Looking at the Patriots - 2014

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Patriots4ever said:
I'm sick of seeing and hearing this "weak division" crap. What division is good aside from the NFCW?

Why do Colt fans always say that? When Denver wins their weak division last year, nobody said a thing. I just don't get it. There's like 2 good divisions in football right now, and they're both in the NFC
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Ummm it is weak. Aside from the Patriots the rest of the teams in your division are mediocre at best.

Why that upsets you I'm not sure. We're talking about probabilities to make the playoffs. The Patriots are incredibly consistent. The rest of the teams in the AFCE are not (or rather they are, just consistently bad-mediocre). Those two factors together result in the patriots being the highest probability to make the playoffs.

:shrug:

By the way, I freely admit the rest of the teams in the AFCS suck.
 
Patriots4ever said:
The AFCE was once the best division in the NFL.
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Last season the AFCE had the best out of division record in the AFC. THe Pats posted a 12-4 record but the Dolphins and Jets were both 8-8 at .500. The Bills were only a game away from .500 too. The AFCE is not a pushover anymore.
 
2014 Depth Chart: New England Patriots

Gordon McGuinness | June 5, 2014

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[Chart last updated 6/5/14]​
Notes
• Not many people would tell you that Devin McCourty is elite, but at PFF we believe he is. Two years ago he was a solid cornerback for the Patriots but, amassing a +42.0 grade over the past two seasons, he has emerged as one of the best safeties in the league.
• Though defensive end Rob Ninkovich isn’t a great pass rusher, he excels against the run. In fact, last season, no 4-3 defensive end had a higher grade against the run than the former Purdue Boilermaker. That he isn’t great at getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks keeps him from being rated higher, but he’s still a handy defensive player to have around.

• Dan Connolly had been a pretty average player for the Patriots in recent years before 2013, but his play really dropped off last year, particularly as a pass blocker. His Pass Blocking Efficiency Rating was 45th out of the 59 guards with enough qualifying snaps, and his pass blocking grade the fourth lowest, leading you to question if he can recover back to the solid player he once was.
• Before the playoffs, linebacker Jamie Collins’ fairest rating would probably have been “Not Enough Information” but, after an impressive postseason, I feel confident enough that he is a good starter, and wouldn’t be shocked to see him go a step further during 2014. That playoff game against the Indianapolis Colts really was something to behold.
Roster Battles
1. Backup Quarterback
Tom Brady is obviously the team’s starting quarterback heading into 2014, but the question of who backs him up remains. They drafted Ryan Mallett in the third round of the 2011 draft, but this year selected rookie Jimmy Garoppolo in the second round, bringing on board a potential quarterback of the future. There have been rumors that Mallett will be traded, though how likely that is remains cloudy, but if he’s still in New England, he’ll likely remain as Brady’s top backup in 2014.
2. Cornerback
The Patriots’ big splash in free agency was bringing in cornerback Darrelle Revis after he was released by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That wasn’t the only signing they made, however, with Brandon Browner also arriving and likely to start opposite Revis, with Kyle Arrington the most logical player to take the slot role. Don’t forget about Alfonzo Dennard and Logan Ryan, though, with the duo combing to play 1,335 snaps during the 2013 regular season.
3. Wide Receiver
While they lack a true No. 1 wide receiver, the Patriots have five players who are likely to compete to be Brady’s favorite targets from the wide receiver position. Danny Amendola played well in 2013, but the problem for him continued to be staying healthy and getting on the field. Julian Edelman, stepping up in place of Wes Welker went on to have the best season of his career. Then you have second-year receivers Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins, both of whom showed flashes of talent if not consistency. Finally, the team added Brandon LaFell, the Carolina Panthers’ third leading receiver in 2013. That should add up to a healthy competition throughout the offseason, with the Patriots surely hoping one of the youngsters steps up in 2014.
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https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/05/12/2014-depth-charts/
Click here to see all of the depth charts we’ve covered.
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KT = avg starter; Dobson = below avg starter. Goes along with my personal thinking. Production will depend on opportunity and looks from Brady. Edelman will get the most looks, then Amendola if he learns the playbook and his reads well. Dobson's foot may be a hindrance to his development. Boyce and KT have both looked good in camp per reports. LaFell is showing ability in OTAs but is lost on assignments. The Pats' nomenclature is completely different than the Panthers'. Our skill positions are far better now than a year ago when returning WR had a total of 21 receptions from Brady the year before.



Our weak links on offense are easily seen to be our interior OL so I'm hoping a rookie comes through for us at least 1 position (Wendell).



PFF says overall we have better quality personnel on D than on O. That's a first in a long, long time but I'm glad to see it.
 
chevss454 said:



=========================

KT = avg starter; Dobson = below avg starter. Goes along with my personal thinking. Production will depend on opportunity and looks from Brady. Edelman will get the most looks, then Amendola if he learns the playbook and his reads well. Dobson's foot may be a hindrance to his development. Boyce and KT have both looked good in camp per reports. LaFell is showing ability in OTAs but is lost on assignments. The Pats' nomenclature is completely different than the Panthers'. Our skill positions are far better now than a year ago when returning WR had a total of 21 receptions from Brady the year before.



Our weak links on offense are easily seen to be our interior OL so I'm hoping a rookie comes through for us at least 1 position (Wendell).



PFF says overall we have better quality personnel on D than on O. That's a first in a long, long time but I'm glad to see it.
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That depth chart is missing Josh Boyce ........
 
Thinking ahead here.

Should KT and JB continue their solid play come camp they'll combine with AD to give the Pats 3 young and promising WR's with upside to build around. Adding Edelmen, as the locked-in vet, the WR roster is set at 4.

If the Pats only keep 5 WR's, it'll be interesting to see who of Amendola or LaFell earn that last spot.

Camp will ultimately tell but, if I had to guess .... right now I'd think (a healthy) Amendola over LaFell in which case, maybe LaFell is used more as the move TE?
 
Pneumonic said:
Thinking ahead here.

Should KT and JB continue their solid play come camp they'll combine with AD to give the Pats 3 young and promising WR's with upside to build around. Adding Edelmen, as the locked-in vet, the WR roster is set at 4.

If the Pats only keep 5 WR's, it'll be interesting to see who of Amendola or LaFell earn that last spot.

Camp will ultimately tell but, if I had to guess .... right now I'd think (a healthy) Amendola over LaFell in which case, maybe LaFell is used more as the move TE?
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both

Lafells takes one TE spot with Hooman the blocking TE and Amendola is starting beside Edelman. the question is will Gronk be the third TE (starter) or will it be a tried Vet until he returns?
 
Oswlek said:
Thompkins looked much better in the pre-season, but based solely on the regular season I can find no reason to think he has a higher ceiling than Dobson.

According to footballoutsiders, Aaron surpassed Kenbrell in every single meaningful statistic.
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Ok. I can find reason to think KT is better. Lots of reasons in fact. Just look over my previous posts comparing the 2 and you'll see why KT is the better player to me. As to ceiling...KT played college WR for 2 years and last year was his 3rd playing big boy WR. I'd say he's come an awful long way in that length of time and he's already a better technician than Dobson.

KT is better than Dobson in so many ways to me:

Let's look at KTs advantages as a Route runner

a. Excellent release off the LOS vs press coverage
b. Efficient breakdowns to make sharp cuts without telegraphing
b. Doesn't round his corners
c. Attacks the ball against physical CB play
d. Fights off defenders with physical play
e. Uses his body to shield defenders
f. Doesn't allow himself to be redirected by a defender

KT developed a habit of jumping for balls he didn't have to jump for. It was something I never saw him do in college. He's aware of the problem and he's said he worked in the off season to stop it.

Dobson is a finesse player who had issues fighting through redirection and catching against physical play. Throw him open and he's beautiful to watch but he just isn't a physical player who wins against contact.

Both players had their issues with drops and I attributed that to rookie nerves. I'm not concerned about either of them since they're both good natural hands catchers. They've both shown excellent body control tracking balls.

Athletically, KT is faster and quicker than Dobson. (Boyce is faster than KT) He's tougher and plays tougher than Dobson. KT played well enough to keep Boyce on the sidelines as a healthy scratch for long periods of time - 8 straight games at 1 point. I would like to have seen him stay healthy to end the season but concussions and hip injuries derailed him the last 4-5 games.

Dobson has an advantage over KT in length. Dobson is a boundary WR. KT can play boundary but he's better at flanker. However, they don't play the same position or run the same routes so this really shouldn't be the debate. Dobson is our only pure boundary WR (maybe LaFell) bc of his length so he'll be on the field while KT fights for playing time behind Amendola and Edelman. KT's opportunities will be limited, iow, unless injury to Amendola or Edelman gets him more playing time. Dobson has no competition for his position unless LaFell, who has always been an inside WR, suddenly becomes a boundary WR.

Dobson - 6'3"/205; arm 33; hand 9.0

KT - 6'1"/195; arm 32.3; hand 8.68
 
I know you like KT, Chevs. I do as well, which is why I am puzzled by how many have him on the bubble. I've also read all of these on prior scouting reports and was impressed at your detailed analysis.

That said, if Thompkins was that much better than Dobson at all off those skill sets, it would have manifested itself on the field. Not only did it not, but Dobson had clearly leapfrogged Thompkins even prior to KT being hurt.

Of course that could be due to Dobson fitting a specific need on the team after Gronk and Amendola returned better than KT. Thompkins' relative lack of experience is also an interesting factor.

But the fact remains that Dobson - despite numerous deficiencies that are repeatedly pointed out - outperformed Thompkins last year. Maybe you're advance scouting dead on, I just don't see a reason to be so dismissive of Dobson based on the most important factor, on field results.
 
Oswlek said:
I know you like KT, Chevs. I do as well, which is why I am puzzled by how many have him on the bubble. I've also read all of these on prior scouting reports and was impressed at your detailed analysis.

That said, if Thompkins was that much better than Dobson at all off those skill sets, it would have manifested itself on the field. Not only did it not, but Dobson had clearly leapfrogged Thompkins even prior to KT being hurt.

Of course that could be due to Dobson fitting a specific need on the team after Gronk and Amendola returned better than KT. Thompkins' relative lack of experience is also an interesting factor.

But the fact remains that Dobson - despite numerous deficiencies that are repeatedly pointed out - outperformed Thompkins last year. Maybe you're advance scouting dead on, I just don't see a reason to be so dismissive of Dobson based on the most important factor, on field results.
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Year two is huge, Thompkins I think will be fine, a more than servicable WR

but you are correct, the eye test of the two standing on the sideline makes you long for what Dobson can do... I just hope he had an addadicktome when his foot was operated on and he comes back ready to fight for the ball.
 
Oswlek said:
I know you like KT, Chevs. I do as well, which is why I am puzzled by how many have him on the bubble. I've also read all of these on prior scouting reports and was impressed at your detailed analysis.

That said, if Thompkins was that much better than Dobson at all off those skill sets, it would have manifested itself on the field. Not only did it not, but Dobson had clearly leapfrogged Thompkins even prior to KT being hurt.

Of course that could be due to Dobson fitting a specific need on the team after Gronk and Amendola returned better than KT. Thompkins' relative lack of experience is also an interesting factor.

But the fact remains that Dobson - despite numerous deficiencies that are repeatedly pointed out - outperformed Thompkins last year. Maybe you're advance scouting dead on, I just don't see a reason to be so dismissive of Dobson based on the most important factor, on field results.
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I didn't dismiss Dobson's ability and I tried to point out that the 2 are not competing for the same position even though they are both WRs. Dobson has no clear competition for boundary WR. KT is competing with Amendola, Edelman and Boyce for play time at 2 positions and sometimes 3. I don't agree that Dobson leapfrogged KT for that reason. When KT was healthy, he was the better WR, however.
 
chevss454 said:
I didn't dismiss Dobson's ability and I tried to point out that the 2 are not competing for the same position even though they are both WRs. Dobson has no clear competition for boundary WR. KT is competing with Amendola, Edelman and Boyce for play time at 2 positions and sometimes 3. I don't agree that Dobson leapfrogged KT for that reason. When KT was healthy, he was the better WR, however.
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I hear you, and I said above that Dobson may have fit a specific need that KT didn't, but I still see no evidence for the last statement. Dobson had a better catch rate, better DYAR, better DVOA, more yards and equal TDs.

I still think you are misrepresenting what actually happened last year and reverting back to your initial opinion of Dobson (which I still hold in high regard). For instance:

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/category/_/name/offensive-snaps

As late as the second Jet game, KT was still the primary outside receiver. Then he had 14 snaps against Miami and the following week, this happened...

Analysis: Dobson has graduated to the No. 1 spot in the recent weeks as the "X" receiver. That was a role held by fellow rookie Kenbrell Thompkins earlier in the season, but Dobson has passed him on the depth chart the last two weeks and his production has been impressive. Thompkins was a healthy scratch on Sunday. ... Amendola still isn't all the way back, as he played mostly in the three-receiver set and split some No. 2 reps with Edelman.
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A couple things from this. First, Thompkins was the primary X receiver at the start of the year, so even if he was competing with Amendola and Edelman, he still had a foothold on the outside position, one he should have easily held if he was as superior to Dobson as you've maintained.

Not only did Dobson overtake him, KT fell so far that he was a healthy scratch even though Amendola wasn't all the way back.

That continued for the Carolina game and the first half of the Broncos, until Dobson was injured, forcing Thompkins back on the field. KT was injured early in the next game and from there both players were too injured to glean much useful data from.

I could see the argument that Dobson caught up to KT with just that boundary skill and the team decided that, with the two being equal there, KT would be more valuable as a catchall backup. That might explain why Dobson was elevated to primary X, but it doesn't explain why KT dropped to averaging barely more than single digit snaps and even being inactive. Especially when Amendola was only moderately healthy/effective.

The team apparently decided Dobson had surpassed Thompkins and, despite playing 30 less snaps on the season, Aaron had better cumulative stats and better rate stats. I agree that Dobson fails the eyeball test in some ways, but I just can't reconcile the gap you see between them with what actually happened on the field.
 
Oswlek said:
I know you like KT, Chevs. I do as well, which is why I am puzzled by how many have him on the bubble. I've also read all of these on prior scouting reports and was impressed at your detailed analysis.

That said, if Thompkins was that much better than Dobson at all off those skill sets, it would have manifested itself on the field. Not only did it not, but Dobson had clearly leapfrogged Thompkins even prior to KT being hurt.

Of course that could be due to Dobson fitting a specific need on the team after Gronk and Amendola returned better than KT. Thompkins' relative lack of experience is also an interesting factor.

But the fact remains that Dobson - despite numerous deficiencies that are repeatedly pointed out - outperformed Thompkins last year. Maybe you're advance scouting dead on, I just don't see a reason to be so dismissive of Dobson based on the most important factor, on field results.
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As chev pointed out, Dobson is really the ONLY boundary option on the roster. Didn't have to necessarily fight for snaps. Snaps = opportunities. Opportunities = stats.

KT had much more of a battle.
 
chevss454 said:



=========================

KT = avg starter; Dobson = below avg starter. Goes along with my personal thinking. Production will depend on opportunity and looks from Brady. Edelman will get the most looks, then Amendola if he learns the playbook and his reads well. Dobson's foot may be a hindrance to his development. Boyce and KT have both looked good in camp per reports. LaFell is showing ability in OTAs but is lost on assignments. The Pats' nomenclature is completely different than the Panthers'. Our skill positions are far better now than a year ago when returning WR had a total of 21 receptions from Brady the year before.



Our weak links on offense are easily seen to be our interior OL so I'm hoping a rookie comes through for us at least 1 position (Wendell).



PFF says overall we have better quality personnel on D than on O. That's a first in a long, long time but I'm glad to see it.
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According to the colors, Vellano is an average starter, and Chris Jones and Will Smith are poor starters? :huh:
 
chevss454 said:



=========================

KT = avg starter; Dobson = below avg starter. Goes along with my personal thinking. Production will depend on opportunity and looks from Brady. Edelman will get the most looks, then Amendola if he learns the playbook and his reads well. Dobson's foot may be a hindrance to his development. Boyce and KT have both looked good in camp per reports. LaFell is showing ability in OTAs but is lost on assignments. The Pats' nomenclature is completely different than the Panthers'. Our skill positions are far better now than a year ago when returning WR had a total of 21 receptions from Brady the year before.



Our weak links on offense are easily seen to be our interior OL so I'm hoping a rookie comes through for us at least 1 position (Wendell).



PFF says overall we have better quality personnel on D than on O. That's a first in a long, long time but I'm glad to see it.
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What I can't figure out is how they rate DJ Williams and Tavon Wilson as "Average Starters" when they had maybe 50 snaps between them last season, or how they have Allen and Aikens as "Below Average".
 
Dwight Schrute said:
As chev pointed out, Dobson is really the ONLY boundary option on the roster. Didn't have to necessarily fight for snaps. Snaps = opportunities. Opportunities = stats.

KT had much more of a battle.
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Another reason that LaFell was signed. He is an 'X' receiver as well, plus he blocks and has run some "F" TE routes.
 
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