The WRs of the 2024 Draft

[TommyD420]

Daniels is much faster…

I don't know about much. Daniels is estimated in the 4.5 range (he didn't run the 40 at the combine or the Pro Day which should raise red flags to everyone). IIRC, Mac was in the high 4.7s at his pro day.

I do know that Mac Jones didn't have legs that were actual twigs. And didn't have to put bricks in his pockets at his weigh-in.

 

[king of kings]

I don't know about much. Daniels is estimated in the 4.5 range (he didn't run the 40 at the combine or the Pro Day which should raise red flags to everyone). IIRC, Mac was in the high 4.7s at his pro day.

I do know that Mac Jones didn't have legs that were actual twigs. And didn't have to put bricks in his pockets at his weigh-in.

I'm fine with Daniels. As long he can learn to be a Pocket QB. Can you stay in the pocket. Make all the correct reads & Throws. Thats were Jackson & Fields struggle. Thats what made Cunningham & Young diffcult to defend.

 

[chevss454]

10. Ainias Smith, Texas A&M, 5'9", 190. Grade 87.5 Starting immediately and learning on the go.
Comp. Golden Tate, Curtis Samuel

He's small but he's built stout. I like him far more than I thought I would. Smith will unlikely earn the draft capital commensurate with his skill because of an ACL tear two years ago and an arrest in Texas for unlawful carrying of a weapon, driving while intoxicated, and possession of marijuana. These things should drop him a round or 2 in the draft with most teams and his background check will be immensely important. Nevertheless, this kid can play. He has legitimate running back strength and it shows with his release packages. His hand counters when releasing against coverage have the strength and violence that will benefit him in the NFL. What some evaluators are missing is that Smith will draw holding and PI calls bc of his physicality at the LOS. This kid plays the game right. Smith’s game shows that he has worked at his craft to become a technically-promising receiver at every phase of his route running. He can set up defenders with his stems. He’ll improve in this area if he learns to work 1-2 steps deeper with thesesetups. That said, Smith’s running back skills translate well to combinations of efficient movements to earn separation. He has a particularly good crossover against off-coverage. He’s a promising slot option who could contribute immediately because of his routes. Smith has notable acceleration out of breaks back to the quarterback. He can sell the post with a head fake and drop his hips into the curl, whip route, or comeback. His weight drop into short routes over the middle makes him a dangerous option against man-to-man coverage from the backfield or the slot. Smith is also one of the most consistent pass catchers in this class. Whether the targets are high, low, over the middle, at the boundary, between defenders, and/or leading him into contact, Smith earns the football. Smith deserves considerable love for how consistently tight his attack is to the football even in when extended. After the catch, Smith is a good running back in the open field. He uses upper body moves and footwork to avoid pursuit.
He’s good at head fakes paired with footwork. He also ducks from reaches. He has lateral agility to work away from contact. He can spin away from contact. He can transition between the tackles from a perimeter track to a downhill track with no prep step. His quickness is easy to underestimate. He lacks elite top-end speed, but he has enough acceleration to flip the field until the speediest defenders eventually chase him down, but he’ll cover enough ground to make big plays. When I watched him I had deja-vu to Golden Tate playing from the backfield for the Lions as a young man. He can play from the backfield, from the slot and from flanker. Smith tracks the ball directly over his head on vertical routes. He doesn’t leave his feet unnecessarily when attacking the ball. He tracks over his shoulder and can extend with overhand position to catch the ball in stride with the target away from his frame at the earliest point.
He's a natural hands catcher and uses the proper hand positions instinctively. As a former RB, Smith runs like one. He uses upper body moves and footwork to avoid pursuit. He’s good at head fakes paired with footwork. He also ducks from reaches. He uses jump cuts to dodge contact. He can spin away from contact and keep moving well. In the open field he can transition across the face of pursuit over the top with a sudden two-step stop and flip of the hips to crossover the defender. His re-acceleration is good enough to beat the defender and pursuit from side he’s heading toward. Smith also has effective speed & balance to bend around tacklers. He has the strength to power though direct contact from a S and keep going. Smith is a high effort blocker and uses good technique. He'll likely be drafted a round or 2 later than his actual value bc of his arrest and he'll provide good value to the team that drafts him so long as that team does its due diligence to make certain he's walked the straight and narrow since that episode. He's likely a day 3 draftee but a day 2 value if he checks out.

Injuries: ACL tear 2 years ago

You can see his development from year to year in this highlight video which starts with him as a freshman.

 

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11. Adonai Mitchell, GA/Texas. 6'2", 205. Grade 86.7. Starter with a rotational role and learning on the go.
Comp. DJ Chark

Here's a receiver who is getting too much love from the draft media, imo. I'm not falling for the hype.
Mitchell transferred to Texas to be closer to his daughter. Mitchell is an excellent vertical receiver for the college game who could become a good vertical receiver in the pros—maybe even a productive secondary starter in an NFL passing game. This will depend a lot on how well he develops his short and intermediate route game. The key to a more well-rounded game for a receiver with the vertical game as his strength is how well he can get defenders to believe he can beat them with timing routes. At this point of Mitchell’s career, he has a lot of work to do with the sharpness/flatness of his breaks for these types of routes. Mitchell also must refine his release packages against man-to-man coverage. He has violent hands, which is a good quality that many prospects lack, but it’s not something he applies with regularity. Mitchell' also doesn’t attack the leverage of his defenders deep enough to set up the effectiveness of the hand counters. Right now, he plays like a raw route runner, undisciplined, uncoached and limited as a vertical receiver. When/if he can develop flatter and sharper breaks inside, outside, and back to the quarterback, he’ll become a more complete receiver.
As he is, Mitchell has enough game to start or contribute in three and four receiver packages as a vertical option or to be a secondary option on underneath routes. However, he’s not a primary matchup receiver because his breaks are not good enough. A top CB will bet on specific routes and know how to play it to their advantage because Mitchell’s technique lapses will give an added advantage of a step or two to undercut or cut off the target after the break. As a pass-catcher, Mitchell doesn’t drop the ball often, but his default attack is the underhand trap that can hurt the performance of receivers in the NFL more often than it did in the college game. He does have a wide catch radius and makes plays against tight coverage.
Mitchell excels as a vertical tracker and can earn the ball arriving directly over his head—one of the most difficult targets to track in football. After the catch, Mitchell has a good feel for timing and executing cutbacks and when to drop the pads and split defenders. At this point, Mitchell will be limited to the role of a vertical X receiver who needs an offense with a strong ground game and play-action passing component. He can be the 3rd or 4th option WR2 X opposite an elite WR1 X who will draw the top CB all game long. Mitchell has some skills - he has good hands, good speed, a very good vertical game, he can take hard contact at the catch point, he runs well after the catch and he'll try to run over tacklers in front of him. These are good tools to have but he'll have to develop far better route running skills to become a legit WR in the NFL.

Injuries: Missed 9 games in '22 with a high ankle sprain.
Medicals: A D has diabetes which he doesn't control maturely. When his sugar is off he gets rude, abrasive and belligerent. Almost uncoachable. Needs to be reined in and kept on track.

 

[Patriots44]

11. Adonai Mitchell, GA/Texas. 6'2", 205. Starter with a rotational role and learning on the go.
Comp. DJ Chark

Here's a receiver who is getting too much love from the draft media, imo. I'm not falling for the hype.
Mitchell transferred to Texas to be closer to his daughter. Mitchell is an excellent vertical receiver for the college game who could become a good vertical receiver in the pros—maybe even a productive secondary starter in an NFL passing game. This will depend a lot on how well he develops his short and intermediate route game. The key to a more well-rounded game for a receiver with the vertical game as his strength is how well he can get defenders to believe he can beat them with timing routes. At this point of Mitchell’s career, he has a lot of work to do with the sharpness/flatness of his breaks for these types of routes. Mitchell also must refine his release packages against man-to-man coverage. He has violent hands, which is a good quality that many prospects lack, but it’s not something he applies with regularity. Mitchell' also doesn’t attack the leverage of his defenders deep enough to set up the effectiveness of the hand counters. Right now, he plays like a raw route runner, undisciplined, uncoached and limited as a vertical receiver. When/if he can develop flatter and sharper breaks inside, outside, and back to the quarterback, he’ll become a more complete receiver.
As he is, Mitchell has enough game to start or contribute in three and four receiver packages as a vertical option or to be a secondary option on underneath routes. However, he’s not a primary matchup receiver because his breaks are not good enough. A top CB will bet on specific routes and know how to play it to their advantage because Mitchell’s technique lapses will give an added advantage of a step or two to undercut or cut off the target after the break. As a pass-catcher, Mitchell doesn’t drop the ball often, but his default attack is the underhand trap that can hurt the performance of receivers in the NFL more often than it did in the college game. He does have a wide catch radius and makes plays against tight coverage.
Mitchell excels as a vertical tracker and can earn the ball arriving directly over his head—one of the most difficult targets to track in football. After the catch, Mitchell has a good feel for timing and executing cutbacks and when to drop the pads and split defenders. At this point, Mitchell will be limited to the role of a vertical X receiver who needs an offense with a strong ground game and play-action passing component. He can be the 3rd or 4th option WR2 X opposite an elite WR1 X who will draw the top CB all game long. Mitchell has some skills - he has good hands, good speed, a very good vertical game, he can take hard contact at the catch point, he runs well after the catch and he'll try to run over tacklers in front of him. These are good tools to have but he'll have to develop far better route running skills to become a legit WR in the NFL.

Injuries: Missed 9 games in '22 with a high ankle sprain

Heard his name hyped up a lot. Thanks for the breakdown

 

[chevss454]

12. Malik Washington, VA. 5'8", 194. Grade 86.7 Immediate starter and learning on the go.
Comp. Demario Douglas

Washington is the typical short receiver where if he hits, he hits big, but there are a lot of short and athletically-stout options who either never earn a role befitting their talents or what they showed in the college game doesn’t translate as well to the NFL. It all depends on how they are used. Washington doesn't have the speed to play the boundary in the NFL - some have compared him to Steve Smith Sr. but he's too slow for that comparison. Ditto Santana Moss. Washington’s best role is primary from the slot with occasional work as a flanker or split end in specific coverage packages where he can earn a mismatch with routes against a safety or slot corner. His deep game is best-suited against safeties and nickel backs he can beat with a combination of his speed, physicality, positioning, and leaping ability. While a capable route runner who should improve to the point that there aren’t notable weaknesses, the true strengths of Washington’s game are after the break. He’s a rugged catch-point receiver with the body control to adjust to the ball away from his frame, including making full layouts or going airborne and taking hard contact. After the catch, Washington can make opponents miss with efficient movement or run through their reaches, wraps, and hits. He’s a powerful runner with a low center of gravity and enough explosion to generate additional power due to the momentum he gains quickly. He’s a smart runner who can execute in the screen and RPO game but also create his own lanes in the open field after earning the ball in zone coverage. Washington lacks the upside of a primary option, which like Adonai Mitchell makes him one of the players in Tier II with the least amount of upside for elite statistical production. It doesn’t mean that he can’t add value to a team and become a high-volume slot receiver with big-play ability after the catch and in the red zone. He's a better route runner from inside the numbers than a gadget player and he's more physical than Tavon Austin. His floor is a part-time slot receiver and return specialist. His ceiling is a productive slot receiver. He's an efficient, rugged runner with a low center of gravity. He has good hands and hand positioning for catching the ball. He tracks the ball over his shoulder but I didn't see him track over his head. His releases are quick and mostly efficient with not much wasted time. He uses his quickness well. He's a very capable route runner with good breaks to gain separation but he lacks the top speed to become a top tier WR. He should become a trusted small slot receiver who can move the chains. He's a try-hard never quit kind of guy we all like. He'll quickly become a fan favorite the same way Demario Douglas has become a fav. If only he were a little bigger...

No significant injuries.

 

[chevss454]

13. Xavier Legette, 6'1", 221. Grade 85.4 Starting immediately with large role and learning on the go. Legette is on the cusp of the Rotational Starter Tier: Executes at a starter level in a role that plays to their strengths.
Comp. Alshon Jeffery

I've seen comparisons of Legette to DK Metcalf but those comparisons don't hold up. Metcalf is 3" taller and 15 lbs heavier than Legette. At this point, Legette can be a valuable WR2 with big-play ability due to his catch-point physicality and speed. If Legette can improve his weight drop on his breaks and can become a more completely nuanced route runner with the way he releases from the LOS and sets up breaks, he could develop into a top WR1 but that's not him right now. The strength of Legette’s game is the way he imposes his weight and speed on opponents at the catch point. He's big, has strong hands against contact and can pull the ball away from tight coverage while taking hard contact. He grew up always faster, bigger and stronger than his opponents so he never had to learn the fine points of the WR position. He'd fit right away in a spread scheme where he can impose his size and speed on quick-hitting routes and catch the ball running toward open space or as a runner on RPOs, screens, and slants, fades etc. where his size is an asset. If Legette never progresses with his route running and can’t become a No.2 receiver in an offense, he’ll wind up a contributor with a specific set of routes for the gameplan but not enough targets to become a reliable producer. He has work to do. His releases from the LOS are quick but he doesn't drive off the line with max acceleration so his releases are not particularly effective. Legette has the speed to beat a cornerback or safety to the opposite flat and pull away for a breakaway run. He has the ability to separate late with a burst after the break on vertical routes 30-35 yards downfield and then pull away from a cornerback’s pursuit after the catch. His breaks on intermediate in- and out-breaking routes lack sharpness. He has a tight line step to generate a flat route, but his break steps and drive steps lack precision. He has work to do. Against man pressure he must cultivate more snap with his breaks. He can do this by punching the boundary arm which he doesn't do now. He drifts on out-breaking routes. Against zone he consistently finds the open triangle. He has a good feel for the boundary while backing into it and can get both feet in bounds. He can fade
out to the boundary with a high-point and drag one foot as he falls backward. Legette displays late hands on back-shoulder targets. He tracks the ball over his shoulder effectively and
he’ll extend his arms underhand with targets that arrive over his shoulder but at knee height while on the run. He can also high-point targets with contact to his back. He executes quick pull-down to protect the target from a defender in tight coverage. He has some lapses with targets where he claps onto the ball – high-points and underhand attacks at the numbers. He has work to do. As a runner, Legette can either break a tackle or drag the defender for extra yardage. He also can simply stay on his feet until help arrives to push him forward.
Legette will dip away from contact rather than hit it head on. He has a good spin move. As a blocker, Legette is patient with his set-up and gives good effort. He doesn't overextend and generally keeps good position. Legette has more physical upside than Adonai Mitchell and Malik Washington who are graded a little higher, but he’s in the middle of the pack of this tier in terms of realizing the ceiling of his potential but his baseline skills and his floor are lower than Mitchell and Washington.

He’s going to be a favorite with the “he’s big and fast” crowd. Legette is worth a pick late in the second round but probably best as a third-round pick. He has work to do.

Injuries: In '23 he suffered an ankle sprain and an upper body bruise

 

[chevss454]

14. Brendan Rice, USC, 6'2", 208. Grade 85.2. Starting immediately with large role and learning on the go. Rice is on the cusp of the Rotational Starter Tier: Executes at a starter level in a role playing to his strengths.
Comp. Bryan Edwards, Corey Davis

Overall, Rice makes a lot of catches that look like he belongs in the starter tier, but he’s earning a significant number of receptions with sub-optimal technique and there are often small juggles or second-catch situations in addition to drops that could hold him back, at least short-term. He may have the same success he had in college without needing to correct these issues with his game, but it’s the difference between Rice having a stronger chance of becoming an immediate starter with high volume and beginning his career a contributor with less volume coming his way. He claps at far too many balls. Ironically, reliable hands were one of the biggest obstacles for Jerry Rice, Brenden’s dad and arguably the greatest receiver of all time, when Rice was a rookie. Brenden has enough variety in his repertoire of releases to do effective work against physical coverage. He can becomemore artful at the line of scrimmage so he can handle savvier defenders he’ll see at the NFL level, but his work isn’t flawed right now as much as he’ll need time to assess what will work best on Sundays. He has the speed to flip the field but he’s not a breakaway option from anywhere on the field. His upside is tapped as a secondary starter capable of delivering high-end statistical production if he earns the commensurate volume. He attacks the leverage of defenders at full speed and can use stem widening/narrowing and setup devices at the top of stems to bait defenders. His turns are flat on speed breaks and his hard breaks have enough weight drop to earn separation. Rice understands the zone triangle as a route runner. He identifies the second-level defender, works to depth, and settles in the open area and he’ll also adjust to coverage working into the area of the zone he has entered so he can create space for the quarterback to deliver the ball. He does this well against defenders working to undercut him, fading to greater depth so the quarterback can fit the ball over the defender. Rice has good hand strength, body positioning, and toughness at the catch point. At worst, Rice’s hands are enough for him to contribute. He’s not a Marquez Valdes-Scantling whose reputation, although not completely accurate, is that he has to drop one to catch one. Rice excels at getting his feet above the shots of defenders as a ballcarrier. It’s one of his best skills and compensates somewhat for average speed and power. He works well behind blocks. This combined with his ability to avoid trash and low shots makes him a better runner than his athletic profile may suggest. He’s a flanker in USC’s offense and should remain in this role in the NFL. He’d probably do best in a high-powered variant of a West Coast Scheme. CBs can run Rice down in the open field—even a corner Rice ran past due to a leverage advantage earlier in the play. Rice has the speed to get deep against zone coverage and play-action passes. Rice will leave his feet unnecessarily to attack a target at the shoulders and use underhand position with the defender to his back or outside hip on an inside-breaking route. He may be shielding the defender with his back, but allowing the ball into his body is not ideal in this situation. He tracks the ball over his shoulder on vertical routes and can extend wide for the ball while still on the move. Interestingly, he will reach behind his break path and attack the ball with overhand position at the earliest window. He does a good job catching targets at the numbers with arms extended from his frame and using overhand attack.
He uses his body well to shield defenders. As a runner, he has good awareness of a defender behind him and generally pivots well away from him. He only needs two steps to transition from an outside path to a downhill path and can cut under a flat defender with that transition. He executes quick stops and flips of his hips in the open field to make defenders overrun angles. He ducks under contact effectively. He’ll drop his pads into oncoming contact. He uses a stiff-arm effectively to fend off reaches to his frame. He’ll use it when he’s hurdling a shot to his legs. He's a capable blocker who uses good technique and power. It's easy to see Rice has had good coaching and has worked at his technique but his lack of athleticism will limit him to a WR2 and if he continues to clap at balls, he will be limited to a WR3. His 7.92 RAS score ranked 649 out of 3121 WR from 1987 to 2024.

No injuries noted.

 

[chevss454]

15. Javon Baker, Bama/Central Fla., 6'1", 202. Grade 85.2. Starting immediately with large role and learning on the go. Baker is on the cusp of the Rotational Starter Tier: Executes at a starter level in a role playing to their strengths.
Comp. Jeremy Maclin, NFL
Comp. Brenden Rice, this draft. So many similarities from body type, good coaching/great route running and good hands, good YAC and more, to negatives such as clapping at balls, less than ideal speed and below avg overall athleticism for an NFL WR1 (Rice scored 7.92 RAS and Baker scored 7.93 RAS). There is a lot to like about both players and they are already well developed enough that the Patriots don't have to develop them, which is a good thing imo,...but they will never be a true WR1.

Baker is a natural flanker with some split-end abilities at the catch point. He’s skilled route runner with refined footwork against man-to-man coverage, nuanced manipulation techniques to bait defenders in the wrong direction before his breaks, and the snap with his breaks to generate an extra step of separation. Baker wins a lot of targets away from his frame because he positions his frame effectively and has the concentration to earn the ball against tight coverage and collisions. He’ll win more when he corrects a flaw with his attack where he widens his
hands just enough at the last moment and it forces him to clap at balls unnecessarily, similar to Brenden Rice. Also similar to Brenden Rice, because Baker is a good but not great athlete by starter standards for the position, there’s a very low margin of error that will define success and failure with his game. (Rice scored 7.92 RAS and Baker scored 7.93 RAS.). If these issues that nag him at UCF carry over to the NFL, it could magnify the difference between what Baker is and what he could become despite promising moments on the field.

I won't go on about Baker since he's so similar to Rice. I'll just say I'd like either of these guys in a Patriots' uni (middle rounds) because even if they aren't true WR1 prospects because of limited athleticism, they are both already highly nuanced route runners & skilled enough to be terrific WR2 complements to a true WR1. (They are already well developed as receivers)

No injuries noted.

 

[chevss454]

I've been asked where Keon Coleman is in my rankings. The short answer is "he's not". He can't get separation against man coverage. That limits him to being a big slot and
he'd only be marginal there. The Pats had best look elsewhere for their receivers and I'm certain they are aware of Coleman's short comings.

This just came out yesterday which sums up my assessment


View: https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/status/1780337252322705474

 

[BostonTim]

I've been asked where Keon Coleman is in my rankings. The short answer is "he's not". He can't get separation against man coverage. That limits him to being a big slot and
he'd only be marginal there. The Pats had best look elsewhere for their receivers and I'm certain they are aware of Coleman's short comings.

This just came out yesterday which sums up my assessment


View: https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/status/1780337252322705474

Just flat out perfect!

Cheers

 

[chevss454]

16. Johnny Wilson, FSU/AZ State. 6'6", 235. Grade 85. Immediate starter with large role and learning on the go. Wilson is on the cusp of the Rotational Starter Tier: Executes at a starter level in a role playing to their strengths.
Comps: Brandon Marshall/Chase Claypool with some Kelvin Benjamin thrown in.

Wilson is an intriguing guy who will invite claims that he should be a move TE. I disagree & I'm evaluating him here as a WR only with the versatility to play all 3 WR positions.
Wilson has the size, physicality, and quickness to become a good secondary starter on an NFL team—good enough that one day, he could invite debate about whether he’s actually a WR1 from the NFL media and general public. He's not Calvin Johnson but could be devastating in short yardage possession and red zone for TDs.
Wilson is not only a quick accelerator who eats a lot of cushion fast, but he has violent hands to counter defenders at the line of scrimmage and at the top of stems. He sets up his hands with patient and sudden footwork. Wilson lacks a full library of release techniques, but he offers enough to earn separation against man-to-man coverage with his size and body control.
His 4.52-speed is only 1/100 th of a second slower than CeeDee Lamb’s time as a 6’1”, 198-pound primary option for the Cowboys. Wilson wears that speed well with 5 inches and
23 more pounds on his frame. More impressive is Wilson’s body control at the catch point. He can high-point, dig out low throws, and extend ahead or behind his path to earn the ball. He makes it a habit to attack the ball early and when forced to extend for the ball, Wilson’s hands remain tight at the catch point. When Wilson has an uncharacteristic target where he doesn’t use the appropriate attack, it’s because the ball arrived earlier than he expected. Overall, Wilson knows his assets as a receiver and has the confidence to attack targets in tight spaces
and win the ball during ensuing collisions with safeties and linebackers. 6'6" receivers with his strength are hard to cover. He also has the strength to transition quickly to a runner and
has the moves to pull through arm tackles easily and escape from wraps from a CB. At the very least he will drag defenders wrapped around him from behind or push defensive backs downfield when colliding head-on, if not knock them over or bounce off. Wilson has the upside to become a high-volume possession receiver capable of big plays due to his size, contested-catch potential, and skill in the open field. I'm surprised how good he looked based on technique.
He'd fit well in a spread scheme where he can gain early separation into space on quick-hitting routes or work double moves off those routes to earn early separation on vertical routes. Wilson uses his size the way a big receiver should at the catch point, in the open field, and at the line of scrimmage. He has surprisingly good breaks for a big man and if he can build on this in the NFL, he could become a high-volume receiver. He's more sure-handed than Brandon Marshall was and Marshall had a long successful career. He's faster than Kelvin Benjamin. Wilson tracks balls well over his shoulder and he's aware of the boundary to toe-tap when necessary. Overall, he's a very good route runner who is especially proficient catching a back shoulder fade. He has late hands, good hand positioning at the catch point, strong hands against contested balls and he high points balls easily. His catch radius is other worldly and he knows how to use it. If he has a weakness it's that his blocking could be better although he gives good effort.
I'd love Wilson as a late day 2 or early day 3 pick for the Pats. He's way more advanced as a WR than I initially gave him credit for being.

Injuries: Missed 3 games in '21 to a hammy. Missed 1 game in '22 with a leg bruise. Missed 2 games in '23 with an undisclosed injury after a collision with a tackler. It wasn't reported as a concussion.

 

[chevss454]

17. Luke McCaffery, Rice Univ. 6'1", 200. Grade 84.4 Rotational starter. Executes at a starter level in a role playing to their strengths. McCaffrey is on the cusp of the Starter Tier: Starting immediately with a large role and learning on the go.
Comp. Antoine Greene, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Like his All-Pro older brother, McCaffrey is a sudden athlete with decent long-speed and elite acceleration and short-area quickness. McCaffrey has developed a promising foundation as a
technician to leverage those athletic skills. He has a capable arsenal of release footwork and hand counters to defeat tight coverage at the line or the top of his stems. He's ahead of the
game in that regard. He has more to learn that can take his game to another level, but he performs what he knows well and that’s better than having a lot of technical tools that are executed halfway. His drive step on speed breaks can be sharper. The breaks end flat, but they aren’t flat immediately out of the turn and he doesn’t get flat enough early enough to work back to the quarterback quickly. The same is true with the depth of the weight drop with his three-step breaks. McCaffrey is aware of the boundary and adjusts his frame and footing to stay inbounds. He tracks the ball over his shoulder against tight coverage and extends well for the ball. He displays late hands on back-shoulder fades. McCaffrey can make back-shoulder catches and uses the appropriate attack for a variety of targets. He can do a better job recognizing when he has a lot of cushion as the catch point where an overhand attack at the earliest point will get him downhill earlier than waiting on the ball. He also drops passes because of his lapses with hand position. When tracking a short out over his shoulder, he will trap
the ball to his chest with underhand position if he’s anticipating trail coverage to wrap and he wants his back to the defender. McCaffrey makes the late turn on back-shoulder fades and has an effective pull-down to avoid contact to the ball. He’ll embrace the fall while going to the ground. His gauging of when to execute a jump-through isn’t effective enough and these are the plays that can separate a starter from a contributor. McCaffrey is effective at taking contact to his back or chest at the catch point and he can earn the ball against contact while making adjustments away from his frame to earn the target. This includes hard contact from larger defenders with a runway into the collision. He’s a tough, athletic kid. His breaks improved with
each game he played this season. He could develop into a starter in an E-P or West Coast Offense either as a slot option or flanker. He probably has more immediate upside as a slot as
a secondary starter/WR2-3 who can make the defense pay for not having two strong corners on the team. He has the quickness to start in the slot and eventually bounce between flanker and slot. He needs to learn to become a more nuanced route runner with setting up his stems and breaks. If he can't learn proper hand position technique and how to set up his breaks, he'll be limited to a lesser role. I think he will learn but it may take some time. His release tool box is well developed but he sometimes wastes motion. He's a tough kid who knows how to absorb a hard hit without injury. McCaffrey has the speed to beat a man-to-man corner 30-35 yards from the line of scrimmage up the boundary. When McCaffrey wins the ball in stride downhill and has two yards on a safety, he can maintain that separation for about 20-25 yards before that safety runs him down. He's not a breakaway guy but he can flip a field. He is
boundary aware and tracks the ball over his shoulder at a high trajectory away from his frame that allows him to extend his arms for the ball with overhand position rather than underhand position. McCaffrey can high-point in a tight zone and take a hit from a linebacker into his chest from the underneath zone peeling off his assignment to get downfield. He can also highpoint and take a hit in the back from a safety with a long runway into the collision showing his toughness and focus on ball security. He has a quick stop and start as a runner. He has
good vision and is able to evade pursuit in the open field. His balance is top notch. He has a strong stiffarm and he will lower his pads when necessary. As a blocker he will overextend at times but gives big effort. He'll improve his blocking quickly in the NFL. Overall, McCafferey is a willing and able student who needs more time to develop.

No significant injuries to report.

Some of these catches require a great amount of courage and he's up to that challenge. In the NFL he'll be a slot or flanker as he doesn't have the speed to be an X.

 

[sg14]

16. Johnny Wilson, AZ State. 6'6", 235. Grade 85. Immediate starter with large role and learning on the go. Wilson is on the cusp of the Rotational Starter Tier: Executes at a starter level in a role playing to their strengths.
Comps: Brandon Marshall/Chase Claypool with some Kelvin Benjamin thrown in.

Wilson is an intriguing guy who will invite claims that he should be a move TE. I disagree & I'm evaluating him here as a WR only with the versatility to play all 3 WR positions.
Wilson has the size, physicality, and quickness to become a good secondary starter on an NFL team—good enough that one day, he could invite debate about whether he’s actually a WR1 from the NFL media and general public. He's not Calvin Johnson but could be devastating in short yardage possession and red zone for TDs.
Wilson is not only a quick accelerator who eats a lot of cushion fast, but he has violent hands to counter defenders at the line of scrimmage and at the top of stems. He sets up his hands with patient and sudden footwork. Wilson lacks a full library of release techniques, but he offers enough to earn separation against man-to-man coverage with his size and body control.
His 4.52-speed is only 1/100 th of a second slower than CeeDee Lamb’s time as a 6’1”, 198-pound primary option for the Cowboys. Wilson wears that speed well with 5 inches and
23 more pounds on his frame. More impressive is Wilson’s body control at the catch point. He can high-point, dig out low throws, and extend ahead or behind his path to earn the ball. He makes it a habit to attack the ball early and when forced to extend for the ball, Wilson’s hands remain tight at the catch point. When Wilson has an uncharacteristic target where he doesn’t use the appropriate attack, it’s because the ball arrived earlier than he expected. Overall, Wilson knows his assets as a receiver and has the confidence to attack targets in tight spaces
and win the ball during ensuing collisions with safeties and linebackers. 6'6" receivers with his strength are hard to cover. He also has the strength to transition quickly to a runner and
has the moves to pull through arm tackles easily and escape from wraps from a CB. At the very least he will drag defenders wrapped around him from behind or push defensive backs downfield when colliding head-on, if not knock them over or bounce off. Wilson has the upside to become a high-volume possession receiver capable of big plays due to his size, contested-catch potential, and skill in the open field. I'm surprised how good he looked based on technique.
He'd fit well in a spread scheme where he can gain early separation into space on quick-hitting routes or work double moves off those routes to earn early separation on vertical routes. Wilson uses his size the way a big receiver should at the catch point, in the open field, and at the line of scrimmage. He has surprisingly good breaks for a big man and if he can build on this in the NFL, he could become a high-volume receiver. He's more sure-handed than Brandon Marshall was and Marshall had a long successful career. He's faster than Kelvin Benjamin. Wilson tracks balls well over his shoulder and he's aware of the boundary to toe-tap when necessary. Overall, he's a very good route runner who is especially proficient catching a back shoulder fade. He has late hands, good hand positioning at the catch point, strong hands against contested balls and he high points balls easily. His catch radius is other worldly and he knows how to use it. If he has a weakness it's that his blocking could be better although he gives good effort.
I'd love Wilson as a late day 2 or early day 3 pick for the Pats. He's way more advanced as a WR than I initially gave him credit for being.

Injuries: Missed 3 games in '21 to a hammy. Missed 1 game in '22 with a leg bruise. Missed 2 games in '23 with an undisclosed injury after a collision with a tackler. It wasn't reported as a concussion.

Think you meant FSU

 

[chevss454]

Think you meant FSU

Yeah, FSU/AZ State. I added it. Thanks, sg14.

 

[Hawg73]

Great stuff, Chevs. Thank you for the detail and hard work.

I haven't been considering the guys who figure to be available at 32 all that much, figuring we'll take an OT, but if we ended up with Rice, McCaffrey or Johnny Wilson
later on I'd at least feel like they have a chance to stick and be players that could help us.

Considering how inexperienced McCaffrey is at playing WR, he looks good. I'm very curious to see where he ends up. I've also been a little
puzzled at why Johnny Wilson isn't getting more interest. I know he had his ups and downs in College, but a few years ago he looked like
a sure-fire top 15 guy.

 

[aloyouis]

This level of posting by Chev is off the damn charts.

Thank you big block!

 

[chevss454]

Great stuff, Chevs. Thank you for the detail and hard work.

I haven't been considering the guys who figure to be available at 32 all that much, figuring we'll take an OT, but if we ended up with Rice, McCaffrey or Johnny Wilson
later on I'd at least feel like they have a chance to stick and be players that could help us.

Considering how inexperienced McCaffrey is at playing WR, he looks good. I'm very curious to see where he ends up. I've also been a little
puzzled at why Johnny Wilson isn't getting more interest. I know he had his ups and downs in College, but a few years ago he looked like
a sure-fire top 15 guy.

McCaffrey has made up a lot of ground quickly which is why I think he'll continue to learn at breakneck speed. Give him a year and he'll successfully address his "issues".
I'm convinced Wilson won't end up like Kelvin Benjamin. This kid is far better than I expected and he's an accomplished route runner.
Rice (or Javon Baker who is his doppelganger) would work just fine. For a pick at 34 I'd take Xavier Worthy if he's there. He's destined to be a star.

 

[Hawg73]

McCaffrey has made up a lot of ground quickly which is why I think he'll continue to learn at breakneck speed. Give him a year and he'll successfully address his "issues".
I'm convinced Wilson won't end up like Kelvin Benjamin. This kid is far better than I expected and he's an accomplished route runner.
Rice (or Javon Baker who is his doppelganger) would work just fine. For a pick at 34 I'd take Xavier Worthy if he's there. He's destined to be a star.

I watched a lot of USC the last two years due to Caleb and I don't know how many times I saw Rice score a long TD. At least a dozen.
I'm not a scout, but I assumed he'd be a top 10 type of prospect. I was really surprised that he was ranked, like, 20th or whatever. I'd be happy
to see us draft him. Any of the above, really. Hell, there is hardly anybody that couldn't help us more than some of the guys on the
roster.

At least we have to assume that his pops taught Rice a few things about the fundamentals of the position which nobody, apparently, ever did
for Tyquan Thornton.

 

[chevss454]

I watched a lot of USC the last two years due to Caleb and I don't know how many times I saw Rice score a long TD. At least a dozen.
I'm not a scout, but I assumed he'd be a top 10 type of prospect. I was really surprised that he was ranked, like, 20th or whatever. I'd be happy
to see us draft him. Any of the above, really. Hell, there is hardly anybody that couldn't help us more than some of the guys on the
roster.

At least we have to assume that his pops taught Rice a few things about the fundamentals of the position which nobody, apparently, ever did
for Tyquan Thornton.

That Rice isn't a top 10 guy is more a testament to the quality of depth of this class than it is about him. He (and Baker) are terrific prospects who have a few things to clean
up and they should be fairly easy to clean up. I have no worries about either of them having long productive careers in the league. Any other year Rice would be much higher
ranked.

Johnny Wilson is the guy who surprised me being as good as he was technically. The guy has had some really good coaching and he's taken what he's learned to the field. Mismatch.
Xavier Worthy is my guy this year - I'll plant a flag for him. All 3 WR positions & return guy. Mismatch.

Nabers and Odunze are 1a and 1b in my mind. We have no shot at them unless it's with 3. They can do everything a 3rd yr NFL WR should be doing. MHJ is right behind them because
of his natural tendency to use underhand technique against his body instead of overhand technique away from his body. Pipedreams, all 3. Mismatch Xs 3.

Thornton is interesting. He should be more productive than he is. I don't think Troy Brown did any favors for any of our guys and especially for Thornton whose skillset is totally different
than Brown's. New WR's coach Tyler Hughes may be able to help Thornton succeed. Hughes was at U of Washington last year as Offensive Quality Control coach who watched Rome Odunze & Penix work first hand. Hughes has been learning the WR position and offense in general for 20 years. He should be ready to have a breakout year putting all that stored knowledge to good use this year for us. He learned under Josh McDaniels with us 4 yrs ago and under Patricia 3 years ago. He also spent a year under Urban Meyer at OSU. He's lived through the good, the bad and the ugly so he knows the difference. My mind wanders sometimes for a few milliseconds to Hughes' connection with Odunze and Penix if Wolf snags a bag in a trade back but Penix's fumbles quickly dash that notion and then Nix flashes for an instant until memories of him at Auburn burn again.