Looking at the Patriots - 2020

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chevss454 said:
Did you even bother to click on the links I provided that show Brady's performance?
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Yes, and not sure that has anything to do with what I said. If receivers are covered and Brady does not want to throw a pick, his choices are, throw it away, run, take a sack, or try and get it close enough to where its a toss up of who catches it. I think Brady made too many throws that he did not think his guy would get it and that the defense could, and while that might have hurt his accuracy rating, it probably saved some turnovers. Everything affects everything. I asked how was our receivers graded, and you didnt say anything, so am I to assume they were good? If not, then how can a QB still be good?

I get it, Brady is not Brady anymore, we all get we all hear it, but I think we might see a better season from him this year as far as stats and accuracy....can you guess why? Open receivers make the QB's job a bit easier and while younger Brady might have been able to salvage a few better passes last year, it would have still not been great. See 2013....
 
Patriots71 said:
Yes, and not sure that has anything to do with what I said. If receivers are covered and Brady does not want to throw a pick, his choices are, throw it away, run, take a sack, or try and get it close enough to where its a toss up of who catches it. I think Brady made too many throws that he did not think his guy would get it and that the defense could, and while that might have hurt his accuracy rating, it probably saved some turnovers. Everything affects everything. I asked how was our receivers graded, and you didnt say anything, so am I to assume they were good? If not, then how can a QB still be good?

I get it, Brady is not Brady anymore, we all get we all hear it, but I think we might see a better season from him this year as far as stats and accuracy....can you guess why? Open receivers make the QB's job a bit easier and while younger Brady might have been able to salvage a few better passes last year, it would have still not been great. See 2013....
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Those are Brady's personal QB stats. That's what it has to do with him.


A better season from Brady will come from within him - a better attitude, his renewed passion for the game and a renewed chip on his shoulder. Yeah, I believe he'll have better stats this next year than last year. He's always done better when he's motivated to do better. Example: see his performance before and after JimmyG was drafted.
 
Patriots71 said:
I think we might see a better season from him this year as far as stats and accuracy....can you guess why?
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No need to guess. Brady's biggest jump was not his second year starting, when he temporarily fell to earth, but when BB drafted his replacement and referenced Brady's age and contract situation in his post-draft presser. That lit a bonfire under Brady's butt.

This year BB in essence said, "Go away. We'll be better off with an untested rookie."

I expect Brady to have not just a better season than his admittedly middle-of-the-pack season last year, but be on fire this year. In his mind he is probably looking to finish the job he almost did in 2007. He's nothing if not ultra-competitive and has had a don't-diss-me chip on his should since he was drafted. Payback is the name of his game. He did it to BB in 2014 and he'll try his absolute best in 2020.

Get your popcorn!
 
spacecrime said:
No need to guess. Brady's biggest jump was not his second year starting, when he temporarily fell to earth, but when BB drafted his replacement and referenced Brady's age and contract situation in his post-draft presser. That lit a bonfire under Brady's butt.

This year BB in essence said, "Go away. We'll be better off with an untested rookie."

I expect Brady to have not just a better season than his admittedly middle-of-the-pack season last year, but be on fire this year. In his mind he is probably looking to finish the job he almost did in 2007. He's nothing if not ultra-competitive and has had a don't-diss-me chip on his should since he was drafted. Payback is the name of his game. He did it to BB in 2014 and he'll try his absolute best in 2020.

Get your popcorn!
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Brady lead the league in TD's his second year starting....the team was shit. I dont care how motivated a QB is, they have to have something around them. For all the cries of team game its funny that nobody actually thinks it is. I think Brady always tries to be the best, he is competitive, but yeah having better weapons helps. It would help stidham, it would help anymore. Brady is 43, I dont know what he will do in Tampa, but I know he will have a better shot than last year of being good. As I said....2013.
 
The WRs were bad, and Tom may have had an off year, but a lot of bad things could have been solved by an effective run game. They had built the offense to be able to run the football, and every first down they tried it seemed like a wasted play that got stuffed before it got started. Was it the Titian’s game where it was like 1/2 a yard to the end zone, and they couldn’t punch it in three tries in a row? Come on. That was flat out awful, and at a summary of the run game all year. Even if the WRs had been healthy and Harry living up to his draft slot, this offense was built around the run and it was very ineffective. Losing devlin really hurt, but a lot of guys did not step up, namely Sony.
 
Dwight Schrute said:
How can this be possible? Just in their own division. Cincy was worst overall. So Cincy should be playing a last place schedule and Balt a first place schedule.
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Though this is true, let's look at what that means this year-


Common Opponents
4 games vs the other 2 teams in the division (Browns and Steelers)

4 games vs all opponents in a division in their conference (AFC South)

4 games vs all opponents in a division not in their conference (NFC East)



Differing Opponents
2 games vs same place finishers in the other 2 divisions in their conference. This year the Bengals get the Dolphins (5-11) and the Chargers (5-11) while the Ravens get the Patriots (12-4) and the Chiefs (12-4)
2 games vs each other. The Ravens face the Bengals (2-14) twice, while the Bengals face the Ravens (14-2) twice


Basically the difference in record between them is larger than the difference in record between the division opponents they get as part of their finish. Position based opponents give the Ravens +14 wins vs the opponents of the Bengals, but facing the Ravens themselves gives the Bengals +24 wins on their opponents vs facing the Bengals.
 
spacecrime said:
No, those guys were on the field. You didn't see them on TV but they weren't thrown to much, but they were there. (318 targets to Edelman and WHite, 269 targets to all the other WRs, REs, RBs, TEs, etc.)

“If you put him out there, I’m going not to throw him the ball,” Brady said, relaying that conversation with Belichick, during a radio interview with Howard Stern.

NFL Game Pass is free this month. Sign up and watch all the Pats games of previous years, including the all-22 version where you can watch the receiver patterns for each play and see who was open and who wasn't. If you think Harry and Meyers were never open, and the White and Edelman always were, you're in for a surprise. Or you can do like Middy and ignore every fact that contradicts what you want to believe.
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I am responding to this particular post but really this is in reference to the whole idea of Brady throwing to his Binkies and ignoring wide open receivers.



Yes, Brady is no longer playing at his peak, and that includes missing open guys. But if you think that throwing to a narrow subset of available receivers is a unique problem of Tom Brady, who is so far past the record for most different targets for TDs they stopped referencing it, and that was while always on the same team, your perspective has been terribly warped.



Rodgers, the media darling of the day after Manning but before Mahomes, does that CONSTANTLY. However that's not because he's particularly terrible at it- just average, maybe a bit below. Watch some games from Detroit, or Philly, or tons of other places reputed to have above average quarterback play. See how many different targets they throw to, compared to Brady and Brees, who are relatively unique in their propensity to freely distribute the ball.


That quote was not saying that he would not throw to open guys because he didn't trust them. It was saying he would sometimes get to that point with guys, based on performance, and when that happened he let Belichick know. The other half of that was Belichick agreeing and seeing it the same way. Brady threw to the guys where doing so maximized the chance of a successful play in his estimation. Most of the time, assuming they have competent guys out there he can trust, that means whomever is open. Sometimes it doesn't.
 
Giant Octopodes said:
But if you think that throwing to a narrow subset of available receivers is a unique problem of Tom Brady, who is so far past the record for most different targets for TDs they stopped referencing it, and that was while always on the same team, your perspective has been terribly warped.
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I don't see my original post for some reason, but I hope I didn't say or imply that this was unique to Brady, because that isn't what I meant, which was that last year Brady did ignore open receivers. It was a reply to someone, who said Brady always throws to the open man.

I agree that many or even most other QBs do the same and to a far greater degree but again I wasn't comparing 2019 Brady to anyone except pre- 2017 or so Brady, so I really don't care about what any other QB does. Brady is better than all of them, and I'm not saying he never throws to any of the WRs or TEs or RBs. He throws to all of them, but he has his favorites, Edelman and White, who were on the receiving end of nearly HALF his targets last year, sometimes at the expense of lesser receivers who were open.

This was something I said last year and I stand by it, but it is a decidedly unpopular stance and I understand that.

You can believe whatever you want, but the coaches tape doesn't lie.
 
spacecrime said:
I don't see my original post for some reason, but I hope I didn't say or imply that this was unique to Brady, because that isn't what I meant, which was that last year Brady did ignore open receivers. It was a reply to someone, who said Brady always throws to the open man.

I agree that many or even most other QBs do the same and to a far greater degree but again I wasn't comparing 2019 Brady to anyone except pre- 2017 or so Brady, so I really don't care about what any other QB does. Brady is better than all of them, and I'm not saying he never throws to any of the WRs or TEs or RBs. He throws to all of them, but he has his favorites, Edelman and White, who were on the receiving end of nearly HALF his targets last year, sometimes at the expense of lesser receivers who were open.

This was something I said last year and I stand by it, but it is a decidedly unpopular stance and I understand that.

You can believe whatever you want, but the coaches tape doesn't lie.
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I am going to disagree with Brady ignores the open man until the end of days. That is just silly. Brady has his favorites because guess why? They get open. ALl QB's have their favorites. Brees threw to Thomas 140 times, the next closest guy was like 40. This is not new, QB's like to throw to guys that are going to make plays, not guys that are not open or run the wrong route, or cannot get separation. But I have shown this already when Myers was on the field, he got thrown to, that game everyone was hurt he got thrown to. Myers was far down the list of receivers and did not really see a lot of the field throughout the year like most undrafted free agents. Brady had no issue throwing to Mitchell when he was here...guess why? Remember the superbowl? Brady like all QB's want to have a successful play.
 
spacecrime said:
I don't see my original post for some reason, but I hope I didn't say or imply that this was unique to Brady, because that isn't what I meant, which was that last year Brady did ignore open receivers. It was a reply to someone, who said Brady always throws to the open man.

I agree that many or even most other QBs do the same and to a far greater degree but again I wasn't comparing 2019 Brady to anyone except pre- 2017 or so Brady, so I really don't care about what any other QB does. Brady is better than all of them, and I'm not saying he never throws to any of the WRs or TEs or RBs. He throws to all of them, but he has his favorites, Edelman and White, who were on the receiving end of nearly HALF his targets last year, sometimes at the expense of lesser receivers who were open.

This was something I said last year and I stand by it, but it is a decidedly unpopular stance and I understand that.

You can believe whatever you want, but the coaches tape doesn't lie.
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In regards to that we can certainly agree, though I may quibble regarding 2017 in particular I agree with the broader principle with no qualms at all. Coaches tape, stats, the eye test, by every measure I look at it's evident.



I was just pointing out that while indeed Brady contributed to the issues on offense last year, the way some folks talk imply to me that they don't get it, and if so I think they're in for a RUDE awakening post-Brady. I chose your reply just because it was near the end of that conversation, but some quotes:


"The “Brady always throws to the open receiver” argument died a decade ago."
"Over the last 3 years or so, Brady stares down receivers and doesn't even see wide open guys. If you go to the games, you notice it more."
"I see a huge problem with Brady throwing most to his binkies. It is popular to say that they weren't open and that is a whole other discussion, but Brady admitted twice that he told BB he would only throw to certain players. He said he didn't trust them but how much did he work with them to get on the same page. No appearance in OTAs and when Meyers didn't run a correct route, Brady didn't go over what went wrong, he screamed at Meyers on the sidelines. Not helpful."


Just saying, if our complaint is that Brady was not a good enough teammate, didn't put in enough work, and didn't throw to the open man, and we can't win without better QB play... I think some folks are in for a rude awakening regarding what it looks like to not have Brady.
 
Giant Octopodes said:
In regards to that we can certainly agree, though I may quibble regarding 2017 in particular I agree with the broader principle with no qualms at all. Coaches tape, stats, the eye test, by every measure I look at it's evident.



I was just pointing out that while indeed Brady contributed to the issues on offense last year, the way some folks talk imply to me that they don't get it, and if so I think they're in for a RUDE awakening post-Brady. I chose your reply just because it was near the end of that conversation, but some quotes:


"The “Brady always throws to the open receiver” argument died a decade ago."
"Over the last 3 years or so, Brady stares down receivers and doesn't even see wide open guys. If you go to the games, you notice it more."
"I see a huge problem with Brady throwing most to his binkies. It is popular to say that they weren't open and that is a whole other discussion, but Brady admitted twice that he told BB he would only throw to certain players. He said he didn't trust them but how much did he work with them to get on the same page. No appearance in OTAs and when Meyers didn't run a correct route, Brady didn't go over what went wrong, he screamed at Meyers on the sidelines. Not helpful."


Just saying, if our complaint is that Brady was not a good enough teammate, didn't put in enough work, and didn't throw to the open man, and we can't win without better QB play... I think some folks are in for a rude awakening regarding what it looks like to not have Brady.
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We have wide open guys? Not according to every measured Grade last year. I am not sure Myers was the issue because Myers didnt play much, when he did, Brady threw him the ball. He didnt have those catches from Stidham, those were Brady passes. As far as OTA's just stop. They had 50 freaking practices together and you blame a week long period. The fact is Harry missed 8 games and Myers was our 4th receiver, ok, thats why they didnt light up the stat sheet, thats it.
 
Patriots71 said:
We have wide open guys? Not according to every measured Grade last year. I am not sure Myers was the issue because Myers didnt play much, when he did, Brady threw him the ball. He didnt have those catches from Stidham, those were Brady passes. As far as OTA's just stop. They had 50 freaking practices together and you blame a week long period. The fact is Harry missed 8 games and Myers was our 4th receiver, ok, thats why they didnt light up the stat sheet, thats it.
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Belichick canceled the final two OTA sessions. He clearly doesn't care about winning anymore. Sank the entire season right there.
 
Giant Octopodes said:
... I think some folks are in for a rude awakening regarding what it looks like to not have Brady.
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True enough, one way or the other. Though we would have found out in a year or two anyway. He's already played longer than anyone thought possible.
 
Big/Sky/Fly said:
If Stidham sucks, then let him be amazing at it. All the way to 1 win...if there's a year to be terrible, this year would be ideal.
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Indeed. At least for this season, I see zero point whatsoever in going 8-8, 7-9. If they stumble out of the gates and Stidham looks like ass, trade off some expensive and aging pieces and see if you can field a weak enough squad by design go for Lawrence. Divest for greater returns later.
 
KontradictioN said:
Indeed. At least for this season, I see zero point whatsoever in going 8-8, 7-9. If they stumble out of the gates and Stidham looks like ass, trade off some expensive and aging pieces and see if you can field a weak enough squad by design go for Lawrence. Divest for greater returns later.
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:thumb:
 
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