Flagg the Wanderer
Mourning Algernon
What do we know about this Patriots team? They handle adversity well. Let's take this one step at a time, okay?
1) This team, even without Ty Law, is better than the 2001 team.
Comparison:
Offense:
QB: 2001 Brady v. 2004 Brady.
RB: Smith v. Dillon
WR1: Brown v. Branch (push)
WR2: Patten v. Givens (push - slight edge to Givens)
WR3: Charles Johnson v. Patten
WR4: Fred Coleman v. Brown
TE: Wiggins v. Graham
TE2: Rutledge c. Fauria
OT: 2001 Light v. 2004 Light
OT: GRR v. Gorin (push)
OG: 2001 Andruzzi v. 2004 Andruzzi
OG: Compton v. Neal (and it's close)
OC: Woody v. Koppen (push - Koppen on brains and guts, Woody on physical dominance)
Defense:
DL:
Hamilton, Mitchell, 2001 Seymour, Pleasant (Parker, McGinest)
v.
Warren, Wilfork, 2004 Seymour (Green, Traylor, Hill, McGinest) (actually prettly close on the starters with Seymour dinged up, but the ability to play a rotation wins this running away).
LB:
2001 Vrabel, 2001 Bruschi, 2001 Phifer (McGinest, Chatham, Izzo, Cox, Johnson)
v.
2004 Vrabel, 2004 Bruschi, 2004 Johnson, 2004 McGinest (Colvin, Phifer, Izzo, Chatham, Banta-Cain, Davis)(2001 Phifer is a big loss, but Bruschi, Johnson, McGoo have all improved, Colvin and Chatham are better)
DB:
2001 Law, Smith, Milloy, Jones (Shaw, Buckley, Harris, Cherry, Stevens)
v.
Gay, Samuel, Harrison, Wilson (Moreland, Reid, Davis, Cherry, Brown)
...but it's close, because while 2001 Law is a huge loss, Harrison/Wilson are a monumental upgrade from Milloy/Jones. But the depth wins it for 2001, as Shaw and Buckley were a solid CB 3/4.
(sidenote not relevant to this game: this group WITH Law/Poole is freaking outstanding).
Overall the team is definately better - particularly on offense.
We can see this particularly in rankings (2004 vs. 2001):
Offense yardage: 7 vs. 19
Offense scoring: 4 vs. 6
Defense yardage: 9 vs. 24
Defense scoring: 2 vs. 6
Now, the 2004 Colts are scary. But they're no where near the team the 2001 Rams were:
Offensive scoring:
Colts: #1 (522 points)
Rams: #1 (503 points)
Offensive yardage:
Colts: #2 (6584 yards)
Rams: #1 (6930 yards)
Defensive scoring:
Colts: #19 (351 points allowed)
Rams: #7 (273 points allowed)
Defensive yardage:
Colts: #29 (5929 yards allowed)
Rams: #3 (4733 yards allowed)
Indy has faced top 10 defenses only 4 times, with their best output in those 4 games 24 points. Well, 5 times if you count the Denver game, but they were tanking that game, and even though it would help my numbers I'm not going to count that one.
Week 1: @ New England (#2 Scoring Defense) 24 points
Week 2: @ TEN (#30) 31 points
Week 3: v. GB (#23) 45 points
Week 4: @ JAX (#7) 24 points
Week 5: v. OAK (#31) 35 points
Week 7: v. JAX (#7) 24 points
Week 8: @ KC (#29) 35 points
Week 9: v. MIN (#26) 31 points
Week 10: v. HOU (#15) 45 points
Week 11: @ CHI (#13) 41 points
Week 12: @ DET (#18) 41 points
Week 13: TEN (#30) 51 points
Week 14: @ HOU (#15) 23 points
Week 15: BAL (#6) 20 points
Week 16: SD (#11) 34 points
Week 17: Tank job to DEN (#10) 14 points if any cares.
Is NE the same defense from week 1? No. Our DBs are depleted, but the DL is better with Wilfork and Warren emerging. But our defense held the #2 scoring offense to 19 points, without Law or Poole.
Anyway, in 4 games against top defenses, the Colts averaged 22.75 ppg.
On the flip side, the Patriots offense was good enough to score around 24 on pretty much anybody - only the #4 ranked Jets D held the Pats below 20. The Patriots #4 scoring offense faced the #4 Jets twice, the #8 Bills twice, the #1 Steelers, and the #6 Ravens. Against those 6 teams, they averaged a little OVER 23 points. The Colts have the #19 defense in the NFL.
Now, the Patriots have faced top 10 offenses 5 times this season, and allowed an average of 18.8 points per game. 3 of those games came without Law and Poole, and in those games they allowed an average of 17.6 points per game. The Colts have the #1 offense in the NFL.
The Colts have faced top 10 offenses 5 times this season (6 if you count the Broncos tank-job, which I won't), and allowed an average of 32.5 points per game. The Patriots have the #4 offense in the NFL.
BB found a way for the 2001 Patriots to best the 2001 Rams, on a neutral field, in dome. I think he can find a way for the 2004 Patriots to beat the 2004 Colts, at home, on slow and knotty grass in the cold.
Have a little faith, kids!
1) This team, even without Ty Law, is better than the 2001 team.
Comparison:
Offense:
QB: 2001 Brady v. 2004 Brady.
RB: Smith v. Dillon
WR1: Brown v. Branch (push)
WR2: Patten v. Givens (push - slight edge to Givens)
WR3: Charles Johnson v. Patten
WR4: Fred Coleman v. Brown
TE: Wiggins v. Graham
TE2: Rutledge c. Fauria
OT: 2001 Light v. 2004 Light
OT: GRR v. Gorin (push)
OG: 2001 Andruzzi v. 2004 Andruzzi
OG: Compton v. Neal (and it's close)
OC: Woody v. Koppen (push - Koppen on brains and guts, Woody on physical dominance)
Defense:
DL:
Hamilton, Mitchell, 2001 Seymour, Pleasant (Parker, McGinest)
v.
Warren, Wilfork, 2004 Seymour (Green, Traylor, Hill, McGinest) (actually prettly close on the starters with Seymour dinged up, but the ability to play a rotation wins this running away).
LB:
2001 Vrabel, 2001 Bruschi, 2001 Phifer (McGinest, Chatham, Izzo, Cox, Johnson)
v.
2004 Vrabel, 2004 Bruschi, 2004 Johnson, 2004 McGinest (Colvin, Phifer, Izzo, Chatham, Banta-Cain, Davis)(2001 Phifer is a big loss, but Bruschi, Johnson, McGoo have all improved, Colvin and Chatham are better)
DB:
2001 Law, Smith, Milloy, Jones (Shaw, Buckley, Harris, Cherry, Stevens)
v.
Gay, Samuel, Harrison, Wilson (Moreland, Reid, Davis, Cherry, Brown)
...but it's close, because while 2001 Law is a huge loss, Harrison/Wilson are a monumental upgrade from Milloy/Jones. But the depth wins it for 2001, as Shaw and Buckley were a solid CB 3/4.
(sidenote not relevant to this game: this group WITH Law/Poole is freaking outstanding).
Overall the team is definately better - particularly on offense.
We can see this particularly in rankings (2004 vs. 2001):
Offense yardage: 7 vs. 19
Offense scoring: 4 vs. 6
Defense yardage: 9 vs. 24
Defense scoring: 2 vs. 6
Now, the 2004 Colts are scary. But they're no where near the team the 2001 Rams were:
Offensive scoring:
Colts: #1 (522 points)
Rams: #1 (503 points)
Offensive yardage:
Colts: #2 (6584 yards)
Rams: #1 (6930 yards)
Defensive scoring:
Colts: #19 (351 points allowed)
Rams: #7 (273 points allowed)
Defensive yardage:
Colts: #29 (5929 yards allowed)
Rams: #3 (4733 yards allowed)
Indy has faced top 10 defenses only 4 times, with their best output in those 4 games 24 points. Well, 5 times if you count the Denver game, but they were tanking that game, and even though it would help my numbers I'm not going to count that one.
Week 1: @ New England (#2 Scoring Defense) 24 points
Week 2: @ TEN (#30) 31 points
Week 3: v. GB (#23) 45 points
Week 4: @ JAX (#7) 24 points
Week 5: v. OAK (#31) 35 points
Week 7: v. JAX (#7) 24 points
Week 8: @ KC (#29) 35 points
Week 9: v. MIN (#26) 31 points
Week 10: v. HOU (#15) 45 points
Week 11: @ CHI (#13) 41 points
Week 12: @ DET (#18) 41 points
Week 13: TEN (#30) 51 points
Week 14: @ HOU (#15) 23 points
Week 15: BAL (#6) 20 points
Week 16: SD (#11) 34 points
Week 17: Tank job to DEN (#10) 14 points if any cares.
Is NE the same defense from week 1? No. Our DBs are depleted, but the DL is better with Wilfork and Warren emerging. But our defense held the #2 scoring offense to 19 points, without Law or Poole.
Anyway, in 4 games against top defenses, the Colts averaged 22.75 ppg.
On the flip side, the Patriots offense was good enough to score around 24 on pretty much anybody - only the #4 ranked Jets D held the Pats below 20. The Patriots #4 scoring offense faced the #4 Jets twice, the #8 Bills twice, the #1 Steelers, and the #6 Ravens. Against those 6 teams, they averaged a little OVER 23 points. The Colts have the #19 defense in the NFL.
Now, the Patriots have faced top 10 offenses 5 times this season, and allowed an average of 18.8 points per game. 3 of those games came without Law and Poole, and in those games they allowed an average of 17.6 points per game. The Colts have the #1 offense in the NFL.
The Colts have faced top 10 offenses 5 times this season (6 if you count the Broncos tank-job, which I won't), and allowed an average of 32.5 points per game. The Patriots have the #4 offense in the NFL.
BB found a way for the 2001 Patriots to best the 2001 Rams, on a neutral field, in dome. I think he can find a way for the 2004 Patriots to beat the 2004 Colts, at home, on slow and knotty grass in the cold.
Have a little faith, kids!