My Offseason Plan

[mayoclinic]

I'm bored. I admit it. Plus, if the labor standoff continues all summer, I probably won't be a fan by the time football resumes. So, with the hope that there may actually be a meaningful 2011 season, here's my idea of what I'd like to see the Pats do between now and the start of the regular season:

I. UDFA Signings:

- Derrick Locke, RB, Kentucky. 5'8" 188#. Danny Woodhead II. Has drawn comparisons to Darren Sproles and . Will be a great STer.
- Richardo Lockette, WR, Fort Falley St. 6'2" 210#. 4.30 speed. Raw, but a lot of upside. Will be a great return man and STer, and could displace Matt Slater, who is in a contract year.
- Jake Kirkpatrick, C, TCU. 6'2" 300#. Very smart center who managed all the line calls while playing on the same OL as Marcus Cannon. PS candidate. Needs to get stronger, but has a lot of deveopmental uside.
- Brandon Bair, DE, Oregon. 6'6" 270#. Long arms and the frame to add another 20-30#. Could be a good developmental 3-4 DE on the PS.
- Will Yeatman, TE/OT, Maryland. 6'6" 270#. Converted lacrosse player with tremendous upside who could be the next Steve Maneri conversion to OT.

II. FA

- Re-sign Logan Mankins, OG. Pay the man. Mankins was All Pro last year in 8 games for around $800K. Give him $8M/year over 5 years - it's really $7M/year with a big bonus for last year. Signing Mankins gives the Pats long term stability at 4/5 OL positions, and the potential to be the best OL in the NFL for years to come.
- Brad Smith, WR/ST, NY Jets. Heck, just signing him from the Jets would be worth it. If the Pats sign Ricardo Lockette as a UDFA then this move becomes obsolete.
- Possibly resign DE Gerard Warren, depending on the health of Mike Wright and Ty Warren and how Marcus Stroud looks
- Re-signing Matt Light is a long shot if the Pats sign Mankins to a long term deal

III. Trades

- Trade FS Brandon Meriweather and DE/OLB Tully Banta-Cain to Houston for DE/OLB Connor Barwin and a 2012 3rd round draft pick. Meriweather is going into a contract year and is too inconsistent for BB's taste, but he is a 2 time Pro Bowl at a position where Houston desperately needs help. Barwin gives the Pats a long-term option to pair with Jermaine Cunningham at OLB.
- Trade BJGE to St. Louis for a 2013 2nd round pick. Steven Jackson is getting old and has a lot of carries under his belt. Platooning him with Law Firm gives the Rams fresh legs and injury insurance. Green-Ellis did a nice job for the Pats in 2010, but he doesn't fit well into the overall offensive scheme.

IV. Cuts

- Nick Kaczur is a likely cut if he doesn't renegotiate his contract. A lot depends on what happens with Logan Mankins and Matt Light, and how the FO views Nate Solder and (to a lesser degree) Steve Maneri.

V. Proposed roster:

Offense (26):

QB(3): Brady, Mallett, Hoyer
RB(4): Vereen, Ridley, Woodhead, Locke
WR(6): Welker, Branch, Tate, Price, Edelman, Lockette/Smith
TE(4): Gronkowski, Hernandez, Crumpler, Smith
OT(4): Solder, Vollmer, LeVoir, Kaczur/Maneri
OG/C(5): Mankins, Connolly, Koppen, Wendell, Ohnrberger (Cannon to PUP)

That's probably 1 player too many, with the last cut TBD.

Defense (26):

DL(9): Wilfork, T. Warren, Stroud, GWarren/Wright, Brace, Pryor, Weston, Deaderick, Love
OLB(4): Barwin, Cunningham, Ninkovich, Moore (Carter to PS)
ILB(4): Mayo, Spikes, Guyton, Fletcher
S(4): Chung, Sanders, Page, Brown/Barrett
CB(5): McCourty, Bodden, Dowling, Arrington, Butler/Wilhite

That's also probably 1 player too many, with probably only 8 DL likely.

ST (3):

K: Gostkowski
P: Mesko
LS: Katula

That's it. No big FA signings, except for Logan Mankins. One fairly big trade, but I don't think it's unreasonable. And a very deep and balanced roster on both sides of the ball.

Signing Mankins and trading for Barwin would give the Pats long term stability on the OL (with only center needing to be addressed for the future) and at the OLB position. FS would become a long term need, but Meriweather is probably only a 50/50 bet right now to be kept beyond 2011. James Sanders and Jarrad Page are both fairly solid. And Ras-I Dowling gives positional flexibility at FS as well as at CB.

This proposal would also leave the Pats with the following draft choices in 2012 and 2013:

2012: NO 1st, NE 1st, Oakland 2nd, NE 2nd, Houston 3rd, NE 3rd, NE 4th, NE 5th (no 6th or 7th currently, though that will probably be addressed)
2013: NE 1st, StL 2nd, NE 2nd, NE 3rd, NE 4th, NE 5th, NE 6th, NE 7th

 

[PatsFanLisa]

I almost couldn't read any further after reading "for Connor Barwin" because my eyes went blurry and my head started spinning. I mourned for days when we didn't get him and Houston stole him from under us.

I love everything you've thought about here except trading BJGE. I think this guy hasn't even hit his stride yet, and what we saw this past year was just skimming the surface of his talent. He's fearless, strong and smart. Just what we need, and we don't know yet what we have with the new picks. I think he stays, and I believe we need him.

Good job, Mayo. I'm bored to tears, also. The thought of nothingness is killing me.

 

[Grumpy_Bottom]

I almost couldn't read any further after reading "for Connor Barwin" because my eyes went blurry and my head started spinning. I mourned for days when we didn't get him and Houston stole him from under us.

I love everything you've thought about here except trading BJGE. I think this guy hasn't even hit his stride yet, and what we saw this past year was just skimming the surface of his talent. He's fearless, strong and smart. Just what we need, and we don't know yet what we have with the new picks. I think he stays, and I believe we need him.

Good job, Mayo. I'm bored to tears, also. The thought of nothingness is killing me.

I'm probably jinxing the hell out of him, but I think Law Firm's biggest unsung plus is that he just flat out never fumbles. That's reliability, that's something BB covets. No chance he goes with Woody and 2 rookies without the stability the Firm brings, imho.

 

[SkiptoMyLou]

Agreed. I think there's more value to BJGE because he holds on to the ball and is consistent. That's a big plus when the last thing you need to worry about is about him turning the ball over.

 

[mayoclinic]

I love everything you've thought about here except trading BJGE. I think this guy hasn't even hit his stride yet, and what we saw this past year was just skimming the surface of his talent. He's fearless, strong and smart. Just what we need, and we don't know yet what we have with the new picks. I think he stays, and I believe we need him.

I'm probably jinxing the hell out of him, but I think Law Firm's biggest unsung plus is that he just flat out never fumbles. That's reliability, that's something BB covets. No chance he goes with Woody and 2 rookies without the stability the Firm brings, imho.

Agreed. I think there's more value to BJGE because he holds on to the ball and is consistent. That's a big plus when the last thing you need to worry about is about him turning the ball over.

I screwed up a bit in my analysis, and I agree and disagree with the above comments.

I've never been a big BJGE fan, but he clearly exceeded expectations last year and provided tough, durable inside running without fumbling. That's not to be sneezed at. I disagree with PFL's assessment that BJGE is "hasn't even hit his stride" - I think he's pretty much reached his ceiling. But again, he was a very solid rushing threat for us in 2010.

There are 2 considerations that I see with BJGE: (1) he's an RFA (assuming the old rules still apply once the lockout ends), and seems to be interested in testing his market value from comments that were made earlier this year; and (2) he doesn't integrate very well into the passing game. Unlike Woodhead and the rookies, LawFirm is pretty much a power inside runner only. Not much of a blocker, and not much of a receiving threat. That limits the offense and makes it predictable.

I think that it is unlikely that the Pats trade BJGE, because BB probably doesn't want to go with Danny Woodhead and 2 rookies - although last year he had no trouble turning the running game over to BJGE and Woodhead, who were totally unproven at the time. But I also think that Stevan Ridley will be an upgrade over BJGE in both the running game and in the overall offense. Ridley is much more comparable to me to someone like Shonn Greene, and I think that he will provide better power running than BJGE while being more of a blocker and a better receiving threat. I'll take that.

I doubt the Pats trade BJGE, but I do think it's not out of the question that someone offers him a contract that the Pats feel exceeds his value. He's tendered at a 2nd round level, so if that happens the Pats will get an extra 2012 2nd round pick, not the 2013 that I had projected in a trade.

The concept of integrating the backs more into the offense and how BJGE doesn't particularly fit that model is discussed in more detail in the "Looking at the Offense" thread.

 

[Patsfaninpa]

I can't even think about football until they sign a new cba. We don't know if there will be a salary cap this year. Free agency rules are certainly on the table. It's impossible to even care at this point. I will say two words that should brighten everyone's feelings on the future. TYLER SEGUIN.......

 

[bmooney54]

I would like to see Benny stay. 1,000 yard rushers are not very common in NE. Though he may not be able to improve his production with the rookies getting some carries, if he can keep contributing in his roll at the same level then he is money in the bank.

 

[Dwight Schrute]

Great start mayo.

A few tweaks are in order though.

Mankins? I still think he's too far disgruntled. Wants out of dodge. He's old school. Man of word. Holds a grudge. I think the thought of spending another 5-6 yrs here rots his gut. I say he ends up getting traded, probably for a 2nd. If he isn't deemed an outright UFA already with the next agreement.

Warren? Absolute re-sign. He sure seemed to develop and buy in to all things Patriot as the season progressed and filled in admirably. Whether he makes the final cut or not depends, but I'd hold on to him and let competition bear that out.

BJGE? No F'n way! I think you have him WAY undersold. 1000 yders who NEVER fumble in a pass first and second then think about run Offense who don't complain about touches and just personify the Patriot way are extremely rare. Sure he isn't as much as a receiving threat. But the other 3 currently locked in with roster spots are. We don't know about the others fumbling propensity, but with a line and TE's that seem to indicate we're headed more towards a power ground game a guy like BJGE is PERFECT to seal games. Almost always positive yardage and never puts the rock on the ground. Until Ridley proves himself BJGE gets at least 1 more year, probably 2-3.

 

[Oswlek]

Benny's contributions to the 2010 team and his growth as a player are admirable, but he is simply a "good" RB. I've been saying for some time now that this offense will make a leap once a legitimate running threat is found and I stand by that assessment.

I don't want him gone, but it will be a happy day in the Oswlek household when Vereen takes the lead.

 

[Dwight Schrute]

I'm not discounting the new guys in any way. I'd just like to see them do it before we trade away a very good commodity for the unproven.

How will everyone feel if the same number of attempts for BJGE is dispersed between Vereen and Ridley but the rock is on the ground 8-9 times?

 

[Oswlek]

I'm not discounting the new guys in any way. I'd just like to see them do it before we trade away a very good commodity for the unproven.

How will everyone feel if the same number of attempts for BJGE is dispersed between Vereen and Ridley but the rock is on the ground 8-9 times?

My comment is one part exuberance about Vereen and two parts the realization that Benny isn't a guy who scare the defense in and of himself.

There was a play against Cleveland when Benny's weaknesses really jumped out at me. There was an opening off RT, but BJGE ran like he was in quicksand and it closed up by the time he got there. He isn't quick enough to threaten the edges and isnt a worry in the passing game. He runs with authority, but I wouldn't say he is an elite power runner.

Consistency and ball control are his strengths, which is perfect when the passing game is working. But, for whatever reason, he can't get untracked when the passing game is struggling.

I read somewhere about how Benny's one-dimensional running style requires that NE use two extra blockers than just the OL and one more than your average starting back. I don't know enough to confirm this, but it does jibe with what my eyes tell me.

That's why I am hopeful that Vereen earns the starting spot sooner rather than later. Key word earns. Benny might have the edge in power (and perhaps a slight edge in blocking only because he's been in the system for 3 years) but Shane is someone that threatens the entire field. I want someone who the team can turn to when the Jets clog the passing lanes instead of being forced to run Danny Woodhead on every down.

Again, I'm not dogging the guy, I've been in his corner for his entire career. I'm just looking at the entire picture and that starting RB spot needs improvement.

 

[Dwight Schrute]

My comment is one part exuberance about Vereen and two parts the realization that Benny isn't a guy who scare the defense in and of himself.

There was a play against Cleveland when Benny's weaknesses really jumped out at me. There was an opening off RT, but BJGE ran like he was in quicksand and it closed up by the time he got there. He isn't quick enough to threaten the edges and isnt a worry in the passing game. He runs with authority, but I wouldn't say he is an elite power runner.

Consistency and ball control are his strengths, which is perfect when the passing game is working. But, for whatever reason, he can't get untracked when the passing game is struggling.

I read somewhere about how Benny's one-dimensional running style requires that NE use two extra blockers than just the OL and one more than your average starting back. I don't know enough to confirm this, but it does jibe with what my eyes tell me.

That's why I am hopeful that Vereen earns the starting spot sooner rather than later. Key word earns. Benny might have the edge in power (and perhaps a slight edge in blocking only because he's been in the system for 3 years) but Shane is someone that threatens the entire field. I want someone who the team can turn to when the Jets clog the passing lanes instead of being forced to run Danny Woodhead on every down.

Again, I'm not dogging the guy, I've been in his corner for his entire career. I'm just looking at the entire picture and that starting RB spot needs improvement.

Your whole expose fails to mention Ridley once. I guess you're real big on Vereen.ROFL

Personally, I'm hoping some of the reports I've read post-draft in comparison to Ridley being Dillon-esque bear true. He's the one I've got my eye trained on.

 

[mayoclinic]

Great start mayo.

A few tweaks are in order though.

Mankins? I still think he's too far disgruntled. Wants out of dodge. He's old school. Man of word. Holds a grudge. I think the thought of spending another 5-6 yrs here rots his gut. I say he ends up getting traded, probably for a 2nd. If he isn't deemed an outright UFA already with the next agreement.

The time has come to either sign Mankins long term or get rid of him. IMHO, if he gets paid he'll be happy. He's an All Pro guard and he's only 29. Sign him long term and 4/5 of the OL is set once Cannon and Solder develop, which leaves only OC to address in the 2012 draft. If he can't be re-signed, then we should try for a tag and trade to get more than a 2012 3rd round comp pick in return. I agree that having an angry, disgruntled Mankins around is not a good thing.

Warren? Absolute re-sign. He sure seemed to develop and buy in to all things Patriot as the season progressed and filled in admirably. Whether he makes the final cut or not depends, but I'd hold on to him and let competition bear that out.

BJGE? No F'n way! I think you have him WAY undersold. 1000 yders who NEVER fumble in a pass first and second then think about run Offense who don't complain about touches and just personify the Patriot way are extremely rare. Sure he isn't as much as a receiving threat. But the other 3 currently locked in with roster spots are. We don't know about the others fumbling propensity, but with a line and TE's that seem to indicate we're headed more towards a power ground game a guy like BJGE is PERFECT to seal games. Almost always positive yardage and never puts the rock on the ground. Until Ridley proves himself BJGE gets at least 1 more year, probably 2-3.

Again: (1) BJGE is a RFA, and if someone wants to overspend on an offer sheet for him I think he is gone, regardless of whether the Pats would choose to trade him; (2) I think Ridley will be an upgrade. I'm sure BB would prefer to keep BJGE for continuity, at least on a 1 year deal, but I also doubt that BB will overspend to keep him if some other team makes a run.

 

[mayoclinic]

Your whole expose fails to mention Ridley once. I guess you're real big on Vereen.ROFL

Personally, I'm hoping some of the reports I've read post-draft in comparison to Ridley being Dillon-esque bear true. He's the one I've got my eye trained on.

I think a good comparison for Ridley is Shonn Greene. Ridley himself was interviewed pre-draft and said that he thought his game compared best to Greene's. Both are 5'11" 225-230#. Both had only 1 year of tape to evaluate them coming off a big year. Greene went #65 in 2009, Ridley #73 in 2011.

 

[Dwight Schrute]

The time has come to either sign Mankins long term or get rid of him. IMHO, if he gets paid he'll be happy. He's an All Pro guard and he's only 29. Sign him long term and 4/5 of the OL is set once Cannon and Solder develop, which leaves only OC to address in the 2012 draft. If he can't be re-signed, then we should try for a tag and trade to get more than a 2012 3rd round comp pick in return. I agree that having an angry, disgruntled Mankins around is not a good thing.



Again: (1) BJGE is a RFA, and if someone wants to overspend on an offer sheet for him I think he is gone, regardless of whether the Pats would choose to trade him; (2) I think Ridley will be an upgrade. I'm sure BB would prefer to keep BJGE for continuity, at least on a 1 year deal, but I also doubt that BB will overspend to keep him if some other team makes a run.

I just have a hunch BB puts FAR more emphasis on ball security vs. the nit-picking we're doing over BJGE's game.

 

[mayoclinic]

I just have a hunch BB puts FAR more emphasis on ball security vs. the nit-picking we're doing over BJGE's game.

I'm sure ball security is very important to BB. But if he say BJGE as the long-term #1 RB I doubt he would have used 2nd and 3rd round picks on the position.

 

[Dwight Schrute]

I'm sure ball security is very important to BB. But if he say BJGE as the long-term #1 RB I doubt he would have used 2nd and 3rd round picks on the position.

I think he just really got tired of the lower end of the Offensive roster looking like a nursing home in hopes of catching a glimpse of what was clearly in the past.

I still expect BJGE to remain and be the primary rusher this coming season.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think he just really got tired of the lower end of the Offensive roster looking like a nursing home in hopes of catching a glimpse of what was clearly in the past.

I still expect BJGE to remain and be the primary rusher this coming season.

If BJGE is on the roster then I'm sure he'll start the season as the "primary rusher". But I also suspect that by midseason he won't have that role any more.

 

[Oswlek]

I just have a hunch BB puts FAR more emphasis on ball security vs. the nit-picking we're doing over BJGE's game.

Nit picking is finding flaws in Brady's game. Benny is really the offense equivalent of someone like Sanders on defense. Solid, dependable, doesn't make many mistakes. Your comfortable starting him if you don't have other options, but you still look at it as a place that could use an upgrade.

I think he just really got tired of the lower end of the Offensive roster looking like a nursing home in hopes of catching a glimpse of what was clearly in the past.

I still expect BJGE to remain and be the primary rusher this coming season.

You don't spend a 2nd and a 3rd simply because you want a youth movement in the backups. I feel very confident that BB views Benny the same way I do.

 

[Oswlek]

Your whole expose fails to mention Ridley once. I guess you're real big on Vereen.ROFL

Personally, I'm hoping some of the reports I've read post-draft in comparison to Ridley being Dillon-esque bear true. He's the one I've got my eye trained on.

That I am, my friend. Haven't been this excited about a new addition since Welker.