Warren Sharp Explains the Exploding Patriot Salary Cap Bomb Left by Ziegler/McDaniels

DropKickFlutie

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1. Warren Sharp is a NFL expert who writes a 500+ page NFL betting preview book every season.

2. John Carroll college roommates Dave Ziegler and Josh McDaniels (and before that their other college roommate Nick Caserio) preceded their departures with 8-years of draft class turds but also left the gift of a massive exploding Patriot salary cap bomb that hit this season. Good riddance to the 3 idiot college roommates. These 3 stooges rode TB12’s coattails for a long time, and then left before getting too obviously exposed.

Warren Sharp explains the Patriot salary cap bomb eloquently:

Hunter Henry went from a $6.8 million cap hit in 2021 to $15 million this year.


Jonnu Smith went from a $5.6 million cap hit in 2021 to $13.7 million this year.

Matt Judon went from a $6.3 million cap hit in 2021 to $16.5 million this year.

Nelson Agholor went from a $6.9 million cap hit in 2021 to $14.9 million this year.


Kendrick Bourne went from a $3.1 million cap hit in 2021 to $6.4 million this year.

Every single player costs over double against the cap this year what they did in 2021.

Collectively, those five free agents cost $28.7 million against the cap in 2021. In 2022, $28.7 million became $66.5 million. While the 2022 cap increased to $208.2 million, that’s only up $25.7 million from 2021. These five players alone have a cap increase just themselves of $38 million, well higher than the $25.7 million total that the cap increased. The four most expensive players on the Patriots’ roster based on 2022 cap hit are all free agents from that 2021 class: Judon, Henry, Agholor, and Smith. These aren’t even all the free agents the Patriots signed in 2021, let alone other rostered players whose salaries jumped a ton. For example, left tackle Isaiah Wynn’s cap hit jumped from $3.6 million in 2021 to $10.4 million this year.

Look at it through this lens: The most expensive receiving corps (wide receivers plus tight ends) in 2022 in the NFL:
1. $72.2 million - Patriots
2. $53.8 million - Jaguars
3. $49.5 million - Chargers
4. $47.4 million - Giants

It’s truly wild. The Patriots are nearly $20 million more than even the No. 2 group in the NFL.
If you look at either of those two receiving groups (or the Giants), there is no way you would believe they would be a top-4 receiving corps in the NFL in 2022. This is the result of free agency spending catching up.

Because of that, other players had to go. Starting cornerback J.C. Jackson is now with the Chargers. No player since at least 1980 has more interceptions in his first four seasons than Jackson’s 25.

Starting guard Shaq Mason is now with the Buccaneers after a trade. Out of 88 qualifying guards, he graded out fourth overall by PFF (second-best RG). He was sixth in run blocking and 17th in pass blocking.

Starting guard Ted Karras is now with the Bengals. Out of 88 qualifying guards, he graded out as the seventh-best in pass blocking by PFF last season.

Starting linebacker Kyle Van Noy is now with the Chargers. He played 75% of snaps and graded out as best in coverage last season, per PFF, among 90 qualified linebackers. These are the losses, two quality offensive lineman and two top-5 coverage players on the Patriots defense.
 
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Big/Sky/Fly

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All of them sans Judon and Henry could have been signed for much less...but, 20/20 rear view stuff.

Kinda useless now when you have to look to the future.
 

Big/Sky/Fly

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1. Warren Sharp is a NFL expert who writes a 500+ page NFL betting preview book every season.

2. John Carroll college roommates Dave Ziegler and Josh McDaniels (and before that their other college roommate Nick Caserio) preceded their departures with 8-years of draft class turds but also left the gift of a massive exploding Patriot salary cap bomb that hit this season. Good riddance to the 3 idiot college roommates. These 3 stooges rode TB12’s coattails for a long time, and then left before getting too obviously exposed.

Warren Sharp explains the Patriot salary cap bomb eloquently:

Hunter Henry went from a $6.8 million cap hit in 2021 to $15 million this year.


Jonnu Smith went from a $5.6 million cap hit in 2021 to $13.7 million this year.

Matt Judon went from a $6.3 million cap hit in 2021 to $16.5 million this year.

Nelson Agholor went from a $6.9 million cap hit in 2021 to $14.9 million this year.


Kendrick Bourne went from a $3.1 million cap hit in 2021 to $6.4 million this year.

Every single player costs over double against the cap this year what they did in 2021.

Collectively, those five free agents cost $28.7 million against the cap in 2021. In 2022, $28.7 million became $66.5 million. While the 2022 cap increased to $208.2 million, that’s only up $25.7 million from 2021. These five players alone have a cap increase just themselves of $38 million, well higher than the $25.7 million total that the cap increased. The four most expensive players on the Patriots’ roster based on 2022 cap hit are all free agents from that 2021 class: Judon, Henry, Agholor, and Smith. These aren’t even all the free agents the Patriots signed in 2021, let alone other rostered players whose salaries jumped a ton. For example, left tackle Isaiah Wynn’s cap hit jumped from $3.6 million in 2021 to $10.4 million this year.

Look at it through this lens: The most expensive receiving corps (wide receivers plus tight ends) in 2022 in the NFL:
1. $72.2 million - Patriots
2. $53.8 million - Jaguars
3. $49.5 million - Chargers
4. $47.4 million - Giants

It’s truly wild. The Patriots are nearly $20 million more than even the No. 2 group in the NFL.
If you look at either of those two receiving groups (or the Giants), there is no way you would believe they would be a top-4 receiving corps in the NFL in 2022. This is the result of free agency spending catching up.

Because of that, other players had to go. Starting cornerback J.C. Jackson is now with the Chargers. No player since at least 1980 has more interceptions in his first four seasons than Jackson’s 25.

Starting guard Shaq Mason is now with the Buccaneers after a trade. Out of 88 qualifying guards, he graded out fourth overall by PFF (second-best RG). He was sixth in run blocking and 17th in pass blocking.

Starting guard Ted Karras is now with the Bengals. Out of 88 qualifying guards, he graded out as the seventh-best in pass blocking by PFF last season.

Starting linebacker Kyle Van Noy is now with the Chargers. He played 75% of snaps and graded out as best in coverage last season, per PFF, among 90 qualified linebackers. These are the losses, two quality offensive lineman and two top-5 coverage players on the Patriots defense.
Van Noy wasn't good last year...especially in the playoffs. OOF!
 
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DropKickFlutie

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Godchaux...

Blood pressure rises when I see this name. Completely overrated. Godchaux is a stat padder of tackles, not stout in the run. Repeatedly pushed back last year. Does anyone remember a half dozen games last year of giving up 180+ opponent rushing yards.
 

Flagg the Wanderer

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It was a 1 year concentrated hit timed to happen when they are paying their QB squat. Next year they have 41 guys signed with $55MM space to spare and the ability to gain at least $20-25MM more by painlessly extending Henry, Brown, Wise, Bourne, Mills, Andrews, and Parker...and that's assuming we want to keep all of those guys. They cost a total of about $55MM combined, but only about $15MM dead cap. If McCourty wants to keep playing we can extend him for another several MM, since 2023 is his void year.

The Patriots are in pretty good cap shape, in spite of a few bad contracts. I'd say only Smith and Agholor are really problematic, and mostly Smith. The cap is over $200MM, so the average player's cap hit is a little under $4MM. Judon is well worth 4x that amount. Henry is close. Bourne at 1.5x the average salary? Hardly a crippler. Mills at 1.5x? Bargain.
 

Flagg the Wanderer

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As far as spending so much on WRs & TEs, that's just how the balance shifts around depending on your starter/depth and rookie/vet mix at different positions. Yeah, they spent the most on TEs in the NFL, and 3rd most on WRs because they're paying no true huge deals, but multiple veteran starter deals at both positions. But their RBs are pretty good, right? 31st in the NFL. And 27th in spending on QBs. So average together all their skill positions and it evens out pretty quickly. Those positions have everyone on rookie deals, plus Hoyer.

The balance rarely makes sense, and it's easy to pounce on that sort of thing because it can look crazy when a couple of our years or dead money years come together.
 

vertigho

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You're pro-Belichick yet repeatedly criticize decisions that he is ultimately responsible for, either directly or indirectly. How do you reconcile these conflicting beliefs?

Belichick approved those contracts. He reviewed them, he approved them. Those deals don't get done without his rubber-stamp. Cap hits vary in order to give the team financial flexibility; for whatever reason(s), they had a lightly-loaded first year and then pushed some money into 2022. My understanding is that those cap hits remain roughly the same in coming seasons, but the cap should scale considerably. Can you post these players' cap hits in 2023 and what the projected salary cap is?

If you're suggesting that Ziegler, McDaniels, and Caserio intentionally structured these contracts to sabotage the Patriots, that's utterly absurd and one would ask why Belichick, the ultimate authority for every decision the team makes from a football operations standpoint, approved those contracts.
 
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DropKickFlutie

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You're pro-Belichick yet repeatedly criticize decisions that he is ultimately responsible for, either directly or indirectly. How do you reconcile these conflicting beliefs?

Sounds like you might have difficulty dealing with nuance in real life.
 
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Flagg the Wanderer

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And while a lot can (and will) change, next year is shaping up to be a very nice year to have cap flexibility. Looks like a really nice FA crop, both at the high end and mid-grade.

Quentin Nelson
Bradley Chubb (could come on the cheap if he gets dinged again)
Jessie Bates
Deron Payne
Mike Gesicki
Dalton Shultz
Deonte Harris
AJ Green
Jack Conklin
Roger Saffold
Chris Lindstrom
Justin Pugh
Yannick Ngakoue
Tremaine Edmunds
Leighton Vander Esch
James Bradbury
 
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DropKickFlutie

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And while a lot can (and will) change, next year is shaping up to be a very nice year to have cap flexibility. Looks like a really nice FA crop, both at the high end and mid-grade.

Quentin Nelson
Bradley Chubb (could come on the cheap if he gets dinged again)
Jessie Bates
Deron Payne
Mike Gesicki
Dalton Shultz
Deonte Harris
AJ Green
Jack Conklin
Roger Saffold
Chris Lindstrom
Justin Pugh
Yannick Ngakoue
Tremaine Edmunds
Leighton Vander Esch
James Bradbury

Yes a lot of cap to sign players . So would not expect any comp pick if Wynn leaves.
 

chevss454

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A lot of good input above that either modifies or explains the OP.

One other thing should be looked at from another angle.
Warren Sharp opines that JC Jackson is gone because of those other contracts.
Is that true or false?
BB knew what Jackson's market would be and BB knew he wouldn't match it.
Look what the Chargers gave him: 5 years, $82.5M, $16.5M/year avg, $28M year 1, $40M guaranteed & $40M cash the first 2 years, $16.5M avg cap hit.

BB/Pats paid Jackson $5M for 4 years.
Chargers are paying $82.5M for 5 years.

Same player. This makes BB look like a genius in my eyes.

Warren Sharp is gambling advisor with a pretty good knack for picking winners. He made a ton of money by picking the Pats for 20 years. But he's another one of those guys who have an axe to grind against the Pats and BB because he believes, like some here, that Brady was responsible for the Pats' success. Sharp was once a great supporter of the Patriots and BB often using them as examples of the NFL doing the right things and doing those things the right way. He's done a 180 recently & he's making himself look like an idiot when it comes to BB and the Pats by contradicting good things he said over the last 20 years. His specialty is betting against the Vegas lines and winning. He has a website anyone can join for a fee to see his picks.
I was a subscriber 3-4 years ago.

 

Big/Sky/Fly

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And while a lot can (and will) change, next year is shaping up to be a very nice year to have cap flexibility. Looks like a really nice FA crop, both at the high end and mid-grade.

Quentin Nelson
Bradley Chubb (could come on the cheap if he gets dinged again)
Jessie Bates
Deron Payne
Mike Gesicki
Dalton Shultz
Deonte Harris
AJ Green
Jack Conklin
Roger Saffold
Chris Lindstrom
Justin Pugh
Yannick Ngakoue
Tremaine Edmunds
Leighton Vander Esch
James Bradbury
Yup. This is why next year the Pats will be a lot better. That and things SHOULD get better coaching wise. During a rebuild, it usually has to get worse before it gets better. Kinda like the process of the phoenix.
 

Big/Sky/Fly

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Last year later on in the season and in the playoffs I remember JC Jackson getting burned a few times. After seeing that, I wasn't as mad that he left. I still think that he's very good, but, not for that amount...
 

aloyouis

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Blood pressure rises when I see this name. Completely overrated. Godchaux is a stat padder of tackles, not stout in the run. Repeatedly pushed back last year. Does anyone remember a half dozen games last year of giving up 180+ opponent rushing yards.


Belichick disagrees 100%

What do you do for a living?
 

aloyouis

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As far as spending so much on WRs & TEs, that's just how the balance shifts around depending on your starter/depth and rookie/vet mix at different positions. Yeah, they spent the most on TEs in the NFL, and 3rd most on WRs because they're paying no true huge deals, but multiple veteran starter deals at both positions. But their RBs are pretty good, right? 31st in the NFL. And 27th in spending on QBs. So average together all their skill positions and it evens out pretty quickly. Those positions have everyone on rookie deals, plus Hoyer.

The balance rarely makes sense, and it's easy to pounce on that sort of thing because it can look crazy when a couple of our years or dead money years come together.

Don't sunshine on his canceled parade.
 
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