Week 5 2022 Lions at Patriots

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chevss454

chevss454

Data-driven decision-making is science and art.
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View: https://twitter.com/MaizeCrusader/status/1577298584193613824


View: https://twitter.com/OptaSTATS/status/1576718548466302977


Through 4 games:
Most Points Scored: Detroit Lions (140)
Most Points Allowed: Detroit Lions (141)
They are on pace to be the 5th highest scoring offense in NFL history and they’re 1-3

This should be a fun "get right" game for the offense. The Patriots open up as a -2.5 favorite at home vs the Detroit Lions on Sunday.
 
The Lions are dangerous. Their defense is talented, but streaky AF. Year after year of picking in the top five or top 10 every round has built up a critical mass of talon that is hard to ignore.

The defense is terrible in terms of results:
  • Every opponent Detroit has faced has scored more points against the Lions then against any other team that they faced, except Washington, who scored one more point against Jacksonville.
  • Seattle scored more points against the Lions then against all of their other opponents combined... And we're in victory formation at the Lyons 35 at the end of the game.
  • In 16 quarters of football, opponents have scored more than 10 points against the Lions in 9 of them, more than half the time. In the other seven quarters they have allowed zero total points.

Hutchinson is probably more hype than real, at least for now. Who made a big deal of his three sack game, which is great for anyone, and especially a rookie, but his play wasn't as good as his stat line. He's dangerous, but looks subject to influence blocks and intelligent line play.

CB Okudah, on the other hand, is probably better than his reputation. The third overall pick a few years back was pretty much terrible as a rookie and quickly injured in his second year. But this year so far he's looking pretty good. The Lions haven't been afraid to put him on the opponent's best receiver and let him do his thing. He's not a speedster; he gets help over the top sometimes, and sometimes gets a little lazy when he has it. But his results overall have been really good, and lost in the overall defensive mess. They put him on Jefferson in the Vikings game, and gave him help over the top about half the time. Jefferson finished 3/14/0 on 6 targets.
 
chevss454 said:
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View: https://twitter.com/MaizeCrusader/status/1577298584193613824


View: https://twitter.com/OptaSTATS/status/1576718548466302977


Through 4 games:
Most Points Scored: Detroit Lions (140)
Most Points Allowed: Detroit Lions (141)
They are on pace to be the 5th highest scoring offense in NFL history and they’re 1-3

This should be a fun "get right" game for the offense. The Patriots open up as a -2.5 favorite at home vs the Detroit Lions on Sunday.
Click to expand...


We will be up at MSU on Saturday for the upcoming Ohio State debacle, but coming home after the game (often we spend the night at MSU) to host 20 or so Lions fans at our home for the game on Sunday. Should be fun. The Lions will test the D bigly. Does anyone know what Swifts status is? He was out last week of rte Lions.
 
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There's a new OL. #68 but unidentified so far.

Garrett Gilbert is practicing.
 
Ragnow is an excellent center. If he can't go that's a big deal.

This game has a feel of one of those games where an offense is surprising and flying high early in the year, Belichick "solves" it, and the offense never recovers.
 
Detroit is not a cake walk by any means. They can put up points. It's hard to tell who will play at QB given Mac did practice a little.
 
And now you can see why I was asking if Swift is active for the game this week. He was out last week.


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aloyouis said:
And now you can see why I was asking if Swift is active for the game this week. He was out last week.


View attachment 12837
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That's an interesting chart. A few thoughts: If Ragnow is out that chart will shift left. And certain types of backs will perform better (vertically) on the left side of that chart, others on the right. Marshall Faulk, for example, was not a short-yardage back you'd want to use on five plays against 8 in the box, but was lethal going wide, in space, or with cutback creases.

I'd LOVE to see that broken into runs that fell across that spectrum horizontally for a single back.
 
Big/Sky/Fly said:
Number #1 offense...and one of worst in defense.
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A projection to 16 games would mean the Lions allowed the most points in NFL history...with a 31 point cushion, almost an entire additional average game's worth of points.

If the Lions defense was an offense, a 16 game season would make them the #4 scoring offense of all time, and they'd only miss #3 by one point.

...and that's against Philly, Washington, Minnesota, and Seattle who, if you exclude their game against Detroit, would be ranked 8th, 31st, 16th, and 30th in NFL in PPG, respectively.
 
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