Lance boasts a cannon for an arm in addition to an ability to carve defenses up on the ground — the modern-day NFL’s dream traits at the quarterback position. He can sling it to all levels of the field with ease and is a monster in the designed run game. We saw it in his showcase game this past fall as well as throughout his 2019 campaign.
Lance found the endzone for 10-plus yard touchdown runs on 10 occasions in his time starting at NDSU, which is double that of any quarterback on this list despite him playing just one game in 2020. Lance also averaged an impressive 13.4 yards per designed run. Obviously, the level of competition has a lot to do with that, but it goes to show what he can accomplish on the ground with his athleticism.
Some quarterbacks on this list have only minor or moderate weaknesses, but this is a massive concern for Lance. It isn’t like Trevor Lawrence, who has flashed bouts of inaccuracy every once in a while; Lance has consistently been inaccurate.
Over the past two seasons, he ranks dead last in percentage of accurate throws beyond the line of scrimmage (44.1%) among the quarterbacks on this list. Not only is that the lowest mark, but it’s the worst by a country mile — 7.5 percentage points. Comparing that to all first-round quarterbacks since 2017, it’d still rank last by a comfortable margin. And Lance did this by throwing to a tight or closing window at the lowest rate among that group.
Accuracy is king, and Lance is going to need to have an anomalous turnaround, akin to that of Josh Allen this past season, to overcome this flaw.
Jones was deadly accurate week in and week out this past season. Just 14% of his passes beyond the line of scrimmage were deemed accurate by PFF’s ball-charting process. Not only did that top all quarterbacks in 2020, but it was better than any quarterback since PFF began charting that data in 2018 — including Joe Burrow. Pinpoint accuracy was a key reason that Jones finished 2020 with the lowest single-season negatively graded throw rate in PFF's seven years of grading college football.
The biggest criticisms of Jones center on his middling physical tools and the near-perfect situation around him at Alabama, with now-Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian calling plays and Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith featuring as the team's top target. That said, Jones’ timing was pristine, and he was vital in the execution of a historically great offense that put up the highest successful pass play rate in the PFF College era (61%).
This was one of many areas where Trask greatly improved in 2020. He often panicked in tight pockets back in 2019, making bad decisions and throws as defenders closed in.
But that was far from the case in 2020.
Trask stayed poised, kept his eyes downfield and maneuvered muddy pockets this past season. He saw his grade under pressure go from 32.9 in 2019 (worst among those on this list by nearly 15 grading points) to 71.1 in 2020 (second among those on this list). It is, however, a whole different ballgame at the next level. It won’t be as easy for Trask to replicate those numbers, especially considering he lacks NFL-level traits.
The NFL is searching for mobile quarterbacks, and Trask simply doesn't fit that bill. Despite seeing 24 starts over the past two years, he busted off only 10 runs that resulted in a 10-plus yard gain. That’s the third-fewest among the 10 quarterbacks on this list — ahead of only Mac Jones and Davis Mills, who saw seven and 13 fewer starts, respectively, than Trask over that span. Trask can operate from tight pockets, but I wouldn’t expect him to make plays out of structure; he’s likely to be a sitting duck out there due to his lack of mobility.
Biggest pro: Quick decision-making
Mills epitomizes “boom or bust.” He was a five-star recruit in the 2017 class, ranking 15th nationally with offers from several bluebloods, including Alabama, but started just 11 games in his college career. There was plenty of good and bad scattered throughout that limited action, but among the good was how quickly he made decisions and how rarely he hesitated. His average time to throw since 2019 after removing screens, RPOs and quick-game passes was one of the 10 fastest in college football. And on those dropbacks, Mills came away with a top-20 passing grade.
Biggest con: Off-platform accuracy
Mills flashed from the pocket, but not on the run. He’s not going to make those highlight-reel plays out of structure at the next level. Mills’ uncatchable pass rate on throws outside of the pocket ranks in the bottom three among players on this list. And when pairing that with the minimal playing time and a concerning rate of turnover-worthy plays on downfield throws (worst turnover-worthy play rate on 10-plus yard throws since 2019 among PFF’s top 10 QBs), Mills becomes a much riskier prospect than others on this list.
From Clemson's Trevor Lawrence to Texas A&M's Kellen Mond, here are the best and worst traits for each of PFF's top quarterback prospects entering the 2021 NFL Draft.
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