My FA/Draft Plan

[mayoclinic]

You're too hung up on calling Welker a slot wr. He had 1569yrd and 9 td's. If he weren't a shifty little white dude. He'd be called a "beast" by everyone. I don't care how he gets his yardage. He gets it. That's what matters.

He's still 30, and nearly $10M/year ($11M/year average over 2 years if you franchise him twice) in cap hit is too much to spend, IMHO. And I'm fully appreciative of him as a "beast".

 

[mayoclinic]

Gronk and Hernandez are both entering year 3 of 4 year deals, so any multi-year deal with WW and with a UFA WR will affect how much the Pats can spend on the TEs. They should look at restructuring one or both of them either next year, or certainly in 2013. Hernandez should command something similar to Jermichael Finley money - $7M/year. If Gronk continues on his 2011 form, he will be a unique case, and the highest priority for the team since re-signing Brady.

BTW, a hybrid TE can stretch the field as well as a classic WR. That's part of why I like the idea of picking up Dallas Clark. My first offseason choice would have been Jermichael Finley, who often lines up at WR and is great at stretching defenses, but the Packers wisely kept him off the market for 2 more years. As things currently stand, he, Jimmy Graham, Gronk and AHern will all be FAs after 2013. WOW.

 

[midgar8784]

You're too hung up on calling Welker a slot wr. He had 1569yrd and 9 td's. If he weren't a shifty little white dude. He'd be called a "beast" by everyone. I don't care how he gets his yardage. He gets it. That's what matters.

He is a slot receiver and his skill set is limited because he is a short little white dude. He is not beating a defender one on one deep, he is not making a catch over a defender or beating him to the ball. He is a receiver that catches balls short over the middle and has great ability to get yards after catch and with that he can be taken out of a gameplan with a good defense that do not have to put safeties over receivers on the outside and can double him. I do care how he gets his yardage, because you have to have a player that offsets what he cannot do. He has a particular strength, but just having that strength is not all an offense needs.

 

[Patsfaninpa]

He is a slot receiver and his skill set is limited because he is a short little white dude. He is not beating a defender one on one deep, he is not making a catch over a defender or beating him to the ball. He is a receiver that catches balls short over the middle and has great ability to get yards after catch and with that he can be taken out of a gameplan with a good defense that do not have to put safeties over receivers on the outside and can double him. I do care how he gets his yardage, because you have to have a player that offsets what he cannot do. He has a particular strength, but just having that strength is not all an offense needs.

So, you'd rather complete 30pct of your passes 3/10 for 54 yards. You're beast can avg. 18 per catch. I'll take 70pct on shorter passes with yac. 7/10 FOR 79 Yards. My team wins!

 

[midgar8784]

So, you'd rather complete 30pct of your passes 3/10 for 54 yards. You're beast can avg. 18 per catch. I'll take 70pct on shorter passes with yac. 7/10 FOR 79 Yards. My team wins!

Who said that? I did not say I wanted someone instead of welker, I said welker's strength is limited over a top flight receiver. In other words for 10 mil a year, that is a receiver that can go get balls everywhere on the field, deep, short, over the middle, beat corners one on one, go get passes, actually catch a pass even if he has to raise his arms up in the air...things like that. Welker fits this offense very well, but if he were in an offense as a number 1 on the outside and asked to beat double teams and grab passes over defenders, well he would not do well.....this team needs one of those....right now ocho and Branch are not getting that done and defenders do not commit a safety to them, which in turn hurts everyone else.

 

[Patsfaninpa]

Who said that? I did not say I wanted someone instead of welker, I said welker's strength is limited over a top flight receiver. In other words for 10 mil a year, that is a receiver that can go get balls everywhere on the field, deep, short, over the middle, beat corners one on one, go get passes, actually catch a pass even if he has to raise his arms up in the air...things like that. Welker fits this offense very well, but if he were in an offense as a number 1 on the outside and asked to beat double teams and grab passes over defenders, well he would not do well.....this team needs one of those....right now ocho and Branch are not getting that done and defenders do not commit a safety to them, which in turn hurts everyone else.

Welker does draw a lot of double teams. Usually, a lb and a db. His lack of atleticism sure didn't hinder our offense or other receivers like Gronk and Hernandez.

 

[midgar8784]

Welker does draw a lot of double teams. Usually, a lb and a db. His lack of atleticism sure didn't hinder our offense or other receivers like Gronk and Hernandez.

Well actually it did, if welker could line up outside and beat corners and make tough catches over defenders, than we would not be looking for one this offseason. Like I said, he is what he is, its a great strength for this team, but its not the only strength we need, he has limits that other receivers do not have.. If we get a good outside receiver, they will not be able to double welker, which is what we need. You think they were scared of Branch or Ocho on the outside? Most of the time, they were single covered which left all the defenders go at the middle of the field.

 

[Smudger]

actually catch a pass even if he has to raise his arms up in the air.

Next time you get flamed for polarising a nuanced discussion with a silly exaggeration, remember this comment before you get defensive.

 

[mayoclinic]

With free agency 2 days away, here's what I would do if I were in BB/Caserio's shoes:

Internal FA's"

- Continue to work on a long term (3-4 year) deal with Wes Welker that would lower his cap number
- Sign Dan Connelly, Kyle Love and Mark Anderson to long term deals. I've never been a huge Matt Slater fan, but realistically he's a core STer, and he should probably be signed as well.
- Try to sign Andre Carter to a short-term deal, depending on what the Pats do in the Mario Williams sweepstakes (see below) and with other external FAs.
- Tender Brian Hoyer at a 1st or 2nd round level (probably 2nd, to be realistic). I see Ryan Mallett stepping up to the #2 role in 2012, and I like the idea of trading Hoyer. Cleveland missed out on the RGIII derby. Unless they sign Matt Flynn or like Ryan Tannenhill so much that they take him at #4 (Miami at #8, Seattle at #12 and Arizona at #13 make trading back risky), a cost-effective alternative would be to trade for Hoyer. They have lots of extra picks. I'd settle for Hoyer for #68, or for a 2013 2nd round pick (I would trade #68 for a 2013 2nd in any case).
- Re-sign James Ihedigbo if the money is right. If someone wants to pay him outside of the Pats salary structure there are plenty of other options, but he played well enough in 2011 to merit a call back if he wants to return.

I'm not a huge BJGE fan and don't see him being as good a fit into the kind of offense I would like to see the Pats run as Vereen, Ridley and Woodhead. I can see the Pats making him an offer, but I wouldn't stretch very far to keep him.

I assume Gary Guyton is gone.

I'm assuming Brian Waters will be back. I'm not so sure about Matt Light - if he wants to finish his contract fine, but I wouldn't reach for him if he decides to hang it up or wants more money.

External FA's:

- Sign Dallas Clark, assuming he passes a physical. I'd rather have Clark than any WR in FA as a cost-effective addition to the team. He will stretch the field, can be lined up at WR as well as TE, and is a consummate profession. The combination of Gronk, Hernandez and Clark would be deadly.
- I'm not averse to signing a UFA WR who can stretch the field at reasonable money - Brandon Lloyd and Robert Meachem come to mind - but I wouldn't break the bank.
- Go after Mario Williams. He would be a difference maker. It's a bit of a long shot, but not out of the question. Adam Carriker would be a quality 3-4 DE addition if the Pats lose out on Williams. Both would be great, but even more unlikely. However, as much as Andre Carter brought to the table last year, he is 33 and coming off an injury. I wouldn't mind using Carter's $$$ to sign Carriker, and then getting Williams to replace Carter. Carriker turns 28 in May.

The Draft:

- If any of the top 4 DTs (Cox, Brockers, Poe and Still, in roughly that order) are on the board by pick #20 or so, I would consider a trade up. A lot depends who is still available, and how the Pats project the picks falling. Snagging one of those guys at 27 would be a coup, but if the Pats think they will be gone then I'd consider trading up. 27+94 gets us to around 20-21. 27+127 gets us to around 24-25. Denver at 25 is a prime candidate to take a DT. Pittsburgh at 24 might be willing to move back a few slots. Rumors are that they are interested in Dont'a Hightower to replace James Farrior, and he would probably be available if they traded back. Particularly if the Pats got Carriker in FA, they would have the best DL they've had since 2008, with considerable flexibility to play both 3 and 4 man fronts.
- I'm not a fan of the "pass rushers" in this draft, and wouldn't take any of Mercilus, Perry, Branch or Curry at #31. I'd take another big DL if one of them slipped, but with Green Bay in the market I have a hard time seeing 2 guys lasting to 27 and 31. I think the Pats trade back. The market won't support the kind of trade they did with NO in 2011, so it's more like what they did in 2010. I could see trading with Indy to move from 31 to 34, especially if Indy wants to jump ahead of the Giants and snag Coby Fleener to pair with Andrew Luck and replace Dallas Clark. The Pats would pick up Indy's 1st pick in the 5th round (currently 127, but probably around 130 or so after comp picks are assigned). 130 (42 points) + 34 (560 points) works out to 602 points, vs. 600 for pick #31, according to the trade value chart.
- At 34 I see the Pats going DB. Mark Barron will likely be gone, and personally I'd rather a CB/FS hyrbid than Barron, who is too much like Patrick Chung. Stephon Gilmore will also probably be gone. But Alfonzo Dennard should be available. Tampa Bay at 35 is rumored to like Dennard, and needs DB help. If the Pats think he would last further, another trade back (again, as they did in 2011) could be in order to pick up a bit more real estate.
- At 48 I'd like to see the Pats pick up a DE/OLB. I'm not a Vinny Curry or Andre Branch fan, but they could be options. If either Hightower or Upshaw slipped, they could also be options. Boise St.'s Shea McClellin is climbing draft boards fast, and has good versatility. My personal favorite is Oklahoma DE/OLB Ronnell Lewis. I'll go with Lewis for now.
- At 63 the Pats would probably go BPA. This could be another DL or DB, an OL, or a TE or WR. Guys who could be available in this range include DLs Alameda Ta'amu, Josh Chapman or possibly even Kendall Reyes or Jerel Worthy if they slip, DBs Chase Minnifield and Trumaine Johnson, OLs Mitchell Schwartz and Amini Sitatolu, WR Joe Adams, and TEs Dwayne Allen and Orson Charles (both of whom seem to be slipping). Assuming the Pats sign Dallas Clark and get a FA WR, I'd go either DL or OL. If Jerel Worthy or Alameda Ta'mu are available here they may be too good to pass up. But I'm going to go for now with Cal OL Mitchell Schwartz, a guy who can play all 5 OL positions well, and who Tony Pauline believes will be a top 60 pick. The Cal coaches call Schwartz the smartest OL they have ever coached, and he has a combination of savvy, toughness and versatility that makes him a great fit for the Pats. A "poor man's Barrett Jones".
- As stated above, I would trade #68 acquired for Brian Hoyer for a 2013 2nd round pick.
- I'm guessing that either 94 or 127 could be used in a trade up. If both are available, along with #130 or so from the Colts. But if the Pats still have pick #94, then I'd go OL if the Pats went DL at #63, and DL if the Pats went OL. Since I went OL, I'd go with Alabama DT Josh Chapman here if he's still available. With Vince Wilfork on the wrong side of 30, a true NT to keep Wilfork fresh and guard against injury would be valuable.
- If the Pats still have 124, along with 130 or so from the Colts, then I'd go after a DB and a WR. Guys will fall. I like Jamell Fleming from Oklahoma, Josh Norman from Coastal Carolina and at DB. I like Chris Owusu from Stanford or Greg Childs from Arkansas if they are available - both have injury issues, but huge upside. Joe Adams, Jarius Wright, AJ Jenkins, Tommy Stretter and Jeff Fuller could also be options in the late 4th/early 5th round. Someone will be available.

Working through all of that, my dream draft would look something like:

27. Pats get lucky and Cox or Brockers slips through. I'l call it Cox for now. Both have 3-4/4-3 versatility.
34. Alfonzo Dennard, DB, Nebraska. 5'10" 204#. Very strong and physical. Can play FS or CB.
48. Ronnell Lewis, DE/OLB, Oklahoma. 6'2" 253#. Tremendously phsyical, brutal hitter. Very versatile, can play in both 3-4 and 4-3 schemes. Great STer.
63. Mitchell Schwartz, OL, Cal. 6'5" 317#. Tough, durable, savvy, experiences OL who can play all 5 positions. Scar will love him. Tough call between Schwartz and Amini Sitatolu.
94. Josh Chapman, DT, Alabama. 6'1" 317#. True NT backup for Vince Wilfork. Tough kid who played injured most of 2011. If Alameda Ta'amu lasts this far I'd probably take him over Chapman, but it's close.
127. Jamell Fleming, DB, Okalhoma. A steal here. Another big CB with the ability to play FS.
130. Chris Owusu, WR, Stanford. 6' 200#. A bigger, faster version of Deion Branch. Would likely have been a 2nd round pick if not for the concussions. Or substitute who you wish.

I would also see the Pats going aggressively after UDFAs, especially at WR, OG/C, OT, DL and DB.

My prospective 2012 Pats' roster would look something like this:

Offense (24-25):

- QB(2): Tom Brady, Ryan Mallet. Only 2 will be active on game day anyway, with Welker/Edelman as the emergency backups. The Pats can keep 1-2 guys on the PS, or sign a vet if someone gets injured.

- RB(4): Shane Vereen, Stephen Ridley and Danny Woodhead. Either BJGE if he re-signs, or a late round/UDFA rookie or low-cost veteran picked up during the summer months.

- WR(6): Wes Welker, a UFA WR (I'll call it Robert Meachem for now), Chad Ochocinco if he restructures, Julian Edelman and Matt Slater. A rookie WR such as Chris Owusu or Greg Childs could fight it out with Tiquan Underwood for the last spot.

- TE(3-4): Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Dallas Clark. I would personally like to keep 4 TEs, with Dorin Dickerson being an option for the 4th spot. Alge Crumpler could also come back if his shoulder is healed.

- OT(4): Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Marcus Cannon and Mitchell Schwartz. Cannon and Schwartz both have the potential to play guard as well (and Schwartz looked good at center during Senior Bowl practices), giving the Pats a lot of versatility. All the better if Matt Light returns for one more year - one of Schwartz/Cannon can be used as a guard.

- OG/C(5): Logan Mankins, Dan Connolly and Brian Waters. Nick McDonald seems like a keeper as a backup OG/C. Either Schwartz or Cannon could be counted as a guard, or the Pats could keep Ryan Wendell, who I personally consider a JAG.

Defense (25-26):

DL(6-7): Vince Wilfork is the cornerstone. A rookie DE/DT like Fletcher Cox, Michael Brockers or Devon Still would provide an impact player next to Wilfork with 3-4/4-3 flexibility. Adam Carriker would take Shawn Ellis' spot, and provide a quality 3-4 DE. Kyle Love and Myron Pryor are quality reserves who should get a fair amount of playing time. A rookie like Josh Chapman would also provide quality depth and flexibility. If there is a 7th spot then Ron Brace, Brandon Deaderick and Gerard Warren can fight it out f (I favor Deaderick, with Brace cut and Warren on speed dial in case of injury).

DE/OLB(4-5): If the Pats win the Mario Williams sweepstakes, then a group of Mario Williams, Mark Anderson, Rob Ninkovich, Ronnell Lewis (or another rookie) and Jermaine Cunningham would be very solid. If they lose out on Super Mario, then Andre Carter returns. Either way, this would be a very strong group, and Cunningham will be on the bubble and will have to play his way onto the roster. If Markell Carter is progressing then he could battle Cunningham, or could make Cunningham expendable to be traded for a late round pick.

ILB(4): Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes, Dane Fletcher and Jeff Tarpinian are givens. Gary Guyton moves on. Tracy White is +/- in my book.

DB(9-10): Devin McCourty, Pat Chung, Ras-I Dowling, Alfonzo Dennard and Kyle Arrington are the nucleus, with Sterling Moore also getting considerable playing time. All except Chung can play CB (slot or outside) or FS, giving tremendous depth and flexibility. A rookie like Jamell Fleming, Antwaun Molden, James Ihedigbo, Josh Barrett, Sergio Brown and Malcolm Williams can fight it out for another 3-4 spots. You can never have too many quality DBs.

Special Teams:

K Stephen Gostkowski, P Zoltan Mesko and LS are set. There's a ton of ST talent on the regular roster.

I like that team.

OK, time to update the OP based on new information and discussion so far.

1. 2012 cap: $120.6M.

2. The Pats are curently $16.2M under the cap with around 53 players signed or tendered (including PS players and reserve/futures contracts):
- QB(3): Brady, Mallett, Mike Hartline
- RB(5): Vereen, Ridley, Woodhead, Lousaka Polite, Eric Kettani
- WR(6): Welker, Ochocinco, Edelman, Underwood, Kerry Taylor, Britt Davis
- TE(2): Gronkowski, Hernandez
- OL(11): Solder, Vollmer, Light, Cannon, Mankins, Waters, Nick McDonald, Ryan Wendell Matt Kopa, Kyle Hix, Donald Thomas
- DL(5): Wilfork, Pryor, Brace, Deaderick, Aaron Lavarias
- DE/OLB(4): Ninkovich, Cunningham, Markell Carter, Alex Silvestro
- LB(6): Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher, Tarpinian, Christan Cox, Mike Rivera
- DB(9): McCourty, Chung, Dowling, Arrington, Moore, Brown, Barrett, Ross Ventrone, Malcolm Williams
- ST(3): Mesko, Gostkowski, Danny Aiken

3. Unsigned, but do not bring back:

- Dan Koppen, OC
- Kevin Faulk, RB
- Deion Branch, WR
- Gerard Warren, DL (on speed dial)
- Shaun Ellis, DL (probably retires; possible speed dial)
- Gary Guyton, LB
- Niko Koutouvides, LB
- Bret Lockett, DB
- Nate Jones, DB

4. Borderline do not bring back, or bring back only if cheap

- Andre Carter, DE - depends on other signings; he's 33 and coming off an injury, and there's time to see how things play out
- BJGE, RB
- Antwaun Molden, DB
- James Ihedigbo, DB
- Tracy White, LB - depends on whether he's viewed as just a STer or not

5. Other ways to potentially free up cap space

- Sign Wes Welker to a 2-3 year deal with a lower cap hit
- Restructure Chad Ochocinco's contract, or cut him
- Matt Light retires - $8M savings
- Possible roster cuts: Ron Brace, Lousaka Polite

6. I'm not a capologist, but I'm hoping the Pats could increase their cap space from $16.2M to $25-$30M (including $8M if Matt Light retires) and that about $5M is needed for rookie contracts, giving $20-25M for re-signings and external FAs

7. Internal re-signings

- Brian Hoyer - tender at a 2nd round level ($1.9M) and potentially trade
- Mark Anderson
- Dan Connolly
- Kyle Love
- Matt Slater
- Potentially any of the "borderline guys" listed above, depending on external signings and the money

8. External FA signings:

- Mario Williams - the big prize. Still a long shot. Would require something like $35-40M guaranteed money and around $12M/year. Bringing back Andre Carter is a cheaper short-term alternative.
- A 3-4 DE: Adam Carriker, Jamaal Anderson or Kendall Langford
- A WR: Pierre Garcon (probably too much money), Brandon Lloyd (too many issues), Josh Morgan (too many suitors) or Robert Meachem. For now I'll go with Meachem as the most likely option.
- A 3rd TE. Alge Crumpler could be brought back if his shoulder is healed. Dallas Clark is an intriguing short-term option who shouldn't break the bank.

 

[midgar8784]

OK, time to update the OP based on new information and discussion so far.

1. 2012 cap: $120.6M.

2. The Pats are curently $16.2M under the cap with around 53 players signed or tendered (including PS players and reserve/futures contracts):
- QB(3): Brady, Mallett, Mike Hartline
- RB(5): Vereen, Ridley, Woodhead, Lousaka Polite, Eric Kettani
- WR(6): Welker, Ochocinco, Edelman, Underwood, Kerry Taylor, Britt Davis
- TE(2): Gronkowski, Hernandez
- OL(11): Solder, Vollmer, Light, Cannon, Mankins, Waters, Nick McDonald, Ryan Wendell Matt Kopa, Kyle Hix, Donald Thomas
- DL(5): Wilfork, Pryor, Brace, Deaderick, Aaron Lavarias
- DE/OLB(4): Ninkovich, Cunningham, Markell Carter, Alex Silvestro
- LB(6): Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher, Tarpinian, Christan Cox, Mike Rivera
- DB(9): McCourty, Chung, Dowling, Arrington, Moore, Brown, Barrett, Ross Ventrone, Malcolm Williams
- ST(3): Mesko, Gostkowski, Danny Aiken

3. Unsigned, but do not bring back:

- Dan Koppen, OC
- Kevin Faulk, RB
- Deion Branch, WR
- Gerard Warren, DL (on speed dial)
- Shaun Ellis, DL (probably retires; possible speed dial)
- Gary Guyton, LB
- Niko Koutouvides, LB
- Bret Lockett, DB
- Nate Jones, DB

4. Borderline do not bring back, or bring back only if cheap

- Andre Carter, DE - depends on other signings; he's 33 and coming off an injury, and there's time to see how things play out
- BJGE, RB
- Antwaun Molden, DB
- James Ihedigbo, DB
- Tracy White, LB - depends on whether he's viewed as just a STer or not

5. Other ways to potentially free up cap space

- Sign Wes Welker to a 2-3 year deal with a lower cap hit
- Restructure Chad Ochocinco's contract, or cut him
- Matt Light retires - $8M savings
- Possible roster cuts: Ron Brace, Lousaka Polite

6. I'm not a capologist, but I'm hoping the Pats could increase their cap space from $16.2M to $25-$30M (including $8M if Matt Light retires) and that about $5M is needed for rookie contracts, giving $20-25M for re-signings and external FAs

7. Internal re-signings

- Brian Hoyer - tender at a 2nd round level ($1.9M) and potentially trade
- Mark Anderson
- Dan Connolly
- Kyle Love
- Matt Slater
- Potentially any of the "borderline guys" listed above, depending on external signings and the money

8. External FA signings:

- Mario Williams - the big prize. Still a long shot. Would require something like $35-40M guaranteed money and around $12M/year. Bringing back Andre Carter is a cheaper short-term alternative.
- A 3-4 DE: Adam Carriker, Jamaal Anderson or Kendall Langford
- A WR: Pierre Garcon (probably too much money), Brandon Lloyd (too many issues), Josh Morgan (too many suitors) or Robert Meachem. For now I'll go with Meachem as the most likely option.
- A 3rd TE. Alge Crumpler could be brought back if his shoulder is healed. Dallas Clark is an intriguing short-term option who shouldn't break the bank.

WR(6): Welker, Ochocinco, Edelman, Underwood, Kerry Taylor, Britt Davis

Wow when you list them all out like that it looks worse than I thought....now that is a crappy receiving core right there. Can we at least count players who have actually caught passes in the NFL before?

 

[Patsfaninpa]

You think they were scared of Branch or Ocho on the outside? Most of the time, they were single covered which left all the defenders go at the middle of the field.

Agree one thousand pct. We need to replace one or both of them. But, Wes Welker has played tremendously in his 5 seasons here. He deserves to be paid like the premier player that he is. He's not an outside the number receiver obviously. But, he has arguably been the best slot receiver in the history of the NFL over 5 years. Making him a premier player IMO.

 

[midgar8784]

Agree one thousand pct. We need to replace one or both of them. But, Wes Welker has played tremendously in his 5 seasons here. He deserves to be paid like the premier player that he is. He's not an outside the number receiver obviously. But, he has arguably been the best slot receiver in the history of the NFL over 5 years. Making him a premier player IMO.

He should not get paid along the lines of a johnson, or a fitzgerald he is just not a complete receiver like they are, so no 10 mil a year is way way too much for him. If a team wanted to give him that then I would let him go to them. His production is very good, but its also part of where he plays. If another team employs that, then he would be a good fit there, if not, then he would not be worth much to them. Hell Branch was our number 1 wideout and superbowl mvp and they would not give him 7 mil a year in his prime. The Patriots know what these guys can do and not do, and they place a figure on that.

 

[king of kings]

I agree with all your internal resigns. I hope Carter comes back Him & Anderson were the best Pass rushers . We have had in a long time. We do need to still address OLB postion. That we have been weak at for years.

 

[BostonTim]

BTW, a hybrid TE can stretch the field as well as a classic WR. That's part of why I like the idea of picking up Dallas Clark. My first offseason choice would have been Jermichael Finley, who often lines up at WR and is great at stretching defenses, but the Packers wisely kept him off the market for 2 more years. As things currently stand, he, Jimmy Graham, Gronk and AHern will all be FAs after 2013. WOW.

After which you may see a 'sea change' in the TE's lowly status in the "Tagging" hierarchy (only punters/kickers get tagged for less).
The world is clearly seeing a new perception of the TE's intrinsic value. that will change to real dollars soon enough.

Cheers, BostonTim

 

[chevss454]

OK, time to update the OP based on new information and discussion so far.

1. 2012 cap: $120.6M.

2. The Pats are curently $16.2M under the cap with around 53 players signed or tendered (including PS players and reserve/futures contracts):
- QB(3): Brady, Mallett, Mike Hartline
- RB(5): Vereen, Ridley, Woodhead, Lousaka Polite, Eric Kettani
- WR(6): Welker, Ochocinco, Edelman, Underwood, Kerry Taylor, Britt Davis
- TE(2): Gronkowski, Hernandez
- OL(11): Solder, Vollmer, Light, Cannon, Mankins, Waters, Nick McDonald, Ryan Wendell Matt Kopa, Kyle Hix, Donald Thomas
- DL(5): Wilfork, Pryor, Brace, Deaderick, Aaron Lavarias
- DE/OLB(4): Ninkovich, Cunningham, Markell Carter, Alex Silvestro
- LB(6): Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher, Tarpinian, Christan Cox, Mike Rivera
- DB(9): McCourty, Chung, Dowling, Arrington, Moore, Brown, Barrett, Ross Ventrone, Malcolm Williams
- ST(3): Mesko, Gostkowski, Danny Aiken

3. Unsigned, but do not bring back:

- Dan Koppen, OC
- Kevin Faulk, RB
- Deion Branch, WR
- Gerard Warren, DL (on speed dial)
- Shaun Ellis, DL (probably retires; possible speed dial)
- Gary Guyton, LB
- Niko Koutouvides, LB
- Bret Lockett, DB
- Nate Jones, DB

4. Borderline do not bring back, or bring back only if cheap

- Andre Carter, DE - depends on other signings; he's 33 and coming off an injury, and there's time to see how things play out
- BJGE, RB
- Antwaun Molden, DB
- James Ihedigbo, DB
- Tracy White, LB - depends on whether he's viewed as just a STer or not

5. Other ways to potentially free up cap space

- Sign Wes Welker to a 2-3 year deal with a lower cap hit
- Restructure Chad Ochocinco's contract, or cut him
- Matt Light retires - $8M savings
- Possible roster cuts: Ron Brace, Lousaka Polite

6. I'm not a capologist, but I'm hoping the Pats could increase their cap space from $16.2M to $25-$30M (including $8M if Matt Light retires) and that about $5M is needed for rookie contracts, giving $20-25M for re-signings and external FAs

7. Internal re-signings

- Brian Hoyer - tender at a 2nd round level ($1.9M) and potentially trade
- Mark Anderson
- Dan Connolly
- Kyle Love
- Matt Slater
- Potentially any of the "borderline guys" listed above, depending on external signings and the money

8. External FA signings:

- Mario Williams - the big prize. Still a long shot. Would require something like $35-40M guaranteed money and around $12M/year. Bringing back Andre Carter is a cheaper short-term alternative.
- A 3-4 DE: Adam Carriker, Jamaal Anderson or Kendall Langford
- A WR: Pierre Garcon (probably too much money), Brandon Lloyd (too many issues), Josh Morgan (too many suitors) or Robert Meachem. For now I'll go with Meachem as the most likely option.
- A 3rd TE. Alge Crumpler could be brought back if his shoulder is healed. Dallas Clark is an intriguing short-term option who shouldn't break the bank.

It's so much easier to get your arms around when it's broken down so nicely.

The more I researched Carriker after our discussion yesterday, the more I like him. Great fit.

Brandon Lloyd may have bi-polar, I don't know, but if so it can be controlled pretty well with medication. Brandon Marshall's life did a 180 once he was diagnosed and treated 2 years ago. I'm not quite ready to cast Lloyd aside just yet. The kid has better than avg physical skills and, while caution is def. warranted, I would play it out to its reasonable end with him. I like his skills better than Garcon. I'm concerned about the mileage on Dallas Clark who has had his share of injuries. Maybe Clark a few years ago but I'm skeptical he's the same player today. Even so, he is a smart veteran.

I'll also throw in Geoff Schwartz into the pot because of his ability to play G or OT.

And, of course, Mario Williams at @$14M/.

Edit: I'd like the Pats to kick the tires on C Chris Myers if there's $$ left over. One of the best Cs in the league.

 

[dchester]

After which you may see a 'sea change' in the TE's lowly status in the "Tagging" hierarchy (only punters/kickers get tagged for less).
The world is clearly seeing a new perception of the TE's intrinsic value. that will change to real dollars soon enough.

Cheers, BostonTim

The reality is it's a business. If you prioritize Welker, Hernandez, and Gronk, going forward, unfortunately Wes comes out on the short stick. Now I loves me some Wes Welker, but he's not as valuable as those two down the road, IMO. Now add in Wallace, (who's best years are likely ahead of him), and we could get by without Welker, if they can make the money work.

I will say that he's earned the right to get his big payday someplace, even if it isn't here.

 

[mayoclinic]

It's so much easier to get your arms around when it's broken down so nicely.

The more I researched Carriker after our discussion yesterday, the more I like him. Great fit.

Brandon Lloyd may have bi-polar, I don't know, but if so it can be controlled pretty well with medication. Brandon Marshall's life did a 180 once he was diagnosed and treated 2 years ago. I'm not quite ready to cast Lloyd aside just yet. The kid has better than avg physical skills and, while caution is def. warranted, I would play it out to its reasonable end with him. I like his skills better than Garcon. I'm concerned about the mileage on Dallas Clark who has had his share of injuries. Maybe Clark a few years ago but I'm skeptical he's the same player today. Even so, he is a smart veteran.

I'll also throw in Geoff Schwartz into the pot because of his ability to play G or OT.

And, of course, Mario Williams at @$14M/.

Edit: I'd like the Pats to kick the tires on C Chris Myers if there's $$ left over. One of the best Cs in the league.

So we're currently at about $18M ($17.8) under the cap. If Matt Light retires that makes it about $26M, which can easily be pushed to over $30M if the Welker franchise tag and Ochocinco deals are addressed. Some thoughts:

1. I like Geoff Schwartz as a cost-effective Matt Light replacement, especially as I've targeted his brother Mitchell for the Pats at #63. Both guys can play guard and tackle, and Mitchell shows promise at center. Let Nick McDonald and Ryan Wendell fight it out for the last spot (I'd favor McDonald, myself), but a 9 man OL of Solder, Vollmer, Mankins, Waters, Connolly, Cannon, Schwartz, Schwartz, and McDonald/Wendell would be pretty good. Waters would move on after 2012, but there should be plenty of options to.

2. One guy who I really like as a cost-effective UFA is San Diego RB/FB Mike Tolbert. He's a bowling ball at 5'9" 243#, and is only 26. What I really like about him, in contrast to BJGE, is that he's a great receiver. In 2011 he had 490 yards rushing (4.1 YPC) and 433 yards receiving on 54 receptions. He also was a great red zone weapon, with 8 TDs rushing and 2 receiving. He is also a no-nonsense guy who seems like a Pats-kind of player - he specifically said he wouldn't fit with the Jets because he's a team player and not into the media circus:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...-with-the-jets-i-let-me-play-do-the-talking/

Cut Lousaka Polite and let the Law Firm walk and replace with with Tolbert and the Pats would have 4 RBs who are adept at both rushing and receiving, ranging form the diminutive but lightning-quick Danny Woodhead to the massive Tolbert. Again, one of my major goals is to see more seamless integration of the running and passing attacks.

3. Tolbert and Schwartz should be cost-effective signings. Re-sign Dan Connolly (maybe $3M/year or so) and add a FA WR like Robert Meachem or Josh Morgan (Garcon and Wallace will probably cost too much) and Matt Slater (mainly a STer) and you can probably complete the rebuilding of the offense for about $12M our so in cap hit - the money that you would save on Matt Light's retirement and re-doing the Welker and Ochocinco deals. That would leave $16-18M in cap room to address the defense, depending on whether you keep Brian Hoyer.

4. Assuming about $16-18M cap room to address the defense, my priorities would be (A) sign Mario Williams if possible (cap hit around $10M, I would guess, depending on how the contract was structured), (B) re-sign Mark Anderson, maybe something like $3-4M/year for 3 years, (B) sign a reasonably low cost 3-4 DE like Carriker, Anderson or Langford ($1-3M), and (D) extend Kyle Warren. If Antwaun Molden or James Ihedigbo can be squeezed in at minimum cost that would be ok, but I wouldn't let it affect my other plans. I believe all of that can be accomplshed, though not easily.

That would leave the Pats with the following going into the draft (development or potential PS players in <> ):

QB: Brady, Mallett, +/-Hoyer depending on what they do, <Hartline>
RB: Vereen, Ridley, Woodhead, Tolbert, <Kettani>. I would love that group.
WR: Welker, new UFA, Ochocinco, Underwood, Edelman, Slater, <Kerry Taylor, Britt Davis>
TE: Gronk, Hernandez
OT: Solder, Vollmer, Cannon, GSchwartz, <Kyle Hix>, <Matt Kopa>
OG/C: Mankins, Waters, Connolly, McDonald, Wendell, <Donald Thomas>

DL: Wilfork, UFA DE, Love, Pryor, Deaderick, Brace
DE/OLB: Mario Williams, Anderson, Ninkovich, Cunningham, <Markell Carter>, <Alex Silvestro>
LB: Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher, Tarpinian
DB: McCourty, Chung, Dowling, Arrington, Moore, Barrett, Brown, <Ross Ventrone>, <Malcolm Williams>, +/- Molden or Ihedigbo at a vet minimum

ST: Gostkowski, Mesko, Aiken

That would be a pretty good team going into the draft, leaving the Pats free to find the best values available without having to plug major holes.

 

[mayoclinic]

The reality is it's a business. If you prioritize Welker, Hernandez, and Gronk, going forward, unfortunately Wes comes out on the short stick. Now I loves me some Wes Welker, but he's not as valuable as those two down the road, IMO. Now add in Wallace, (who's best years are likely ahead of him), and we could get by without Welker, if they can make the money work.

I will say that he's earned the right to get his big payday someplace, even if it isn't here.

I think you have it 100% right. It's a business, and teams with sentiment generally pay the price. For all that he's done and all that he can do, Welker just isn't the long term priority or focus that Gronk or Hernandez will be. If getting a (deserved) payday conflicts with the salary structure or long term well being of the team then he should get it elsewhere. I'd rather spend $8-10M on Wallace or Garcon, both of whom are 25, and $3-4M on a slot receiver. I understand that Welker does a lot more than just the slot, but he's limited in what he can do as an outside threat, and you can get 80% of what he brings to the table for less than half of what he will cost. It's a brutal business, but personally if I couldn't sign WW to a reasonable deal and I had the chance to get a young stud WR to build around (or to get Mario Williams), I would pull the tag on him and use the money elsewhere. As I said before, I understand that that's heresy around here.

 

[mayoclinic]

It's so much easier to get your arms around when it's broken down so nicely.

The more I researched Carriker after our discussion yesterday, the more I like him. Great fit.

Brandon Lloyd may have bi-polar, I don't know, but if so it can be controlled pretty well with medication. Brandon Marshall's life did a 180 once he was diagnosed and treated 2 years ago. I'm not quite ready to cast Lloyd aside just yet. The kid has better than avg physical skills and, while caution is def. warranted, I would play it out to its reasonable end with him. I like his skills better than Garcon. I'm concerned about the mileage on Dallas Clark who has had his share of injuries. Maybe Clark a few years ago but I'm skeptical he's the same player today. Even so, he is a smart veteran.

I'll also throw in Geoff Schwartz into the pot because of his ability to play G or OT.

And, of course, Mario Williams at @$14M/.

Edit: I'd like the Pats to kick the tires on C Chris Myers if there's $$ left over. One of the best Cs in the league.

So we're currently at about $18M ($17.8) under the cap. If Matt Light retires that makes it about $26M, which can easily be pushed to over $30M if the Welker franchise tag and Ochocinco deals are addressed. Some thoughts:

1. I like Geoff Schwartz as a cost-effective Matt Light replacement, especially as I've targeted his brother Mitchell for the Pats at #63. Both guys can play guard and tackle, and Mitchell shows promise at center. Let Nick McDonald and Ryan Wendell fight it out for the last spot (I'd favor McDonald, myself), but a 9 man OL of Solder, Vollmer, Mankins, Waters, Connolly, Cannon, Schwartz, Schwartz, and McDonald/Wendell would be pretty good. Waters would move on after 2012, but there should be plenty of options to.

2. One guy who I really like as a cost-effective UFA is San Diego RB/FB Mike Tolbert. He's a bowling ball at 5'9" 243#, and is only 26. What I really like about him, in contrast to BJGE, is that he's a great receiver. In 2011 he had 490 yards rushing (4.1 YPC) and 433 yards receiving on 54 receptions. He also was a great red zone weapon, with 8 TDs rushing and 2 receiving. He is also a no-nonsense guy who seems like a Pats-kind of player - he specifically said he wouldn't fit with the Jets because he's a team player and not into the media circus:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...-with-the-jets-i-let-me-play-do-the-talking/

Cut Lousaka Polite and let the Law Firm walk and replace with with Tolbert and the Pats would have 4 RBs who are adept at both rushing and receiving, ranging form the diminutive but lightning-quick Danny Woodhead to the massive Tolbert. Again, one of my major goals is to see more seamless integration of the running and passing attacks.

3. Tolbert and Schwartz should be cost-effective signings. Re-sign Dan Connolly (maybe $3M/year or so) and add a FA WR like Robert Meachem or Josh Morgan (Garcon and Wallace will probably cost too much) and Matt Slater (mainly a STer) and you can probably complete the rebuilding of the offense for about $12M our so in cap hit - the money that you would save on Matt Light's retirement and re-doing the Welker and Ochocinco deals. That would leave $16-18M in cap room to address the defense, depending on whether you keep Brian Hoyer.

4. Assuming about $16-18M cap room to address the defense, my priorities would be (A) sign Mario Williams if possible (cap hit around $10M, I would guess, depending on how the contract was structured), (B) re-sign Mark Anderson, maybe something like $3-4M/year for 3 years, (B) sign a reasonably low cost 3-4 DE like Carriker, Anderson or Langford ($1-3M), and (D) extend Kyle Warren. If Antwaun Molden or James Ihedigbo can be squeezed in at minimum cost that would be ok, but I wouldn't let it affect my other plans. I believe all of that can be accomplshed, though not easily.

That would leave the Pats with the following going into the draft (development or potential PS players in <> ):

QB: Brady, Mallett, +/-Hoyer depending on what they do, <Hartline>
RB: Vereen, Ridley, Woodhead, Tolbert, <Kettani>. I would love that group.
WR: Welker, new UFA, Ochocinco, Underwood, Edelman, Slater, <Kerry Taylor, Britt Davis>
TE: Gronk, Hernandez
OT: Solder, Vollmer, Cannon, GSchwartz, <Kyle Hix>, <Matt Kopa>
OG/C: Mankins, Waters, Connolly, McDonald, Wendell, <Donald Thomas>

DL: Wilfork, UFA DE, Love, Pryor, Deaderick, Brace
DE/OLB: Mario Williams, Anderson, Ninkovich, Cunningham, <Markell Carter>, <Alex Silvestro>
LB: Mayo, Spikes, Fletcher, Tarpinian
DB: McCourty, Chung, Dowling, Arrington, Moore, Barrett, Brown, <Ross Ventrone>, <Malcolm Williams>, +/- Molden or Ihedigbo at a vet minimum

ST: Gostkowski, Mesko, Aiken

That would be a pretty good team going into the draft, leaving the Pats free to find the best values available without having to plug major holes.

 

[BostonTim]

...Connolly, Cannon, Schwartz, Schwartz, and McDonald... .

Now THERE'S a law-firm. :ROFL:


Cheers, BostonTim