The Pats win.
Despite having a formidable DL, the Rams rank 28<sup>th</sup> in rush defense efficiency despite playing against the 7<sup>th</sup> easiest schedule of opposing run offenses. They have been torched by nearly all offenses who are top-10 in both rushing and overall offensive efficiency as this graph shows.
It's evident the Rams were extremely susceptible on the ground and allowed a 50% success rate or worse in 5-of-6 games. The Rams defense isn’t just allowing opposing teams to be efficient but also rank 25<sup>th</sup> in explosive rush rate (percent of rushes to go for 10+ yards) allowed. They have been better the last two games (2.3 yards per carry allowed) but in those games they sold out against the run when the play-calling was predictable. The Pats can't be predictable. The Rams do a good job of disguising blitzes by bringing up a safety or by blitzing a corner at the last second. Brady will have to be sharp to recognize this.
The Rams pass D is much better: they rank 14<sup>th</sup> in pass defense efficiency and 5<sup>th</sup> in passing success rate allowed (44%). They also played the majority of the season without CB Aqib Talib. Their defense has legitimate splits with and without Talib, with Talib, they played just 2-of-10 offenses ranked inside the top-10 in passing efficiency. It’s tough to draw any conclusions about his impact with so few games played against quality passing offenses.
Their pass defense is solid in terms of efficiency but was hurt by big plays, ranking 29<sup>th</sup> in explosive pass rate allowed (percent of passes to go 20+ yards). Our Patriots rank 10<sup>th</sup> in explosive pass rate on the season but much of that came from Gordon. Hogan and Dorsett should have opportunities to make plays for 20+ yds.
The Rams have actually been very good against pass-catching running backs in terms of success rate allowed (42%, No. 5), yards per attempt (4.7, No. 3), and total yards to the position (477, T-No. 3) but they allowed 11/100 yds to Alvin Kamara last week. Kamara is an elite receiving back but so is James White & White should have a big day considering McDaniels' superior play scripting.
The Rams’ pass D can be further exposed by play-action, specifically on passes between 15-25 yards. Brady benefits from play action with a 3.9 percent boost to his completion rate and a 2.2-yard boost to his yards per attempt (FO). Using
Airyards.com, Brady is above average at completing PA passes on balls thrown between 3-to-25 yards in the air and he is significantly above average on PA passes thrown 10-20 yards in the air. The Rams allow 8.8 yards per attempt to opposing wideouts (27<sup>th</sup>) and 8.3 yards per attempt to opposing tight ends (25<sup>th</sup>). This means there should be opportunities for both Dorsett and Gronk but especially for Hogan who has been more efficient with those targets and is significantly above average at catching passes thrown 15+ yards downfield this season. Brady should have a lot of success throwing the ball even if the Rams double up on Edelman.
Now let's look at formations for the Pats vs the Rams success rate. Here's a graph that shows the Rams have clear deficiencies against 11 (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRS), 12 (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WRS), or 21 (2 RBs, 1 TE, 2 WRs).
In many ways this is exactly the same as KC's defense. This is right in the Pats' wheelhouse which is 40% 11 & 38% 21 personnel packages. I never would have expected this to be so favorable. Mix in PA passes from 21 personnel and this Pats O will be hard for the Rams to stop.
Since the Patriots like to play with 11 or 21 personnel and have 2-3 receivers on the field at a time, the Rams will play with Aqib Talib (90% LCB) and Marcus Peters (57% RCB) on the outside with Nickell Robey-Coleman (92% slot) in the slot. Edelman will likely match up against Nickell Robey-Coleman; JE has been successful against nearly all types of coverage, but especially man with a 75% catch rate. This is where Robey-Coleman has struggled the most, allowing a 109.3 passer rating. I like this match up a lot. Marcus Peters is actually worse allowing a 129.6 passer rating. This is more good news for Hogan and Dorsett who have 119 and 117 passer ratings vs man coverage and Gronk, too. Talib has been a horse though with a 52.7 passer rating allowed; there's no need to even look his way.
Looking at these stats makes me wonder how the hell the Rams got this far with this D. Hint: It's their D Line and coaching with well-disguised blitzes pressuring QBs.
If Brady can sniff out the blitzes and if the OL can keep Brady secure the Pats should score a lot of points on this defense.
Now for the Rams' offense
<table id="post2571099" class="tborder" width="100%" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="5" border="0" align="center"><tbody><tr valign="top"><td class="alt1" id="td_post_2571099" style="border-right: 1px solid #CCCCCC">Their offense ranks 2<sup>nd</sup> in offensive efficiency, 1<sup>st</sup> in rushing success rate (58%) and 8<sup>th</sup> in passing success rate (50%). They were also one of the league’s most explosive offenses, ranking 11<sup>th</sup> in explosive run rate (14%) and 2<sup>nd</sup> in explosive pass rate (11%). A lot of the Rams’ success was due to their offensive line: they rank No. 1 in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards, No. 2 in stuffed yards, No. 1 in second level yards, and No. 6 in adjusted sack rate allowed. Their offensive line was consistently among the leagues’ best in most metrics and helped the offense remain efficient. The battle in the trenches is one of the key pieces of this matchup we have to look at.
So here's the key, If the Patriots can pressure Goff as frequently as they pressured Mahomes (50%), this game is over before it starts. When Goff has a clean pocket he ranks 5th in passer rating (114.1) and 16th in completion percentage (72.1%). But under pressure, he turns into a cupcake with the 35th ranked completion percentage (43.4 percent) and 29th ranked passer rating (58.2.).
The Patriots’ season-long metrics, their 30<sup>th</sup> ranked adjusted sack rate and 30 total sacks, shouldn’t worry the Rams.
Otoh, the conference championship game against the Chiefs should worry the Rams a lot. The Chiefs offensive line had the same adjusted sack rate allowed as the Rams and was unable to contain the Patriots vicious and aggressive game plan. The Patriots played physical press-jam defense while trying to chip TE Travis Kelce every chance they had while blitzing Mahomes. This resulted in an incredible 50 percent pressure rate and made it much more difficult for the Chiefs’ explosive receiving options to get downfield.
There’s a good chance the Patriots come in with a similar gameplan this week to get pressure on Goff and prevent the explosive passes the Rams are so good at. Their ability to dial up blitzes will come down to the ability of the Rams’ receivers to get open quickly. The Rams line up in 11 personnel at the highest rate in the league (90%) meaning there’s a good chance we see Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, and Josh Reynolds on most offensive snaps.
Cooks has a much worse catch rate against man or press (52%) than against zone (78%). It’s naturally a bit easier for receivers to perform better against zone, but the splits aren’t usually this large. It's similar for Robert Woods who also does significantly better against zone (74%) than man or press man (53%). Josh Reynolds is the Rams best WR against man (10/15) but he hasn't been targeted much. He also struggles vs press man and jam. Without Kuup, the Rams general struggles against press, press-jam, and man is great news for the Patriots, who play man defense at the highest rate in the NFL (58.8 %).
Go here for a really good analysis of Goff passing vs our pass D.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/fi...ff-vs-patriots
McVay will call a lot pick plays to counter the Pats' stiff pass D from bunch sets and motion. After last weekend, I'd bet the refs will be on the lookout for legal vs illegal pick plays from both teams.
Nevertheless, the Rams' passing game works bc of their #1 ranked rushing offense which has been beastly. I don't think it matters whether it's Gurley or Johnson or a mix, they should have success. The Pats rank 21<sup>st</sup> in rushing success rate allowed (49%) and 30<sup>th</sup> in explosive rush rate allowed (16%). The Patriots defense also benefited from 7<sup>th</sup> easiest schedule of opposing rushing offenses. They have been stout against the run in the playoffs though, allowing just 60 rushing yards on 22 carries to the Nos. 4 and 6 ranked rushing offenses in the Chiefs and Chargers. So while the matchup looks good on paper for the Rams, the Patriots’ recent play suggests otherwise.
The Rams rank 6<sup>th</sup> in running back pass-catching efficiency and have an edge in this area. Utilizing Gurley and Anderson frequently on screens and in the passing game is not only attacking a significant weakness but will also help to counteract any aggressive Patriots press-jam blitz strategy. Gurley is their James White only bigger.
Imho, the Super Bowl loss hangover finally ended for the Pats 4 games ago. The Pats recent success over the Chiefs and Chargers is far more significant than the season long stats the media will be throwing at us.
Pats win and cover.
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