Warren Sharp Explains the Exploding Patriot Salary Cap Bomb Left by Ziegler/McDaniels

DarnSyd

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Other than the constant desire to be negative, what do you have to show that this even slightly true.

Show your work.
and perhaps do it without misstating basic facts like the man's age.
 

Big/Sky/Fly

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I know you were talking to the other guy, but I will say 71-yr-old BB seems even more hands off than usual. A bit concerning when the media asks him for specific takes on OLine players and he seems to honestly think it’s fine (not just the typical media-answer stonewalling)
Nike better straighten up asap! ;)
 
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DropKickFlutie

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Not every player here is a bad cap hole. A couple who seem overpaid look like Jonnu Smith, Agholor, Wynn, and Godchaux.


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chevss454

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Seems like he’s widely read. I get the sentiment to attack anyone who doesn’t drink Foxboro kool-aid, but it seems like a lot of people in the football industry read Warren Sharp’s content

He's a smart guy and he had a good streak at picking winning bets (mostly over-unders) but he's not perfect. He went on a big winning streak picking the Over when the rules kept changing to help the O. That streak gave him cred which he's still cashing in on. I made some cash off of his picks but there are others who are as good or better for less money. His faults are too much data, overthinking his own analysis and not giving coaching/scheme/game planning enough weight. I haven't subscribed for a few years but I'd loved to have read how wrong he was in his analysis of the Pats-Bills weather game last year. His game analysis is way too tedious, at least for me. I found myself reading the first paragraph and then skipping to "The Pick", then I'd weigh his picks against those of 2 or 3 other pick services. I wouldn't place a bet unless they all agreed and sometimes not even then. His absolute biggest fault in my eyes is that he likes to make his bets too early in the week. Not me. Things change quickly. Weather, injuries, players coming off injuries...omg, Covid was a killer for early betting. Me? Within 2 hours of game time.

What is "a lot" to you? Serious question. Gambling on games is forbidden in the NFL football industry. Gambling based on analytics is what Warren Sharp writes about. The 2 don't mix. Sharp isn't an X & O guy or a personnel guy except for the overlap of measured production as compared to other players without regard to skill set, coaching or match up. He's learned over the years but he still doesn't know enough to know what he doesn't know. I get that some may stray occasionally but not "a lot", since NFL people are all about Xs and Os and all about individual match ups and skill sets that come together in the perfect scheme to execute a perfect play.

In regard to your post immediately above this one, context is important since we can all agree players make too much money.
Why not compare those salaries you think are overpaid to others in the league at the same position.

Agholor's salary comes in 32nd in the league. 1/3 the salary of Tyreek Hill's $30M. NFL Rankings
Wynn's salary comes in 21st in the league. 1/6 the salary of Ramczyk's $19M. NFL Rankings
Godchaux's salary comes in 10th in the league. 1/3 the salary of Donald's $31.6M. NFL Rankings
Jonnu Smith comes in 6th. 20% less than Kelce and Kittle's $15M. NFL Rankings

Maybe Smith is overpaid but let's see how he performs this year before we make that call for sure.
Besides, BB had to overpay WRs and TEs to attract players to the team since we didn't have an established QB.

The rest of the contracts you outline above seem like bargains to me, even Wynn's.
 
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DropKickFlutie

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He's a smart guy and he had a good streak at picking winning bets (mostly over-unders) but he's not perfect. He went on a big winning streak picking the Over when the rules kept changing to help the O. That streak gave him cred which he's still cashing in on. I made some cash off of his picks but there are others who are as good or better for less money. His faults are too much data, overthinking his own analysis and not giving coaching/scheme/game planning enough weight. I haven't subscribed for a few years but I'd loved to have read how wrong he was in his analysis of the Pats-Bills weather game last year. His game analysis is way too tedious, at least for me. I found myself reading the first paragraph and then skipping to "The Pick", then I'd weigh his picks against those of 2 or 3 other pick services. I wouldn't place a bet unless they all agreed and sometimes not even then. His absolute biggest fault in my eyes is that he likes to make his bets too early in the week. Not me. Things change quickly. Weather, injuries, players coming off injuries...omg, Covid was a killer for early betting. Me? Within 2 hours of game time.

What is "a lot" to you? Serious question. Gambling on games is forbidden in the NFL football industry. Gambling based on analytics is what Warren Sharp writes about. The 2 don't mix. Sharp isn't an X & O guy or a personnel guy except for the overlap of measured production as compared to other players without regard to skill set, coaching or match up. He's learned over the years but he still doesn't know enough to know what he doesn't know. I get that some may stray occasionally but not "a lot", since NFL people are all about Xs and Os and all about individual match ups and skill sets that come together in the perfect scheme to execute a perfect play.

In regard to your post immediately above this one, context is important since we can all agree players make too much money.
Why not compare those salaries you think are overpaid to others in the league at the same position.

Agholor's salary comes in 32nd in the league. 1/3 the salary of Tyreek Hill's $30M. NFL Rankings
Wynn's salary comes in 21st in the league. 1/6 the salary of Ramczyk's $19M. NFL Rankings
Godchaux's salary comes in 10th in the league. 1/3 the salary of Donald's $31.6M. NFL Rankings
Jonnu Smith comes in 6th. 20% less than Kelce and Kittle's $15M. NFL Rankings

Maybe Smith is overpaid but let's see how he performs this year before we make that call for sure.
Besides, BB had to overpay WRs and TEs to attract players to the team since we didn't have an established QB.

The rest of the contracts you outline above seem like bargains to me, even Wynn's.

Sharp isn’t a major X’s and O’s guy but he does generate a lot of basic analysis of team tendencies and success on various parts of the field, that can help determine which team has an advantage.


The paragraph comparing to the highest salary at the position, how does this matter without factoring in production ? Godchaux failed at anchoring last year and gave up a half dozen 180+ rushing yard games, but it’s okay because Aaron Donald makes more money? Those players underperformed and thus are overpaid. An offensive tackle might command certain dollars but Wynn is both injury prone as well as underwhelming when he does play, so not worth $10.4M. Agholor and Jonnu are sub-500 yard pass catchers with $14-15M cap hits. And overpaying on pass catchers in aggregate $20M more than the next team is also grossly overpaying. It will get magnified if the defense doesn’t hold up. Not having an elite CB1 for the first time since 2013 will hurt, as BB’s championship defenses have always needed an elite CB1. And going with no-name linebackers and no major changes to the DLine, partly due to zero cap space to fix these positions, all give reasons to worry.
 
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Grogan

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Belichick disagrees 100%

What do you do for a living?
Bill is also the entire reason the spending spree was necessary to begin with, he's not perfect. You miss on two tight ends, two linebackers, a 1st round wr, and a second round corner back, all in a period if two drafts and you end up having to over pay just to get back to even.
 

aloyouis

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Sharp isn’t a major X’s and O’s guy but he does generate a lot of basic analysis of team tendencies and success on various parts of the field, that can help determine which team has an advantage.


The paragraph comparing to the highest salary at the position, how does this matter without factoring in production ? Godchaux failed at anchoring last year and gave up a half dozen 180+ rushing yard games, but it’s okay because Aaron Donald makes more money? Those players underperformed and thus are overpaid. An offensive tackle might command certain dollars but Wynn is both injury prone as well as underwhelming when he does play, so not worth $10.4M. Agholor and Jonnu are sub-500 yard pass catchers with $14-15M cap hits. And overpaying on pass catchers in aggregate $20M more than the next team is also grossly overpaying. It will get magnified if the defense doesn’t hold up. Not having an elite CB1 for the first time since 2013 will hurt, as BB’s championship defenses have always needed an elite CB1. And going with no-name linebackers and no major changes to the DLine, partly due to zero cap space to fix these positions, all give reasons to worry.

Do you realize that you are demanding that we take your TV ONLY analysis over that of the very coaches that coach him? Over the GOAT HC of all time? What team meetings have you attended. What instruction pre-game have you given to Godchaux that he failed to do and for heavan's sake how the FUCK is he responsible for what the defense gave up in rushing yards?

 
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DropKickFlutie

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Bill is also the entire reason the spending spree was necessary to begin with, he's not perfect. You miss on two tight ends, two linebackers, a 1st round wr, and a second round corner back, all in a period if two drafts and you end up having to over pay just to get back to even.

That 2019 draft was horrifically bad. Eerily similar to when McDaniels pushed for terrible WR/TE/RB picks a dozen years prior with Chad Jackson, Dave Thomas, and Laurence Maroney. I still think BB is the best overall especially with how often he hits big on UDFA and low picks, but his period from 2013-2019 with Caserio, McDaniels, Ziegler was terrible. His elite GM periods were 2001-2004 and 2009-2012, a lot of Patriot HOF players acquired then when Pioli, Dimitroff, Reese, and O’Brien were on staff. Good riddance to college roommates from John Carroll
 

Flagg the Wanderer

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Godcheaux is not a true zero/NT/Ted Washington type, but he is very effective 2-gapping. He adds the versatility to play a number of different techniques along the DL effectively. You lose some margin of elite specialization, but gain the uncertainty of the opposing offense in terms of how he's deployed and what he's going to do on any given play.

Seymour was great, and for my money Wilfork was better. But I've always been a big fan of Ty Warren, who was an unsung hero of that DL. He was rarely dominant, but always tough, always where he was supposed to be, and could make teams pay if they focused too much on Seymour and Wilfork. He kept blockers off of the LBs like an OL protects running backs. If the LBs made their plays, they looked like stars. If they didn't, it looked like Warren was getting beat and overwhelmed in the wash.

It's a different position/set of techniques for Godcheaux, but he's a similar player. When he's playing a true zero, yes, he's generally (not always) supposed to anchor. When he's asked to do this he sometimes gets moved, but generally he holds up pretty well. But more often he's being asked to "create piles" - to make a large, messy area where it's impossible to run. That doesn't mean not to get moved off his spot. The mess may slide laterally or even back a bit - that's okay. It's on the LBs to track and fill the gaps on either side of it. Last year, that was not happening. Bentley was...fine. He was passable. Hightower was awful. KVN was awful by December. Collins was...you know, he was Collins. Occasionally WTFawesome, more often in the wrong position, but usually just a tick slow but compensating with athleticism. But Hightower...slow to the holes and weak when he was there, so late he was often arm tackling and either missing the tackle or getting dragged. But when it goes was badly it looks like it's on the DL who appears to be getting bullied. That's not necessarily what's actually happening.

That's what I saw a lot of last year. Therefore, when Belichick watches the games, watches the tapes, and responds by getting rid of the starting linebackers, extending Godcheaux, and making a point of calling him "one of the best DL in the league," it makes sense to me. Is he top 5? No. Top 10-15? Very probably, for what Bill+Jerod+Lipps are doing.

Your "no-name LBs" aren't no names. They've had trouble with injuries. I've pushed Jennings hard, even when everyone had forgotten about him and were on the McGrone and Perkins train. There's a reason he was picked early even considering injuries. Yeah, he's a big thumper. Yeah, he's flashed a bit as a pass rusher. But you know what he can do, at that size? Defend the pass. He lead 'Bama his senior year in PBU...as a >260lbs outside linebacker! People were all "only 6.5 sacks," but didn't take stock to realize how multiple this guy was. Watch him develop. He should be everything KVN was at his peak, except 15 LBs heavier.
McMillian is a player. Bentley is...still okay. Judon is a stud. Uche looks like he has his uses, and Wilson is quick-twitch af, and can be a weapon if he can get his head on straight.
 
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DropKickFlutie

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Godcheaux is not a true zero/NT/Ted Washington type, but he is very effective 2-gapping. He adds the versatility to play a number of different techniques along the DL effectively. You lose some margin of elite specialization, but gain the uncertainty of the opposing offense in terms of how he's deployed and what he's going to do on any given play.

Seymour was great, and for my money Wilfork was better. But I've always been a big fan of Ty Warren, who was an unsung hero of that DL. He was rarely dominant, but always tough, always where he was supposed to be, and could make teams pay if they focused too much on Seymour and Wilfork. He kept blockers off of the LBs like an OL protects running backs. If the LBs made their plays, they looked like stars. If they didn't, it looked like Warren was getting beat and overwhelmed in the wash.

It's a different position/set of techniques for Godcheaux, but he's a similar player. When he's playing a true zero, yes, he's generally (not always) supposed to anchor. When he's asked to do this he sometimes gets moved, but generally he holds up pretty well. But more often he's being asked to "create piles" - to make a large, messy area where it's impossible to run. That doesn't mean not to get moved off his spot. The mess may slide laterally or even back a bit - that's okay. It's on the LBs to track and fill the gaps on either side of it. Last year, that was not happening. Bentley was...fine. He was passable. Hightower was awful. KVN was awful by December. Collins was...you know, he was Collins. Occasionally WTFawesome, more often in the wrong position, but usually just a tick slow but compensating with athleticism. But Hightower...slow to the holes and weak when he was there, so late he was often arm tackling and either missing the tackle or getting dragged. But when it goes was badly it looks like it's on the DL who appears to be getting bullied. That's not necessarily what's actually happening.

That's what I saw a lot of last year. Therefore, when Belichick watches the games, watches the tapes, and responds by getting rid of the starting linebackers, extending Godcheaux, and making a point of calling him "one of the best DL in the league," it makes sense to me. Is he top 5? No. Top 10-15? Very probably, for what Bill+Jerod+Lipps are doing.

Your "no-name LBs" aren't no names. They've had trouble with injuries. I've pushed Jennings hard, even when everyone had forgotten about him and were on the McGrone and Perkins train. There's a reason he was picked early even considering injuries. Yeah, he's a big thumper. Yeah, he's flashed a bit as a pass rusher. But you know what he can do, at that size? Defend the pass. He lead 'Bama his senior year in PBU...as a >260lbs outside linebacker! People were all "only 6.5 sacks," but didn't take stock to realize how multiple this guy was. Watch him develop. He should be everything KVN was at his peak, except 15 LBs heavier.
McMillian is a player. Bentley is...still okay. Judon is a stud. Uche looks like he has his uses, and Wilson is quick-twitch af, and can be a weapon if he can get his head on straight.

Excellent post as always.

1. Where would you play Godchaux then? I like maximizing Barmore and Guy’s snaps on the field (I think both Barmore and Guy are superior players to Godchaux). Barmore should lead the DLine in snaps. The Pats’ winning streak last year was with Barmore, not Godchaux, leading in DLine snaps in the win streak. Who plays NT then. Carl Davis? They’ll probably end up in non optimal configurations because Godchaux is so overpaid they have to put him on the field.

2. For Bentley, not a fan. Some of those games last year, you see the defense roasted for 200 or 250+ rushing yards and too often it was the RB blowing by Godchaux plus Bentley. Bentley takes horrible angles. Reminds me too much of the sad days of Gary Guyton and Monty Beisel repeatedly taking bad angles and getting roasted in the run game. Am concerned the defense could be as frustrating as those 2005 or 2009 seasons as well (weak run defense, and no elite corners. Possibly a lot of soft zone corner play giving up easy 3rd downs, combined with the inability to stop short yardage runs)
 

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Pats just adjusted another bad contract after taking the pain of adjusting Godchaux. Just Converted 8M of Jonnu’s salary to a signing bonus and opened up 5M in cap room

That's an interesting perspective. You think they "adjusted" Godcheaux to "take the pain" of a bad contract for him? Wow. Yeah, when you think you overpaid a player you definitely guarantee him much more money, extend the contract term, and you absolutely lock yourself into him so that you can't save any money by cutting him, even the following year!

The extension (not "adjustment") they gave to Godcheaux was a contract you give to someone that is a vital cog in your defense. Someone that is accomplishing what they are assigned, and gives you confidence that you can design everything else around the assumption that they will be successful in what they're asked to do.
 
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DropKickFlutie

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That's an interesting perspective. You think they "adjusted" Godcheaux to "take the pain" of a bad contract for him? Wow. Yeah, when you think you overpaid a player you definitely guarantee him much more money, extend the contract term, and you absolutely lock yourself into him so that you can't save any money by cutting him, even the following year!

The extension (not "adjustment") they gave to Godcheaux was a contract you give to someone that is a vital cog in your defense. Someone that is accomplishing what they are assigned, and gives you confidence that you can design everything else around the assumption that they will be successful in what they're asked to do.

Not always. Their cap was left with zero room. I think Groh is doing the best he can with a bad cap situation this year. Just like giving Jonnu a guaranteed signing bonus isn’t ideal nor some sort of a reward for his play last year.

I don’t think anyone on this defense except for the safeties and Barmore can be considered a key cog on this defense, especially a defense that didn’t force Buffalo to punt all game in the playoff loss. Godchaux is a stat inflating DLineman. Even in Miami this guy was putting up tackle numbers and then you see every NFL unit he’s been on has been poor against the run.
 

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Excellent post as always.

1. Where would you play Godchaux then? I like maximizing Barmore and Guy’s snaps on the field (I think both Barmore and Guy are superior players to Godchaux). Barmore should lead the DLine in snaps. The Pats’ winning streak last year was with Barmore, not Godchaux, leading in DLine snaps in the win streak. Who plays NT then. Carl Davis? They’ll probably end up in non optimal configurations because Godchaux is so overpaid they have to put him on the field.

2. For Bentley, not a fan. Some of those games last year, you see the defense roasted for 200 or 250+ rushing yards and too often it was the RB blowing by Godchaux plus Bentley. Bentley takes horrible angles. Reminds me too much of the sad days of Gary Guyton and Monty Beisel repeatedly taking bad angles and getting roasted in the run game. Am concerned the defense could be as frustrating as those 2005 or 2009 seasons as well (weak run defense, and no elite corners. Possibly a lot of soft zone corner play giving up easy 3rd downs, combined with the inability to stop short yardage runs)
Guy is a JAG+, and reliable.
Godcheaux is not a superstar, but is a plus player for sure. He's going to be at his best in the range between the outside shoulder of the center and shading the inside shoulder of the OT, and it should be a variety within that range.

Barmore + Godcheaux + Guy with Jennings & Judon at OLBs should be a really nice 5-across.

As to Bentley, I agree with a lot of this. I don't like him, but he's...fine. He's not perfect and will make occasional mental mistakes, and is just a touch slow to react sometimes. But one thing I realized from last year was just how bad Hightower was. Often Bentley's bad angles were a product of him covering for Hightower who was totally out of position, whether by slow reaction time, slow-footedness, or getting blocked out of the play. I couldn't believe he wasn't benched on several occasions, and I can only assume it was because he's just Hightower. But when Hightower is late reacting and allows himself to get sealed off by the OG, Bentley looks bad, late, and out of position in missing a tackle from his position two gaps away protecting the cutback lanes. And when he cheats a smidge to cover for this later, he gets burned on that cutback. One thing leads to another.

So when I say he's "...fine," understand that I'm indicating that I'm accepting the evaluation Bill is giving him, and that a lot of the failings I'm seeing in his game are stemming from failures around him. It's that sort of thing - evaluating a player when players he relies on are failing around him - that is almost impossible to do from where we sit. TV angles aside, without knowing the relevant assignments and reads it's nearly an impossible task.

But Bentley as a core defensive leader? No. He'll be fine, and I understand he's a great leader and tone setter or something like that, so as long as we can get him off the field for passing downs and he doesn't terribly slow up McMillian and Wilson's development by hogging the PT, I'm fine with it. He's...fine.
 
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Flagg the Wanderer

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Not always. Their cap was left with zero room. I think Groh is doing the best he can with a bad cap situation this year. Just like giving Jonnu a guaranteed signing bonus isn’t ideal nor some sort of a reward for his play last year.
Without seeing the details, they didn't extend Jonnu, and didn't give him more money. They just converted salary to bonus, this year only, to spread out the hit.

That's a monumental difference.

I don’t think anyone on this defense except for the safeties and Barmore can be considered a key cog on this defense, especially a defense that didn’t force Buffalo to punt all game in the playoff loss. Godchaux is a stat inflating DLineman. Even in Miami this guy was putting up tackle numbers and then you see every NFL unit he’s been on has been poor against the run.
He's not stat-inflating, he's versatile. He's not eating up ball carriers that are diverted to him from unsung heroes around him. He's doing the diverting, and stretching his area of responsibility to notch a few additional pelts.
 

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Bill is also the entire reason the spending spree was necessary to begin with, he's not perfect. You miss on two tight ends, two linebackers, a 1st round wr, and a second round corner back, all in a period if two drafts and you end up having to over pay just to get back to even.
I agree that Bill is not perfect. Do you think there is a coach or GM that is perfect?
 
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