?
Alas, there is not enough evidence to make anything conclusive here. The Ravens are one game away from the Super Bowl. No one is thinking about being tired.
If there is a positive for the Ravens here, it would be that their defensive stars have not played as much this year because of injuries. The playoffs have been the only two games this season where Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata and Ed Reed were all on the field.
That’s a good reason to ignore a lot of the season stats for Baltimore’s defense, which were not as strong as usual. Injury is why.
The offense can also argue they cannot be judged under what was Cam Cameron’s offense. He was fired and Jim Caldwell was promoted in Week 15. It was a disastrous first game against Denver, but the Ravens have piled up big numbers in their last three full games with the starters on offense:
If you want a team that is peaking at the right time, it would be Baltimore. These three games were against pretty good competition, and the offense was dynamic, Flacco had three of his best games, and the defense was limiting points and making plays.
- Giants (Week 16): Scored 33 points, produced 533 yards, and Flacco passed for 309 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions and a rushing touchdown.
- Colts (Wild Card): Scored 24 points, produced 439 yards, and Flacco passed for 282 yards and two touchdowns on just 12-of-23 passing.
- Broncos (Divisional): Scored 31 points (offense), produced 479 yards, and Flacco passed for 331 yards and three touchdowns.
The 2012 Ravens could be like that 2011 Giants kind of kryptonite for New England, having already beaten them. New England’s last six playoff losses have all been to teams they played in the regular season that year.
Like Eli Manning last year, Flacco has talked about being an elite (or the best) quarterback, and he already has a game-winning drive against Brady’s Patriots this year. He should have had the game-winning touchdown pass in last year’s AFC Championship. Lee Evans, Sterling Moore and Billy Cundiff are all gone from this year’s game.
Also like Manning, Flacco loves the vertical throws this season. He is 24-of-83 on passes thrown at least 21 yards this season, and has six touchdowns with no interceptions. In the playoffs, he has hit 8-of-12 deep passes for three touchdowns.
The New England defense is improved from Week 3, and the addition of Aqib Talib will likely lock up with Torrey Smith. Talib can limit those deep balls, which makes one think this needs to be an Anquan Boldin kind of game. Flacco can’t keep hitting these plays forever, and he even missed a couple in Denver.
Most would think Flacco is too inconsistent to keep up this high level of play, and will falter this week on the road, where he historically struggles. But if he can keep away from turnovers and make some big plays on third down, the Ravens are definitely in this game late.
The last six meetings between these teams, all since 2007, have been very close except for Baltimore’s 33-14 rout in 2009. Usually the Ravens choke in the end, as was detailed here, which you can read as a further preview about this budding rivalry.
Just like in Week 3, I am once again going with New England, having learned a lesson from last week. You just have to trust the Patriots at home.
There are still plenty of reasons to like Baltimore, as the Rob Gronkowski injury is another advantage. Hopefully the game is at least as good as last season’s. This is not the time for a 2012-style marquee blowout.
But if you think the Ravens are the team of destiny and Ray Lewis is going to get that Hollywood ending, then here’s one last fact: the No. 4 seed is 6-1 in the Conference Championship since the current playoff format started in 1990.
Who was the only team that lost?
It was the 2006 Patriots against No. 3 Indianapolis.
Final score predictions
Last year I had the Ravens winning 26-23 in New England, but Lee Evans and Billy Cundiff had other ideas. Just going to play it safe this time around. Of the 84 Conference Championship games, only 18 have ended with a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter or overtime, including both games last season. Historically, it is the playoff round with the lowest percentage of close wins.
Whatever happens, hopefully incredible special-teams errors are not a deciding factor like a year ago.
- 49ers over Falcons, 23-17
- Patriots over Ravens, 27-23
Scott Kacsmar writes for Cold, Hard Football Facts, NBC Sports, Colts Authority, and contributes data to Pro-Football-Reference.com and NFL Network. You can visit his blog for a complete writing archive, and can follow him on Twitter at @CaptainComeback.
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It appears he has, at least professionally. This is what he thinks privately.
