Superbowl Thoughts and a prediction

[Oswlek]

Last week I rambled about some of my general thoughts on the Giants and the Superbowl.. Now that the SB is closer, it is time for me to go into a little more depth about this matchup. Isn't this your lucky day?! :rocker:

(first, a word of disclosure, I predicted NE to beat Jax 41-17 and SD 35-24. Obviously I am not on the best run right now, so take everything I say with a huge grain of salt. Although, in fairness to me, NE likely beats Jax by that type of score if Gost hits the FG ans Welker holds on to the ball. And how was I supposed to know that Brady was sick? Bah!)

* No matter what excuses I or any Pats fan wants to toss in Eli's direction, he most certainly has improved his play greatly in the last month. In my opinion he has to thank the boys up front for much of his success. Ever since the last NE game, NY's OL has given Manning tons of time to throw the ball and he has stepped up as a result. Even when flushed from the pocket, Eli has made some terrific plays on the run, particularly to his right.

However, I still have some questions about him. Against GB, Manning rarely had to look in any direction aside from Burress who dominated Al Harris. Burress was awesome in that game, catching 11 of 13 passes - 11 catches being one more than the entire rest of the team.

Now, obviously Burress' catches count, but I found it interesting that Manning was 11/13 for 154 yards throwing to Burress and 10/27 for 100 yards throwing to everyone else. When Dallas took Burress away the week before, Manning had OK numbers, but the offense was clearly not as much of a threat. This leads me to believe that Eli isn't quite at the level that people are making him out to be. The key for NE will be limiting Burress' touches while getting enough pressure to make Manning hurry through his secondary reads.

* Another Eli thing I noticed while rewatching some games: He still seems to lose grasp on the specific situation at hand sometimes. I will give you two examples. First, NY's final TD drive against NE was markedly slow with Manning taking several seconds off the clock unnecessarily prior to every snap. There were three plays on the drive - none of which being longer than 12 yards - that at least 30 seconds ran off the clock before the next snap. Another 7 yard pass saw them take 26 seconds off before the next snap.

Against GB, after Plax dropped a perfect throw by Manning at the two yard line, Manning scrambled for a 2 yard gain despite the team being out of timeouts. He then failed to even throw the ball on 4th down despite having about 7 seconds to do so. Sure the coverage was good and sure GB made Manning move in the pocket, but it is 4th down with only 5 seconds left. The odds of a pick being returned for a TD - the only negative in that situation as any return into NY territory would also run out the clock - are infintesimal compared to the chances that a receiver would make a play.

Long story short, Manning will play well if NY's OL gives him the same time they have in the last month. He will play great if that happens combined with Burress being open repeatedly. But if NE can get even decent pressure while minimizing Burress' opportunities, I think that Eli could take a step back.

* Rewatching the GB game surprised me in another way - the Packers played a lousy game. They never gave Harris any help despite it being obvious early that he had no chance against Plax. Their DL was largely dominated by NY's OL (which I credit NY more than blame GB). Favre was pretty terrible despite getting good time on most plays. Every time the defense made a play they would also commit an unnecessary penalty giving NY more chances. NY also recovered 4 of their 5 fumbles. I originally walked away from the game thinking that NY gave an impressive beatdown to a good team. The second time gave me a different impression. I can't see them playing like that against NE and even staying competitive.

* I said this before, but NE has an advantage in this game since they have a catalog of film on NY's improved play and they dealt with it head on. I still think that NY's elevated play caught NE offguard the final week and they will be better prepared for it this time.

* A few times this season, I have been taken aback by something a player or coach said. For instance, when BB said, "On Sunday, that's when we'll make our statement" prior to the first SD game, I knew that they were going to kill them. I'm getting the same feeling now watching the Giants trip all over themselves to convice everyone that they deserve to be here and they can beat NE while nothing comes from NE's locker room. We don't even hear a "Let them say what they want, we're gonna do our talking on the field." Just a giddy Bill Belichick smiling and laughing at the podium. I can't explain it, but I can sense a tremendous amount of confidence from their behavior.

* Thinking about the Carolina comparison that I and others have made, I think this gives me more confidence. Yes, the game was very close with the Cats even having a late lead in the game, but NE really dominated that game early and blew some of their chances. In the first half, they missed two easy FGs and had another makable FG taken away by a stupid, stupid play call (the end around on 3rd and 3). Add to that the lousy squib kick that lead to Carolina's half-ending FG and NE really outplayed Carolina to the tune of a 23-7 score but went in at halftime only up 14-10. I still maintain that if that game was played 100 times, Carolina would have won 10, played a close game 25 times and would have been blown out 65.

Obviously, by that same token, Carolina did play it close which means that the opposite point can be made as well. I just think that this NE team is much better and won't blow so many opportunites.

* For all the talk about about NY's defense in the playoffs, I thought they played a better game against NE than they did GB. They were consistently in Brady's face and I thought that they played the run as well against NE as they did against GB - GB just inexplicably stopped running even though the game was close throughout. I thought GB showed signs of success running in the second half, but maybe I was wrong.

Anyway, NY played as well defensively against NE before as they have in the playoffs, but they still gave up 38 points despite NE missing their right side of the line, Kyle Brady and not having a 3TE package available. Even if NY plays better, I find it hard seeing NY holding NE under 30 points in a dome.

Further along this line, NY allowed NE to score on 7 of 9 real possessions. Along with this, NE's shortest first half TOP drive was equal to NY's longest. The kept it close for as long as they did because they kept NE out of the EZ in the first half and the KO return. But the signs of NE's 22-0 run in the second half were there early on.

* In conclusion, I just think that NE is too strong for the Giants. I see a full circle conlusion of a 38-14 win against a NY team. As always, I welcome your thoughts.

 

[Hawg73]

I have three things to toss out there after reading your stuff.

1st, good job with the Manning breakdown, but I can't really fault the guy for NOT pulling the trigger on occasion because that was why his career was in the dumper earlier this season-- he forced too many balls instead of having the discipline to eat the ball and not turn it over.

The relative lack of turnovers has turned the kid around, but he has always thrown the ball well, imo. I'd call his touch advanced and his arm strength decent, but not outstanding.

2nd, and this relates to the first point-- The Pats played coverage throughout the first half and Manning got on a roll. At some point in the 2nd they started pressuring Eli and he coughed up a fur ball.

Since that same defensive scenario has been our MO for the last 4 games for the most part, and we won a few squeakers, I wonder whether the Pats will do the same thing again.

I'm guessing that we will see increased pressure earlier and that means plenty of Mike Vrabel and Thomas off the edge. I don't want Manning getting too comfortable back there and pressure from the rush combined with the biggest game of his life could cause him to snap and revert to his usual form.

3rd, One guy nobody is talking about for the FOOTball Giants is rookie 7th round pick RB Ahmad Bradshaw. He was hurt for the season finale and hardly played until lately, but he has been pretty damn remarkable in the playoffs, imo. I haven't seen him go down on a first hit yet and he is ROLLING up yardage in big chunks. We better get some hats on him right away because they will continue to feed him the rock especially if Eli struggles. Their Oline is as good as ours and played outstanding against our front 3.

I'm not as concerned about Jacobs as I am the unknown kid who is trying to make a name for himself. We better wrap both of those guys up. Bradshaw runs like a smaller version of Marion Barber.

 

[HarpoonIPA]

Once again Oswlek, you have put together a great read, thank you

 

[Oswlek]

I have three things to toss out there after reading your stuff.

1st, good job with the Manning breakdown, but I can't really fault the guy for NOT pulling the trigger on occasion because that was why his career was in the dumper earlier this season-- he forced too many balls instead of having the discipline to eat the ball and not turn it over.

The relative lack of turnovers has turned the kid around, but he has always thrown the ball well, imo. I'd call his touch advanced and his arm strength decent, but not outstanding.

2nd, and this relates to the first point-- The Pats played coverage throughout the first half and Manning got on a roll. At some point in the 2nd they started pressuring Eli and he coughed up a fur ball.

Since that same defensive scenario has been our MO for the last 4 games for the most part, and we won a few squeakers, I wonder whether the Pats will do the same thing again.

I'm guessing that we will see increased pressure earlier and that means plenty of Mike Vrabel and Thomas off the edge. I don't want Manning getting too comfortable back there and pressure from the rush combined with the biggest game of his life could cause him to snap and revert to his usual form.

3rd, One guy nobody is talking about for the FOOTball Giants is rookie 7th round pick RB Ahmad Bradshaw. He was hurt for the season finale and hardly played until lately, but he has been pretty damn remarkable in the playoffs, imo. I haven't seen him go down on a first hit yet and he is ROLLING up yardage in big chunks. We better get some hats on him right away because they will continue to feed him the rock especially if Eli struggles. Their Oline is as good as ours and played outstanding against our front 3.

I'm not as concerned about Jacobs as I am the unknown kid who is trying to make a name for himself. We better wrap both of those guys up. Bradshaw runs like a smaller version of Marion Barber.

I will grant you that the coaches may have beaten into his head not to turn it over, but he still scrambled up the middle for 2 yards the play before.

I hear so much about Bradshaw that I figured putting him in this post only lengthened it unnecessarily. Sorry about that. I agree that Bradshaw has much better vision and explosiveness than Jacobs. That said, NE has proven to be much better at stopping the run in the playoffs. I also think that the bye week and the rest entailed will help NE even off the athletic advantage that NY might have against NE's LBs.

As far as rushing Eli, I have noticed that Eli scrambles better to his right than his left. Like most QBs, he also has a much harder time with pressure up the middle than off the edges. Because of this, I expect Vrabel to be pretty consistent in his rush lanes while NE plays around with the middle and AD's spot.

 

[patsin??]

good post and prediction



lets hope they win big and we dont get heart attacks

i got a long life in front of me

 

[AllWorldTE]

Nice job on the Manning/Plax connection here. I can see the Pats taking away Plax and taking their chances with Toomer & Smith. Smith isn't going to kill them but Toomer may. I would still rather force Manning to throw where he doesn't want to throw. I would also take into account Eli's ability to escape the pocket and throw well while moving to his right. He has proven to be dangerous there which should dictate the Pats rush lanes and landmarks.

Boss made some plays against the Pats last time and has been playing well so there should be times we see Harrison take Boss away, especially when they bring third down pressure.

Bradshaw is a concern. I would worry more about what he can do running against the Pats' nickle and dime defenses. We saw them get torched by Sproles last game running draws against their Dime when they got fancy. The Pats gisve up any easy scores. Make Manning earn it.

Defensively, the Pats haven't been asking Seau & Bruschi to cover much on early downs giving up the intermediate routes with regularity. It takes away the run but leads to some ugly plays against them. Manning played very well being patient through most of the last meeting throwing against that philosophy.

I now expect a game plan more like what we saw against the Chargers. Mixing things up from the get go, lots of combo coverages, more blitzing and stemming than we saw late in the season. Anything to stop the run while not letting Manning get too comfortable. They will still let the intermediate routes get open but will try to disrupt the reads and timing.

I feel good about the defense going in because of the rest and prep time they've had and the much improved play of Ty Warren and Richard Seymour in the Jax & SD games. Warren is dominating again and Seymour, who was lazy in the week 17 game, has really turned it on for the play-offs. These two alone, along with Wilfork, who has been playing full time and should benefit from a rest, should cause real problems for the Giants run game. McKenzie handled Warren pretty well last time but I expect better competion from Warren this time. The Giants had more success running to their right last time as AD played well against them while Vrabel looked tired. The extra week of rest plus the bye week rest before the Jax game could only have helped Vrabel get rested and ready for this game and should hopefully make a difference.

Your comments about the GB game were right on. I thought watching it that GB was handicapped by their poor defensive game plan and Farve just couldn't function in that biting cold. The Giants were tough to run the ball against in GB and were tough inside in week 17 because their ends and interior D-line were dominant in that game.

The Pats need to find a way to deal with that D-Line if they want to run inside. It may simply be the same situation we've been seeing (and saw in that game) were the Pats feel their way with the running game in the first half, figure out where they can attack and wear the defense out in the second half. The Pats went to the Outside Zone to run the ball last time, which forced the Giants to start bringing their Safeties into run support. They started giving up the deep stuff after that. Do the Pats start off with their starters back trying Outside Zone w/Maroney to bring the Safties down low and then play action the Giants deep? If they have faith that their fresh, healthy O line can do the job early, that may be the way to go, seal off those tough inside DTs and see what Kyle Brady and Evans can do on the edge against Strahan & Osi U.

 

[grog]

I find it interesting that the Pats game planning includes built in adjustments. I mean, you hear the talking heads say to take away the run and force the pass on D or to throw the short stuff early to set up the run later. Yet you imply that the Pats in the first half will try a little bit of everything, find the weaknesses and then go after them hard in the second half. I doubt that many teams have the coaches or players to be able to adjust on the fly like that. I find that very interesting.

 

[AllWorldTE]

They did that in the first game against teh Giants. They tried running inside repeatedly before going outside in the second quarter quarter finding success.


All good offenses do this in a fashion. They will show all their personnel groups and formations early so they can see what the defense is doing against them and try to take advantage of what the defense is giving them. It does turn into a game of adjustments which the Pats are better at than most.

 

[Hemi_1]

I have noticed something about Brady, everytime his first pass is incomplete, he struggles the whole first half.

If that first pass is caught.........Watch Out NY Giants....its going to get ugly for them and quick.

 

[Oswlek]

I find it interesting that the Pats game planning includes built in adjustments. I mean, you hear the talking heads say to take away the run and force the pass on D or to throw the short stuff early to set up the run later. Yet you imply that the Pats in the first half will try a little bit of everything, find the weaknesses and then go after them hard in the second half. I doubt that many teams have the coaches or players to be able to adjust on the fly like that. I find that very interesting.

One of the reasons that Patriots value versatility is this specific mode of attack. NE wants to be able to pass or run from just about any set. They will run a few different packages taking specific note of the responsive personel package run by the defense. Then NE will manipulate them by putting their "heavy" package in (Maroney, Evans and K. Brady) and then pass against the based defense. Or the opposite, leave Brady and Evans on the sideline, but run Maroney/Faulk at the nickle.

 

[Hawg73]

AWTE,

I'm concerned about the fact that, based on our '07 M.O. we pretty much leave Hobbs and Samuel on their respective sides of the field regardless of WR matchups.

If they have flip-flopped at all this year then I must have missed it.

This concerns me because NY can get the Burress-Hobbs matchup anytime they want it, which will probably be all night long and an 8 inch height advantage is too much for Ellis to handle when he has enough trouble with the 6'1" guys.

Since Plaxico is by far the focal point of their passing offense, why wouldn't the Pats put their best and slightly larger cover corner on him? What trickle-down effects might there be from doing so?

I can't see any concrete reason why they would not want Samuel on Burress as much as possible. It seems stubborn and self-defeating to what the end goal is-- winning the bleeping game.

 

[Oswlek]

AWTE,

I'm concerned about the fact that, based on our '07 M.O. we pretty much leave Hobbs and Samuel on their respective sides of the field regardless of WR matchups.

If they have flip-flopped at all this year then I must have missed it.

This concerns me because NY can get the Burress-Hobbs matchup anytime they want it, which will probably be all night long and an 8 inch height advantage is too much for Ellis to handle when he has enough trouble with the 6'1" guys.

Since Plaxico is by far the focal point of their passing offense, why wouldn't the Pats put their best and slightly larger cover corner on him? What trickle-down effects might there be from doing so?

I can't see any concrete reason why they would not want Samuel on Burress as much as possible. It seems stubborn and self-defeating to what the end goal is-- winning the bleeping game.

This has come up in other venues and NE's coaches believe that the consistency of positioning is more conducive to excellent defense. The lack of flipping guys around ensures that the players are where they are supposed to be. Also, NE has been playing a lot of zone, so that also minimizes the beneifts of having your best guy man up on their best.

I personally think that since Burress will likely see a double of some kind on most snaps, so let Hobbs cover him and leave Samuel for the 1:1 matchups, if there are any,

 

[AllWorldTE]

Last week they moved Assante to the other side occationally when he was assigned to cover Vincent Jackson man to man so I woundn't be surprisied to see some of that again this week.

A big draw back to having Assante shadow Plax wherever he goes (when not in man) is recognition. Hobbs has been a left corner and Assante a right corner almost exclusely for three years now. Changing up now could slow the reflex recognition reaction that has been established in their zone coverages over that period of time because they haven't done it all year.

You have to weigh the benefits against the drawbacks. If the Pats flopped CBs with Plax's initial alignment, then it would be easy for the Giants to shift and motion to change the match-up. Now you'll find Plax back on Hobbs in Zone only Hobbs is trying to play him on an unfamiliar side. The Pats would have to have a plan to respond to the match-up shifts and motions, which they have, but it wouldn't prevent the Giant's from getting the match-up they wanted when they really wanted it (unless they came in totally unprepared for bit).

Man coverage, which can be as simple as just assigning Assante to Plax where ever he's goes in differnt coverages, is easier to manage because it doesn't matter where Plax goes, Assante will be with him as long as the adjustments for everyone else are built in which we saw last week are. In true zone though, Assante and Hobbs can switch back and forth with the motion & shifts so they would be stuck.

The Pats will probably try to have a Safety helping Hobbs more often than not on throws over the top (Cover 2 & Cover 4/Quarters) as well as Man under zone if it comes up, but will probably leave him on his own on in cuts like they've been doing for weeks where height isn't a big deal. Hobbs appears to be getting burned on those plays but more often than not it's either someone else's fault or the Pats are just giving it up.

I wouldn't expect to see bombs being completed regularly like what we saw happening against GB. The Pats play their deep zone coverages DEEP to prevent it (that Play-Action pass to Plax to open the week 17 game was a Safety's fault-hopefully that's been fixed). It would take either an extraordinary play or someone falling down for that to happen regularly based on the way the Pats have been playing defense over the last third of the season.

 

[AllWorldTE]

This has come up in other venues and NE's coaches believe that the consistency of positioning is more conducive to excellent defense. The lack of flipping guys around ensures that the players are where they are supposed to be. Also, NE has been playing a lot of zone, so that also minimizes the beneifts of having your best guy man up on their best.

I personally think that since Burress will likely see a double of some kind on most snaps, so let Hobbs cover him and leave Samuel for the 1:1 matchups, if there are any,

We must have been on the same wavelegth while we were typing our responses.

 

[Hawg73]

Thanks for the responses, guys.

That's pretty much what I figured, but thought that Burress is such a predominate threat over the rest of their wideouts that it could be a case for us to trot out something special to deal with him, regardless of the coordination issues that might raise.

As always, they'll probably use a whole bunch of mixed looks that most of us won't be able to recognize watching live, but the one thing that is pretty clear is Plaxico will be on the top of BB's short checklist this week and not many people go nuts on us when that is the case.

When BB decides somebody is getting taken out, then he gets taken out. When the Don speaks somebody gets whacked.

If the final stats show Toomer with more production than Burress, then that won't shock me. I expect it.

 

[ParanoidPatriot]

I have had the scores of 34-10 and 38-10 going through myheads for the last week and a half. Naturally, Patriots victories.

good job Oswlek!

 

[Wandering Athol]

* I said this before, but NE has an advantage in this game since they have a catalog of film on NY's improved play and they dealt with it head on. I still think that NY's elevated play caught NE offguard the final week and they will be better prepared for it this time.

BB will have a big advantage dissecting 3 games of film since the last meeting over Coughlin looking at only 2.

Originally posted by Hawg73 on 01-29-2008
I'm guessing that we will see increased pressure earlier and that means plenty of Mike Vrabel and Thomas off the edge. I don't want Manning getting too comfortable back there and pressure from the rush combined with the biggest game of his life could cause him to snap and revert to his usual form.

Losing Colvin (and to a lesser extent Wright) from what I can tell has the Pats concerned about keeping the front 7 fresh. There are really only 8 guys (counting Green) playing 7 positions for the whole game out there.

I can see Pees bringing Harrison a little more frequently in the first half to create pressure, but I think the majority of the LB blitzes will be limited to the 2nd half, much like we have seen as of late, in order to conserve energy. Vrabel/Warren will most likely be used as they were against Pitt and Jax - to keep Manning from rolling right.


Overall, BB's got to put the locks on Burress - he's the key to the Giants offense; Manning's binky - and limit the 1st and 2nd down running game. The Giants should be able to score points if they remain patient, distibute the ball to the secondary receivers, and run just enough to keep the Pats honest. The G-men will still have to execute almost perfectly to remain in this game IMO however as I don't see how the Giants D is going to be able to slow down Brady & Co. Their secondary is very beatable (although I like what Ross did in the first game), and their front 7 can be worn down.

 

[AllWorldTE]

Re: Re: Superbowl Thoughts and a prediction

Losing Colvin (and to a lesser extent Wright) from what I can tell has the Pats concerned about keeping the front 7 fresh. There are really only 8 guys (counting Green) playing 7 positions for the whole game out there.

The Pats have gotten creative trying to keep that grour fresh. Last week they moved Seymour to the opposite side a few times to give Warren a breather after playing LeKevin Smith there for a few snaps against the Jags there the week before.

They've been most creative though by playing a lot of 40 Dime replacing Bruschi with Harrison and playing a lot of Meriweather in Harrison's spot and using different D-line configurations. Not only does this help keep Bruschi fresh but puts a better coverage player at LB who can still play the run well. The 40 also allows the Pats to rest Vince (and the other D-Linemen) here and there by putting Green in the game, moving Seymour around and using AD as a DE at times. They even lined Seau up at nose for one play last week too.

Speaking of Seau, he's the one player in the Front 7 who never gets a break. He is in on Base, Nickle and Dime. He never seems to leave the field defensively. I saw Vrabel and AD playing some ILB here and there in recent weeks so if Seau needs a breather, the Pats are equipt to give him one. They can play 40 Dime, move AD to ILB and leave Seymour at DE with Green, Vince and Warren on the line with him if need be here and there.

...Their secondary is very beatable (although I like what Ross did in the first game), and their front 7 can be worn down.

Ross played very well in that game before wearing down and getting beat up a bit. I too was impressed with his play. Does he take a seat though with their regular Nickle back expected to play?

 

[EasyBigFella]

My official prediction is:

Patriots 31, Giants 17

 

[Threadkiller]

Thanks for the responses, guys.

That's pretty much what I figured, but thought that Burress is such a predominate threat over the rest of their wideouts that it could be a case for us to trot out something special to deal with him, regardless of the coordination issues that might raise.

As always, they'll probably use a whole bunch of mixed looks that most of us won't be able to recognize watching live, but the one thing that is pretty clear is Plaxico will be on the top of BB's short checklist this week and not many people go nuts on us when that is the case.

When BB decides somebody is getting taken out, then he gets taken out. When the Don speaks somebody gets whacked.

If the final stats show Toomer with more production than Burress, then that won't shock me. I expect it.

All of these posts assume BB will do what is... well, being assumed. That in itself may mean: bet the other way. In the SB vs the Eagles he stuck a rookie on TO and focused on Westbrook. Not that that was terribly surprising. But who knows. He may opt for the same plan of action. Single cover Bareass - let him get his catches and go after Manning or Bradshaw/Jacobs. God knows, Manning makes the Drew Bledsoe "not the face!" face when you come at him. So why not focus on him?

Not that I believe that. But when trying to predict how BB will gameplan, I have found that (like 30 other NFL HCs) I'm often wrong, wrong, wrong.