Rebuilding vs. Reloading

[mayoclinic]

An interesting read from Greg Knopping at Pats' Pulpit:

The 2011 draft class is not the 2010 draft class. These rookies will not have the pressure to step into starting roles immediately. If they do not develop as quickly as expected, the Patriots will fare just fine. They have the depth and more importantly quality depth to succeed without these guys. But this is a good thing! While the 2010 class was certainly more exciting because of the fact that the rookies were expected to play such prominent roles, anything extra the 2011 rookie class provides will be as an upgrade to the current personnel (provided injuries do not force them into major roles).

http://www.patspulpit.com/2011/5/2/...iots-wont-rely-on-rookies-thats-a-good-thing

This got me to thinking about rebuilding vs. reloading.

Remember the good old days of the SB years when the Pats would draft rookies who would largely go unnoticed, slowly working their way onto the roster and getting some playing time towards the end of the season, before emerging in their 2nd year as bona fide impact players? Then something changed around 2008: the Pats waited too long to reload the defense, the defense got too old and slow, and the team was forced to "rebuild" in a hurry. Jerod Mayo, Devin McCourty, Brandon Spikes, Jermaine Cunningham, Myron Pryor, Patrick Chung - these guys all got much more playing time more quickly than Pats rookies did in the past, and were in many cases thrust into critical starting roles and forced to sink or swim. Sebastian Vollmer, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez had a similar education on the fly on offense.

For the most part the youngsters did well, but this is not the Patriots' way. BB hates to live or die by the sword of young, inexperienced players. The inexpderience clearly showed on defense in 2010.

If the 2011 draft is any indication, the team has finished "rebuilding", and is now in "reloading" mode - loading up on talent for down the road, without having to rely on it for immediate success in 2011. Hopefully the young RBs will provide fresh legs and contribute, but for the most part don't expect to see any Pats rookies contending for ROY or Pro Bowl honors this year, or making the media "top rookies" lists. Maybe an injury or two will force someone into the limelight, but I'm sure BB's preference is to let the young team develop slowly and get continuity and experience before adding more youngsters at key positions.

As Knopping says, it's probably a good thing. It probably means that BB believes he has a team ready to contend for the next 3-5 years.

 

[BostonTim]

It probably means that BB believes he has a team ready to contend for the next 3-5 years.

How can that be possible w/o a passrushing OLB?

Cheers, BostonMidge

 

[patsfanroach]

I love this mentality. Does anyone remember Troy Brown as a rookie? Tedy Bruschi? Tom Brady? They were slowly put into their starting roles. Believe me I would LOVE to have seen an outstanding OLB or DE that could get to the passer, but BB did not see the man he wanted...I look forward to the day when this draft class steps in and plays roles in the next SB run...after the one that starts this season. Que em up!

 

[Oswlek]

I think Greg is jumping the gun a year early.

Looking at the roster composition, my opinion is that NE is going to expect at least 2 of the top 4 choices to be immediate impact players, specifically Solder and Vereen.

I also think Dowling is going to see some trial-by-fire as well. His selection tells me that BB wasn't thrilled with the non-McCourty members of the secondary and they felt an upgrade was essential. Anecdotally, I look at Indy abusing Chung with Blair White (his knee surely caused him problems, but I've never seen him as a nickle back. Hopefully he doesn't do much of that this year) and the fact that NE's other starter outside might not even be a #3 CB on 3 of the championship game participants.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think Greg is jumping the gun a year early.

Looking at the roster composition, my opinion is that NE is going to expect at least 2 of the top 4 choices to be immediate impact players, specifically Solder and Vereen.

I also think Dowling is going to see some trial-by-fire as well. His selection tells me that BB wasn't thrilled with the non-McCourty members of the secondary and they felt an upgrade was essential. Anecdotally, I look at Indy abusing Chung with Blair White (his knee surely caused him problems, but I've never seen him as a nickle back. Hopefully he doesn't do much of that this year) and the fact that NE's other starter outside might not even be a #3 CB on 3 of the championship game participants.

I'm not so sure. I think that BB will get significant contributions from a number of players, but I don't think that he will be dependent on getting huge contributions from them.

Both RBs should contribute. It's more the norm than the exception in the NFL that RBs contribute early on, while they are fresh and not banged up, compared with other positions. Just having fresh legs and complementary skills to BJGE and Woody should be an asset.

Lee Smith will contribute. He'll be another mauler at TE to use in the short yardage game and on STs. He won't be a star, but he'll be a fan favorite fast.

Ras-I Dowling will contribute, if he's not injured - which is always an issue with him. Having 3 big CBs to put out in nickel packages will allow the Pats to throw some new coverages at teams. He could also see time at FS.

That's 4 out of the first 7. As for the rest:

- I don't believe Marcus Cannon will contribute much in 2011. If he does, it's a huge bonus. I think he'll start the year on PUP, and could go on IR. But I think he'll be the starting RG by 2011, and will be dominant along with Vollmer.

- I don't believe Ryan Mallett will contribute much in 2011. I sure hope he doesn't - that would be very, very bad. I think he'll be given every opportunity to develop and could see more field time than Brian Hoyer did last year, but if we're counting on him in clutch situations it's not a good thing.

That leaves Nate Solder. The big question is how much it will take in S&C and technical refinement to get him ready at LT. I'm sure that the sooner the better, and that the team will ease him in as quickly as Scar and BB deem prudent. But I can't see him having the kind of impact that Vollmer did in 2009 or Mankins in 2005. If he does, I'll be elated. But I wouldn't depend on it.

 

[Dwight Schrute]

That leaves Nate Solder. The big question is how much it will take in S&C and technical refinement to get him ready at LT. I'm sure that the sooner the better, and that the team will ease him in as quickly as Scar and BB deem prudent. But I can't see him having the kind of impact that Vollmer did in 2009 or Mankins in 2005. If he does, I'll be elated. But I wouldn't depend on it.

I disagree.

Wasn't Light a starter right away? As a 2nd rounder?

If they deem Solder had a top 17 grade I'd have to believe they intend to insert him from day one.

Granted, he'll have significant help with Crump or Smith. But I sure hope he takes the reigns and runs with it from the jump.

 

[mayoclinic]

Wes Bunting's all rookie team prediction:

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/2011-NFP-AllRookie-team-projections.html

No Pats picks on the list. We're reloading, not rebuilding. Though I have a sneaking suspicion the list at the end of the season will have Shane Vereen or Stevan Ridley on it. Ras-I Dowling could surprise, too.

 

[mayoclinic]

From Jeff Howe:

http://www.nesn.com/2011/05/bill-be...11-draft-philosophy-with-future-in-mind.html

Reloading, baby. And Howe leaves off Vereen, who I think will be a stud.

 

[O_P_T]

That leaves Nate Solder. The big question is how much it will take in S&C and technical refinement to get him ready at LT. I'm sure that the sooner the better, and that the team will ease him in as quickly as Scar and BB deem prudent. But I can't see him having the kind of impact that Vollmer did in 2009 or Mankins in 2005. If he does, I'll be elated. But I wouldn't depend on it.

I think as much, if not more, depends on who's back from last year's team.

If they don't resign Light, who else do they put at Tackle?

Yes, they can move Seabass over, but then who plays right tackle and would they be better than Solder?

Does Mankins accept his franchise tag? Is the use of the tag on him even going to be recognized under the new CBA?

Who replaces Neal?

So in the worse case scenario, you only have Seabass and Koppen as returning starters on the OL.

In those circumstances, is Solder one of the top five of what you've got left?

This is why I had zero issues with taking Solder at 17. Right now you can only be certain of 2 of the 5 starting OL returning.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think as much, if not more, depends on who's back from last year's team.

If they don't resign Light, who else do they put at Tackle?

Yes, they can move Seabass over, but then who plays right tackle and would they be better than Solder?

Does Mankins accept his franchise tag? Is the use of the tag on him even going to be recognized under the new CBA?

Who replaces Neal?

So in the worse case scenario, you only have Seabass and Koppen as returning starters on the OL.

In those circumstances, is Solder one of the top five of what you've got left?

This is why I had zero issues with taking Solder at 17. Right now you can only be certain of 2 of the 5 starting OL returning.

Nick Kaczur is under contract through 2012 and is being paid starting RT money. Assuming he's recovered from his back surgery, worst case scenario is Kaczur starts at RT and Vollmer moves to LT until Solder is ready. I don't particularly like that scenario, but it's certainly an option.

 

[The Gr8est]

From Jeff Howe:

http://www.nesn.com/2011/05/bill-be...11-draft-philosophy-with-future-in-mind.html

Reloading, baby. And Howe leaves off Vereen, who I think will be a stud.

I have had a pet peeve for a while about fans who spout their opinion on draft prospects as fact.

One of the fans posted his/her comments in the link above and criticized the Pats passing on the best RB and taking Vereen and Ridley.

Maybe the Pats passed on the only RB you had heard of from your couch, but that doesn't mean he was the best.

I really wish fans would stop using statements of fact like "passed on the top RB" as if their knowledge of the players is anywhere near that of the pros who do it for a living.

The Pats did NOT pass on the best RB just because you say so. It was widely reported that Ivan Fears said that the Pats had two other RBs ranked higher than Ingram, and they didn't like Leshoure either.

Just because Ingram is a past Heisman trophy winner and you have actually read the pap from the MSM who cover the draft doesn't make it a fact.

The pros know more than you do. You might want to couch your comments as the opinion that it is, ie "I think they passed up the best RB and I disagree with it", rather than dogmatically present your opinion as fact.

Especially when you have no track record in this area.

</soapbox>

 

[mayoclinic]

I have had a pet peeve for a while about fans who spout their opinion on draft prospects as fact. One of the fans posted his/her comments in the link above and criticized the Pats passing on the best RB and taking Vereen and Ridley.

Maybe the Pats passed on the only RB you had heard of from your couch, but that doesn't mean he was the best. I really wish fans would stop using statements of fact like "passed on the top RB" as if their knowledge of the players is anywhere near that of the pros who do it for a living.

The Pats did NOT pass on the best RB just because you say so. It was widely reported that Ivan Fears said that the Pats had two other RBs ranked higher than Ingram, and they didn't like Leshoure either. Just because Ingram is a past Heisman trophy winner and you have actually read the pap from the MSM who cover the draft doesn't make it a fact.

The pros know more than you do. You might want to couch your comments as the opinion that it is, ie "I think they passed up the best RB and I disagree with it", rather than dogmatically present your opinion as fact. Especially when you have no track record in this area.

The Pats are not infallible, but they've proven again and again that they are amongst the best talent evaluators in the game, and among the very best at identifying players who are good fitsi n their system. Time and time again they have "reached" for a player who has turned out to be much better than expected:

- Reaching for guard Logan Mankins with the 32nd pick in 2005. Many draftniks considered Mankins a late 2nd/3rd rounder. There were later rumors that SF would have snapped him up at 33 if the Pats hadn't taken him.

- Reaching for Sebastian Vollmer with the 58th pick in 2009. The Pats passed up Michael Oher at 23, a tackle whom many thought was a top 10 talent, and also William Beatty, considered a late 1st/early 2nd guy. Volllmer was considered a 4th-5th round pick and hadn't even gotten a Combine invite. In retrospect, he was a 1st round talent who flew under the radar, and also a much better schematic fit for the Pats than Oher or Beatty.

- Reaching for Jermaine Cunningham with the 53rd pick in 2010. Cunningham was generally considered a 3rd-4th round prospect, and the Pats passed up bigger names at OLB, such as Jerry Hughes and Sergio Kindle. He was a steady starter as a rookie, and looks to be a fixture for some time.

So far all of those moves have turned out ok. I have a suspicion that the Pats knew what they were doing this time around, too.

 

[Newbologist]

Don't forget McCourty who was considered a "special-teamer"

 

[spacecrime]

I disagree.

Wasn't Light a starter right away? As a 2nd rounder?

I don't think so. I know Seymour didn't start until the second half of the season, and I don't think Light did either. I'm pretty sure Grant Williams played most of the Rams SB, not Light.

 

[dchester]

I love this mentality. Does anyone remember Troy Brown as a rookie? Tedy Bruschi? Tom Brady? They were slowly put into their starting roles. Believe me I would LOVE to have seen an outstanding OLB or DE that could get to the passer, but BB did not see the man he wanted...I look forward to the day when this draft class steps in and plays roles in the next SB run...after the one that starts this season. Que em up!

I think Troy Brown was like an 8th round pick, and of course Brady was a 6th round pick. I don't think they compare with 1st & 2nd round picks. Bruschi is different, as he was either a 2nd or 3rd (I'm too lazy to look it up).

If Solder isn't starting by the end of the season, (barring injury), it was likely a bad pick.

 

[Oswlek]

I think Troy Brown was like an 8th round pick, and of course Brady was a 6th round pick. I don't think they compare with 1st & 2nd round picks. Bruschi is different, as he was either a 2nd or 3rd (I'm too lazy to look it up).

If Solder isn't starting by the end of the season, (barring injury), it was likely a bad pick.

Wilfork and Warren weren't starters in the playoffs. They both started an occassional game during the season, but had settled into rotational duty.

If NE brings Light back, I could definitely see Solder sitting more than people expect. If Solder is beaten out despite not bringing Light back then I might get concerned.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think Troy Brown was like an 8th round pick, and of course Brady was a 6th round pick. I don't think they compare with 1st & 2nd round picks. Bruschi is different, as he was either a 2nd or 3rd (I'm too lazy to look it up).

If Solder isn't starting by the end of the season, (barring injury), it was likely a bad pick.

I would't go quite so far, though I think Solder will be starting sooner rather than later. But overall, I think the Pats will be much less dependent on rookies having to step in and take on starting roles than they have been over the past 3 years, and that is probably a good thing.

 

[mayoclinic]

Wilfork and Warren weren't starters in the playoffs. They both started an occassional game during the season, but had settled into rotational duty.

If NE brings Light back, I could definitely see Solder sitting more than people expect. If Solder is beaten out despite not bringing Light back then I might get concerned.

Historically under BB, the Pats have tended to bring rookie OLs along more quickly than other positions:

- Matt Light played in 14 games and started 12 as a rookie in 2001
- Dan Koppen played in 16 games and started 15 as a 5th round rookie in 2003
- Logan Mankins played in and started all 16 games in 2005
- Nick Kaczur played in 14 games and started 11 in 2005
- Sebastian Vollmer played in 14 games and started 8 in 2009

So as far as Nate Solder goes I agree to a certain extent with both you and dchester. Based on past experience, Solder - the highest drafted OL in BB's 11 years with the Pats - should be capable of getting significant playing time fairly soon, and potentially starting. Whether he actually does will depend to a large extent, as you say, on who else is around and healthy. I can't see him starting over a healthy Matt Light right away.

For DL, the playing time curve has traditionally been somewhat steeper until recently. Ty Warren started only 4 games as a rookie, Vince Wilfork 6, and even Richard Seymour only 10.

 

[mayoclinic]

Thinking about the "reloading" of the Patriots as a perennial SB contender for the next 5+ years, let's look at where things stand by position:

QB: Brady is under contract through 2014 and says he wants to play another 6-10 years. Mallett and Hoyer give the Pats the best depth they've had at the QB position since Brady and Bledsoe were teammates. Mallett is an unproven rookie but a top 10 talent and gives the Pats a glimmer of a possible post-Brady franchise QB. Loaded.

RB: BenJarvus Green-Ellis is limited but is coming off a 1000 yard season. He's been tendered as an RFA but has yet to sign his tender. Danny Woodhead emerged as a multi-purpose weapon in 2010, and is under contract through 2012. Rookies Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley are unproven, but provide the Pats with fresh legs, depth, versatility, and complementary skills to BJGE and Woodhead. Relatively loaded = the deepest the position has been since at least 2008.

WR: Wes Welker made a tremendous comeback from his ACL injury in 2010. He is in a contract year. Randy Moss was jettisoned for Deion Branch, who is in the downside of his career but is a solid clutch receiver. Julian Edelman is a nice backup to Welker, though he didn't make the big year 2 leap that some had predicted for him. Matt Slater is a STer only. Brandon Tate and Taylor Price are works in progress, but with a lot of upside but still unproven. Tate showed some flashes in 2010 but has yet to prove that he is a #1 or #2 WR. Price had mostly a red shirt year. Both have the ability to be the vertical threat that the team needs, but have yet to prove that they can take on that role. Still reloading - this position is a relative work in progress.

TE: The offense was largely rebuilt around rookies Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in 2010. They should form the nucleus of the best TE group in the NFL. Alge Crumpler was a tremendous blocker and leader in 2010. Rookie Lee Smith should also be a beast as a blocking TE and occasional receiver. Loaded.

OT: Nate Solder and Sebastian Vollmer give the Pats the biggest, and potential best bookend tackles in the NFL. Solder needs to develop, but given Scar's track record and how highly the Pats valued him I think it's extremely likely that he will turn out to be very, very good, and perhaps something special. Matt Light and Nick Kaczur are in limbo at the moment. Mark Levoir is a solid backup. Steve Maneri is a work in progress, but with a lot of upside. Relatively loaded - not entirely finished yet, but the long term picture looks very promising.

OG/C: Logan Mankins is a UFA and has been franchised, but is not likely to sign his tender as things currently stand. Dan Connolly is a solid rotational guy and is capable of starting at all 3 interior line positions. Dan Koppen is a fine technician but is on the downside of his career, and is increasingly a liability against powerful NTs. Rookie Marcus Cannon looks like the future at RG, but is undergoing chemotherapy and could be on PUP/IR for 2012. Nick Kaczur could move to guard, but his contract status is in doubt, and it is not clear whether the team will bring back Quin Ojinnaka. Ryan Wendell and Rich Ohrnberger showed some decent flashes in 2010, but have yet to prove that they are reliable long term options. Still reloading - along with WR this is the least stable position on offense for the long term.

DL: Vince Wilfork is the anchor and is under contract through 2014. Ty Warren is attempting a comeback after hip surgery and turns 30. Marcus Stroud is a short term stop gap. Mike Wright is coming off of a concussion/neck injury and is a question mark. The rest of the position consists of talented but not yet fully proven youngsters - Ron Brace, Myron Pryor, Brandon Deaderick, Kyle Love, Kade Weston and Darryl Richard. Reloading - lots of depth, but the long term starters at DE are not yet obvious.

OLB: Jermaine Cunningham had a promising rookie season, and should improve. Rob Ninkovich had a fine effort in his first year as a starter, and should be reliable, though it's not clear whether he is a long term starter or a rotational guy. Eric Moore showed a lot in the last 4 games of 2010, but is unproven as an OLB conversion. Tully Banta-Cain regressed in 2010 after a stellar 2009 but was dealing with injuries. His contract may exceed his worth. Tracy White was a stellar STer in 2010, but is a FA at the moment. Rookie Markell Carter has some nice upside and ST capability, but is unproven. Still reloading.

ILB: Jerod Mayo made the Pro Bowl in 2010 and led the league in tackles. He also showed signs of becoming a playmaker. A team captain, he is one of the cornerstones on defense. Brandon Spikes provided the SILB thumper that the Pats lacked for some time. He was a bit erratic in 2010 and his 4 game suspension was a downer, but he should improve. Gary Guyton regressed a bit in 2010, but is still a useful rotational player. He's in a contact year. Dane Fletcher was a nice surprise in 2010 and could displace Guyton as a rotational player. He showed tremendous promise, and BB showed a lot of confidence in him. Loaded.

S: Brandon Meriweather made his second Pro Bowl but was inconsistent, and was briefly benched. He is very talented but has yet to put it all together on a consistent basis, and is in a contract year. Pat Chung showed signs of becoming one of the team's best players on defense, but was slowed down by a knee injury. He should be back full force. James Sanders is a reliable rotational player with limited upside, and is in a contract year. Jarrad Page showed flashes in 2010 but dealt with injuries. He is a tendered RFA at the moment. Brandon McGowan and Bret Lockett spent 2010 on IR, and are UFAs. It is not clear if they will be back. Josh Barrett also spent 2010 on IR. He is a ST demon and could become a hybrid LB/S. Sergio Brown made the team in 2010 as a UDFA, and showed enough to believe that he could stick. Rookie Ras-I Dowling can likely play FS as well as CB. Loaded, but not 100% clear how the long term will shape out.

CB: Devin McCourty became a Pro Bowler as a rookie in 2010, and could become the best CB that the Pats have had since at least Ty Law. Leigh Bodden spent 2010 on IR with a shoulder injury after a solid 2009; he should be back opposite McCourty. Kyle Arrington surprised by playing adequately when forced into a starting role in 2010, and should provide solid depth. Rookie Ras-I Dowling could see time at both CB as FS, and could be the long term successor to either Bodden or Brandon Meriweather. Darius Butler and Jonathan Wilhite will be in a roster fight. Both are capable of manning the slot position, but are liabilities outside. Butler has tremendous athletic ability but has yet to play up to it on a consistent basis and got burned way too much. With so much depth at the position, rookie Malcolm Williams could surprise people and work his way onto the squad as a STer and developmental CB, or could end up on the PS. Loaded.

ST: Zoltan Mesko was a huge upgrade at punter as a rookie, and should improve. Stephen Gostkowski was injured in 2010 but is a former Pro Bowl kicker, and should be back. Matt Katula looks entrenched at the LS position. There is tremendous depth at the return positions and also on the coverage units, with a number of very talented ST players. There will always be turnover from year to year, but this looks like a very deep group. Loaded.

So right now the main positions being reloaded are WR, OG/C, DL, OLB. Safety is a possible position to reload beyong 2011.

 

[Oswlek]

I think in a couple years we'll look back at the RB position as being loaded, with no "relatively" qualifier. I'm very high on the two kids they snagged.

I also don't see safety as being "loaded" at all. Long-term prognosis is a critical part of being loaded and that is murky as hell. Beyond that, I only see Chung as a potentially elite guy. The rest of them are solid, interchangeable guys which creates a lot of maleabilty and injury protection. But NE's best defenses had two playmakers back there and there aren't any sure things right now.