Schrute Mock 2020

[Dwight Schrute]

The annual exercise is back. No matter how many times I say enough, this time of year channels the inner GM wannabe.

I’ve done a LOT of sims. PFF has the best imo, with trades. Though the screen format is not ideal.

That being said we’re off!

On PFF I did multiple trades. For my mock I’m sticking with what went through 3 times for the Pats.

23 to Miami for 26, 56, and 70. PFF says a win 67% of the time.

26 and 195 to GB for 30 and 62. PFF says win 59% of the time.

Recent speculation I’ll run with is Thuney to Miami for 39.

So, Pats end up with 30, 39, 56, 62, 70, 87, 98, 100, 125, 139, 172,
204, 212, 213, 230.

15 picks. I’m using Esterlings ratings. Ratings are all over the map this year so he’s someone I think has had a good grasp in the past so I’ll stick with him. Try to stay within 5 picks of the rankings just to try and keep perspective. More leeway later.

30. Denzel Mims WR 6’3” 207 - phenom athlete. Pure outside threat.

39. Isaiah Wilson T 6’7” 350 - HUGE. Power T. Moves like a much smaller guy. Teammate of Wynn.

56. Cole Kmet TE 6’6” 262- best TE in class. Frame, catch radius, hands.

62. Jeremy Chinn S 6’3” 221 - hybrid S/LB, Combine star, +++range,scary blitzer

70. Akeem Davis-Gaithier LB 6’2” 224 - long, +tackler, + coverage and edge.

87. Bradlee Anae Edge 6’3” 257 - good moves, pop, + motor, ++ edge setter

98. Tyler Biadasz C 6’4” 320 - great run blocker, 2nd level with ease, solid in pass protection.

100. Chase Claypool WR 6’4” 238 - huge, burst, route runner, body control, hands catcher, deep speed, matchup problem.

125. AJ Dillon RB 6’ 247 - definitive power back.

139. Collin Johnson WR 6’6” 225 - high point machine, matchup problem-particularly in RZ, aggressive downfield blocker.

172. Raequan Williams DT 6’4” 310 - powerful hands, “destroyer of worlds” Vs run, not much pass rush but he’ll push a pocket.

204. Jon Runyan T 6’4” 310 - developmental prospect, bloodlines

212. Jared Pinkney TE 6’4” 257 - in-line TE, + blocker, was a YAC threat in past

213. Jake Luton QB 6’6” 225 - pure pocket passer, excellent TD/Int ratio (28/3), developmental

230. Cam Brown LB 6’5” - strong blitzer, high end straight line speed for position, size for rush and edge.



A lot of picks. But I think this is Year 1 of a rebuild, they’ll be more surprise cuts, and Bill wants more players to mold in his program. Back to buying in.

Have at it.

 

[Patriots71]

The annual exercise is back. No matter how many times I say enough, this time of year channels the inner GM wannabe.

I’ve done a LOT of sims. PFF has the best imo, with trades. Though the screen format is not ideal.

That being said we’re off!

On PFF I did multiple trades. For my mock I’m sticking with what went through 3 times for the Pats.

23 to Miami for 26, 56, and 70. PFF says a win 67% of the time.

26 and 195 to GB for 30 and 62. PFF says win 59% of the time.

Recent speculation I’ll run with is Thuney to Miami for 39.

So, Pats end up with 30, 39, 56, 62, 70, 87, 98, 100, 125, 139, 172,
204, 212, 213, 230.

15 picks. I’m using Esterlings ratings. Ratings are all over the map this year so he’s someone I think has had a good grasp in the past so I’ll stick with him. Try to stay within 5 picks of the rankings just to try and keep perspective. More leeway later.

30. Denzel Mims WR 6’3” 207 - phenom athlete. Pure outside threat.

39. Isaiah Wilson T 6’7” 350 - HUGE. Power T. Moves like a much smaller guy. Teammate of Wynn.

56. Cole Kmet TE 6’6” 262- best TE in class. Frame, catch radius, hands.

62. Jeremy Chinn S 6’3” 221 - hybrid S/LB, Combine star, +++range,scary blitzer

70. Akeem Davis-Gaithier LB 6’2” 224 - long, +tackler, + coverage and edge.

87. Bradlee Anae Edge 6’3” 257 - good moves, pop, + motor, ++ edge setter

98. Tyler Biadasz C 6’4” 320 - great run blocker, 2nd level with ease, solid in pass protection.

100. Chase Claypool WR 6’4” 238 - huge, burst, route runner, body control, hands catcher, deep speed, matchup problem.

125. AJ Dillon RB 6’ 247 - definitive power back.

139. Collin Johnson WR 6’6” 225 - high point machine, matchup problem-particularly in RZ, aggressive downfield blocker.

172. Raequan Williams DT 6’4” 310 - powerful hands, “destroyer of worlds” Vs run, not much pass rush but he’ll push a pocket.

204. Jon Runyan T 6’4” 310 - developmental prospect, bloodlines

212. Jared Pinkney TE 6’4” 257 - in-line TE, + blocker, was a YAC threat in past

213. Jake Luton QB 6’6” 225 - pure pocket passer, excellent TD/Int ratio (28/3), developmental

230. Cam Brown LB 6’5” - strong blitzer, high end straight line speed for position, size for rush and edge.



A lot of picks. But I think this is Year 1 of a rebuild, they’ll be more surprise cuts, and Bill wants more players to mold in his program. Back to buying in.

Have at it.

Thanks for putting this out so we can all attack it. Seriously though, amazing work on the trades, now that looks like a Pats draft. Do you think the pats will go that far without drafting a QB?

 

[PatriotInIndy]

I dig the picks. Going to have to make some major roster moves to sign the majority of those picks. We can afford what, like three draft picks right now?

 

[Patriots71]

I dig the picks. Going to have to make some major roster moves to sign the majority of those picks. We can afford what, like three draft picks right now?

Yeah but he has the trade in there that would free up 14 mil from the franchise tag, so that would help in this.

 

[Dwight Schrute]

I dig the picks. Going to have to make some major roster moves to sign the majority of those picks. We can afford what, like three draft picks right now?

The draft leads with Thuney flipped.

That alone frees $13 mil.

Money is no object.

---------- Post added at 11:17 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:11 AM ----------

Thanks for putting this out so we can all attack it. Seriously though, amazing work on the trades, now that looks like a Pats draft. Do you think the pats will go that far without drafting a QB?

To be honest I don’t have a clue.

I’m like everyone else in that I’d LOVE for Bill to have correctly identified yet again the next guy manning the position for the next decade in Stidham. But anyone digging their heels in on that is going off nothing but meaningless pre-season games vs insurance salesmen.

If I were a betting man Hoyer starts the season. It’s so Bill.

If he’s truly of the belief Stid is the next guy then a late flyer on a prototypical frame, pocket passing, excellent decision making developmental prospect makes perfect sense. That’s what I’m thinking.

If I’m wrong my mock collapses.

 

[Hawg73]

I'll give you style points for imagination with those trades that turn 23 (and 195) into 30, 56, 62 and 70.

I hate to lose Thuney, but his tag number is way too high considering the second Froholdt was drafted we all knew that he was the inferior-yet-adequate replacement for a guy that deserved to get paid the going rate. So, yes, I'll accept 39 this year and the cap space in lieu of the compensatory 3rd next.

Far as your players go, you're thinking big as in HUGE and that is an intriguing way to think about a shift in direction.

Most folks say that since you already have N'Keal then you might want to add a speedy guy to diversify and spread the coverage, but what IF you lined up Kmet, Claypool, Mims and Collin Johnson at the same time with Harry? Nobody has the size to cover all of those guys and you could easily force a big mismatch. Interesting.

Of the other guys, I like Anae a lot. He's got NFL toughness which is why a lot of athletic kids don't pan out.

I hate our front 7 situation right now. I expect a couple of guys we can work into the rotation soon. I would have gone more in that direction than pass-catchers, but I like what you did overall.

What happened to your boy Bass? Did he break his leg? I expect we'll draft a young kicker at some point.

 

[Patriots71]

The draft leads with Thuney flipped.

That alone frees $13 mil.

Money is no object.

---------- Post added at 11:17 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:11 AM ----------



To be honest I don’t have a clue.

I’m like everyone else in that I’d LOVE for Bill to have correctly identified yet again the next guy manning the position for the next decade in Stidham. But anyone digging their heels in on that is going off nothing but meaningless pre-season games vs insurance salesmen.

If I were a betting man Hoyer starts the season. It’s so Bill.

If he’s truly of the belief Stid is the next guy then a late flyer on a prototypical frame, pocket passing, excellent decision making developmental prospect makes perfect sense. That’s what I’m thinking.

If I’m wrong my mock collapses.

You think Hoyer starts the season? That would be surprising to me.Mocks are not about being wrong or right, we are all wrong. lol. Mike Reiss wrote an article that where they draft a QB could be a determination on how they see the current position and of Stidham. I like you, do not know what Stidham is, I have read stories, but until a QB is out there for games and going through the ups and downs of a real season, its hard to even get a read on them.

 

[PatriotInIndy]

The draft leads with Thuney flipped.

That alone frees $13 mil.

Money is no object.

---------- Post added at 11:17 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:11 AM ----------



To be honest I don’t have a clue.

I’m like everyone else in that I’d LOVE for Bill to have correctly identified yet again the next guy manning the position for the next decade in Stidham. But anyone digging their heels in on that is going off nothing but meaningless pre-season games vs insurance salesmen.

If I were a betting man Hoyer starts the season. It’s so Bill.

If he’s truly of the belief Stid is the next guy then a late flyer on a prototypical frame, pocket passing, excellent decision making developmental prospect makes perfect sense. That’s what I’m thinking.

If I’m wrong my mock collapses.

Oops. Skimmed over who was traded while trying to work and multitask here. Thanks for clearing it up!

 

[Dwight Schrute]

I'll give you style points for imagination with those trades that turn 23 (and 195) into 30, 56, 62 and 70.

I hate to lose Thuney, but his tag number is way too high considering the second Froholdt was drafted we all knew that he was the inferior-yet-adequate replacement for a guy that deserved to get paid the going rate. So, yes, I'll accept 39 this year and the cap space in lieu of the compensatory 3rd next.

Far as your players go, you're thinking big as in HUGE and that is an intriguing way to think about a shift in direction.

Most folks say that since you already have N'Keal then you might want to add a speedy guy to diversify and spread the coverage, but what IF you lined up Kmet, Claypool, Mims and Collin Johnson at the same time with Harry? Nobody has the size to cover all of those guys and you could easily force a big mismatch. Interesting.

Of the other guys, I like Anae a lot. He's got NFL toughness which is why a lot of athletic kids don't pan out.

I hate our front 7 situation right now. I expect a couple of guys we can work into the rotation soon. I would have gone more in that direction than pass-catchers, but I like what you did overall.

What happened to your boy Bass? Did he break his leg? I expect we'll draft a young kicker at some point.

Great response. That’s how it’s done.

Spot on on the bold. Parcells used to say (in reference to the Jags I think) that a team looked big getting off the plane. Our receiving corps will look like a nba team. I’m thinking it’s tough to cover that much size. Forces one on one due to numbers. There has to be an exploitable matchup in that regard. I’d look for a waterbug UDFA.

I’m with you on the DLine. In hindsight I’d bail on Runyan and go back to my NT fattie Benito Jones Ole Miss 6’1” 330. 5star run stuffing 2gapper.

Bass seems like he can be had as UDFA.

---------- Post added at 12:07 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:02 PM ----------

You think Hoyer starts the season? That would be surprising to me.Mocks are not about being wrong or right, we are all wrong. lol. Mike Reiss wrote an article that where they draft a QB could be a determination on how they see the current position and of Stidham. I like you, do not know what Stidham is, I have read stories, but until a QB is out there for games and going through the ups and downs of a real season, its hard to even get a read on them.

If I’m betting? Yes. If they draft a QB high even more likely.

Don’t know who reported it but someone said and I’ll paraphrase “we like Stidhams development. We feel he’s ahead of Jimmy. But he’s not ready yet.”

That was late last season.

So if that’s the case I’d think Hoyer starts.

 

[Patriots71]

Great response. That’s how it’s done.

Spot on on the bold. Parcells used to say (in reference to the Jags I think) that a team looked big getting off the plane. Our receiving corps will look like a nba team. I’m thinking it’s tough to cover that much size. Forces one on one due to numbers. There has to be an exploitable matchup in that regard. I’d look for a waterbug UDFA.

I’m with you on the DLine. In hindsight I’d bail on Runyan and go back to my NT fattie Benito Jones Ole Miss 6’1” 330. 5star run stuffing 2gapper.

Bass seems like he can be had as UDFA.

---------- Post added at 12:07 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:02 PM ----------



If I’m betting? Yes.

Don’t know who reported it but someone said and I’ll paraphrase “we like Stidhams development. We feel he’s ahead of Jimmy. But he’s not ready yet.”

That was late last season.

So if that’s the case I’d think Hoyer starts.

I agree, but damn if it doesnt look like anymore in this NFL that speed kills. Would still not mind some speed at the wide out position


"If I’m betting? Yes. If they draft a QB high even more likely.

Don’t know who reported it but someone said and I’ll paraphrase “we like Stidhams development. We feel he’s ahead of Jimmy. But he’s not ready yet.”

That was late last season.

So if that’s the case I’d think Hoyer starts."


Hopefully I can say this without an attack from somewhere, but...I'm not sure Brady was probably ready either when he came in when bledsoe got hurt, but hands were forced and that worked out. Maybe playing is a good way to get ready. I mean grabbing the bull by the horns would go a long way in saying that Stidham is the guy. I will be behind this wall from the pelting.

 

[Dwight Schrute]

I agree, but damn if it doesnt look like anymore in this NFL that speed kills. Would still not mind some speed at the wide out position


"If I’m betting? Yes. If they draft a QB high even more likely.

Don’t know who reported it but someone said and I’ll paraphrase “we like Stidhams development. We feel he’s ahead of Jimmy. But he’s not ready yet.”

That was late last season.

So if that’s the case I’d think Hoyer starts."


Hopefully I can say this without an attack from somewhere, but...I'm not sure Brady was probably ready either when he came in when bledsoe got hurt, but hands were forced and that worked out. Maybe playing is a good way to get ready. I mean grabbing the bull by the horns would go a long way in saying that Stidham is the guy. I will be behind this wall from the pelting.

The risk you run.

For some, thrown to the fire is best. For others? It breaks them.

 

[Patriots71]

The risk you run.

For some, thrown to the fire is best. For others? It breaks them.

That is true, I just assumed since they thought enough of him last year to put him at #2 and ship Hoyer off to the colts, that he is ready

 

[Dwight Schrute]

That is true, I just assumed since they thought enough of him last year to put him at #2 and ship Hoyer off to the colts, that he is ready

That’s not how it went down.

Hoyer was a late release. A gamble. In order for Bill to keep a roster player in his mind more likely to be pilfered.

Indy surprisingly swept in after paying big money to Brissett. Unforeseen.

I think the intent was to bring Hoyer right back.

 

[Patriots71]

That’s not how it went down.

Hoyer was a late release. A gamble. In order for Bill to keep a roster player in his mind more likely to be pilfered.

Indy surprisingly swept in after paying big money to Brissett. Unforeseen.

I think the intent was to bring Hoyer right back.

I just thought Hoyer was brought back for his system knowledge and help the young fella out type of thing.

 

[chevss454]

That would be a great draft in my mind, DS. A++


Chinn - I love to take over for DMac in a year or 2. He scored a perfect 10 on RAS for size and athleticism.

Mims and Claypool can run fast plus they have size although Claypool doesn't play as fast as he ran at the combine.



What was your grade for the draft from PFF? Curious.


Now, which current players are we cutting?

 

[Dwight Schrute]

That would be a great draft in my mind, DS. A++


Chinn - I love to take over for DMac in a year or 2. He scored a perfect 10 on RAS for size and athleticism.

Mims and Claypool can run fast plus they have size although Claypool doesn't play as fast as he ran at the combine.



What was your grade for the draft from PFF? Curious.


Now, which current players are we cutting?

Chinn REALLY caught my eye of late, and that’s exactly what I was thinking. S in a year. 2 max.

Harry, Mims, Claypool, and Johnson are a real matchup problem for ANY secondary. Plus they add strong downfield blocking presence when Dillon gets to the second level.

I didn’t put this exact draft through PFF. I used the trades I was able to execute regularly and then referenced Esterlings Top 300 printout for players within 5 spots of selection as a barometer.

None of my sims score too favorably with PFF typically though.

Cuts? Whoever doesn’t perform as well. I think I have an idea of how I’d like to change the DNA a bit to help a green QB- tantalizing matchups to exploit and a power run game to take pressure off. Players that don’t fit that vision are released.

 

[Hawg73]

Harry, Mims, Claypool, and Johnson are a real matchup problem for ANY secondary. Plus they add strong downfield blocking presence when Dillon gets to the second level.

So, we get the general concept of what you're trying to do, but it's worth thinking about what a middle-of-the-road team in Baltimore did in a short time to develop an unconventional system to take advantage of the smaller/quicker, pass-oriented defensive systems that are becoming the norm.

In their version, they morphed into a predominantly power-running team with a freakishly talented QB that is the most elusive runner in the league, never mind that position. You can't overload the box on them and you can't not. They ran teams to death and there was little that could be done to stop it.

Maybe trying to find ever-faster guys to beat ever-faster Ds isn't as smart as developing something innovative based on the kind of personnel available and there are tons of big skill guys in this draft. Maybe Bill and Josh could invent an air-based attack that accomplishes the same sort of thing the Ravens did with the benefit of an enhanced ability to block the perimeter-- something that we really struggled to do last year.

It seems plausible enough on the surface, but could it actually work?

 

[EasyBigFella]

I like this mock a lot. I just can't imagine them making 15 picks, though. I can see them trading them to next year's draft.

 

[Dwight Schrute]

So, we get the general concept of what you're trying to do, but it's worth thinking about what a middle-of-the-road team in Baltimore did in a short time to develop an unconventional system to take advantage of the smaller/quicker, pass-oriented defensive systems that are becoming the norm.

In their version, they morphed into a predominantly power-running team with a freakishly talented QB that is the most elusive runner in the league, never mind that position. You can't overload the box on them and you can't not. They ran teams to death and there was little that could be done to stop it.

Maybe trying to find ever-faster guys to beat ever-faster Ds isn't as smart as developing something innovative based on the kind of personnel available and there are tons of big skill guys in this draft. Maybe Bill and Josh could invent an air-based attack that accomplishes the same sort of thing the Ravens did with the benefit of an enhanced ability to block the perimeter-- something that we really struggled to do last year.

It seems plausible enough on the surface, but could it actually work?

Maybe.

My thought was most teams are going lighter/faster to combat speed. Now we get a roadgrader (not the old perv) legit TEs, and WRs bigger than said DBs that are willing blockers.

We run over teams too. With power, not the elusiveness. And power travels. Plays well in elements. And gets stronger as the game goes on.

---------- Post added at 03:08 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:07 PM ----------

I like this mock a lot. I just can't imagine them making 15 picks, though. I can see them trading them to next year's draft.

Yeah. I’m just embracing the rebuild opportunity. And next years class is already at 10 to boot.